LTA's NCAAF Plays

[NowMillionaire]

I'm still thinking 42 points in the 2nd half is possible in New Mexico State's game! Need some luck thru

[suicidekings]

Check out the honey bees in new orleans! Premium chicks there!

I just checked. Agreed. It's really too bad Paul is leaving NO. I really like some of the Hornets players and if the team wasn't going through financial/ownership issues, they could have really done something with a couple of trades over the last 1-2 years. But wtv. One of MANY teams that just can't quite pull it together around a strong core.

[Donnie Brasco]

Yeah no kidding, hands are tied bad! Cant believe they are so restricted. Bad deal.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Northern Illinois/Ohio over (69) 4x (Locked) LOSS

Play #2

Northern Illinois (-3) 1x (Locked) PUSH

Play #3

Northern Illinois/Ohio 2h over (33)(-105) 2x (Locked) LOSS

Play #4

Uconn/Cincinnati under (48) 1x (Locked)

You one team with four straight overs in Uconn going against a team with four straight unders in Cinci. However, if you look at the Uconn games that have gone over, you will know that they have been scoring through defense and special teams. Those types of scores cannot continue on a consistent basis, especially against a team like Cincy who has solid special teams and will look to run the ball today. I think this game stays under the posted total because of quarterback play. I expect both teams to limit the pass plays in this game because that gives them the best chance to win. I do not have much confidence in the converted wide receiver in Cinci's Munchie Legroux and McEntee is still a bit raw to air it out against this Bearcat defense. Both defenses play well against the run with Uconn ranking 16th in the country in rush defense S+P+ and Cincy 45th. I think we see a classic Big East under here and once I was able to cover the key number of 48, the seventh most common final score in NCAAF, I had to lock this one up. I have this one set at 45 and we're getting a full FG of value, so I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #5

SoMiss/Houston under (74.5) 1x (Locked)

The buyback started and Pinny has started juicing the under so, I locked it up at 74.5. I would recommend this play at 73 or better, but I would not recommend it below 73. I have this one set at 70 and this is the exact type of game that has seen Houston games stay under the posted total. If you go back through Houston's schedule, whenever they have faced a top 40 defense in advanced stats such as Tulsa or SMU, the game has stayed under 65 points. In addition, even though SoMiss has a solid offense, Houston's defense has played very well in the last six or so games this season. We have 80%+ of all bets on this over so I think this provides us with a nice public fade opportunity. This one will be high scoring, but I don't think it goes over 73. I have this one set at 70 and we are getting over 4 points of value, so I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #6

Utah State/New Mexico State over (62) 1x (Locked)

Matt Chrisitan will start for the Aggies and they need him two after getting routed three games in a row without him. However, this is senior night for NMS and I expect them to put forth the effort necessary to make this an interesting game. The problem is that the Aggie defense is horrible against both the pass and the run and will not be able to contain even a disinterested Utah State offense. Utah State boasts a top 30 offense in F/+, FEI and S&P+, while their defense is in the bottom 3rd of the NCAAF. I think we see a motivated NMS offense against a weaker Utah State defense and this one turn into a high scoring game to end the regular season for NMS. This one opened at 61 and some outlets have 63, so will take the chance of missing out on the 61 even though that is a very important key total number. I have this one set at 64 and I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #7

Fresno State/SDST over (60.5) 1x (Locked)

Here we have another game where motivation might be a bit of a problem for SDST who is probably locked into their bowl position. However, Fresno State will be playing its final game of a disappointing season and should play hard for its head coach Hill. Bottom line is that Fresno is all offense and no defense with a ranking in top 40 of the offensive advanced stats but well into the 100's on defense. I think we see Carr and Fresno rack up some points on an otherwise disinterested SDST defense. SDST should have no problem scoring in this game and I think we see a competitive and high scoring game. We are not getting a great number in this one after the game opened at 58, but covering the key number of 61 is pivotal. I have this one set at 63 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #8

Texas/Baylor over (61) 1x (Locked)

I know about the weather concerns, but I think they are overblown. I am not worried about rain as much as the wind. However, sometimes bad weather can actually help scoring. In this game, I think we see a hard close game that is reminiscent of Texas' game last week against A & M. As long as RGIII plays the whole game, I don't see this one staying under such a low total for a Baylor game. Even though Texas has a top 10 defense in all the advanced stats, this is very low total for a Baylor game and their top 5 offense and I don't see Texas keeping Baylor under 4-5 touchdowns. On the other side of the ball, Baylor has not been able to stop anyone all year and I don't think they will stop an injured but still capable Texas attack. I was impressed with McCoy last week and I expect him to the majority of the snaps over Ash this week as he is the announced starter. With continuity at quarterback, I think that will help Texas offense in general as they struggle with injuries at the running back position. Thankfully, Texas is deep squad with talented young players and I expect them to pull out all the stops tonight after losing last year to Baylor. I just think we are getting too much value in this game to pass up. I have this one set at 65 and we're getting 4 point of value and covering 61, so I will roll with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

Oklahoma State (-3)(-115) 3.5x (Locked)

Oklahoma State has the better offense, defense and special teams numbers in F/+, FEI and S&P+ advanced efficiency stats. I also believe Whedon is the better quarterback over Landry. With OKST playing at home, coming off the Iowa State disaster, having lost 8 in a row to Oklahoma and fighting for a possible BCS bid, I have most of the qualitative factors favoring the Cowboys as well. The loss of Broyles was huge to the Oklahoma offense and to Landry -- has not been the same since. I have the OKST set at -5 and I just think they win this by touchdown. If I had won that NIU game and a few more today, this was going to be a 5x play. I won't go that big now after a tough start to my Saturday, but I do have to roll with the Cowboys for 3.5x. Good luck.

[Overbettor]

What are your thoughts on wis/msu Lta? In the last game had it not been for a couple miscues the badgers wouldve rolled. Im kind of torn because taking the 10points seems automatic and easy.....almost too easy. Thoughts??

[Love The Action]

Took a walk with the dog and baby to calm down. Nothing you can do with beats like that. Let's just get this late games and make up as much as we can. I'm off for the inlaws house for a holiday party. Might post another play from my phone. Good luck tonight!

[Dexter]

Play #9

Oklahoma State (-3)(-115) 3.5x (Locked)

Oklahoma State has the better offense, defense and special teams numbers in F/+, FEI and S&P+ advanced efficiency stats. I also believe Whedon is the better quarterback over Landry. With OKST playing at home, coming off the Iowa State disaster, having lost 8 in a row to Oklahoma and fighting for a possible BCS bid, I have most of the qualitative factors favoring the Cowboys as well. The loss of Broyles was huge to the Oklahoma offense and to Landry -- has not been the same since. I have the OKST set at -5 and I just think they win this by touchdown. If I had won that NIU game and a few more today, this was going to be a 5x play. I won't go that big now after a tough start to my Saturday, but I do have to roll with the Cowboys for 3.5x. Good luck.

dont forget the bye week off a loss. OKl St has been great off a bye the last few years. the one time they hit 70 this year was off a bye. GL LTA...

[815Sox]

Thanks for pointing out OK State, I am going to take a look at it. Have a couple hockey plays tonight and I am trying to limit myself.

[GGALLERT]

Nhl+okst over parlay!!!

thanks for pointing out ok state, i am going to take a look at it. Have a couple hockey plays tonight and i am trying to limit myself.

tor-bos over 5.5 + ok/okst over= $$$$$

[Moneyliner7]

Lta..Im on the over oklahoma st .. Its a good play

[Love The Action]

Play #9

Oklahoma State (-3)(-115) 3.5x (Locked)

Oklahoma State has the better offense, defense and special teams numbers in F/+, FEI and S&P+ advanced efficiency stats. I also believe Whedon is the better quarterback over Landry. With OKST playing at home, coming off the Iowa State disaster, having lost 8 in a row to Oklahoma and fighting for a possible BCS bid, I have most of the qualitative factors favoring the Cowboys as well. The loss of Broyles was huge to the Oklahoma offense and to Landry -- has not been the same since. I have the OKST set at -5 and I just think they win this by touchdown. If I had won that NIU game and a few more today, this was going to be a 5x play. I won't go that big now after a tough start to my Saturday, but I do have to roll with the Cowboys for 3.5x. Good luck.

Making this 4x total...confirmed. GL

[ultrasouth]

Lets get this LTA

[NowMillionaire]

Do anyone have a link for San Diego State's game ? please

[Overbettor]

No sorry. Its on cbs sports network though

[jihadvillager]

Do anyone have a link for San Diego State's game ? please

p2p4u dot net

[GChild]

Huge penalty that went our way!! Booom

[GChild]

Boooooooooooom

[GChild]

Nice rebound buddy

[Dave88]

Well done LTA.

[ultrasouth]

[NowMillionaire]

p2p4u dot net

Thank you, I finally could watch the 2nd half, and cash in SDS's over, at the end of the last quarter, could have been a final field goal instead of a winner touchdown

Nice pick LTA thank you,

I needed this win!

[Love The Action]

I will have a play in the army/navy game this saturday.

That loss on the niu over was the difference of being up around +10x on the season or being down a few units going into bowl season like we are. Thankfully, we do have those bowls to make this a respectable season.

After all the bad beats, I will take +10x in season profit and I think we can make that happen. 10x of my units is enough to pay for a 10 day trip to Maui and that's what I need to make from NCAAF to keep the wife happy and supportive of my sports investing. She likes to see profit from each market I play. If we can get to that +10x mark, this season will have been worthwhile. It all begins this Saturday. Good luck gentlemen. Let's close out the season strong.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Bowl Season Plays

Play #1

West Virginia/Clemson over (56) 6x (Locked)

Full writeup to come but this was the play I was eyeing as soon as the bowl assignments were announced. I ran this game through my model last night and I have the total set at 63.5. Even though I haven't fully capped the game, I had to jump on the value at 56. Plus, this number is sure to rise (up to 58 at Betonline), so we will have a great middle opportunity down the road if we decide not to let it all ride. For now, I am rolling with the over for 6x. Good luck.

Play #2

Wisconsin/Oregon over (72) 2x (Locked)

This is another one we need to jump on early to preserve a great number under the key number of 73. This was the other game I ran through my model last night and I have this one set at 76. Even though I have more work to do on this one, I wanted to lock it in before the line moves. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

[Donnie Brasco]

Damn 5dimes has no totals up!

[Donnie Brasco]

Love ohio (+3.5) vs utah state

[Sunde91]

over on clemson/wvu is cash

where did you get 56?

[Love The Action]

over on clemson/wvu is cash

where did you get 56?

Local book.

I know...my eyes popped out of my head when I saw that number. Since I locked it in, my local's website took the bowl game totals down. I'm hoping they reopen with a much higher number. GL

[poloman]

Total is 60 at B365 and 5D, how many units would you suggest for this total ?
1 or 1.5 ?

[Love The Action]

Total is 60 at B365 and 5D, how many units would you suggest for this total ?
1 or 1.5 ?

Yeah...anything over 59 should not be more than 1.5x. GL

[poloman]

Thanks !

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 14 Recap

3 - 5 - 1 = -4.4x

I had such high hopes for this week. The NIU game and 2h over plays just killed us and the Houston game was the epitome of our entire season as we lost in brutal fashion. Nonetheless, we made a strong comeback in final three games to mitigate some of the losses and leave us in striking distance of a fairly profitable season overall.

NCAAF 2011-2012 Season

72 - 77 = -2.55x

I have my sites set on a +10x seasonal profit goal after having so many disappointing losses this season. I have never experienced so many bad beats in one season before, but it was a learning experience and we still remain within striking distance of a very profitable season. I'm just hoping the gambling gods pay us back this bowl season. If I hit that +10x, it will have made all of the work I put in worthwhile. Good luck.

[Dexter]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Bowl Season Plays

Play #1

West Virginia/Clemson over (56) 6x (Locked)

Full writeup to come but this was the play I was eyeing as soon as the bowl assignments were announced. I ran this game through my model last night and I have the total set at 63.5. Even though I haven't fully capped the game, I had to jump on the value at 56. Plus, this number is sure to rise (up to 58 at Betonline), so we will have a great middle opportunity down the road if we decide not to let it all ride. For now, I am rolling with the over for 6x. Good luck.

Play #2

Wisconsin/Oregon over (72) 2x (Locked)

This is another one we need to jump on early to preserve a great number under the key number of 73. This was the other game I ran through my model last night and I have this one set at 76. Even though I have more work to do on this one, I wanted to lock it in before the line moves. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

locked Play #2 in already as well. Lets have a big Bowl season!

[mlb]

Good luck ... like those plays, wish they were up with my local already

[Love The Action]

locked Play #2 in already as well. Lets have a big Bowl season!

Good luck

[Love The Action]

ACTION WAGER (Not for Records Win or Lose)

Heisman Trophy Winner December 10, 2011

Robert Griffin, III (+150) 0.50x (Locked)

Along with a play on the total in the Army game, I will also have some action on the Heisman Trophy award this Saturday. I think this is a great spot to exploit some value in the odds. Right now, in addition to RGIII at +150, I'm getting +175 on Luck, +10000 on Keenum and Moore, +2500 on Barkley and Ball and -185 on Richardson. Keenum and Moore are eliminated because they have no chance as evidenced by their odds, leaving the only real contenders of Barkley, Ball, Luck, Richardson and RGIII.

Barkley played well coming on at the end of the year, but because of the USC sanctions he was precluded from contending for a National Championship or conference championship game and was not allowed to play in a bowl game. That hurt his chances. Much like a few of the other candidates, Barkley was "out of sight, out of mind" this weekend as UCLA and Oregon played each other for the Pac 12 crown. Even though Barkley might have the best pro prospects out of this group, he is not walking away with the award. I don't think the voters will embrace Barkley.

Montee Ball was a beast for Wisconsin this year, but was overshadowed by Russel Wilson to some extent. Was Ball's success the result of Wilson and vice versa? If you look at the other candidates, they are the main weapons for their respective offenses. However, with Wilson and Ball on the same team, the spotlight was shared. In fact, for most of the year, the Wisky PR Office was hyping Wilson more than Ball and it wasn't until the last few weeks that Ball established himself as a candidate. That is too little, too little in my mind and I don't think the voters will embrace Ball.

Andrew Luck was the darling of world until he was handled quite easily by the Oregon defense. Before that, he had a few games in which he struggled, including the lucky win over USC. I just don't see the voters giving Luck the award after fading over the last quarter of the season. While he has an outside shot as evidenced by his +175 price, Luck's lack of winning the big game will hold him back. The voters know this guy is destined for #1 NFL draft pick status, so don't expect him to get the Heisman too. Plus, Luck didn't play last weekend and missed out on that last chance to showcase his talents. I don't think the voters will embrace Luck.

Trent Richardson can very well win the award and if RGII doesn't, my pick would be Richardson. However, at -185, there is no value in this play. Richardson is a beast, but might not get enough love from the writers because he didn't do anything flashy and he doesn't have the off the field persona of an RGIII. I think Richardson will also be very successful in the pros and he has all the stats in the world to support winning the award, I just don't think he gets it because the best "story" in this year's race -- and remember the sports writers are the voters -- is RGIII. With Richardson coming from Bama and all the disdain the writers have for Saban, I think they want to root for the underdog this year and that dog is RGIII. I don't think the writers will embrace Richardson.

THE WINNER of this year's Heisman will be Robert Griffin, III.

RGIII is the full package. He's got all the stats, has done it for two years and he produced week in and week out all year rarely having an off game. In addition, he just had a huge game against Texas which was fresh in the writer's mind as the procrastinators turned in their ballot today. At +150, RGIII gives us the best bang for our buck and provides a nice return on our investment. Bottom line is that writers love a story and RGII gives them that underdog story. RGII is a very smart guy, graduated in three years at Baylor and will get his master's degree in communication this spring. If he decides to forgo the draft and stay at Baylor for a fifth year, he will do so as a law student at Baylor's law school. Writer's love this sort of story of a successful guy like RGII in comparison to all the dirty players and scandals of the Cam Newton and Reggie Bush Heisman years. I predict the writers give the award to RGIII because he earned it on the field just as much as any other player, plus he is a great story off the field that will restore some credibility to the award. RGII gives us the best value at +150 and I think the writers embrace RGII and his story by awarding him the Heisman Trophy Award on December 10, 2011. I am rolling with RGIII for 0.50x (under my football scale that is $125). Good luck.