on3's MLB 2013 Opening Day System Thread

[on3]

UPDATED for 8/30/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 156-15-0; Profit: +107.75 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units, LAA 9.5 units, WAS 8.75, LAA 9 units, SF 11.5 units, TB 7 units, ARI 10 units, OAK 10 units, KC 11.5 units, DET 17.5 units)

Filtered System: 29-1-0; Profit: +25.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 9-1-0; profit: +18.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 106-67; 20-10
Game 2 (B) win = 36-29; 6-4; 6-4
Game 3 (C) win = 14-15; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 8/29/2013
70-68-69-71-63
80-78-79-79-75
84-83-84-83-84

Filtered
41-41-x-x
x-15-26-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 8/29/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
(A) WAS -180 to win 70
(A) DET -146 to win 68
(A) BOS -172 to win 69
(A) TEX -335/-145 to win 71 -- play RL
(A) LAD -200/+110 to win 63 -- play RL

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
(A) DET -146 to win 41
(A) BOS -172 to win 41

5/2
none

[bigvern]

Previous post removed

[on3]

UPDATED for 8/31/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 159-15-0; Profit: +117.75 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units, LAA 9.5 units, WAS 8.75, LAA 9 units, SF 11.5 units, TB 7 units, ARI 10 units, OAK 10 units, KC 11.5 units, DET 17.5 units)

Filtered System: 31-1-0; Profit: +29.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 9-1-0; profit: +18.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 109-69; 22-10
Game 2 (B) win = 36-29; 6-4; 6-4
Game 3 (C) win = 14-15; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 8/31/2013
75-x-76-76-76
89-89-89-88-88
84-83-84-83-84

Filtered
x-x-x-x
x-15-26-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 8/31/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
(B) WAS -175 to win 89
(B) TEX -230/-110 to win 89 -- play RL

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
none

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

on3 been in this position before when I ran a labby on baccarat and couple other times with sports. I would seriously consider starting fresh lines instead of continuing down this path. With the high juice involved in this system betting to win 3-4 units a game, your labby can really get out of hand. I remember you stating you want to keep your bet size at 6 units or lower if im not mistaken. Right now you are basically at that point once the juice is applied.

There is nothing wrong with starting some fresh lines. System is still up an incredible amount, so risking bankrolls on 6-10 unit bets in the near future is not worth blowing season profits on a couple bad series that we can not predict. Just food for thought. Some times its really hard to stop and start fresh, but I believe that is the smartest thing to do.

[on3]

on3 been in this position before when I ran a labby on baccarat and couple other times with sports. I would seriously consider starting fresh lines instead of continuing down this path. With the high juice involved in this system betting to win 3-4 units a game, your labby can really get out of hand. I remember you stating you want to keep your bet size at 6 units or lower if im not mistaken. Right now you are basically at that point once the juice is applied.

There is nothing wrong with starting some fresh lines. System is still up an incredible amount, so risking bankrolls on 6-10 unit bets in the near future is not worth blowing season profits on a couple bad series that we can not predict. Just food for thought. Some times its really hard to stop and start fresh, but I believe that is the smartest thing to do.

I agree, system is not clearing numbers and is at a stand still and there is far too much risk right now. I will bank the losses and reset the lines.

[on3]

Everyone,

This weekend will effectively be the end of the chase portion of this system. The lines are far too big and the system shows little momentum. To protect everyone's bankroll, I am resetting the lines and will account for all of the losses. The regular system is still up over +40 units.



UPDATED for 9/1/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 159-15-0; Profit: +47 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units, LAA 9.5 units, WAS 8.75, LAA 9 units, SF 11.5 units, TB 7 units, ARI 10 units, OAK 10 units, KC 11.5 units, DET 17.5 units)

Filtered System: 31-1-0; Profit: +29.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 9-1-0; profit: +18.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 109-69; 22-10
Game 2 (B) win = 36-31; 6-4; 6-4
Game 3 (C) win = 14-15; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 9/1/2013
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
20-20-20-20

Filtered
x-x-x-x
x-15-26-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 9/1/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
(C) WAS -137 to win 40
(C) TEX -205/+100 to win 40 -- play RL

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
none

5/2
none

[analyzer]

Thanks for all your work on3!

[hagball52]

Awesome job this year on3. You actually had the most losses in a season in a long time but you managed it to produce a really nice profit. Going forward I will probably copy your model for the upcoming NBA season. I've been chase betting for 5 years now and I really get discouraged by the amounts and juice on bets at the (C) and (D) levels. The way you run the labby it almost guarantees a profit no matter what. I would be very happy and much less stressed showing a modest profit on a continual basis. It would also encourage me to raise my amounts to account for more income. Look forward to you doing this again next year, hopefully. Thanks again.

[on3]

UPDATED for 9/2/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 160-16-0; Profit: +47 units (LAA, LAD, BOS, LAA, TEX, ATL, LAA, WAS, LAA, SF, TB, ARI, OAK, KC, DET, TEX)

Filtered System: 31-1-0; Profit: +29.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 9-1-0; profit: +18.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 109-69; 22-10
Game 2 (B) win = 36-31; 6-4; 6-4
Game 3 (C) win = 15-16; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 9/2/2013
10-10-20-20
10-10-10-10
20-40-x-x

Filtered
x-x-x-41
x-x-x-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 9/2/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
(A) ATL -225/+100 to win 30 -- play RL
(A) ARI -152 to win 30

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
(A) ARI -152 to win 41

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

Awesome job this year on3. You actually had the most losses in a season in a long time but you managed it to produce a really nice profit. Going forward I will probably copy your model for the upcoming NBA season. I've been chase betting for 5 years now and I really get discouraged by the amounts and juice on bets at the (C) and (D) levels. The way you run the labby it almost guarantees a profit no matter what. I would be very happy and much less stressed showing a modest profit on a continual basis. It would also encourage me to raise my amounts to account for more income. Look forward to you doing this again next year, hopefully. Thanks again.

Ive been thinking of this as well for the John Morrison road system I believe you are referring to. I still can not get past the fact of the 1-3-5 or 1-7-5 wallco and thelimit backtested though. I do believe those systems would be superior to the labby. I have not made up my mind yet on which one I want to follow. Again it is about your comfort level overall.

the 1/7/5 system
A) 1.1 to win 1
B) 8.91 to win 8.1
C) 16.511 to win 15.01

Does seem like a lot of risk, but I believe could tone it down a little bit and cut everything in half. I know it is based on system chase risk of the original system compared to system chase risk based at -110 odds. Could always cut everything in half. I am pretty sure it will out due the labby overall. Labby will provide a nice steady profit though, but will have lower ROI I believe.

Hag once you start a forum please link us and we can discuss future NBA strategy there. Either way I am on the money train for this coming NBA season.

I put together an excel sheet of covers closing odds with the filter system from this year. When I am done running the labby #s I will post to show all how well the filter system can do using 5% on your labby line. Its the one system thats been consistent year in and year out with a small loss last year I believe.

[J.M. Disciple]

Ok so I finished testing the labby based on using 5% for every new line for the filtered system and here are the numbers. I tried to attach a spread sheet from open office, but keeps saying invalid file. i am happy to email it to someone if they want to try and convert it.

All data is from covers closing line. I did not apply the .500 filter after all star break to this. Every time I cleared a line I took 5% of the bankroll and starting my labby line (single line) with 1% per number or 5 #s for the line.

Record:
A) 30-14
B) 10-4
C) 3 - 1

Profit: $7,939.56

All data is based on ML. Even the favorites that were -190 or higher I tested it based on ML because I do not know the odds for the RL. As you can see starting with a $10,000 bankroll this season would net you 79% gain and season is not over. Biggest bet however was from 6/06/2013 to 6/21/2013 this is when the series loss occured on texas. Biggest bet was $3,311.39 at risk to win $1892.22. At this point after the series loss the bankroll suffered a $1,022.96 decrease from the starting bankroll but once line cleared profit was recovered and it was rather consistent after that.

If someone wants to share their email and try and look at the open office file please PM me your email and ill see if i can get the data posted.

[oldshoebox72]

If someone wants to share their email and try and look at the open office file please PM me your email and ill see if i can get the data posted.

You can upload the spredsheet to your google drive account (if you have gmail), from there you can set the file available to everyone, then copy and paste the link here.
If you don't have gmail account, I am more than happy to post it here for you.
Thanks for all the works.

[oldshoebox72]

I have less than 20 posts, so I won't permit to sent email to other members. Just shoot me the file to street495@yahoo.com, I'll post the spread sheet here for every one.

[on3]

UPDATED for 9/3/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 161-16-0; Profit: +48.5 units (LAA, LAD, BOS, LAA, TEX, ATL, LAA, WAS, LAA, SF, TB, ARI, OAK, KC, DET, TEX)

Filtered System: 31-1-0; Profit: +29.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 9-1-0; profit: +18.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 110-70; 22-10
Game 2 (B) win = 36-31; 6-4; 6-4
Game 3 (C) win = 15-16; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 9/3/2013
10-23-20-x
10-10-10-33
20-40-x-x

Filtered
x-x-x-41
x-x-x-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 9/3/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
(B) ARI -148 to win 43

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
no ARI bet, closed at 8.5 yesterday

5/2
no ARI bet, closed at 8.5 yesterday

[ken23lau]

I think you missed the bet on BOS today and yesterday. They closed at -145

[J.M. Disciple]

I have less than 20 posts, so I won't permit to sent email to other members. Just shoot me the file to street495@yahoo.com, I'll post the spread sheet here for every one.

Ok just emailed you right now. Hopefully can get it uploaded.

[oldshoebox72]

Here's the link to the file. I've enable this file to be available to anyone to download. Hope it works.

https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B19V3DPYwVhrUEViVUtBaDdsOGs/edit?usp=sharing

[oldshoebox72]

Oh, I figured out how to attached the file to here SBR.

[on3]

UPDATED for 9/4/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 161-16-0; Profit: +48.5 units (LAA, LAD, BOS, LAA, TEX, ATL, LAA, WAS, LAA, SF, TB, ARI, OAK, KC, DET, TEX)

Filtered System: 31-1-0; Profit: +29.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 9-1-0; profit: +18.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 110-70; 22-10
Game 2 (B) win = 36-32; 6-4; 6-4
Game 3 (C) win = 15-16; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 9/4/2013
10-23-20-x
10-10-43-33
35-40-18-x

Filtered
x-x-x-41
x-x-x-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 9/4/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
(C) ARI -116 to win 75

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
none

5/2
none

[on3]

UPDATED for 9/5/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 162-16-0; Profit: +52.25 units (LAA, LAD, BOS, LAA, TEX, ATL, LAA, WAS, LAA, SF, TB, ARI, OAK, KC, DET, TEX)

Filtered System: 31-1-0; Profit: +29.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 9-1-0; profit: +18.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 110-70; 22-10
Game 2 (B) win = 36-32; 6-4; 6-4
Game 3 (C) win = 65-16; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 9/5/2013
x-33-30-x
10-10-33-33
x-x-18-x

Filtered
x-x-x-41
x-x-x-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 9/5/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
(A) BAL -145 to win 33
(A) OAK -260/-125 to win 30 -- play RL

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
none

5/2
none

[on3]

UPDATED for 9/6/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 163-16-0; Profit: +53.75 units (LAA, LAD, BOS, LAA, TEX, ATL, LAA, WAS, LAA, SF, TB, ARI, OAK, KC, DET, TEX)

Filtered System: 31-1-0; Profit: +29.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 9-1-0; profit: +18.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 111-69; 22-10
Game 2 (B) win = 36-32; 6-4; 6-4
Game 3 (C) win = 16-16; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 9/6/2013
x-x-30-10
18-28-33-33
x-x-18-x

Filtered
x-x-x-41
x-x-x-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 9/6/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
(B) OAK -265/-125 to win 51 -- play RL
(A) CLE -170 to win 40

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
none

5/2
none

[on3]

UPDATED for 9/9/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 165-16-0; Profit: +58.25 units (LAA, LAD, BOS, LAA, TEX, ATL, LAA, WAS, LAA, SF, TB, ARI, OAK, KC, DET, TEX)

Filtered System: 31-1-0; Profit: +29.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 9-1-0; profit: +18.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 112-69; 22-10
Game 2 (B) win = 37-32; 6-4; 6-4
Game 3 (C) win = 16-16; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 9/9/2013
10-10-18-20-30
10-10-11-10
x-x-10-x

Filtered
x-x-x-41
x-x-x-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 9/9/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
(A) CIN -180 to win 28
(A) TEX -175 to win 30
(A) LAD -166 to win 30

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
none

5/2
none

[analyzer]

on3 - are you still playing these or only posting for tracking purposes? I stopped playing after you reset the lines to preserve profit - was just curious what you were doing with the system at this point.

[on3]

on3 - are you still playing these or only posting for tracking purposes? I stopped playing after you reset the lines to preserve profit - was just curious what you were doing with the system at this point.

posting for tracking purposes. only playing B and C bets and filtered.

[on3]

UPDATED for 9/10/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 166-16-0; Profit: +59.75 units (LAA, LAD, BOS, LAA, TEX, ATL, LAA, WAS, LAA, SF, TB, ARI, OAK, KC, DET, TEX)

Filtered System: 31-1-0; Profit: +29.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 9-1-0; profit: +18.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 113-71; 22-10
Game 2 (B) win = 37-32; 6-4; 6-4
Game 3 (C) win = 16-16; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 9/10/2013
21-28-20-30
10-10-42-40
x-x-10-x

Filtered
x-x-x-41
x-x-x-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 9/10/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
(B) CIN -225/-105 to win 50 -- play RL
(B) TEX -132 to win 50
(A) STL -180 to win 48

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
none

5/2
none

[tuneman]

I saw that SEA closed at over -145 yesterday. Can you tell me why we passed on that one? Thanks!

[on3]

I saw that SEA closed at over -145 yesterday. Can you tell me why we passed on that one? Thanks!

under .500 overall and at home

[tuneman]

Thanks!

[on3]

UPDATED for 9/11/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 167-16-0; Profit: +62 units (LAA, LAD, BOS, LAA, TEX, ATL, LAA, WAS, LAA, SF, TB, ARI, OAK, KC, DET, TEX)

Filtered System: 31-1-0; Profit: +29.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 9-1-0; profit: +18.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 114-71; 22-10
Game 2 (B) win = 37-34; 6-4; 6-4
Game 3 (C) win = 16-16; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 9/11/2013
21-x-x-30
20-16-32-30
x-66-x-66

Filtered
x-x-x-41
x-x-x-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 9/11/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
(C) CIN -181 to win 66
(C) TEX -141 to win 66

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
none

5/2
none

[parlay100]

On3,
Thanks for all the info. There is no doubt the O/U 9 makes a difference but i was curious why you think that is?

[on3]

UPDATED for 9/12/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 168-17-0; Profit: +54.75 units (LAA, LAD, BOS, LAA, TEX, ATL, LAA, WAS, LAA, SF, TB, ARI, OAK, KC, DET, TEX, TEX)

Filtered System: 31-1-0; Profit: +29.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 9-1-0; profit: +18.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 114-71; 22-10
Game 2 (B) win = 37-34; 6-4; 6-4
Game 3 (C) win = 17-17; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 9/11/2013
21-x-45-25
20-16-32-30
x-x-53-66

Filtered
x-x-x-41
x-x-x-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 9/12/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
(A) PIT -170 to win 45
(A) LAD -177 to win 46

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
none

5/2
none

[on3]

UPDATED for 9/13/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 170-17-0; Profit: +59.25 units (LAA, LAD, BOS, LAA, TEX, ATL, LAA, WAS, LAA, SF, TB, ARI, OAK, KC, DET, TEX, TEX)

Filtered System: 31-1-0; Profit: +29.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 9-1-0; profit: +18.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 116-71; 22-10
Game 2 (B) win = 37-34; 6-4; 6-4
Game 3 (C) win = 17-17; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 9/13/2013
25-25-25-25-25
20-16-22-20
x-x-43-46

Filtered
x-x-x-41
x-x-x-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 9/13/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
(A) ARI -146 to win 25
(A) WAS -250/-115 to win 25 -- play RL
(A) DET -171 to win 25
(A) ATL -145 to win 25
(A) STL -183 to win 25


Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
(A) ARI -146 to win 41

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

careful, ARZ line on covers is now at -135, if you bet make sure it closes -145 or higher...

[J.M. Disciple]

Also Was is at -180 now at my book, so consider playing ML instead of RL.

I believe pitching change in WASH game, thats why.

Washington - R. Ohlendorf for S. Strasburg

[on3]

ATL and ARI were both well under -145 by first pitch, so they were no plays

UPDATED for 9/14/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 173-17-0; Profit: +63 units (LAA, LAD, BOS, LAA, TEX, ATL, LAA, WAS, LAA, SF, TB, ARI, OAK, KC, DET, TEX, TEX)

Filtered System: 31-1-0; Profit: +29.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 9-1-0; profit: +18.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 119-71; 22-10
Game 2 (B) win = 37-34; 6-4; 6-4
Game 3 (C) win = 17-17; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 9/14/2013
25-25-x-x-x
20-16-22-20
x-x-43-46

Filtered
x-x-x-41
x-x-x-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 9/14/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
none

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
none

5/2
none