on3's MLB 2013 Opening Day System Thread

[on3]

Last year was a down year and the decline started after the All-star break. The first half of the season was great. Basic rules -- if HOME team A is favored by -145 or greater in game1 of their series, they are a play. 3 game chase. A few filters:

It was shown to be profitable to play a 5/2 system, the 5/2 is indicating the units bet to win the series. The trigger is when a filtered play loses the (A) game.
No 2-game series' should be played.
After the all-star break, teams must meet either the overall .500 record test or the home record over .500 test.
Odds > -190 should be played on the RL.
The O/U 9 filter has a very strong historical record.

[on3]

UPDATED for 04/1/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 0-0; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 04/1/2013
10-10-10-1010-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

New Line Filtered
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 4/1/2013
(A) WAS -250/-115 to win 20 -- play RL
(A) NYM -145 to win 20
(A) MIL -147 to win 20
(A) LAD -145 to win 20

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[analyzer]

On3 - do you know how many years of backtest showed a profit prior to last season? I only followed last season and was unsure whether to jump back in again or pass.

[on3]

I will have to check the backtest in last year's thread, but 5 out of 6 years it has been above +40 units

[analyzer]

Sounds good - thanks on3!

[hagball52]

Checking in. Good luck this year On3.

[on3]

bang biscuit, 3-0 to start the season.

[Vinnie Paz]

[juice050]

dam possible sweep for the day... lets get it.

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/2/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 4-0-0; Profit: +4 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 4-0; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 4/2/2013
Regular
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Filtered
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 4/2/2013
(A) TB -163 to win 20
(A) TOR -165 to win 20

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[bauerranch]

Checking in

[imotiv8]

nice!!

[Want2Win]

Where might I find instructions about what you mean by 5/2 and about the filter? Or is it just as simple to just follow the plays that you list? In other words If you list a play, you will already take in to consideration the filters? I saw your thread on Stifler's and I just follow his plays. Kinda like what time it is versus how the clock works ))

thanks!

[Want2Win]

One more thing, Does anyone know why I can't give any points all of a sudden?

[dominate.]

checking in!

[thelimit0310]

Thanks for bringing the 5/2 back this year On3, I will be following both your filtered system plays as well as 5/2. Good luck this season and thanks for the plays On3!!!

5/2 instructions are here for anyone interested

[MexicanStallion]

One more thing, Does anyone know why I can't give any points all of a sudden?

You can only give 2 points/24 Hours

[Want2Win]

Thanks Stallion, I know that ... but I haven't been able to give any points in a long time. As soon as I click the give point icon in a thread, It jumps me to the top of the page. I haven't been able to give points for weeks. Any idea?

These guys do a lot of work with their picks and I just like to give points for their work

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/3/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 4-0-0; Profit: +4 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 4-2; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 4/3/2013
Regular
10-10-43-42
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Filtered
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 4/3/2013
(B) TB -138 to win 20
(B) TOR -173 to win 20

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[ExodusNZ]

Whats the formula for excel to work out "to win" amounts. Ie on3 says he is betting enough to win $20.

What is the easy way to calculate this ?


eg: [-163] is (1.6135) x 33 = $53 so $20 profit

I just want to type in the excel box the amount I want to win (and the odds) and it will spit out how much I need to bet

[on3]

Whats the formula for excel to work out "to win" amounts. Ie on3 says he is betting enough to win $20.

What is the easy way to calculate this ?


eg: [-163] is (1.6135) x 33 = $53 so $20 profit

I just want to type in the excel box the amount I want to win (and the odds) and it will spit out how much I need to bet

No need, just follow my labby line. I do it for you.

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/4/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 5-0-0; Profit: +5 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 4-2; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 1-1; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 4/3/2013
Regular
10-10-43-42
x-10-44-x
10-10-10-10

Filtered
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 4/4/2013
(C) TOR -155 to win 20

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[ExodusNZ]

Hey

Thanks.

What bankroll would you suggest starting with? If we were playing your exact plays?

[on3]

Hey

Thanks.

What bankroll would you suggest starting with? If we were playing your exact plays?

minimum $1000. no need for more than $2000.

[juice050]

good shit on3

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/5/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 6-0-0; Profit: +6 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 4-2; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 1-1; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 1-0; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 4/5/2013
Regular
Reshuffled and added units to accomodate all plays
25-25-28-27-20-20-20
x-10-44-x
x-10-10-x

Filtered
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 4/5/2013
(A) NYM -165 to win 25
(A) ATL -177 to win 25
(A) LAD -200/+105 to win 28 -- play RL
(A) DET -180 to win 27
(A) BAL -155 to win 20
(A) TOR -163 to win 20
(A) TB -173 to win 20

Filtered
(A) BAL -155 to win 20

5/2
none

[ExodusNZ]

So do you bet the Orioles twice tomorrow ?

[analyzer]

If you playing both filtered and regular, yes you would play them twice.

[hagball52]

Nice work on your post On3.

[Mr. Green]

What about Colorado?

Thanks

[thes0vereign]

What about Colorado?

Thanks

I might be wrong, but I'm pretty sure it's based on the opening price. Colorado opened at -137.

Can on3 confirm?

[on3]

I might be wrong, but I'm pretty sure it's based on the opening price. Colorado opened at -137.

Can on3 confirm?

I post based on opening lines to get the earliest post for everyone's convenience. But sometimes, lines shift down or up which either negates them or enhances them to a play. In last nights case, Chicago White Sox were borderline PLAY ON and Colorado was borderline PLAY OFF. That has obviously reversed this AM. Long story short, official play:

(A) COL -155 to win 20

[thes0vereign]

Thanks for the explanation. I was away from the computer most of the day, so I didn't get it in.

[on3]

early games tomorrow (B) TOR -151 to win 27 and (B) NYM -150 to win 27

[on3]

Will do a full update in the morning