on3's MLB 2013 Opening Day System Thread

[hagball52]

Atlanta is playing a doubleheader today.

[J.M. Disciple]

Anyknow the backtest A B C records? A & B seem to be doing great but C bets this year and last year are very poor.


Also anyone know anything about zack wheeler for NYM pitcher today in game 2? Dont see any stats on covers for him...

[bigtymer56]

No minor league stats, but here's a nice write-up on him:

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1675007-why-zack-wheeler-is-hyped-as-the-mets-next-great-pitching-stud

I hope this kid turns out to be as good as they say he can be. Mets might actually have a future if he is, teaming up with Harvey.

[on3]

some books have ATL -180, but 5dimes has them sitting at -189, so...

(C) ATL -189/+115 to win 57 -- strongly advise you to play RL. system will be graded on the RL play.

[on3]

UPDATED for 6/18/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 76-6-0; Profit: +66.5 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units)
Filtered System: 11-1-0; Profit: +4 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)
5/2 chase: 2-1-0; profit: -7.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 55-28; 9-3
Game 2 (B) win = 18-10; 2-1; 2-1
Game 3 (C) win = 4-6; 0-1; 0-1

LABBY LINES FOR 6/19/2013
25-25-27-27
22-30-20-31
x-x-57-27

Filtered
30-10-17-x
x-27-15-25
10-35-10-37

REGULAR FOR 6/19/2013
none

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[alansmith23]

A Game 1.5 RL Question

Atl game one we lost because they only won by one run.

Has there ever been a thought to play a -1 line which has about half the juice the moneyline is.

If we push game one we scratch the series.

If we lose same position a little bigger loss but still not as big as the moneyline loss.

This isnt a reaction to the Atl series, just a good time to ask the question.

Thank you so much for all your work ON3!! and all other who contribute!!

[alansmith23]

The reason I ask is because it seems the philosophy behind the system is that a good team shouldnt get swept by a bad team at home three straight games. Atl didnt but we still lost. Just a thought.

[J.M. Disciple]

People tested this in the past if you read through last year thread. Mostly due to the fact on3 uses the labby, hybrid version of it, the way he has it laid out is best way so far. I am sure -1 drops at least 10% off the win rate. To each his own method though.

[on3]

UPDATED for 6/20/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 76-6-0; Profit: +66.5 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units)
Filtered System: 11-1-0; Profit: +4 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)
5/2 chase: 2-1-0; profit: -7.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 55-28; 9-3
Game 2 (B) win = 18-10; 2-1; 2-1
Game 3 (C) win = 4-6; 0-1; 0-1

LABBY LINES FOR 6/20/2013
20-20-32-32
22-30-20-31
x-x-57-27

Filtered
30-10-17-x
x-27-15-25
10-35-10-37

REGULAR FOR 6/20/2013
(A) WAS -176 to win 32
(A) SF -173 to win 32

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

On3, do you have a schedule of all the three game series that you use to post the plays and just check the line movement each day?

[on3]

On3, do you have a schedule of all the three game series that you use to post the plays and just check the line movement each day?

im not that streamlined. i know series' usually start on monday thursday and friday, rarely do they start any other day. so i check the lines, see what's above -145 do a quick schedule check to see if there are any anomalies and then post. otherwise i would happily share any spreadsheet i had.

[on3]

UPDATED for 6/21/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 77-6-0; Profit: +68 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units)
Filtered System: 11-1-0; Profit: +4 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)
5/2 chase: 2-1-0; profit: -7.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 56-29; 9-3
Game 2 (B) win = 18-10; 2-1; 2-1
Game 3 (C) win = 4-6; 0-1; 0-1

LABBY LINES FOR 6/21/2013
x-33-34-35
18-30-38-45
x-x-57-27

Filtered
30-10-17-x
x-27-15-25
10-35-10-37

REGULAR FOR 6/21/2013
(B) SF -151 to win 63
(A) CHC -175 to win 33
(A) PHI -189 to win 34 (RL is +125), play ML unless line goes above -190 then play RL
(A) LAA -166 to win 35

Filtered
(A) CHC -175 to win 30

5/2
none

[J.M. Disciple]

edit.

[J.M. Disciple]

edit.

[J.M. Disciple]

edit.

[on3]

I'm on my way to the airport right now, so I don't have time to post. JM if you can list the very amounts that would be good. I'm heading to the Bahamas for a week, then Vegas.

[J.M. Disciple]

edit.

[J.M. Disciple]

yesterday sf lost 95 (-151)
cc won 33
phi lost 64 (ml) (-189)
laa lost 58 (-166)

i split the losses of sf over b and c. crossed off one number top line from cubs win. split losses from phi and laa over A and B. Than averaged out the lines.

A) 65-65-x-x
B) 60-60-60-60
C) 44-44-44

full update with record later tonight.

If someone wants to double check the numbers and help everyone would be appreciative. Doubt i update every day.

[J.M. Disciple]

edit.

[ken23lau]

are you going to take over for on3 while he's gone?

[J.M. Disciple]

are you going to take over for on3 while he's gone?

If you want to and know the system you are more than welcome to. I helped him out last year, but as you can see I posted the plays and bet amounts during my lunch break which is why it was such a mess posting. I really thought on3 was going to have one last official post before he leaves for the week. I run my own labby on the side because we dont always get the exact juice or follow the exact strategy.

I know the system pretty well, I just dont know if I have time to post consistently. I'll make one official post than who ever wants to make the next one they can. It really doesn't matter as long as the plays get posted accordingly before game time begins and hopefully not right before game time like it happened today.

[J.M. Disciple]

RECAP FROM YESTERDAY

UPDATED for 6/21/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 77-6-0; Profit: +68 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units)
Filtered System: 11-1-0; Profit: +4 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)
5/2 chase: 2-1-0; profit: -7.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 56-29; 9-3
Game 2 (B) win = 18-10; 2-1; 2-1
Game 3 (C) win = 4-6; 0-1; 0-1

LABBY LINES FOR 6/21/2013
x-33-34-35
18-30-38-45
x-x-57-27

Filtered
30-10-17-x
x-27-15-25
10-35-10-37
REGULAR FOR 6/21/2013
(B) SF -151 to win 63
(A) CHC -175 to win 33
(A) PHI -189 to win 34 (RL is +125), play ML unless line goes above -190 then play RL
(A) LAA -166 to win 35

Filtered
(A) CHC -175 to win 30

5/2
none

UPDATED for 6/22/2013
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 78-6-0; Profit: +58.8 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units)
Filtered System: 12-1-0; Profit: +5.65 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)
5/2 chase: 2-1-0; profit: -7.5 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 57-31; 10-3
Game 2 (B) win = 18-11; 2-1; 2-1
Game 3 (C) win = 4-6; 0-1; 0-1

LABBY LINES FOR 6/22/2013
65-65-X-X
60-60-60-60
66-66-X-X

Filtered
X-10-17-x
x-27-15-25
10-35-10-37

REGULAR FOR 6/22/2013
(C) SF to win 66
(B) PHI to win 60
(B) LAA to win 60

Filtered
NONE

5/2
NONE

I will base juice of todays wins / losses on the closing lines to make for accurate tracking. A lot of props to on3; realizing how long it takes to update this thing correctly. I keep going back and finding mistakes i made posting with record and stuff. I will do daily updates with profit shown on the record. Hopefully gets easier as this is posted more.

Phi is a nail biter today, but managed to get the win. SF in extra Innings with a hot sub .500 team who might sweep them.... hoping for a late run from the Giants to avoid a series loss. Ill try and post around 12:00pm ET tomorrow for tomorrow's plays and update.

[ken23lau]

If you want to and know the system you are more than welcome to. I helped him out last year, but as you can see I posted the plays and bet amounts during my lunch break which is why it was such a mess posting. I really thought on3 was going to have one last official post before he leaves for the week. I run my own labby on the side because we dont always get the exact juice or follow the exact strategy.

I know the system pretty well, I just dont know if I have time to post consistently. I'll make one official post than who ever wants to make the next one they can. It really doesn't matter as long as the plays get posted accordingly before game time begins and hopefully not right before game time like it happened today.

If you want to you can PM me the system rules and I can help you out with the posting. I can only post the plays though because I don't know how on3 rearranges/organizes his labbys.

[J.M. Disciple]

+ $53 yesterday.

UPDATED for 6/23/2013
System(s) record Chase:Regular system: 80-6-0; Profit: +61.45 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units)
Filtered System: 12-1-0; Profit: +5.65 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)
5/2 chase: 2-1-0; profit: -7.5 units
Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 57-31; 10-3
Game 2 (B) win = 19-12; 2-1; 2-1
Game 3 (C) win = 5-6; 0-1; 0-1
LABBY LINES FOR 6/22/2013
65-65-X-X
60-60-60-37
66-37-X-X

Filtered
X-10-17-x
x-27-15-25
10-35-10-37

REGULAR FOR 6/23/2013
LAA [C]3:35ET START TIME to win $37


Filtered
None
5/2
None


The way I did the labby is not the best labby management ever, but I am trying to keep the wagers under 6 units as On3 has done all season. Little bit difficult during this bad week. I will not be playing the LAA C bet tomorrow as their starting pitcher is complete garbage and I have no idea how they are even a favorite tomorrow.


All I did for the labby was split the LAA loss from today over B and C (adding two #s), and crossed off two #s from SF and PHI win. If LAA had a better chance tomorrow might of just divided the loss over the two #s.

[J.M. Disciple]

Who would of thought game would be going so good for LAA. I stick by my analysis though with that pitcher as he is 2-12 this season. I actually bet against this system today and took pit +1.5. Some times i wish covers never existed and I would just play the system blindly instead of looking up stats.

Little early celebration, but cheers to all who followed the system for how it is suppose to be played.

Tomorrow there are no new series starting and only four games. Everyone enjoy their day off.

[brigade125]

uhhmmm... all tied up in the 9th...cmon angels... dont get swept here...

[J.M. Disciple]

UPDATED for 6/24/2013
System(s) record Chase:Regular system: 80-7-0; Profit: +58.60 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units) LAA (PENDING UNIT COUNT LOSS....)
Filtered System: 12-1-0; Profit: +5.65 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)
5/2 chase: 2-1-0; profit: -7.5 units
Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 57-31; 10-3
Game 2 (B) win = 19-12; 2-1; 2-1
Game 3 (C) win = 5-7; 0-1; 0-1
LABBY LINES FOR 6/24/2013
65-65-X-X
60-60-60-37
66-37-57-X

Filtered
X-10-17-x
x-27-15-25
10-35-10-37

REGULAR FOR 6/24/2013
???
Filtered
???
5/2
???

Someone please take over the posting. Its quiet easy. System just based on 3 game home stand with opening lines at -145 or higher. A bet must have closing line of -145 or higher. B and C bets dont matter. Filter system just has O/u on the A bet of 9 or higher. I think on3 was only going to be gone for a few days. Next plays should be on Tuesday.

Good Night and Good Luck rest of the season. Who ever runs the labby try and keep all bets under six units. Just split A loss over Lines A and B. Split B loss over lines B and C. and C loss for LAA i just left the (-$57) on line C. Odds at 5dimes closed at -153 so I just used that for on3's preference.

Buenos Noches.

PS
If you haven't seen the movie "this is the end" you should definitely watch it!

[ken23lau]

UPDATED for 6/24/2013
System(s) record Chase:Regular system: 80-7-0; Profit: +58.60 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units) LAA (PENDING UNIT COUNT LOSS....)
Filtered System: 12-1-0; Profit: +5.65 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)
5/2 chase: 2-1-0; profit: -7.5 units
Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 57-31; 10-3
Game 2 (B) win = 19-12; 2-1; 2-1
Game 3 (C) win = 5-7; 0-1; 0-1
LABBY LINES FOR 6/24/2013
65-65-X-X
60-60-60-37
66-37-57-X

Filtered
X-10-17-x
x-27-15-25
10-35-10-37

REGULAR FOR 6/24/2013
No Plays Today
Filtered
No Plays Today
5/2

PS. World War Z is also a great movie.

[ken23lau]

Is one unit 100?

[TwoCats]

Is one unit 100?

A unit is whatever you decide to make it - it is generally accepted as being 1% of your bankroll.

[ken23lau]

A unit is whatever you decide to make it - it is generally accepted as being 1% of your bankroll.

I was talking about in terms of on3's labby lines

[J.M. Disciple]

I was talking about in terms of on3's labby lines

A UNIT IS $20 for on3 labby lines. He starts with 10-10-10-10 so .5u per #. When ever you tally the units won or loss just take 58.60u profit for example and multiple it by 20. Means System is up $1172 this season so far. If system won $75 today you would take the $1172 + $75 = $1247 than divide by 20 and you get 62.35units profit. I'll check back in once in a while see how its being run, but pretty much doing my own thing now.

[sportscreep1]

Shouldn't have "gave it a go" NO Bos or Oak or Chi!!! All 2 game series.
sorry folks

Gonna give this a go.....Please double check!!

UPDATED for 6/25/2013
System(s) record Chase:Regular system: 80-7-0; Profit: +58.60 units (Recoverable losses: LAA 4.5 units, LAD 17.5 units, BOS 7.75 units, LAA 7 units, TEX 6.25 units, ATL 7 units) LAA (PENDING UNIT COUNT LOSS....)
Filtered System: 12-1-0; Profit: +5.65 units (Recoverable losses: TEX 7 units)
5/2 chase: 2-1-0; profit: -7.5 units
Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 57-31; 10-3
Game 2 (B) win = 19-12; 2-1; 2-1
Game 3 (C) win = 5-7; 0-1; 0-1
LABBY LINES FOR 6/24/2013
65-65-X-X
60-60-60-37
66-37-57-X


Filtered
X-10-17-x
x-27-15-25
10-35-10-37


REGULAR FOR 6/25/2013
Possible....
(A) Wash (line -144, has to be -145)

Filtered

5/2

[alansmith23]

Is Bos only a 2 game series?

Is Bos only a 2 game series?

Also CHW only a 2 game series?

Also OAK?

WAS is a three game series tho i think...

[sportscreep1]

Is Bos only a 2 game series?

Also CHW only a 2 game series?

Also OAK?

WAS is a three game series tho i think...

you are correct, sorry, thanks for actually knowing the system! Haha