on3's MLB 2013 Opening Day System Thread

[on3]

on3 -

I've been reading your past 2 years of posts on this system and finally got an account to point something out.

1st off, I wanted to tell you how impressive your details are to maintain this system and answering questions. It's actually a great looking easy to follow betting formula for baseball.

That said, I believe you have 1 flaw in your bookkeeping. And I actually read every page of the threads posts to make sure I understand and I'm not trying to be a troll or poke holes in the system at all.

The flaw is, when you're labbying, you are putting your losses into your future bets and therefore not counting them as losses unless the whole series loses. That's fine, except when you count a win, you have to count it at your base amount - not the full amount of what won.

e.g.
If my orig labby is 20-20-20-20,
Game 1: I lose, -44. New Labby 20-20-20-20-44. Reshuffle: 31-31-31-31
Game 2: I lose, -62. New Labby 31-31-31-31-62. Reshuffle: 46-46-47-47
Game 3: I win +93, New Labby x-46-47-x
Game 4: I win +93, New Labby x-x-x-x

Overall - I am now +80 [-44-62+93+93](+2units). Which makes sense because I had 2 wins @ $40/gm.
However in your thread you are counting it as +186 or +4.65units. So you're not really taking into consideration losses where the series doesn't lose.

However, you're system is still VERY profitable, just not as profitable as +134.75 units on the regular system.
I would say its 151 units (wins) - 105.75 units (4.5+17.5+7.75+7+6.25+7+9.5+8.75+9+11.5+ 7+10 losses)= +45.25 units

Still pretty awesome compared to any tout I've seen in 1 baseball system...so like I started, extremely impressive.

thanks for the post. i thought about this as well when i started tracking the units and when to bank losses, etc. and the system i came up is what you see posted in the thread. i will respond to this in more detail (about why i think im tracking correctly) when i have some time tonight.

[on3]

UPDATED for 8/20/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 153-12-0; Profit: +137.75 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units, LAA 9.5 units, WAS 8.75, LAA 9 units, SF 11.5 units, TB 7 units, ARI 10 units)

Filtered System: 28-1-0; Profit: +23.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 8-1-0; profit: +13.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 104-61; 20-9
Game 2 (B) win = 35-25; 5-4; 5-4
Game 3 (C) win = 14-11; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 8/20/2013
33-32-33-35
20-20-25-48-48
x-x-40-41-39

Filtered
27-25-30-x
x-25-26-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 8/20/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
(B) OAK -181 to win 48
(A) DET -205/+100 to win 33 -- play RL
(A) KC -176 to win 32

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
(A) DET -205/+100 to win 30 -- play RL

5/2
none

[on3]

also, there was a NYY play this morning that i didnt post. if NYY loses the unposted (A) bet, i will post the (B) bet.

[sportscreep1]

also, there was a NYY play this morning that i didnt post. if NYY loses the unposted (A) bet, i will post the (B) bet.

should of been filtered play too...

[J.M. Disciple]

I don't think on3 #s are not too far off. I understand still some money in play, but i don't think its from 2600 in the forum and only 800 in the book.

Will just have to go back through the thread and make a spread sheet to get to the bottom of it.

Also another thing you could do is not update the unit count until a line is cleared. Each cleared line is +2units so just update 2 units at a time. Might be easier make spread sheet going team by team using covers closing lines than use on3 bet amounts.

[J.M. Disciple]

On3 do you always bet just 1# on your labby? I feel personal capping could benefit plays going for 2 #s instead of one when they are lower. For example the filtered system never really gets out of hand. feel it should be a 2 strike approach. Today im playing filtered since it has higher consistency for a little more. Maybe next year consider it. Maximize profits than go back to 1# if it ever hits 4-5units a number. Just a matter of comfort i know. Just thought i would ask cause you said you went big on Texas couple weeks back after getting endorsement.

Good Luck and thanks for great season so far.

[J.M. Disciple]

Short term plan is starting out horrible, but adjusted labby so hopefully Oakland can beat sea tonight. Book has Oakland -203 so play RL im guess (+110).

Good luck again.

[J.M. Disciple]

wow clean sweep! we need to erase teams like Oakland and laa that always cost this system.

[sportscreep1]

wow clean sweep! we need to erase teams like Oakland and laa that always cost this system.

Definately LAA!!!! They cost us on 4, count em...4 different series totaling 30 units!!!

[on3]

UPDATED for 8/21/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 153-12-0; Profit: +137.75 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units, LAA 9.5 units, WAS 8.75, LAA 9 units, SF 11.5 units, TB 7 units, ARI 10 units)

Filtered System: 28-1-0; Profit: +23.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 8-1-0; profit: +13.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 104-64; 20-10
Game 2 (B) win = 35-25; 5-4; 5-4
Game 3 (C) win = 14-11; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 8/21/2013
33-32-33-35-33
45-45-46-48-48
x-60-44-43-44

Filtered
27-25-30-15
x-40-26-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 8/20/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
(C) OAK -136 to win 60
(B) DET -240/-110 to win 48 -- play RL
(B) KC -164 to win 48

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
(B) DET -240/-110 to win 40 -- play RL

5/2
DET -240/-110 to win 100 -- play RL

[ghislaine]

Solid work as always

[J.M. Disciple]

Any thoughts on oak and kc today? Im definitely on det. Trying play the filtered for 4%.per labby line and reduce my plays on regular system. Took tex and lad as separate personal plays today also. Only want to bet kc/oak if you all are confident in the two.

How strong are these two teams today?

[sportscreep1]

Any thoughts on oak and kc today? Im definitely on det. Trying play the filtered for 4%.per labby line and reduce my plays on regular system. Took tex and lad as separate personal plays today also. Only want to bet kc/oak if you all are confident in the two.

How strong are these two teams today?

Guess not very strong at all. :-(

[J.M. Disciple]

stayed away..Texas cost me a couple units but at least won ml parlay with them.

Early games today but i think kc is our only play and Oakland has day off? kc late game, but no new series.

Hoping for some filtered plays tomorrow.

[on3]

UPDATED for 8/22/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 154-13-0; Profit: +130.25 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units, LAA 9.5 units, WAS 8.75, LAA 9 units, SF 11.5 units, TB 7 units, ARI 10 units, OAK 10 units)

Filtered System: 29-1-0; Profit: +25.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 9-1-0; profit: +18.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 104-64; 20-10
Game 2 (B) win = 36-28; 6-4; 6-4
Game 3 (C) win = 14-13; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 8/22/2013
43-42-43-45-35
55-55-56-58
50-60-54-53-54

Filtered
27-25-30-15
x-x-26-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 8/22/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
(C) KC -162 to win 60

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
none

5/2
none

[on3]

PROS NFL leans - Ravens -3, Eagles -3.5, Saints +2.5

[on3]

15:1 parlay for a boring thursday: Washington RL+Atlanta ML+CHW/KC u7.5+SF RL 1st 5 = 25 tw 375

[J.M. Disciple]

I think Im taking stl today rl.

Think they have nice edge over atl today but rest of the parlay looks solid.

thanks for the leans. What do you think about kc today?

[J.M. Disciple]

PROS NFL leans - Ravens -3, Eagles -3.5, Saints +2.5

was hoping these were today. well ravens are today at least. I took kc -1.5 (+130) stl -1.5 (+155) kc/cws u7.5 (-125) and ravens -3 (-115).

parlay those as well but kc and stl ml. 20=118.

Good luck

[J.M. Disciple]

Heads up on a personal play(s) tomorrow. DET -1.5RL Get on it now before line goes up higher. Also if any of you bet preseason NFL SEA is a great play tomorrow. I have 2.5u on Sea at -2.5. Might do the same for Detroit to make it a 5 unit day. I am a Greenbay fan, but SEA is going to hand them their asses. Might do 5 units depending on how I feel tomorrow. 2.5units already locked in. Greenbay never tries preseason.

Only two system plays tomorrow that I see, with both possibly meeting filter criteria. Need get the total a little higher first.

[on3]

UPDATED for 8/23/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 154-14-0; Profit: +118.75 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units, LAA 9.5 units, WAS 8.75, LAA 9 units, SF 11.5 units, TB 7 units, ARI 10 units, OAK 10 units, KC 11.5 units)

Filtered System: 29-1-0; Profit: +25.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 9-1-0; profit: +18.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 104-64; 20-10
Game 2 (B) win = 36-28; 6-4; 6-4
Game 3 (C) win = 14-14; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 8/23/2013
51-50-51-53-53
55-55-56-58
64-63-64-63-64

Filtered
27-25-30-15
x-x-26-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 8/23/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
(A) CLE -157 to win 51
(A) CIN -189 to win 51 (if line goes above -190, play RL at +115)

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
none -- subject to change if the two (A) games today move up to 9 or higher

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

LOL only lost 1.5 units. made huge miscalculation; thought i lost at least 10units.

[on3]

UPDATED for 8/24/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 154-14-0; Profit: +118.75 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units, LAA 9.5 units, WAS 8.75, LAA 9 units, SF 11.5 units, TB 7 units, ARI 10 units, OAK 10 units, KC 11.5 units)

Filtered System: 29-1-0; Profit: +25.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 9-1-0; profit: +18.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 104-66; 20-10
Game 2 (B) win = 36-28; 6-4; 6-4
Game 3 (C) win = 14-14; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 8/24/2013
64-63-64-66-66
72-72-73-73
64-63-64-63-64

Filtered
27-25-30-15
x-x-26-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 8/24/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
(B) CLE -180 to win 73 (if line goes above -190, play RL at +110)
(B) CIN -184 to win 73 (if line goes above -190, play RL at +108)

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
none

5/2
none

[husky]

Hi on3. I read the entire thread and I couldn't find the 5/2 explanation in thelimits post. So the 5 means risk/win 5 units on the 2nd game and risk/win 2 units on the third game? Please tell me if I am way off target. Thanks much!

[J.M. Disciple]

Hi on3. I read the entire thread and I couldn't find the 5/2 explanation in thelimits post. So the 5 means risk/win 5 units on the 2nd game and risk/win 2 units on the third game? Please tell me if I am way off target. Thanks much!

There was a link posted for the rules of the 5/2 that you missed out on. Anyways the 5/2 goes a long with the filter system, but skips all the A bets. For the filter system if the A bet loses with the o/u of 9 or higher than you bet to win 5 units on B and if B bet loses, you bet to win your (B) bet loss (bet1) plus two units profit. So bet 1 you win 5 units if you win, if you lose bet one, you bet game C which is your bet two to win 2 units. At even odds (+100) its A = skip B = to win 5 units C = to win 7 units.

[parlay100]

on3 i reread most of the thread so i would not have to ask but did not find my answer. What are you meaning by recoverable losses and are you subtracting those units in the season win units?

[on3]

Sorry for not posting in the morning, I had a death I'm the family. At quick glance we have Detroit and LAD RL with Colorado as a fringe play that would also be filtered.

[analyzer]

Sorry for your loss on3

[on3]

Dodgers won, Detroit lost, and Col closed under -145 so no play on them.

UPDATED for 8/27/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 155-14-0; Profit: +121.75 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units, LAA 9.5 units, WAS 8.75, LAA 9 units, SF 11.5 units, TB 7 units, ARI 10 units, OAK 10 units, KC 11.5 units)

Filtered System: 29-1-0; Profit: +25.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 9-1-0; profit: +18.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 105-67; 20-10
Game 2 (B) win = 36-28; 6-4; 6-4
Game 3 (C) win = 14-14; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 8/27/2013
65-63-64-66-66
75-63-64-64-60
64-63-64-63-64

Filtered
27-25-30-15
x-x-26-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 8/27/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
(B) DET -164 to win 75
(A) WAS -149 to win 66

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
none

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

on3 i reread most of the thread so i would not have to ask but did not find my answer. What are you meaning by recoverable losses and are you subtracting those units in the season win units?

He is running a labby obviously, so series losses are just put back into the labby and eventually recovered by other series. If you look at the current lines you will see each number is around 3 units. Instead of starting each series to win 1 unit, on3 is using a labby to recover previous series losses, which is why some A bets are to win 3 units etc etc.

[J.M. Disciple]

I hope death in your family was not immediate family. Death in the family hurts, but immediate family can be much more painful. Take it easy and have someone post for you for a while if you need. Wish you and your family the best to come.

[on3]

I hope death in your family was not immediate family. Death in the family hurts, but immediate family can be much more painful. Take it easy and have someone post for you for a while if you need. Wish you and your family the best to come.

thanks buddy. it was extended family, so not too rough. it just tied me up for the day.

[on3]

UPDATED for 8/28/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 156-14-0; Profit: +125.25 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units, LAA 9.5 units, WAS 8.75, LAA 9 units, SF 11.5 units, TB 7 units, ARI 10 units, OAK 10 units, KC 11.5 units)

Filtered System: 29-1-0; Profit: +25.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 9-1-0; profit: +18.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 106-67; 20-10
Game 2 (B) win = 36-29; 6-4; 6-4
Game 3 (C) win = 14-14; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 8/28/2013
60-58-59-61-53
75-73-74-74-70
74-73-74-73-74

Filtered
27-25-30-15
x-x-26-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 8/28/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
(C) DET -166 to win 74

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
none

5/2
none

[on3]

UPDATED for 8/29/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 156-15-0; Profit: +107.75 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units, LAA 9.5 units, WAS 8.75, LAA 9 units, SF 11.5 units, TB 7 units, ARI 10 units, OAK 10 units, KC 11.5 units, DET 17.5 units)

Filtered System: 29-1-0; Profit: +25.5 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)

5/2 chase: 9-1-0; profit: +18.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 106-67; 20-10
Game 2 (B) win = 36-29; 6-4; 6-4
Game 3 (C) win = 14-15; 3-1; 3-1

LABBY LINES FOR 8/29/2013
70-68-69-71-63
80-78-79-79-75
84-83-84-83-84

Filtered
27-25-30-15
x-x-26-x
x-x-x-25

REGULAR FOR 8/29/2013 (A bets must close -145 or higher to be official)
none

Filtered (must close o/u 9 or higher)
none

5/2
none

[on3]

First half recap: Unit total +101 regular units+ 17.25 filtered units -3.5 5/2 units = +114.75 units less 19.40 labby line holding units = +95.35 TOTAL UNITS

I hope everyone has enjoyed the first half. The second half of the season becomes more selective and the filter added is that teams need to have a +.500 record overall or at home if they meet all other criteria. If you want to jump ship and wait for football season, I wouldnt blame you. This has been a great first half of the season. I will continue posting, so whichever way you wish to go, best of luck.

At the end of the first half, we were at +95 total units. as of right now, we are at +107.75 + 25.5 + 18.5 - 57.50 holding units - 7.5 filtered holding units = +86.75 units. down a little over 8 units since the all star break.