LTA's NCAAF Plays

[Love The Action]

I love track meets!

45 points with 6 minutes left in the 2nd quarter. Let's keep running

[GChild]

45 points with 6 minutes left in the 2nd quarter. Let's keep running

Boooooom

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 13

Play #1

Miami (OH)/Ohio over (53) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Play #2

Georgia Tech (+6.5) 1x (Locked) LOSS

This is primarily a value play. I have this one set at GT +3, but I'm getting +6.5. GT is playing at home where they have already won as outright dogs against a strong Clemson team. When it comes to the advanced stats, GT is close to or has better numbers than Georgia offensively and even though Georgia has the clearly better defense, I still think GT can keep this one close via its triple option offense. Watching the lines so I don't have time to get more in-depth, but this one is based primarily on value. I am rolling with GT and the points for 1x. Good luck.
Play #3

Bowling Green (+3) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #4

Louisville/South Florida under (45) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Play #5

Kent State/Temple under (41) 1x (Locked) LOSS

Play #6

Houston/Tulsa under (78.5) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Play #7

Alabama (-21) 3x (Locked) WINNER

I don't really think the Auburn home field advantage is enough to keep this one within 21. The Tide is the clearly superior team in this particular Iron Bowl with a defense that might just rank up there with some of the best. The Bama defense has 8-10 players that will play on Sundays and I expect them to run roughshot over a still raw Moseley. Alabama clearly dominates Auburn on both sides of offense and defense in F/+, FEI and S&P+ where the Tide are ranked top 3 (1st in many categories) and Auburn is in the 60's. In addition, Bama is playing with revenge and with the need to win with "style" points to ensure itself a rematch with LSU in the National Championship. I think we see the Tide roll -- or is the that Roll tide -- and I am rolling with Alabama for 3x. Good luck.

Play #8

Rutgers/Connecticut under (41) 1x (Locked)LOSS

I love the defenses in this game and don't have much respect for either offense. Both teams play great special teams and I am hoping we don't see any return td's because of solid kick coverage. As long as we can avoid special teams scores and fumble/pick 6's, I expect this game to stay under the posted total. Rutgers has one of the best defenses in the nation ranked top 10 in F/+, FEI and S%P+ advanced efficiency stats, while UConn is top 30-50. Neither offense is great and I expect an emphasis from both teams on the running game. UConn wants to run an uptempo spread offense, but it's inexperience at QB has forced a more conservative game plan this year. I expect both teams to go vanilla on offense and keep it simple by establishing the run. I have this game set at 37 and was waiting all week to cover the key number of 41 by getting 41.5. That number never materialized despite over 70% of all bets on the over. I will settle for 41 here and roll with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #9

ULL/Arizona over (64) 1x (Locked)WINNER

Last minute play solely because it dropped. I did not want to play this any higher as I have it set at 65. However, I think we see an uptempo game so I am going to take a shot even though I am getting a HORRIBLE number. I should have gotten this earlier in the week at the 61 to 62 range, but I'll take a shot with the over at 64 for 1x. Good luck.

Play #10

TT/Baylor over (81) 1.5x (Locked)

I have been waiting for a drop back to 79, but it never materialized. We are still covering the ultra important number of 83, so I'll take a shot here where both teams have no defense, play uptempo offense and throw the ball all over field. There's a reason this game is one of those rare games set in the 80's. This one should be a track meet. I have it set at the key number of 83 and we're still getting a couple points of value so I'll will add another taste and roll with the over 81 for 1.5x. Good luck.

Card is final. Let's get this Baylor over for a profitable week that will put us in the black for the season. Time to hang out with the baby and work on tomorrow's NFL card so we can keep the NFL momentum from Thursday going. Good luck.

[GChild]

Card is final. Let's get this Baylor over for a profitable week that will put us in the black for the season. Time to hang out with the baby and work on tomorrow's NFL card so we can keep the NFL momentum from Thursday going. Good luck.

Have a great evening thanks for all your hard work!!

[NowMillionaire]

TT/Baylor's over CA$HED IN !!!! Easy money

Nice work/pick LTA !

[Dave88]

Crazy game, easy money.
everyone.

[GChild]

Boooooooom don't even need the 4 th qtr

[Love The Action]

Have a great evening thanks for all your hard work!!

TT/Baylor's over CA$HED IN !!!! Easy money

Nice work/pick LTA !

Crazy game, easy money.
everyone.

Boooooooom don't even need the 4 th qtr

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 13 Recap

5 - 5 = +2x

A mixed results week, but we hit our big 3x play on the Tide and 1.5x play on the Baylor over to make it a profitable week.

NCAAF 2011-2012 Season

69 - 72 = +1.75x

Back in the black for the season and keep the momentum going heading into the final week and then bowl season. Looking forward to a very successful bowl season.

[Love The Action]

I will have my biggest play of the season on Friday - at least 5x - as long as I get the number I am looking for.

[mdfizzle]

Oregon UCLA game I imagine?

[Ab34]

Gonna guess it's the over lta

[GChild]

Can't wait

[SUPREME]

LTA, just wanted early insight from you on LSU vs GA in terms of a side. At first glance, think LSU can cover? Thanks in advance.

[Donnie Brasco]

Been crunching some #'s on nill/ohio. I love ohio here. The offensive advanced stats are similar, but huge edge on defense for ohio. Nill has struggled on defense, especially on the road. I cant believe nill is favored to tell u the truth. I have ohio -4+hfa. I have total in the neighborhood of 66. Thinking of a big play on ohio, waiting for +4 again, especially with the public all over nill's taint. Any thoughts?

[Love The Action]

LTA, just wanted early insight from you on LSU vs GA in terms of a side. At first glance, think LSU can cover? Thanks in advance.

I will probably pass on this game. While I think lsu can cover and there is about 1.5 points of value on a line of 13.5, I'm not sold as I could see a 10 point game playing out. I still have a LOT of work to do on this one, so check back in later in the week

[Love The Action]

Been crunching some #'s on nill/ohio. I love ohio here. The offensive advanced stats are similar, but huge edge on defense for ohio. Nill has struggled on defense, especially on the road. I cant believe nill is favored to tell u the truth. I have ohio -4+hfa. I have total in the neighborhood of 66. Thinking of a big play on ohio, waiting for +4 again, especially with the public all over nill's taint. Any thoughts?

Wow...i really disagree about the numbers. NIU has a clear and substantial advantage in advanced offensive efficiency numbers and the defenses are not that much different after the huskies recent improvement.

Also, you should note that the game is not a home game for Ohio as it will be played indoors at Ford Field. Were you basing your analysis on last weeks numbers or something? I have this total at 72, so we have a pretty big difference....hmmm...

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Northern Illinois/Ohio over (69) 3.5x (Locked)

I was planning to play this for 6x at the opener of 66. However, that number jumped up to 70 late Monday before my locals offered NCAAF totals. Last night, one of my locals opened at 69.5 and today my other opened at 69. I jumped on the 69 for 3.5x and may add more before kickoff. However, this will not be a 6x play because I lost out on those early 66's. I have this one set at 72, so we are still getting a FG of value even at 69 and I love this play. I will give you a full writeup and explain why this is one of my biggest plays all year later tonight. I also really like NIU as I have them set at -6, but will stick to the over for now. I am rolling with the over for 3.5x now and maybe more down the line. Good luck.

[suicidekings]

I can't say enough about how much I like NIU here. Starting squad loaded with seniors, many of whom have played together for 2-3 full seasons, given a second chance at the MAC title after a heartbreaking loss last year as a big fave. Led by a mobile QB with great instincts that runs for 112 ypg and is amazing in picking up that extra few yards after contact to get the 1st down. Harnish is a beast that is one of the best in the nation at extending plays and has a top tier offensive line protecting him. NIU is going to score a lot in this game. I booked it at -3.5 (+100) this morning.

Tettleton is good as well, and Ohio will score, so I like the Over (I'm on Over 69 too), but I think NIU will lead for most of, if not the entire game and not be shy about pouring it on. I thought this would be your big play. Glad to see we're on the same page here.

[Love The Action]

I can't say enough about how much I like NIU here. Starting squad loaded with seniors, many of whom have played together for 2-3 full seasons, given a second chance at the MAC title after a heartbreaking loss last year as a big fave. Led by a mobile QB with great instincts that runs for 112 ypg and is amazing in picking up that extra few yards after contact to get the 1st down. Harnish is a beast that is one of the best in the nation at extending plays and has a top tier offensive line protecting him. NIU is going to score a lot in this game. I booked it at -3.5 (+100) this morning.

Tettleton is good as well, and Ohio will score, so I like the Over (I'm on Over 69 too), but I think NIU will lead for most of, if not the entire game and not be shy about pouring it on. I thought this would be your big play. Glad to see we're on the same page here.

I agree 100% with your assessment.

[Dave88]

Thanks for the early tips.
The best I can get with my local now is -4.5 NIU and over 69.5.
Taking these both in parlay now before they move. My book is very conservative.
Thanks again and BOL.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Northern Illinois/Ohio over (69) 4x (Locked)

I was planning to play this for 6x at the opener of 66. However, that number jumped up to 70 late Monday before my locals offered NCAAF totals. Last night, one of my locals opened at 69.5 and today my other opened at 69. I jumped on the 69 for 3.5x and may add more before kickoff. However, this will not be a 6x play because I lost out on those early 66's. I have this one set at 72, so we are still getting a FG of value even at 69 and I love this play. I will give you a full writeup and explain why this is one of my biggest plays all year later tonight. I also really like NIU as I have them set at -6, but will stick to the over for now. I am rolling with the over for 3.5x now and maybe more down the line. Good luck.

Added 0.50x to Play #1 for total of 4x. Correct units denoted above.

Pinny just started juicing the over big time so a move cannot be too far. Getting 4x in now before 69 goes away for me.

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Northern Illinois/Ohio over (69) 4x (Locked)

I was planning to play this for 6x at the opener of 66. However, that number jumped up to 70 late Monday before my locals offered NCAAF totals. Last night, one of my locals opened at 69.5 and today my other opened at 69. I jumped on the 69 for 4x and may add more before kickoff. However, this will not be a 6x play because I lost out on those early 66's. I have this one set at 72, so we are still getting a FG of value even at 69 and I love this play. I will give you a full writeup and explain why this is one of my biggest plays all year later tonight. I also really like NIU as I have them set at -6, but will stick to the over for now. I am rolling with the over for 4x now and maybe more down the line. Good luck.

This is one of my biggest plays of the year simply because this game sets up perfectly for a shootout and I am getting a full FG of "value." I have to get to work, but I will give you some quick thoughts.

You have two top offenses, two of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in NCAAF, improving but still exploitable defenses, great field goal kickers and the game will be played indoors at Ford Field on that fast track.

Both offenses, but especially NIU, are very dangerous. NIU is ranked 31st, 10th and 20th nationally in overall offensive F/+, FEI and S&P+ advanced efficiency numbers. You break it down and you find a very balanced attack for NIU on both sides of the ball as they rank top 50 in both offensive rushing and passing S&P+. However, it's all about big plays with NIU as they rank 7th nationally in FEI Ex which represents the percentage of each offense's drives that average at least 10 yards per play. That is impressive, considering the Ohio is 43rd in defensive FEI Ex which is good, but not good enough to limit the big plays of NIU's offense. We all know NIU's scoring potential as Harnish and Co. are averaging a hair under 40 points per game. Harnish is the key to everything as his dual thread ability is really at the very upper echelon of NCAAF. In addition, the senior leadership of Harnish and the senior laden offense will not allow a repeat of last season's poor performance in the MAC Championship. Success in this game has been a goal for this NIU offense since day 1 and I don't see them having a let down on that fast track of Ford Field which so conducive to their style of play. However, Ohio is no slouch either with a top 50 ranking in F/+, FEI and S&P+. In fact, Ohio is like a "mini-me" of the NIU offensive attack and that begins with the QB Tettleton. Tettleton and Harnish rank 15th and 16th nationally in QB rating at 154 and 151 respectively, but Tettleton has actually thrown for a few more yards and TD's than Harnish. Make no mistake, the sophomore can play and is also the same type of dual threat qb as Harnish -- just as fast but without the muscle. With Ohio ranked 34th in FEI Ex, I expect both offenses to explode for some big plays. Ohio's scoring potential is undeniable as they average 32 points per game and this will be troublesome for NIU's improving but still vulnerable defense.

Both defenses are respectable, but they have a tendency to surrender points and I just don't see them stopping these talented offensive attacks. In overall defensive F/+, FEI and S&P+ numbers, you will find that NIU and Ohio is ranked 88th/84th, 103rd/74th and 74th/71st respectively. Those kind of numbers are just not going to get it done against these dangerous offenses that are well rounded and can score in multiple ways.

Both teams have very talented field goal kickers that can get it done from long range and short range as evidence FEI FGE kicking efficiency numbers which has Ohio at 38th and NIU 40th. Both kickers hit over 75% on the season and those extra 3 points off a 50 yard field goal always help an over.

With this game being played at Ford Field, we don't have to worry about weather or field conditions. Both teams have found success all year on turf all year and see no reason why this would change. Even though NIU has the clear advantage in motivational related qualitative factors, both teams have motivation to play well. I expect both coaches to pull out all the stops, keep the foot on the gas all game and we see a classic high-scoring MAC game. I am rolling with the over for 4x and might even add a taste. Good luck.

[Trivial]

As always, a fantastic kick ass write up. I can only get 69.5 an I am on it. Best of luck.

[Love The Action]

Pinny up to 70.5....

[No coincidences]

What do you think about the over tonight?

55 seems awfully high for a USF game. Books expecting a shootout?

[Love The Action]

What do you think about the over tonight?

55 seems awfully high for a USF game. Books expecting a shootout?

I have that total set right at 55 so I think that number is accurate and don't see an edge. WVU has a great offense and USF has a solid defense. I think this number is right where it should be. No play for me. Good luck

[YOUNGBUCK]

Bol with ur big play LTA

[Love The Action]

Bol with ur big play LTA

Thanks

[abejr]

Good luck LTA Let's get the cash tonight

[Love The Action]

NCAAF 2011-2012 Week 14

Play #1

Northern Illinois/Ohio over (69) 4x (Locked)

I was planning to play this for 6x at the opener of 66. However, that number jumped up to 70 late Monday before my locals offered NCAAF totals. Last night, one of my locals opened at 69.5 and today my other opened at 69. I jumped on the 69 for 4x and may add more before kickoff. However, this will not be a 6x play because I lost out on those early 66's.

This is one of my biggest plays of the year simply because this game sets up perfectly for a shootout and I am getting a full FG of "value." I have to get to work, but I will give you some quick thoughts.

You have two top offenses, two of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in NCAAF, improving but still exploitable defenses, great field goal kickers and the game will be played indoors at Ford Field on that fast track.

Both offenses, but especially NIU, are very dangerous. NIU is ranked 31st, 10th and 20th nationally in overall offensive F/+, FEI and S&P+ advanced efficiency numbers. You break it down and you find a very balanced attack for NIU on both sides of the ball as they rank top 50 in both offensive rushing and passing S&P+. However, it's all about big plays with NIU as they rank 7th nationally in FEI Ex which represents the percentage of each offense's drives that average at least 10 yards per play. That is impressive, considering the Ohio is 43rd in defensive FEI Ex which is good, but not good enough to limit the big plays of NIU's offense. We all know NIU's scoring potential as Harnish and Co. are averaging a hair under 40 points per game. Harnish is the key to everything as his dual thread ability is really at the very upper echelon of NCAAF. In addition, the senior leadership of Harnish and the senior laden offense will not allow a repeat of last season's poor performance in the MAC Championship. Success in this game has been a goal for this NIU offense since day 1 and I don't see them having a let down on that fast track of Ford Field which so conducive to their style of play. However, Ohio is no slouch either with a top 50 ranking in F/+, FEI and S&P+. In fact, Ohio is like a "mini-me" of the NIU offensive attack and that begins with the QB Tettleton. Tettleton and Harnish rank 15th and 16th nationally in QB rating at 154 and 151 respectively, but Tettleton has actually thrown for a few more yards and TD's than Harnish. Make no mistake, the sophomore can play and is also the same type of dual threat qb as Harnish -- just as fast but without the muscle. With Ohio ranked 34th in FEI Ex, I expect both offenses to explode for some big plays. Ohio's scoring potential is undeniable as they average 32 points per game and this will be troublesome for NIU's improving but still vulnerable defense.

Both defenses are respectable, but they have a tendency to surrender points and I just don't see them stopping these talented offensive attacks. In overall defensive F/+, FEI and S&P+ numbers, you will find that NIU and Ohio is ranked 88th/84th, 103rd/74th and 74th/71st respectively. Those kind of numbers are just not going to get it done against these dangerous offenses that are well rounded and can score in multiple ways.

Both teams have very talented field goal kickers that can get it done from long range and short range as evidence FEI FGE kicking efficiency numbers which has Ohio at 38th and NIU 40th. Both kickers hit over 75% on the season and those extra 3 points off a 50 yard field goal always help an over.

With this game being played at Ford Field, we don't have to worry about weather or field conditions. Both teams have found success all year on turf all year and see no reason why this would change. Even though NIU has the clear advantage in motivational related qualitative factors, both teams have motivation to play well. I expect both coaches to pull out all the stops, keep the foot on the gas all game and we see a classic high-scoring MAC game. I am rolling with the over for 4x and might even add a taste. Good luck.

Play #2

Northern Illinois (-3) 1x (Locked)

I can't believe this dropped to -3. That number is too good to pass up on the superior team at a neutral site. NIU has the better offense, comparable defense/ special teams, more experience and more motivation. I have NIU set at -6, so I had to jump on -3. I would actually play this for a higher stake, but I am more confident in the over and don't want to get too deep on this game. I am rolling with NIU for 1x but may add more. Good luck.

[GChild]

Boom

[Xstream]

Good Luck on the week LTA!

[YouHave2outs]

bol on that over lta. i have to tail you for at least something on any of your 3x or higher plays. let's get it

[NowMillionaire]

Got it for 4 units at 69.5, still a good line imo, BOL !! I will thank you tomorrow LTA for the win