LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Love The Action]

Hang in there LTA can still give up 10 pts and WIN!

9:13 in the third, run run run the ball, defense has been steller giving up only 3 fg's

Can see a 35-9 finish!

I like your positivity!

i need some positivity in that SoMiss/Houston game too! SoMiss just blocked a punt for a TD. Where the hell were all of these defensive and special teams scores last night in the NIU game

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Northern Illinois/Ohio over (69) 4x (Locked) LOSS

Play #2

Northern Illinois (-3) 1x (Locked) PUSH

Play #3

Northern Illinois/Ohio 2h over (33)(-105) 2x (Locked) LOSS

Play #4

Uconn/Cincinnati under (48) 1x (Locked)

You one team with four straight overs in Uconn going against a team with four straight unders in Cinci. However, if you look at the Uconn games that have gone over, you will know that they have been scoring through defense and special teams. Those types of scores cannot continue on a consistent basis, especially against a team like Cincy who has solid special teams and will look to run the ball today. I think this game stays under the posted total because of quarterback play. I expect both teams to limit the pass plays in this game because that gives them the best chance to win. I do not have much confidence in the converted wide receiver in Cinci's Munchie Legroux and McEntee is still a bit raw to air it out against this Bearcat defense. Both defenses play well against the run with Uconn ranking 16th in the country in rush defense S+P+ and Cincy 45th. I think we see a classic Big East under here and once I was able to cover the key number of 48, the seventh most common final score in NCAAF, I had to lock this one up. I have this one set at 45 and we're getting a full FG of value, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

SoMiss/Houston under (74.5) 1x (Locked)

The buyback started and Pinny has started juicing the under so, I locked it up at 74.5. I would recommend this play at 73 or better, but I would not recommend it below 73. I have this one set at 70 and this is the exact type of game that has seen Houston games stay under the posted total. If you go back through Houston's schedule, whenever they have faced a top 40 defense in advanced stats such as Tulsa or SMU, the game has stayed under 65 points. In addition, even though SoMiss has a solid offense, Houston's defense has played very well in the last six or so games this season. We have 80%+ of all bets on this over so I think this provides us with a nice public fade opportunity. This one will be high scoring, but I don't think it goes over 73. I have this one set at 70 and we are getting over 4 points of value, so I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Utah State/New Mexico State over (62) 1x (Locked)

Matt Chrisitan will start for the Aggies and they need him two after getting routed three games in a row without him. However, this is senior night for NMS and I expect them to put forth the effort necessary to make this an interesting game. The problem is that the Aggie defense is horrible against both the pass and the run and will not be able to contain even a disinterested Utah State offense. Utah State boasts a top 30 offense in F/+, FEI and S&P+, while their defense is in the bottom 3rd of the NCAAF. I think we see a motivated NMS offense against a weaker Utah State defense and this one turn into a high scoring game to end the regular season for NMS. This one opened at 61 and some outlets have 63, so will take the chance of missing out on the 61 even though that is a very important key total number. I have this one set at 64 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Fresno State/SDST over (60.5) 1x (Locked)

Here we have another game where motivation might be a bit of a problem for SDST who is probably locked into their bowl position. However, Fresno State will be playing its final game of a disappointing season and should play hard for its head coach Hill. Bottom line is that Fresno is all offense and no defense with a ranking in top 40 of the offensive advanced stats but well into the 100's on defense. I think we see Carr and Fresno rack up some points on an otherwise disinterested SDST defense. SDST should have no problem scoring in this game and I think we see a competitive and high scoring game. We are not getting a great number in this one after the game opened at 58, but covering the key number of 61 is pivotal. I have this one set at 63 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Texas/Baylor over (61) 1x (Locked)

I know about the weather concerns, but I think they are overblown. I am not worried about rain as much as the wind. However, sometimes bad weather can actually help scoring. In this game, I think we see a hard close game that is reminiscent of Texas' game last week against A & M. As long as RGIII plays the whole game, I don't see this one staying under such a low total for a Baylor game. Even though Texas has a top 10 defense in all the advanced stats, this is very low total for a Baylor game and their top 5 offense and I don't see Texas keeping Baylor under 4-5 touchdowns. On the other side of the ball, Baylor has not been able to stop anyone all year and I don't think they will stop an injured but still capable Texas attack. I was impressed with McCoy last week and I expect him to the majority of the snaps over Ash this week as he is the announced starter. With continuity at quarterback, I think that will help Texas offense in general as they struggle with injuries at the running back position. Thankfully, Texas is deep squad with talented young players and I expect them to pull out all the stops tonight after losing last year to Baylor. I just think we are getting too much value in this game to pass up. I have this one set at 65 and we're getting 4 point of value and covering 61, so I will roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[frostie]

i was thinking the same thing this is crazy. you want good defense to cover unders but not this good haha

[shocktopme]

.

LTA is one guy who gives nice write ups with his picks!!!!Definitly does his homework!!!Good luck my friend!!!!

[Love The Action]

Why the fuk is SoMiss trying to pass on first down after stopping Houston on fourth down. That makes no sense. RUN OUT THE FUKING CLOCK!

[Love The Action]

Another fuking pick 6 to fuk me in this Houston game. Unreal.

2 minutes left, 4 point cushion. If I lose this one, I just don't know what to say.

[Love The Action]

Houston just took a timeout with 10 seconds left down by 4 touchdowns!!!!!!

[Love The Action]

Nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo o!

Fuk this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!

[buurrdman]

How the FUK did that just happen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!11

[Holtgetsback]

tough break

[GChild]

Keep your head up bro!!! This happens good plays and bad...positive momentum anyone who bashes get the fukk out this thread!

[Donnie Brasco]

That was some bullshit there LTA!

[killersweet]

wow, unreal beat! this only happens in losses. If we needed this for an over, they would have never scored! bizzare 4th quarter

[Love The Action]

I want to fuking puke. A 11 point cushion with 2:40 left and first we get fuked by a pick 6 and then houston takes a timeout with 10 seconds down 28 points left just to score.

In a season filled with bad beats, this was one of the worst. I can't believe it.

[frostie]

holy shit ive never seen a more pointless try for a touchdown that was redic

[cohbull]

It's beats like this that makes me never want to bet an under ever again!

[Ab34]

have to realize that UH played terrible all game this was due

[Love The Action]

have to realize that UH played terrible all game this was due

More pissed about the pick 6 that happened one fuking minute earlier.

[Love The Action]

I just want to win one game because of crazy things like that. I have not won an over all season like that game. Those types of brakes just have not evened out for me this season and it is so frustrating.

[Ab34]

yeah I understand the frustration there.

[Ab34]

Keep doing good work your good at this they will eventually fall your way.

[GChild]

What's going on in the New Mexico st game? Wtf

[Love The Action]

This is shaping up as one of the worst investment weeks of my life. Lost the MNF by one point. NIU over was a disaster. Lost the Houston game on some bullshit. Multiple defensive touchdowns fuked me on the Uconn/Cincy under. Utah State and New Mexico State haven't scored a fuking point yet.

I wanted to go big on Oklahoma State tonight, but I feel so fuking snakebit right now....

[Love The Action]

What's going on in the New Mexico st game? Wtf

No shit. Where are all the pick 6, fumble return and special teams touchdowns that happened on the early unders.

SoMiss/Houston didn't score until 1 minute left in the first quarter and that one still went over. How bout the gambling gods return the fuking favor.

[NowMillionaire]

f*** I missed your 8th play, and seems that it looks good, and nothing @ New Mexico...

[brucethebear]

Mate, we all know what a good capper you are. Some absolutely farked results so far.
Time to regroup.

Only 3 weeks until hoops

[GChild]

This is shaping up as one of the worst investment weeks of my life. Lost the MNF by one point. NIU over was a disaster. Lost the Houston game on some bullshit. Multiple defensive touchdowns fuked me on the Uconn/Cincy under. Utah State and New Mexico State haven't scored a fuking point yet.

I wanted to go big on Oklahoma State tonight, but I feel so fuking snakebit right now....

Don't be scared your a good handicapper it will come!!

[Donnie Brasco]

Lsu should b down 14-0! How did they blow that td pass? Unreal!

[SlickRick1382]

Lsu should b down 14-0! How did they blow that td pass? Unreal!

Apparently neither the offense or defense on Georgia can catch the dam ball.....

[suicidekings]

I just want to win one game because of crazy things like that. I have not won an over all season like that game. Those types of brakes just have not evened out for me this season and it is so frustrating.

Every time this kind of thing happens, I think about Alan Boston talking on the Behind the Bets podcast. He's convinced that how the late game randomness affects you is a function of how good of a capper you are. The better you are, the more likely that you'll be on the right side going into those final few minutes and if something random happens, it's more likely to go against you than not. To me, this makes a lot of sense.

Also, only 22 days until Christmas.

[Donnie Brasco]

Apparently neither the offense or defense on Georgia can catch the dam ball.....

Shouldve had to picks also. Looks like iowa st and texas going my way atleast!

[suicidekings]

That was going to be a picture of the Bulls cheerleaders, calling the winner of that game right now... but the Bulls cheerleaders appear not to be the most elite group, from the photos I saw. unfortunate.

[Donnie Brasco]

Check out the honey bees in new orleans! Premium chicks there!

[Donnie Brasco]

Boom UGA!

[Donnie Brasco]

Check out the honey bees in new orleans! Premium chicks there!

Chris paul leaving us is gonna suck!