Kramer would you play it to 70.5
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Wow, big steam on South Florida and the over in tonight's game. Still, I view this game as a coinflip on both the side and total and will pass. Good luck to those with action tonight.
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got 3x on at 70(-120)Comment -
NIU over is 71 at some books nowComment -
good luck tonight, LTA!
I'm following the total, but I teased it down with the under in OK/OKST:
6.5 pt teaser NILL/OHIO 64 OVER and OK/OKST 78 UNDER @ -120 1x
like all my plays, I'm lovin' it right now... but time will tell. thanks for the leans,
and all the hard work! good luck tonight!Comment -
LTA, bro thanks for the kind words. My dog was hit with HGE and lost a lot of blood. But I got him to hospital in time so the tough bastard looks like he'll pull thru. Hope I can take him home today. When isaw ur note, it helped so I wanted to thank you. You're a class act. keep up the good work.
Go NIU!
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Where are you seeing this opened at 66?Comment -
Bookmaker, Cris, Betonline, etc.
The books that release totals early on Monday (as opposed to Pinny, 5D, Greek, etc. which generally wait until late Monday or Tuesday) all opened at that lower number and all of them got hit on the over or otherwise decided to raise the number at approximately the same time at or around 5:30 pm Monday evening according to SI.Comment -
A bunch of outlets opened at 66....you don't even need to SI to check it. Go to SBR odds and check out the opener for BM, Cris and Betonline to name a few. All of the books that open their totals early, opened at that smaller number and got hit with simultaneous action on the over.Comment -
Late to the game so to speak...no play @ 71.5?Comment -
Nice...up to 72 now at Pinny.
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Hate to say it bro but i am totally opposite here:
Ohio +3.5 2x
Ohio ML 0.5 x
Under 72 1x
Best of luck to all!Comment -
my local is stil 71 i think that this still goes over number about u LTA>????Comment -
Nice. This closer will be very nice to see. Thinking of a parlay of NIU and over 69.5. It is the only way to get any value to add to my existing 4 unit play to make it a 6 unit play.Comment -
73 is the most important key total number in the 70's. If it goes above 73, I would be shocked and would probably add more to this play. Therefore, if you are looking to middle, you should monitor the line and wait for 73. Once it hits 73, that's when the sharp action will buy back and you might see this close in the 71 or 72 range from late under money. Remember, however, if you see this one go above 73, I would recommend that you let it ride. If it goes above 73 with no buyback, the over would be an unbelievably strong play. Good luck.
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would you middle it? i meant 69 -73 , 4 points is alotComment -
Well i had posted in ur forum earlier in the week that i had capped this one and came up with ohio as the fave. My numbers were quite diff than urs. Ohio -3/66, ohio winning a 35-30ish kinda affair. I looked at the advanced stats and the offenses were comfortably close to me. The defenses was where i found the advantage. Ohio gives up 10 fewer pts per game. I am also a contrarian by nature and with close to 70% on niu, the line dropped from 4.5 to 3 at some shops. Vegas knows niu is a public darling. People are salivating over niu and over. I like ohio and under because ohio wont let harnish run wild. I am probably wrong bro! whats ur take on houston/usm? I think 14 is crazy!
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Yeah I saw that and responded. In your original post, you stated that you were basing your calculations on a perceived Ohio home field advantage. However, Ohio is not playing at home as this game is being played on a neutral location at Ford Field in Detroit. My response asked what your numbers would be without the Ohio home field advantage since they are not actually playing at home. Did you ever recalculate to take into account the neutral field?Well i had posted in ur forum earlier in the week that i had capped this one and came up with ohio as the fave. My numbers were quite diff than urs. Ohio -3/66, ohio winning a 35-30ish kinda affair. I looked at the advanced stats and the offenses were comfortably close to me. The defenses was where i found the advantage. Ohio gives up 10 fewer pts per game. I am also a contrarian by nature and with close to 70% on niu, the line dropped from 4.5 to 3 at some shops. Vegas knows niu is a public darling. People are salivating over niu and over. I like ohio and under because ohio wont let harnish run wild. I am probably wrong bro! whats ur take on houston/usm? I think 14 is crazy!
Also, just an FYI, while NIU is a popular play as 70%, the total has split action with slightly more bets on the under (action is 49/51) right now. Therefore, I don't think it's accurate to say the the public is "salivating" on the over when there is split action.
I agree with your assessment on SoMiss/Houston. I think 14 is a little high, however, Houston is a solid home team. I think the under warrants some attention considering many of the same factors on which I based my play on the Houston/Tulsa under a few weeks back are present in that game. SoMiss has an underrated defense that might be able to limit Houston just enough to keep this one under. Not sure though, I have that one on the schedule to cap in-depth tonight.
Should be a good game tonight...really looking forward to it and feel super confident in my plays. Good luck Donnie (although not too much
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