LTA's NCAAF Plays

[salvador_7764]

Kramer would you play it to 70.5

[Love The Action]

Wow, big steam on South Florida and the over in tonight's game. Still, I view this game as a coinflip on both the side and total and will pass. Good luck to those with action tonight.

[No coincidences]

Wow, big steam on South Florida and the over in tonight's game. Still, I view this game as a coinflip on both the side and total and will pass. Good luck to those with action tonight.

It's because BJ Daniels is starting.

[Krazymojo]

got 3x on at 70(-120)

[YouHave2outs]

Wow, big steam on South Florida and the over in tonight's game. Still, I view this game as a coinflip on both the side and total and will pass. Good luck to those with action tonight.

[sportfan]

NIU over is 71 at some books now

[blackeyeshamus]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Northern Illinois/Ohio over (69) 3.5x (Locked)

I was planning to play this for 6x at the opener of 66. However, that number jumped up to 70 late Monday before my locals offered NCAAF totals. Last night, one of my locals opened at 69.5 and today my other opened at 69. I jumped on the 69 for 3.5x and may add more before kickoff. However, this will not be a 6x play because I lost out on those early 66's. I have this one set at 72, so we are still getting a FG of value even at 69 and I love this play. I will give you a full writeup and explain why this is one of my biggest plays all year later tonight. I also really like NIU as I have them set at -6, but will stick to the over for now. I am rolling with the over for 3.5x now and maybe more down the line. Good luck.

good luck tonight, LTA!
I'm following the total, but I teased it down with the under in OK/OKST:
6.5 pt teaser NILL/OHIO 64 OVER and OK/OKST 78 UNDER @ -120 1x
like all my plays, I'm lovin' it right now... but time will tell. thanks for the leans,
and all the hard work! good luck tonight!

[GoggsViggs]

LTA, bro thanks for the kind words. My dog was hit with HGE and lost a lot of blood. But I got him to hospital in time so the tough bastard looks like he'll pull thru. Hope I can take him home today. When isaw ur note, it helped so I wanted to thank you. You're a class act. keep up the good work.

Go NIU!

[No coincidences]

Where are you seeing this opened at 66?

[BiffTFinancial]

Where are you seeing this opened at 66?

probably with his local.

[No coincidences]

probably with his local.

I see.

I've got an opener of 69, but I wanted to see if that was right or not.

[upscope]

I see.

I've got an opener of 69, but I wanted to see if that was right or not.

Same here....I don't even know how a local can be that far off??

[gilbert91016]

Where are you seeing this opened at 66?

I think BM. Open at 66

[Love The Action]

Where are you seeing this opened at 66?

Bookmaker, Cris, Betonline, etc.

The books that release totals early on Monday (as opposed to Pinny, 5D, Greek, etc. which generally wait until late Monday or Tuesday) all opened at that lower number and all of them got hit on the over or otherwise decided to raise the number at approximately the same time at or around 5:30 pm Monday evening according to SI.

[Love The Action]

Good luck LTA Let's get the cash tonight

Same to you Abe!

[Love The Action]

got 3x on at 70(-120)

Not the best price in the world, but it's already up to 71.5 this morning

[Love The Action]

good luck tonight, LTA!
I'm following the total, but I teased it down with the under in OK/OKST:
6.5 pt teaser NILL/OHIO 64 OVER and OK/OKST 78 UNDER @ -120 1x
like all my plays, I'm lovin' it right now... but time will tell. thanks for the leans,
and all the hard work! good luck tonight!

[Love The Action]

probably with his local.

No way. If I could have gotten 66 with my local, I would have bet the house!

Check out the opener at BM, Cris and Betonline to name a few....GL Biff!

[Love The Action]

Same here....I don't even know how a local can be that far off??

A bunch of outlets opened at 66....you don't even need to SI to check it. Go to SBR odds and check out the opener for BM, Cris and Betonline to name a few. All of the books that open their totals early, opened at that smaller number and got hit with simultaneous action on the over.

[Love The Action]

I think BM. Open at 66

Also Cris and Betonline. A few others as well...

[cohbull]

Late to the game so to speak...no play @ 71.5?

[Love The Action]

Late to the game so to speak...no play @ 71.5?

I have this one set at 72, so there's really no value left. With that said, I expect this one to fly into the high 70's or low 80's with NIU scoring over 42 and Ohio around 35. GL on whatever you choose.

[Love The Action]

Nice...up to 72 now at Pinny.

[Donnie Brasco]

Hate to say it bro but i am totally opposite here:
Ohio +3.5 2x
Ohio ML 0.5 x
Under 72 1x
Best of luck to all!

[Love The Action]

Nice...up to 72 now at Pinny.

Pinny just added the hook and it's up to 72.5...let's hope it keeps on going.

[Love The Action]

Hate to say it bro but i am totally opposite here:
Ohio +3.5 2x
Ohio ML 0.5 x
Under 72 1x
Best of luck to all!

GL Donnie! What's your take on the game...why Ohio and the under?

[Fernburn74]

my local is stil 71 i think that this still goes over number about u LTA>????

[upscope]

Nice...up to 72 now at Pinny.

Nice....I have quite a bit riding on this game @ 69.5......more than I'm comfortable with....so I'm looking to throw a little back & go for the middle. I'm gonna wait little while longer though. How high you think it goes??

[Love The Action]

my local is stil 71 i think that this still goes over number about u LTA>????

All that matters is what you believe! But yes, I think it goes over 71. Regardless, you are getting a good number in comparison to the widely available market with with everyone else at 72 or more. That's pretty significant. GL

[Trivial]

Nice. This closer will be very nice to see. Thinking of a parlay of NIU and over 69.5. It is the only way to get any value to add to my existing 4 unit play to make it a 6 unit play.

[Love The Action]

Nice....I have quite a bit riding on this game @ 69.5......more than I'm comfortable with....so I'm looking to throw a little back & go for the middle. I'm gonna wait little while longer though. How high you think it goes??

73 is the most important key total number in the 70's. If it goes above 73, I would be shocked and would probably add more to this play. Therefore, if you are looking to middle, you should monitor the line and wait for 73. Once it hits 73, that's when the sharp action will buy back and you might see this close in the 71 or 72 range from late under money. Remember, however, if you see this one go above 73, I would recommend that you let it ride. If it goes above 73 with no buyback, the over would be an unbelievably strong play. Good luck.

[sportfan]

would you middle it? i meant 69 -73 , 4 points is alot

[Donnie Brasco]

GL Donnie! What's your take on the game...why Ohio and the under?

Well i had posted in ur forum earlier in the week that i had capped this one and came up with ohio as the fave. My numbers were quite diff than urs. Ohio -3/66, ohio winning a 35-30ish kinda affair. I looked at the advanced stats and the offenses were comfortably close to me. The defenses was where i found the advantage. Ohio gives up 10 fewer pts per game. I am also a contrarian by nature and with close to 70% on niu, the line dropped from 4.5 to 3 at some shops. Vegas knows niu is a public darling. People are salivating over niu and over. I like ohio and under because ohio wont let harnish run wild. I am probably wrong bro! whats ur take on houston/usm? I think 14 is crazy!

[Love The Action]

Well i had posted in ur forum earlier in the week that i had capped this one and came up with ohio as the fave. My numbers were quite diff than urs. Ohio -3/66, ohio winning a 35-30ish kinda affair. I looked at the advanced stats and the offenses were comfortably close to me. The defenses was where i found the advantage. Ohio gives up 10 fewer pts per game. I am also a contrarian by nature and with close to 70% on niu, the line dropped from 4.5 to 3 at some shops. Vegas knows niu is a public darling. People are salivating over niu and over. I like ohio and under because ohio wont let harnish run wild. I am probably wrong bro! whats ur take on houston/usm? I think 14 is crazy!

Yeah I saw that and responded. In your original post, you stated that you were basing your calculations on a perceived Ohio home field advantage. However, Ohio is not playing at home as this game is being played on a neutral location at Ford Field in Detroit. My response asked what your numbers would be without the Ohio home field advantage since they are not actually playing at home. Did you ever recalculate to take into account the neutral field?

Also, just an FYI, while NIU is a popular play as 70%, the total has split action with slightly more bets on the under (action is 49/51) right now. Therefore, I don't think it's accurate to say the the public is "salivating" on the over when there is split action.

I agree with your assessment on SoMiss/Houston. I think 14 is a little high, however, Houston is a solid home team. I think the under warrants some attention considering many of the same factors on which I based my play on the Houston/Tulsa under a few weeks back are present in that game. SoMiss has an underrated defense that might be able to limit Houston just enough to keep this one under. Not sure though, I have that one on the schedule to cap in-depth tonight.

Should be a good game tonight...really looking forward to it and feel super confident in my plays. Good luck Donnie (although not too much )

[Love The Action]

would you middle it? i meant 69 -73 , 4 points is alot

No. I'm not going to arb out of one of my most confident plays of the whole season. I'm on the over 100%.
GL