on3's MLB 2013 Opening Day System Thread

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/18/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 21-2-0; Profit: -1 units (LAA 4.5 unit loss, LAD 17.5 unit loss)
Filtered System: 2-0-0; Profit: +2 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 15-8; 2-0
Game 2 (B) win = 5-3; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 1-2; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 4/18/2013
Regular
55-32-30-35
x-x-65-75
55-28-28-65

reshuffle

35-37-40-40
20-25-45-50
45-38-38-55

Filtered
x-x-x-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 4/18/2013
(A) CIN -165 to win 75

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

quick question. Shouldn't the system be -1 units (17.5 + 4.5 = 22) but 21 series wins.

[on3]

fixed.

[J.M. Disciple]

This is going to sound like a silly question, but are these series losses based on labby #s or chase #s? Overall record being 21-13 and down 1u?

[on3]

This is going to sound like a silly question, but are these series losses based on labby #s or chase #s? Overall record being 21-13 and down 1u?

all the numbers/amounts are in the thread. the losses are augmented because of the chase. 3 $20 wins on an A line and one $65 loss on a C line still puts you in the red.

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/19/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 22-2-0; Profit: +2.75 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units)
Filtered System: 2-0-0; Profit: +2 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 16-8; 2-0
Game 2 (B) win = 5-3; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 1-2; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 4/19/2013
Regular (minor reshuffle)
20-37-20-40
20-25-25-30
45-38-38-55

Filtered
x-x-x-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 4/19/2013
(A) CHW -160 to win 57 -- CANCELLED
(A) SF -220/-105 to win 60 -- play RL
(A) TEX -205/-110 to win 57 -- play RL

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5/2
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[ejackson]

Texas?

[on3]

Texas?

Yes, sorry I missed that. Added.

[J.M. Disciple]

Not a ton of plays, but good job so far running the thread and answering questions. Trolls stay away when system is in the green! Keep up the good work.

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/20/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 23-2-0; Profit: +5.25 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units)
Filtered System: 2-0-0; Profit: +2 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 17-9; 2-0
Game 2 (B) win = 5-3; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 1-2; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 4/20/2013
Regular (minor reshuffle)
20-x-30-40
20-25-40-45
45-38-38-55

Filtered
x-x-x-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 4/20/2013
CHW NO PLAY BECAUSE OF 2-GAME SERIES, NO DOUBLE HEADER SCHEDULED
(B) SF -160 to win 65

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

I will have to check the backtest in last year's thread, but 5 out of 6 years it has been above +40 units

Was this back test based on 3 game chase or labby? Just assuming labby will make more than 40 units a season as two series losses have already been recovered.

Thanks

[J.M. Disciple]

had a parlay with SF which would of won 5 units, but there was a pitching change so canceled part of my parlay. Just want to ask, pitching change does not matter in this system, unless its an A bet correct?

[on3]

had a parlay with SF which would of won 5 units, but there was a pitching change so canceled part of my parlay. Just want to ask, pitching change does not matter in this system, unless its an A bet correct?

correct, only if it changes the odds to under -145 on an (A) bet

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/21/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 24-2-0; Profit: +8.5 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units)
Filtered System: 2-0-0; Profit: +2 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 17-9; 2-0
Game 2 (B) win = 6-3; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 1-2; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 4/21/2013
shuffled the labby a little bit
20-38-30-40
20-25-20-38
45-x-x-55

Filtered
x-x-x-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 4/21/2013
none

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/22/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 24-2-0; Profit: +8.5 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units)
Filtered System: 2-0-0; Profit: +2 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 17-9; 2-0
Game 2 (B) win = 6-3; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 1-2; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 4/22/2013
20-34-30-44
20-25-20-38
45-x-x-55

Filtered
x-x-x-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 4/22/2013
(A) CIN -157 to win 64
MIN NO PLAY BECAUSE OF 2 GAME SERIES

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

oN3 how are you deciding if you cross off two #s on your bets or 1 #? I know for SF B bet you cross off 2 #s, but earlier in the season when there are more plays you only bet to win 1 #. Around april 8th.

I am not saying you should change it, just wondering if this is base on gut feel or just amount of #s you have on the line. If I have 2 games and my line is x-27-33-x I added 10-27-33-10 to make it two #s to cross off for each game. What happens when you have 3 A bets but only two #s on your A line; do you bring up a # from B or C line?

I try to be as robotic as possible with my strategies, so just trying to understand yours more. Maybe I can improve on my own.

[on3]

oN3 how are you deciding if you cross off two #s on your bets or 1 #? I know for SF B bet you cross off 2 #s, but earlier in the season when there are more plays you only bet to win 1 #. Around april 8th.

I am not saying you should change it, just wondering if this is base on gut feel or just amount of #s you have on the line. If I have 2 games and my line is x-27-33-x I added 10-27-33-10 to make it two #s to cross off for each game. What happens when you have 3 A bets but only two #s on your A line; do you bring up a # from B or C line?

I try to be as robotic as possible with my strategies, so just trying to understand yours more. Maybe I can improve on my own.

I just try to keep every bet under 6 units risked. It's a comfort thing. No real strategy behind it other than money management.

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/23/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 25-2-0; Profit: +11.75 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units)
Filtered System: 2-0-0; Profit: +2 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 18-9; 2-0
Game 2 (B) win = 6-3; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 1-2; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 4/23/2013
x-34-30-x
20-25-20-38
45-x-x-55

Filtered
x-x-x-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 4/23/2013
(A) DET -175 to win 64

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[ken23lau]

Hi on3, is there a particular method that you stick to when you shuffle your labby? Can't really figure it out by looking at the numbers...

[on3]

Hi on3, is there a particular method that you stick to when you shuffle your labby? Can't really figure it out by looking at the numbers...

you can run your lines any way you want. i just shuffle my labby line around so that no bets are larger than 6 units RISKED. also, when i 'borrow' numbers from other lines i usually do take numbers from less frequent plays (i.e. 3 (C) bets all year and 27 (A) bets, so i will borrow from the (C) line). its just a comfort thing.

[on3]

no plays today, since DET was cancelled yesterday and no make up date was announced.

[on3]

we have a filtered play today. if it loses, we will have our first 5/2 play

UPDATED for 4/25/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 25-2-0; Profit: +11.75 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units)
Filtered System: 2-0-0; Profit: +2 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 18-9; 2-0
Game 2 (B) win = 6-3; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 1-2; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 4/25/2013
20-34-30-38
x-25-20-x
45-x-x-55

Filtered
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 4/25/2013
(A) BOS -260/-130 to win 64 -- play RL
(A) NYY -148 to win 58

Filtered
BOS -130 to win 20 -- play RL

5/2
none

[thelimit0310]

Thanks On3!

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/26/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 27-2-0; Profit: +17.75 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units)
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +3 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 20-9; 3-0
Game 2 (B) win = 6-3; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 1-2; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 4/26/2013
borrowed from the (B)(C) lines to replenish our (A)
40-x-45-40
x-x-x-x
10-x-x-10

Filtered
x-10-10-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 4/26/2013
(A) STL -182 to win 40
(A) KC -155 to win 40
(A) LAD -150 to win 45 -- if line drops below -145, this is a no play. wait for line movement before placing your bet. cut off will be 4.00pm PST.

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[on3]

LAD is a play.

[sportscreep1]

Is KC play today, since its still 3 games with twin-bill tomorrow?

[on3]

sorry for not posting the KC play on Saturday - 4/27. i will not count it since i didnt post it, but it was a win.

UPDATED for 4/29/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 29-2-0; Profit: +22 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units)
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +3 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 22-9; 3-0
Game 2 (B) win = 6-3; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 1-2; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 4/29/2013
30-10-10-30
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

Filtered
x-10-10-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 4/29/2013
(A) NYY -240/-120 to win 30 -- play RL
(A) DET -220/-110 to win 30 - play RL
MIL, CHC, LAD are all pending on the morning lines

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[KennyM10]

Horrible odds

[on3]

Adding:

(A) CHI CUBS -154 to win 20
(A) LAD -150 to win 20

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/30/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 30-2-0; Profit: +23 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units)
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +3 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 23-12; 3-0
Game 2 (B) win = 6-3; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 1-2; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 4/30/2013
40-10-x-40
33-30-10-36
10-10-10-10

Filtered
x-10-10-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 4/30/2013
(B) NYY -265/-130 to win 36 -- play RL
(B) DET -243/-115 to win 33 - play RL
(B) LAD -135 to win 30
(A) TEX -190/-110 to win 40 -- play RL

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[ejackson]

Cubs won yesterday. Texas RL?

[on3]

Cubs won yesterday. Texas RL?

I knew something was off. Thanks for correcting me. UPDATED.

[on3]

no plays today

UPDATED for 5/1/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 34-2-0; Profit: +30 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units)
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +3 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 24-12; 3-0
Game 2 (B) win = 9-3; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 1-2; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 5/1/2013
40-10-x-x
x-x-10-x
10-10-10-10

Filtered
x-10-10-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 5/1/2013
none

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/2/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 34-2-0; Profit: +30 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units)
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +3 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 24-12; 3-0
Game 2 (B) win = 9-3; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 1-2; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 5/2/2013
25-25-x-x
x-x-10-x
10-10-10-10

Filtered
x-10-10-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 5/2/2013
(A) PHI -195/+100 to win 25 -- play RL

Filtered
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5/2
none

[on3]

UPDATED for 5/3/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 35-2-0; Profit: +31.25 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units)
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +3 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 25-12; 3-0
Game 2 (B) win = 9-3; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 1-2; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 5/3/2013
25-x-x-x
x-x-10-x
10-10-10-10

Filtered
x-10-10-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 5/3/2013
(A) ATL -170 to win 25
NYY and KC are fringe plays, will update before 3p PST with official play/no play

Filtered
none

5/2
none