LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Hawaii'sUpNcomin]

I will have a play in the army/navy game this saturday.

That loss on the niu over was the difference of being up around +10x on the season or being down a few units going into bowl season like we are. Thankfully, we do have those bowls to make this a respectable season.

After all the bad beats, I will take +10x in season profit and I think we can make that happen. 10x of my units is enough to pay for a 10 day trip to Maui and that's what I need to make from NCAAF to keep the wife happy and supportive of my sports investing. She likes to see profit from each market I play. If we can get to that +10x mark, this season will have been worthwhile. It all begins this Saturday. Good luck gentlemen. Let's close out the season strong.

Hope you have a good time on Maui. That's where I'm from and I'm sure you and your family will have a great time there. Keep up the good work and looking forward to the bowl season as well as the nba to tail once again.

[Love The Action]

Hope you have a good time on Maui. That's where I'm from and I'm sure you and your family will have a great time there. Keep up the good work and looking forward to the bowl season as well as the nba to tail once again.

Love Maui! We were married there and try to return at least once a year

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 15

Play #1

Navy/Army over (56) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come, but this is the highest total for an army/navy game in five years despite multiple unders in a row for this matchup, plus the books opened above the key number of 55 for a reason. Two good offenses against two weak defenses, should give us a nice over play. I have this set at 58.5 so we're getting some nice value. Most bets are on the under, but im rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I posted this in my thread earlier. http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...plays-p50.html

I thought we could get some Heisman talk going. I think RGIII is a great value wager for Saturday. Let's hear your thoughts. Good luck on whoever you choose.

ACTION WAGER

Heisman Trophy Winner December 10, 2011

Robert Griffin, III (+150) $125 (Locked)

Along with a play on the total in the Army game, I will also have some action on the Heisman Trophy award this Saturday. I think this is a great spot to exploit some value in the odds. Right now, in addition to RGIII at +150, I'm getting +175 on Luck, +10000 on Keenum and Moore, +2500 on Barkley and Ball and -185 on Richardson. Keenum and Moore are eliminated because they have no chance as evidenced by their odds, leaving the only real contenders of Barkley, Ball, Luck, Richardson and RGIII.

Barkley played well coming on at the end of the year, but because of the USC sanctions he was precluded from contending for a National Championship or conference championship game and was not allowed to play in a bowl game. That hurt his chances. Much like a few of the other candidates, Barkley was "out of sight, out of mind" this weekend as UCLA and Oregon played each other for the Pac 12 crown. Even though Barkley might have the best pro prospects out of this group, he is not walking away with the award. I don't think the voters will embrace Barkley.

Montee Ball was a beast for Wisconsin this year, but was overshadowed by Russel Wilson to some extent. Was Ball's success the result of Wilson and vice versa? If you look at the other candidates, they are the main weapons for their respective offenses. However, with Wilson and Ball on the same team, the spotlight was shared. In fact, for most of the year, the Wisky PR Office was hyping Wilson more than Ball and it wasn't until the last few weeks that Ball established himself as a candidate. That is too little, too little in my mind and I don't think the voters will embrace Ball.

Andrew Luck was the darling of world until he was handled quite easily by the Oregon defense. Before that, he had a few games in which he struggled, including the lucky win over USC. I just don't see the voters giving Luck the award after fading over the last quarter of the season. While he has an outside shot as evidenced by his +175 price, Luck's lack of winning the big game will hold him back. The voters know this guy is destined for #1 NFL draft pick status, so don't expect him to get the Heisman too. Plus, Luck didn't play last weekend and missed out on that last chance to showcase his talents. I don't think the voters will embrace Luck.

Trent Richardson can very well win the award and if RGII doesn't, my pick would be Richardson. However, at -185, there is no value in this play. Richardson is a beast, but might not get enough love from the writers because he didn't do anything flashy and he doesn't have the off the field persona of an RGIII. I think Richardson will also be very successful in the pros and he has all the stats in the world to support winning the award, I just don't think he gets it because the best "story" in this year's race -- and remember the sports writers are the voters -- is RGIII. With Richardson coming from Bama and all the disdain the writers have for Saban, I think they want to root for the underdog this year and that dog is RGIII. I don't think the writers will embrace Richardson.

THE WINNER of this year's Heisman will be Robert Griffin, III.

RGIII is the full package. He's got all the stats, has done it for two years and he produced week in and week out all year rarely having an off game. In addition, he just had a huge game against Texas which was fresh in the writer's mind as the procrastinators turned in their ballot today. At +150, RGIII gives us the best bang for our buck and provides a nice return on our investment. Bottom line is that writers love a story and RGII gives them that underdog story. RGII is a very smart guy, graduated in three years at Baylor and will get his master's degree in communication this spring. If he decides to forgo the draft and stay at Baylor for a fifth year, he will do so as a law student at Baylor's law school. Writer's love this sort of story of a successful guy like RGII in comparison to all the dirty players and scandals of the Cam Newton and Reggie Bush Heisman years. I predict the writers give the award to RGIII because he earned it on the field just as much as any other player, plus he is a great story off the field that will restore some credibility to the award. RGII gives us the best value at +150 and I think the writers embrace RGII and his story by awarding him the Heisman Trophy Award on December 10, 2011. I am rolling with RGIII for 0.50x (under my football scale that is $125). Good luck.

Added 0.50x for total of 1x +150 (Locked)


Getting +150 is too good to pass up. According to Letsgo's post, 5d has RGIII at -190 so getting +150 is almost stealing. I'm rolling with RGIII to win the Heisman for 1x. Good luck.

[Donnie Brasco]

Yes 5d has those odds on him against the field. I like honey badger as the long shot but cant get odds.

[Donnie Brasco]

Hey bro, i have about 2pts of value on army +7. What u got?

[Donnie Brasco]

Also 3 pts on temple, got them -9

[Donnie Brasco]

Love ur west va play. My book 5d opened at 60.5. No dice!

[Love The Action]

Hey bro, i have about 2pts of value on army +7. What u got?

So you have Army +5? The spread is 7 right now. I have Navy set at -8, but I think the total is the best play. There's a reason the books opened above 55....

[Donnie Brasco]

Ok so my line is way off as usual. Not gonna fool with total over 59.

[upscope]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Bowl Season Plays

Play #1

West Virginia/Clemson over (56) 6x (Locked)

Full writeup to come but this was the play I was eyeing as soon as the bowl assignments were announced. I ran this game through my model last night and I have the total set at 63.5. Even though I haven't fully capped the game, I had to jump on the value at 56. Plus, this number is sure to rise (up to 58 at Betonline), so we will have a great middle opportunity down the road if we decide not to let it all ride. For now, I am rolling with the over for 6x. Good luck.

Play #2

Wisconsin/Oregon over (72) 2x (Locked)

This is another one we need to jump on early to preserve a great number under the key number of 73. This was the other game I ran through my model last night and I have this one set at 76. Even though I have more work to do on this one, I wanted to lock it in before the line moves. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Mine opened 60.5 for WV/Clem
No total yet on Wis/Ore

[letsgo]

Total for Wis/Ore is 72 at 5dimes.

[SlickRick1382]

Added 0.50x for total of 1x +150 (Locked) Getting +150 is too good to pass up. According to Letsgo's post, 5d has RGIII at -190 so getting +150 is almost stealing. I'm rolling with RGIII to win the Heisman for 1x. Good luck.

Actually saw some ESPN segment on this season of NCAAF and they spent a nice portion of it talking about him and even got him on the phone. Looks like a stand up kid. I hope he gets it.

As for the bowl season plays. I have no doubt you're going to kill it and may my good karma from the San Diego thread carry over here !!!!

With you on both plays. Unfortunately my bookie already had this game at 60 so only going 1.5x on it at the moment unless I see it drop. Glad you got a great number on it.

Now lets get you that Maui trip !!!!

[SlickRick1382]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 15 Play #1 Navy/Army over (56) 1x (Locked) Writeup to come, but this is the highest total for an army/navy game in five years despite multiple unders in a row for this matchup, plus the books opened above the key number of 55 for a reason. Two good offenses against two weak defenses, should give us a nice over play. I have this set at 58.5 so we're getting some nice value. Most bets are on the under, but im rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

5 Dimes and The Greek have this game at 57.5 already .... Looking good LTA !!!!

[abejr]

LTA I was looking at BoiseSt/Az ST total of 67; I really like the over. Did you run your numbers yet. Total looks 4-5 points to low. Thanks

Good luck this Bowl season

[doogtonmai]

Players Only has Griffin at -500 now. Good job!

[Dexter]

Players Only has Griffin at -500 now. Good job!

obviously he is the winner. how does a site list this at -500 from a +150 opener? i would think it just comes off the board once the info is leaked.

[Krazymojo]

should we still hit that clemson game at 60.5?

[doogtonmai]

-600 now...amazing!

[Love The Action]

Total for Wis/Ore is 72 at 5dimes.

Yeah, that one has not moved. I'm a little surprised sharp money does not like the over here. Let's just see where this one goes....I'm just happy I got it below the key number of 73. GL

[Love The Action]

Actually saw some ESPN segment on this season of NCAAF and they spent a nice portion of it talking about him and even got him on the phone. Looks like a stand up kid. I hope he gets it.

As for the bowl season plays. I have no doubt you're going to kill it and may my good karma from the San Diego thread carry over here !!!!

With you on both plays. Unfortunately my bookie already had this game at 60 so only going 1.5x on it at the moment unless I see it drop. Glad you got a great number on it.

Now lets get you that Maui trip !!!!

[Love The Action]

LTA I was looking at BoiseSt/Az ST total of 67; I really like the over. Did you run your numbers yet. Total looks 4-5 points to low. Thanks

Good luck this Bowl season

Sorry, I have not gotten to that one yet. I've stayed away from Boise games since they lost the BCS chance and their motivation was take away. However, I would say that Boise's defense is respectable. Nevertheless, I tend to agree with you that the over looks a little low. I wouldn't say 4-5 points, but at least 2. I will try to get to this game tonight and get back to you. I stopped capping NCAAF bowls to concentrate on NFL last night because my one local pulled all of his totals for the bowl games after I slammed that WVU over and my other local has not opened up totals for the bowl games yet. Let me see what I have and I will get back to you.

[Love The Action]

Players Only has Griffin at -500 now. Good job!

-600 now...amazing!

I actually have -700 at the local where I got the +150. I'm loving this wager right now....sort of feels like money in the bank. However, I don't want to get ahead of myself as all of this "leak" rumors could be bullshit.

I'm definitely not hedging with Richardson though, I'm going to let it ride on RGIII. That move is obviously just too much to ignore. Hope you were able to get on this one with me. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

obviously he is the winner. how does a site list this at -500 from a +150 opener? i would think it just comes off the board once the info is leaked.

I hope so...don't jinx me

This would be a nice little 1.5x payday for this wager. I am actually looking forward to watching the Heisman ceremony

Good luck this weekend Dex

[Love The Action]

should we still hit that clemson game at 60.5?

That's getting pretty close to a no play. I would probably play it at 60.5, but no more than 1x. Remember, I have this capped at 63 and the key is getting this below the key number of 59. However, I think it's worth a play at 60.5 and maybe even 61. At the end of the day, I think this one flyes over the posted total well into the 70's. GL

[Krazymojo]

The navy game is at 57.5 too still play?

[upscope]

Why does 5D have the Wis/Ore total opening @ 51.5

12/05 05:20 PM 72 -110 72 -110
12/05 05:18 PM 51½ -110 51½ -110

[jas19illini]

LTA, what was your record last bowl season?

[Love The Action]

LTA, what was your record last bowl season?

I'd have to go back to look and tally it up. I didn't keep track of "bowl season" separate from the rest of the season.

It wasn't posted here anyway, so it doesn't really matter because if it isn't posted it didn't happen in the world of SBR -- and rightfully so.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 15

Play #1

Navy/Army over (56) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come, but this is the highest total for an army/navy game in five years despite multiple unders in a row for this matchup, plus the books opened above the key number of 55 for a reason. Two good offenses against two weak defenses, should give us a nice over play. I have this set at 58.5 so we're getting some nice value. Most bets are on the under, but im rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

We're looking good on this one as Pinny is up to 58 as of Thursday night. I expect each team to score 4 touchdowns in this game and for it to be a closer game than some might imagine. I'm not saying Navy will or will not cover, but I think they both score a lot of points and give a lot of points up. You have two teams that run the triple option to perfection and even though their defenses may be used to defending, that doesn't mean they have the athleticism to stop it. Both defenses are ranked in the 100's in defensive advanced efficiency stats, while the Navy offense is top 30 and Army is bottom third but improved with the health of Steelman. Pride is on the line in this one and I think we see Army come and play well offensively leading to an exciting game. In this series, there have been four or five unders in a row which will lead some to like the under based on that silly trend. We know better and know those trends are absolutely worthless. Instead, we have this capped at 58.5 and the market seems to agree so far since the total is up to 58. I like the value here and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Bowl Season Plays

Play #1

West Virginia/Clemson over (56) 6x (Locked)

Full writeup to come but this was the play I was eyeing as soon as the bowl assignments were announced. I ran this game through my model last night and I have the total set at 63.5. Even though I haven't fully capped the game, I had to jump on the value at 56. Plus, this number is sure to rise (up to 58 at Betonline), so we will have a great middle opportunity down the road if we decide not to let it all ride. For now, I am rolling with the over for 6x. Good luck.

Play #2

Wisconsin/Oregon over (72) 2x (Locked)

This is another one we need to jump on early to preserve a great number under the key number of 73. This was the other game I ran through my model last night and I have this one set at 76. Even though I have more work to do on this one, I wanted to lock it in before the line moves. I am rolling with the over for 2x. Good luck.

Play #3

Temple (-6.5) 1x (Locked)

Writeup to come tonight on this play, the other two bowl game plays and future picks made today. Good luck.

[rcjiii]

Is Steelman playing in this game?

[Donnie Brasco]

Does tulsa/byu total seem low to anyone here? I have 60.5

[GChild]

Finally got a line for Clemson over mine is at 61 unreal!

[No coincidences]

Bet you're kicking yourself for not putting a huge play on RG III now. Still, you got incredible odds for what is now a sure thing.