on3's MLB 2013 Opening Day System Thread

**ejackson** · 05-03-13, 12:22 PM

Cleveland?

**on3** · 05-03-13, 01:27 PM

CLE is also a fringe play. waiting to see how lines move.

**analyzer** · 05-03-13, 02:42 PM

Sounds good on3, look forward to later post.

**on3** · 05-03-13, 03:57 PM

Added play:

(A) CLE -150 to win 20

KC is rained out, and NYY will not qualify.

**on3** · 05-04-13, 11:16 AM

UPDATED for 5/4/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 36-2-0; Profit: +32.5 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units)
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +3 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 26-13; 3-0
Game 2 (B) win = 9-3; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 1-2; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 5/4/2013
x-x-x-x
x-42-10-x
10-10-10-10

Filtered
x-10-10-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 5/4/2013
(B) ATL -130 to win 52

Filtered
none

5/2
none

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-04-13, 01:12 PM

atl (A) @ -130???

edit.. They played yesterday, I see that it is a B bet. The juice threw me off.

**SkivChef** · 05-04-13, 04:02 PM

Atlanta ppd

**on3** · 05-04-13, 05:30 PM

yea, meant to write (B)

**on3** · 05-05-13, 11:25 AM

playing ATL small here. it's inky a two game series at this point.

(B) ATL -155 to win 25

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-05-13, 02:27 PM

Originally posted by on3

playing ATL small here. it's inky a two game series at this point.

(B) ATL -155 to win 25

I am a little confused, where did you get 25 from?

**sportscreep1** · 05-05-13, 07:06 PM

It's really not a play, so he said he's just playing it "small" so just picked an amount to win I'd assume.

**on3** · 05-05-13, 10:35 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

I am a little confused, where did you get 25 from?

there really is no precedent for the (A) game losing, (B) game rained out, (C) bet. 2 game series' shouldnt be played, so instead of risking a larger amount for something that hasnt been back tested, i just played it small (a little more than a unit, less than the original (B) bet.

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-05-13, 10:42 PM

Originally posted by on3

there really is no precedent for the (A) game losing, (B) game rained out, (C) bet. 2 game series' shouldnt be played, so instead of risking a larger amount for something that hasnt been back tested, i just played it small (a little more than a unit, less than the original (B) bet.

Thats koo, I was just looking at the labby lines and trying to get 25 some how. Thanks for explanation.

**on3** · 05-06-13, 11:20 AM

UPDATED for 5/6/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 37-2-0; Profit: +33.75 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units)
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +3 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 26-13; 3-0
Game 2 (B) win = 10-3; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 1-2; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 5/6/2013
10-10-10-10
x-17-10-x
10-10-10-10

Filtered
x-10-10-x
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 5/6/2013
(A) SD -180 to win 20
(A) BOS -190/-115 to win 20 -- play RL
(A) TB -145 to win 20
SF is a fringe play

Filtered
Fringe play, if total stays at 9 or above, this becomes official
(A) BOS -190/-115 to win 20 -- play RL

5/2
none

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-06-13, 03:54 PM

SF might be a play as well right? Opened -150 @ 5dimes. My book currently -148, but listed at covers -139 right now, but I think line might go up.. Huge pitching mismatch.

edit.. Just seen "fringe play"

**chound** · 05-06-13, 05:53 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

SF might be a play as well right? Opened -150 @ 5dimes. My book currently -148, but listed at covers -139 right now, but I think line might go up.. Huge pitching mismatch.

edit.. Just seen "fringe play"

Where do you get a huge pitching mismatch? Lee is excellent and all time against SF he is something like 4-0 and some terribly low ERA? Don't confuse poor run support for poor pitching

**on3** · 05-06-13, 07:49 PM

BOS closed at o/u 8.5. not a filtered play. i played it myself, but will not be completing the chase on BOS and it wont be 5/2 if it loses. SF is still under 145, im gonna call it as a no play.

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-06-13, 08:37 PM

Originally posted by chound

Where do you get a huge pitching mismatch? Lee is excellent and all time against SF he is something like 4-0 and some terribly low ERA? Don't confuse poor run support for poor pitching

Basing it off this season; although not terrible his last 3 has over a 6 ERA. I understand he is a good pitcher which is why the run total is only at 6. Just think he is struggling recently. And being on Phily as you said no run support.

Looks like you were right. SF got their asses handed to them. Still got some innings left, but not looking good.

**on3** · 05-07-13, 11:31 AM

UPDATED for 5/7/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 38-2-0; Profit: +34.75 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units)
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +3 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 27-15; 3-0
Game 2 (B) win = 10-3; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 1-2; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 5/7/2013
10-10-10-15
10-7-23-25
10-10-10-10

Filtered
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 5/7/2013
(B) BOS -182 to win 30
(B) TB -130 to win 35

Filtered
none

5/2
none

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-07-13, 03:19 PM

Why do we only use .500 filter after all star break? I think it would be better to use it before as well.

**ejackson** · 05-07-13, 03:22 PM

NYM play only two games against CHW.

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-07-13, 03:58 PM

Originally posted by ejackson

NYM play only two games against CHW.

Nice catch.

**on3** · 05-07-13, 05:19 PM

Thanks for catching the NYM series. I adjusted it in the post. I myself played it, but obviously it was in error. I apologize. Hopefully they cash today anyway.

**on3** · 05-07-13, 05:22 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Why do we only use .500 filter after all star break? I think it would be better to use it before as well.

What would we use as a cut off date? First week? Month? 2 months? There has been no backtest done as to when to start the .500 filter, but observation of the past 3-4 seasons has shown all-star break to be a good cut off as favorites become heavier and heavier. If you have any research, feel free to post and share.

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-07-13, 09:14 PM

lets hope for a nice C bet win... at least it was RL on A. Pretty impressive how you managed the labby so far this season, not being greedy keeping the bets small and unit count is almost same as win count. Very nicely done.

So mets won, but I took RL

Took all the games RL actually. Just hoping labby works wonders...

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-07-13, 11:57 PM

the two C bets on BoS and TB look good tomorrow.

Good Night, hopefully have 3-4 plays tomorrow clear these lines. Other system I am on is on TB also, so looks promising.

**on3** · 05-08-13, 10:44 AM

UPDATED for 5/8/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 38-2-0; Profit: +34.75 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units)
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +3 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 27-15; 3-0
Game 2 (B) win = 10-5; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 1-2; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 5/8/2013
10-10-10-15
30-34-23-25
10-10-35-37

Filtered
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 5/8/2013
(C) BOS -172 to win 45
(C) TB -176 to win 47

Filtered
none

5/2
none

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-08-13, 06:40 PM

What a 1st inning for both games.

sorry I can not give points, keeps taking me back to top of page. I know others have had same problem for a while as well.

HELP?

**Want2Win** · 05-09-13, 06:14 AM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

What a 1st inning for both games.

sorry I can not give points, keeps taking me back to top of page. I know others have had same problem for a while as well.

HELP?

Yes, I have even gone to SBR support and they can't figure out why when I try to give points it jumps to the top of the page as well It has gone on for at least two months for me

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-09-13, 11:18 AM

LoL so i can give points through my phone it seems.... doesn't appear to be sbr problem, but maybe mozilla ? Maybe type or browser were using....

**Want2Win** · 05-09-13, 02:25 PM

I do use Mozilla..

thanks for the point! LOL

**on3** · 05-09-13, 05:24 PM

sorry for the late post today

no plays today, BOS was a (C) bet loss

**on3** · 05-10-13, 12:05 PM

UPDATED for 5/10/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 39-3-0; Profit: +29.25 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units)
Filtered System: 3-0-0; Profit: +3 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 27-15; 3-0
Game 2 (B) win = 10-5; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 2-3; 0-0; 0-0

LABBY LINES FOR 5/10/2013
32-30-35-35
10-14-23-25
x-10-35-30

Filtered
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10
10-10-10-10

REGULAR FOR 5/10/2013
(A) STL -159 to win 32
(A) DET -195/+105 bet 35 -- play RL
(A) BOS -205/+100 to win 35 -- play RL
(A) TB -170 to win 30
fringe play CIN (must be over -145)

Filtered
(A) BOS -205/+100 to win 20 -- play RL

5/2
none

**sportscreep1** · 05-10-13, 12:40 PM

Here we go with Boston again....
Better come thru this time....

**J.M. Disciple** · 05-10-13, 01:15 PM

Originally posted by sportscreep1

Here we go with Boston again....
Better come thru this time....

People say this a lot, "whens last time we lost back to back 'C bets'?" I know they are an A bet today, but should win at least 1 of 3, but probably still down money with boston over the last 4 Including today if they do win.

Systems like these need to be blind investment and just follow the numbers and think of the teams as just serial numbers or x and Y.

Anyways GOod luck

With that said, why is DET such a big favorite? CLE is a straight beast of a team the last 10 and not like they have huge pitching mismatch today either. Might have to apply a personal .500 filter on this series.

Just a little added incentive; last time BOS played TOR with Lester on the mount they won 13-0!