on3's MLB 2013 Opening Day System Thread

[on3]

UPDATED for 7/12/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 104-7-0; Profit: +92.5 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units, LAA 9.5 units)

Filtered System: 17-1-0; Profit: +15.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 4-1-0; profit: -3.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 72-39; 14-5
Game 2 (B) win = 24-15; 2-3; 2-3
Game 3 (C) win = 8-7; 2-1; 2-1

LABBY LINES FOR 7/12/2013
31-31-32-30
40-x-x-x
x-x-37-x

Filtered
10-25-30-25
44-31-24-30
x-10-10-x

REGULAR FOR 7/12/2013
(A) NYY -170 to win 31
(A) DET -175 to win 30
(A) TB -310/-140 to win 32-- play RL
PIT -149 and CLE -144 and BAL -138 *FRINGE PLAY, WAIT FOR LINE MOVEMENT

Filtered
(A) DET -175 to win 35

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

Almost game time, official post for the plays? I locked in all six.

[on3]

sorry i didnt update, got swamped at work. but everyone knows the drill. PIT and CLE were plays, BAL was not. BAL looks like a win as does CLE and PIT looks like they'll have a 9th inning victory. so not too shabby.

[analyzer]

Thanks on3 ~ played PIT & CLE, nice pick-ups on both.

[on3]

Short post today

(B) TB -240/-120 to win 62 -- play RL

[J.M. Disciple]

c bet looks good

[on3]

Almost identical to yesterday

(C) TB -240/-120 to win 75 -- play RL

[on3]

First half recap: Unit total +101 regular units+ 17.25 filtered units -3.5 5/2 units = +114.75 units less 19.40 labby line holding units = +95.35 TOTAL UNITS

I hope everyone has enjoyed the first half. The second half of the season becomes more selective and the filter added is that teams need to have a +.500 record overall or at home if they meet all other criteria. If you want to jump ship and wait for football season, I wouldnt blame you. This has been a great first half of the season. I will continue posting, so whichever way you wish to go, best of luck.



UPDATED for 7/15/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 109-7-0; Profit: +101 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units, LAA 9.5 units)

Filtered System: 19-1-0; Profit: +17.25 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 4-1-0; profit: -3.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 76-40; 15-5
Game 2 (B) win = 24-16; 2-3; 2-3
Game 3 (C) win = 9-7; 2-1; 2-1

LABBY LINES FOR 7/15/2013
x-31-32-23
40-x-36-22
x-x-x-x

Filtered
x-25-30-x
44-31-24-30
x-10-10-x

REGULAR FOR 7/15/2013
none

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

Sticking with it! BS year last year. Just have to start fresh lines if they get too heavy again this year. Have a nice cushion of profit, so reducing the recoverable units rather than going bust will be my plan. If and only IF lines do get that heavy again.

For those of you following multiple systems could always shift a few #s over to another set of lines for different system if they ever get to like 10 units or some thing crazy.

Who are you all following for football? I have no idea of any good systems for NFL; and when is the start date?

[calebepley93]

I'm confused with how the recoverable losses are working. Do these have something to do with the Labby lines? I know how chasing works, I'm not very experienced with Labby however. Running a normal chase should cost you about 20 units a loss through a 3-4 game chase. How is this system up so much with the amount of losses it has accrued?

[on3]

I'm confused with how the recoverable losses are working. Do these have something to do with the Labby lines? I know how chasing works, I'm not very experienced with Labby however. Running a normal chase should cost you about 20 units a loss through a 3-4 game chase. How is this system up so much with the amount of losses it has accrued?

The losses are never removed from the lines, simply divided and carried over. So while each series begins as TO WIN ONE UNIT, once a loss occurs those losses are distributed over the labby lines so that future series are now to win more than one unit. Like with most baseball, it is streaky. So even though you incur a loss, when you hit 5 or 6 (A) bets in a row, your loss from the previous losing series is now fully recovered.

It is a controlled chase. Also, each series isn't on the money line, some of them are on the RL so the losses aren't as big as they would be if you chase on the ML the full series.

If you have any other questions, you can just look through the thread. Everything is documented.

[on3]

Sticking with it! BS year last year. Just have to start fresh lines if they get too heavy again this year. Have a nice cushion of profit, so reducing the recoverable units rather than going bust will be my plan. If and only IF lines do get that heavy again.

For those of you following multiple systems could always shift a few #s over to another set of lines for different system if they ever get to like 10 units or some thing crazy.

Who are you all following for football? I have no idea of any good systems for NFL; and when is the start date?

I do a JM NFL thread every year, here is last years: http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-bettin...-modified.html

2011 was a horrible year, 2012 was not as bad. The problem is that there aren't too many plays, so a loss hurts. There is some good data on my final post of that thread, that notes that even though the system had 3 losses, the unofficial 'D' bets were 3-0. I have to still backtest for previous years' 'D' bet records. Also, the games that preceded the start of a series went 31-18 straight up.

[hagball52]

The losses are never removed from the lines, simply divided and carried over. So while each series begins as TO WIN ONE UNIT, once a loss occurs those losses are distributed over the labby lines so that future series are now to win more than one unit. Like with most baseball, it is streaky. So even though you incur a loss, when you hit 5 or 6 (A) bets in a row, your loss from the previous losing series is now fully recovered.

It is a controlled chase. Also, each series isn't on the money line, some of them are on the ML so the losses aren't as big as they would be if you chase on the ML the full series.

If you have any other questions, you can just look through the thread. Everything is documented.

Awesome jod this year on3. I really like how you have implemented the labby and made it work this well. Also so sorry I couldn't hook up with you while you were in Vegas. Please let me know when you come back.

[on3]

Awesome jod this year on3. I really like how you have implemented the labby and made it work this well. Also so sorry I couldn't hook up with you while you were in Vegas. Please let me know when you come back.

I'm happy to help, I document everything anyways, might as well put it on the forum for everyone to share. Just glad it has worked out so far. With a year like this, I wish I would have bumped my units, ah well. Hopefully football brings even more prosperity. No worries about Vegas, there will always be a next time.

[on3]

looks like we will definitely 2 plays with 3 fringe pending (MIL not fringe because of sub .500 record). will update in the morning.

[J.M. Disciple]

BIG day for this system even with the filter it seems. Looks like out of the four plays and one possible fringe we should have 3 filter plays with o/u at 9 currently.

[analyzer]

Ready to get back into action today!

[on3]

UPDATED for 7/15/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 109-7-0; Profit: +101 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units, LAA 9.5 units)

Filtered System: 19-1-0; Profit: +17.25 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 4-1-0; profit: -3.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 76-40; 15-5
Game 2 (B) win = 24-16; 2-3; 2-3
Game 3 (C) win = 9-7; 2-1; 2-1

LABBY LINES FOR 7/19/2013
22-26-27-23-25
x-x-36-25
x-x-x-x

Filtered
20-20-20-20
24-26-24-30
x-10-10-x

REGULAR FOR 7/19/2013
(A) WAS -158 to win 27
(A) BOS -169 to win 25
(A) STL -182 to win 22
(A) COL -146 to win 23 *FRINGE PLAY, if line goes below -145 it is a NO PLAY

Filtered
(A) BOS -169 to win 20
(A) STL -182 to win 20 *FRINGE PLAY, o/u must stay at 9 or higher
(A) COL -146 to win 20 *FRINGE PLAY, if line goes below -145 it is a NO PLAY

5/2
none

[on3]

fringe plays still not official.

[on3]

deleted

[on3]

Texas no play

[analyzer]

Thanks on3!

[on3]

COL official with most books above -145

[J.M. Disciple]

I was thinking maybe we should keep track of unofficial plays with the .500 filter on the side to see how they do. Not really run labby on them just keep track of the record.

[on3]

I was thinking maybe we should keep track of unofficial plays with the .500 filter on the side to see how they do. Not really run labby on them just keep track of the record.

that sounds like youre volunteering...

[on3]

UPDATED for 7/20/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 111-7-0; Profit: +103.25 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units, LAA 9.5 units)

Filtered System: 21-1-0; Profit: +19.25 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 4-1-0; profit: -3.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 78-42; 17-6
Game 2 (B) win = 24-16; 2-3; 2-3
Game 3 (C) win = 9-7; 2-1; 2-1

LABBY LINES FOR 7/20/2013
21-26-27-23
46-14-11-45
x-x-x-x

Filtered
20-20-29-x
22-21-21-40
x-10-10-x

REGULAR FOR 7/20/2013
(B) WAS -138 to win 46
(B) COL -145 to win 45

Filtered
(B) COL -145 to win 40

5/2
COL -145 to win 100

[J.M. Disciple]

If i need more action ill probably play them as unofficial. ill update it once in a while.

[on3]

Short post

(C) WAS -110 to win 60

[on3]

updated for WAS and COL series

UPDATED for 7/21/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 112-8-0; Profit: +96.75 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units, LAA 9.5 units, WAS 8.75)

Filtered System: 22-1-0; Profit: +21.25 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 5-1-0; profit: +1.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 78-42; 17-6
Game 2 (B) win = 25-17; 3-3; 3-3
Game 3 (C) win = 9-8; 2-1; 2-1

LABBY LINES FOR 7/22/2013
32-31-33-34
46-14-14-x
x-x-33-60

Filtered
20-20-29-x
22-21-21-x
x-10-10-x

REGULAR FOR 7/21/2013
none

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[on3]

UPDATED for 7/22/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 112-8-0; Profit: +96.75 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units, LAA 9.5 units, WAS 8.75)

Filtered System: 22-1-0; Profit: +21.25 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 5-1-0; profit: +1.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 78-42; 17-6
Game 2 (B) win = 25-17; 3-3; 3-3
Game 3 (C) win = 9-8; 2-1; 2-1

LABBY LINES FOR 7/22/2013
32-31-33-34
46-14-14-x
x-x-33-60

Filtered
20-20-29-x
22-21-21-x
x-10-10-x

REGULAR FOR 7/22/2013
(A) TEX -179 to win 32
(A) COL -164 to win 31
(A) LAA -174 to win 33

Filtered
(A) COL -164 to win 29

5/2
none

[on3]

late add: (A) ARI -171 to win 34

[on3]

UPDATED for 7/23/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 113-8-0; Profit: +98.25 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units, LAA 9.5 units, WAS 8.75)

Filtered System: 22-1-0; Profit: +21.25 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 5-1-0; profit: +1.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 79-45; 17-7
Game 2 (B) win = 25-17; 3-3; 3-3
Game 3 (C) win = 9-8; 2-1; 2-1

LABBY LINES FOR 7/23/2013
47-43-45-46
46-44-44-23
x-x-33-60

Filtered
20-20-29-25
22-21-21-22
x-10-10-x

REGULAR FOR 7/23/2013
(B) COL -156 to win 46
(B) LAA -164 to win 44
(B) ARI -185 to win 44
(A) STL -215/-105 to win 43 -- play RL

Filtered
(B) COL -156 to win 42

5/2
COL to win 100

[on3]

UPDATED for 7/24/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 115-8-0; Profit: +102.5 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units, LAA 9.5 units, WAS 8.75)

Filtered System: 22-1-0; Profit: +21.25 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 5-1-0; profit: +1.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 80-45; 17-7
Game 2 (B) win = 26-18; 3-4; 3-4
Game 3 (C) win = 9-8; 2-1; 2-1

LABBY LINES FOR 7/24/2013
47-x-45-46
46-46-46-46
56-x-49-60

Filtered
20-20-29-25
27-26-26-27
x-10-30-25

REGULAR FOR 7/24/2013
(C) COL -171 to win 49
(C) LAA -230/-108 to win 56 -- play RL

Filtered
(C) COL -171 to win 40

5/2
COL to win 196

[on3]

dammit, series loss by the RL for the first time this season.

[on3]

UPDATED for 7/25/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 116-9-0; Profit: +96 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units, LAA 9.5 units, WAS 8.75, LAA 9 units)

Filtered System: 23-1-0; Profit: +16.5 units*corrected the unit count (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 6-1-0; profit: +3.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 80-45; 17-7
Game 2 (B) win = 26-18; 3-4; 3-4
Game 3 (C) win = 10-8; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 7/25/2013
40-40-40-39
46-46-46-46
56-x-40-60

Filtered
20-20-29-25
27-26-26-27
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 7/25/2013
(A) SEA -183 to win 39
TOR is a no play, doesnt meet .500 filter

Filtered
none

5/2
none