[Ra77er]

I'm in

[KVB]

While my predicted score for the Edmonton vs. Winnipeg game of 30-17 gives us 47 points, most other forecasts come to a lower scoring game. Many unsophisticated models go as low as 38 or 39 points while others are just above 40. This Total opened at 46.5 and dropped to 45.5. I'm not surprised here as I expect considerable pressure on the Under from many different types of bettors; from those using numbers to deserving, streak breaking bettors. Also, the last time these two teams played Winnipeg scored a mere 3 points; and Edmonton is tough.

On Friday I had a lower forecast than most, and won with it. For this first game on Saturday I have higher predicted score than most. If that line dropped low enough I could go for it; but in this give and take world of the sports markets it seems like I just won this bet...perhaps the Under then?

Further, some unnamed metrics do indicate an Under play here, enough to warrant a buy in a slightly different market environment.

I believe the story of the day regarding money flow is going to involve the Total markets. Given so many angles to take the Under in the first game I could see a late Over, and we've seen those, against the closing line, to spoil the Under play as it leads into the next game. So, once again I could say that if that line drops I could go for it.

We could even be looking at a halftime bet here.

Win or lose, I'm certainly not jumping on the Under train. Of course, I've often found that once I've ruled out a possible outcome and position accordingly, it seems to be the winner.

This back and forth is written in part to illustrate some reasons why games could be a pass. As it stands, with the current information available and what we could gain from watching, I am passing on this Total.

But perhaps the book is getting what he wants from me here.

Consider this...the last time these two met we were given a gift of a line, whether taken or not, with more than 50 points. That game went under with a 32-3 score. Entering this game, the books know there are certain groups looking for the Under. Sometimes those bettors and sharper lines intersect. Notice my line of 47. Now, if I had metrics leaning towards an Under play, and the books wanted my ilk to sit on the sidelines, then an opening line of 46.5 that falls to 45.5 just might do the trick.

But here's the thing. I also have similar metrics leaning toward an Under in the second game Saturday between Saskatchewan and BC. I have predicted a total score of anywhere from 50 to 53 points. That includes, with equal basically equal chance, 51 and 52. Is it any wonder that the line opened at 51.5, and has dropped a bit? What does that say about my predicted scores?

So which one is the Under? Or is it both? There are so many questions, typical of a bet to pass. Have I mentioned how the markets like to split the bettors and the money?

One might suggest I bet the Under in the first game and if it loses, I bet twice as much and then some in game two. Rest assured that these markets are easy enough to beat, even in a trading thread like this, without needing to resort to silly chasing schemes.

So which Under are you picking up?

[KVB]

I have made a typo in my two posts above regarding the game between Edmonton and Winnipeg. My predicted score is 30 to 13 in favor of Edmonton, not 30-17. This typo does not change my plays or analysis. It keeps me within the range mentioned in the post about the spread…

For the first game tomorrow I have a predicted score of Edmonton’s 30 points beating Winnipeg’s 17 points. This puts me between many popular approaches the predict Edmonton to win by anywhere from 10 to 17 or even 18 points...

As for the Total, know that I do create multiple lines representing different groups and the reasoning regarding a 47 point Total written above still holds as the disciplined in that group intersecting those seeking the Under may have indeed been squeezed out. We can't get out of the books splitting the money that easy.

In terms of my prediction being higher than most others, while it is not as high as the opener, at 43 points it is still on the high end of most forecasts.

The difference is in the record keeping of my predictions. Instead of predicting on Over play against the opener by ½ point and Over 45.5, my predicted score calls for an Under play against these lines.

Reading my posts with this correction in mind should still provide valuable insight and for the second time in this thread I revealed a line, or forecast, I didn’t mean to reveal…lol.

So much information with all of this Football going on (CFL, NFL, NCAAF) that it is easy to make mistakes. Fortunately, in this instance, the mistake was caught early and won’t cost money.

[KVB]

...One might suggest I bet the Under in the first game and if it loses, I bet twice as much and then some in game two. Rest assured that these markets are easy enough to beat, even in a trading thread like this, without needing to resort to silly chasing schemes...

I do not really mean to say that these markets are easy to beat as much as I mean to say it is much easier to beat them when you are disciplined and patient with money and plays.

Never forget, they hold no quarter.

I'm still not picking up the first game's Total and hope to get back soon to write more about the second game.

[Booya711]

Edmonton 1st Half is a big play for me -3 and ML

[Hngkng]

For a non numbers perspective, I feel like Winnipeg's QB being on Edmonton for so long gives Edmonton a great chance to know his tendencies.
However, Winnipeg is basically fighting for their playoffs right now; they could very well be the more desperate team.
Edmonton will be fighting for 1st place in the West.

[KVB]

For today’s second game I have Saskatchewan with 33 or 34 points to British Colombia’s 17 or 19 points, hence the 50 to 53 point range mentioned earlier. Some models have BC winning this game by 5 or more points while it seems sharper models give Saskatchewan the edge. My prediction would appear to give Saskatchewan a substantial edge. BC is at home and has beaten Saskatchewan twice, back in the “Saskatch can’t get a win” days and the line has opened at BC -3 where it has remained.

This is the second half of the season and Saskatchewan can get wins. While mentioning over and over about the different halves of a season I went against Saskatchewan and went with Montreal -120 last week. That could have been a mistake as we know Saskatchewan will get some wins and they certainly won that day.

But back to back wins I’m not so sure. Is there evidence it could be BC? Short answer is yes. I do have metrics that counter my prediction. At this point I have to pass on the side as we watch the first game today.

I mentioned a bit about the Total for this game in an earlier post and have metrics that indicate an Under. I also talked about the opening line of 51.5, which has dipped a point but we are now seeing pressure on the Over again. It is my belief that more involved models giving Saskatchewan the edge are looking for an Under while those giving BC more than a 3 point edge tend toward the Over.

Often times, this type of analysis can and reasoning can be overshadowed by bettors seeking money flow and waiting for more information (like the first game results). This is why I often say we may not know the answer to the first game before the second game starts, or at least the first can be misleading. The NFL markets are far more superior at this type of deception.

Anyway, we could see BC and Under or possibly a 3 point push in the final game. As we enter halftime we may get more information regarding the books’ positions and the flow of money. I mentioned we could see a late Over in the first game, hopefully not with Edmonton covering late as well. Of course, I may have none of these scenarios correct, but that doesn’t mean we can’t still identify the money flow.

[KVB]

We have a 20 point game and the halftime line Total is 23 points. I have a predicted score of 30-13, or 43 points. My lines seem to be where they should be but answers hard to get. We could have a 24 or 25 point second half and still go Under the game Total.

I expect at least the price to lean on the Under, with a possible move to 22.5.

This second half Total invites under backers to take what is likely a losing bet.

I will pass and possibly watch a good Under play for this first game Total pass me by. It wouldn't be the first time this season I've sat idle while the play I passed on pays.

Patience and discipline will inevitably lead to a bettor watching a bet he "knew" would pay that he didn't make come in. Sometimes it's part of the game and should be handled maturely.

[KVB]

I will add to my position and take Winnipeg Blue Bombers +2.5 (+105) 2nd half over Edmonton Eskimos.

Good Luck

[Booya711]

Saskatchewan 1st H for next game

[KVB]

Edmonton 1st Half is a big play for me -3 and ML

[Booya711]

7-0 already for your 2nd H bet! GL

[KVB]

Despite the missed extra point, missed field goal and a 21-20 point game, and despite just a field goal making it a 24 point half and the Under for the game (see above post regarding the 2^nd half), I still think we will see a late over and have picked up UNDER 51 (-105) for Saskatchewan Roughriders versus British Columbia Lions.

Let’s hope it’s not with Edmonton to cover.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

The above post was submitted a few minutes later than I thought but the line is still available in many places.

[KVB]

Wow...lol...I was kicking myself. I thought I was duped again with Winnipeg winning 23-21, keeping the game Under but the 2nd half over.

It looks like Edmonton brought the late Over after all, but not to cover, to steal the win. So far the analysis for the day seems right on, as well as the bets placed.

[Hngkng]

Even with the refs trying to give Winnipeg the win. The Eskimos kick a 53 yarder to win it!


I love it!!!!

[Ra77er]

BC QB looks sharp here, I worry about points in the 2nd half once Sas gets going. Curious to see the 2nd half total and what you think KVB. Thanks for the winner with Winnipeg, analysis incredible.

[KVB]

...While I do have indications pointing to an upset, I think patience should be exercised. If indeed Winnipeg covers the 6 points, getting the upset would reward greed. It is my belief these markets are going to play a little tighter than that...

This turned out to be wise advice. So we pulled off a loser here, but can we also profit going forward? I will search for further signs of an upset brewing in the marketplace and be sure to point out what develops. There are no promises, however, as these indications can go both ways. From a market perspective, there is evidence that this lack of an upset is in part due to a sort of “carry over” effect from past weeks. The markets are ever flowing and I’m sure they will brew an upset again. Hopefully we can sniff it out.

This is the kind of thinking that can go into the “what can we learn” or “where do we go from here” situations that keeps the market analysis current and ever changing. Sometimes after a win in a big decision or game based on some strong metric, whatever it may be, and those metrics stop giving indications.

Updated numbers and constant market metrics, along with patience and discipline, can help bettors make through the third quarter of a season, in any league, as it is rarely an easy task.

I hope this made some kind of sense.

[KVB]

They managed to get to 25 points and, of course the second half total is 26. So we have the same bet all over again. I have to take it with UNDER 26 (-110) 2nd half for Saskatchewan Roughriders versus British Columbia Lions.

A loss here will indeed be recuperated at another time.

[Ra77er]

[Booya711]

Playing with house money but Saskatchewan shit the fukking bed...GL everybody else

[KVB]

...So which one is the Under? Or is it both?...

..One might suggest I bet the Under in the first game and if it loses, I bet twice as much and then some in game two...

So which Under are you picking up?...

Within all that on point analysis it turns out neither was the Under. The total markets still in a bit of a shakeout to take us out of the third quarter this season. We should see a bottom soon, and the Totals will hopefully be a little more forgiving.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Here's my weekly recap. Another .500 week. Should have next weeks #s fairly early this week.

		Sides		Totals
		W	L	W	L
Week 5		3	1	1	3
Week 6		4	0	1	3
Week 7		2	2	2	2
Week 8		1	3	3	1
Week 9		1	3	2	2
Week 10		1	3	3	1
Week 11		2	2	3	1
Week 12		3	1	2	2
Week 13		3	1	2	2
Week 14*		2	2	2	1
Week 15		2	2	2	2
Totals		24	20	23	20
*One total play pushed

[KVB]

We are only in week 4 of the NFL but I think I’ll suggest a play tonight. For tonight’s game my early (not necessarily really sharp) metrics indicate Seattle winning this game with 31 points to Detroit’s 20. Seattle just plain has a better offense and defense. This line opened with Seattle -9.5 and none of us should be surprised that it is at 10, as it seems much of the public is on Seattle.

There has been much discussion on SBR about consensus numbers and bet totals often listed on the internet. Bettors often like to see who the “public” is on and think this information can help them. Sometimes it can.

I’ve posted a few times about how these numbers don’t have to be accurate and the sources often can be questioned. I’ve mentioned that nobody has any responsibility towards the accuracy of those numbers.

Let me clarify something. Many websites put up “consensus numbers” which is simply a tally of posts, contests, etc. of where the traffic on that website, or group of websites, would be betting, if they were placing money.

I shouldn’t have to explain too much about the difference between what one would play, if one were betting, and what one would actually play if money was at stake. Often times there is a difference between picking a team for fun or contest, and actually putting your money where your typing fingers are.

This difference makes many of these consensus numbers worthless. A more valuable piece of information would be what bettors are actually buying. SportsInsights offers a service that gives you the actual percentage of bets placed, not the dollar amount, for each game. When it says 65% of the bets are on Seattle, it means that 65% of the tickets at the participating books are on Seattle. I think ESPN may use them.

One way bettors use this information is when comparing it to line movements. In general, the betting marketplace comprises a large betting public betting a small percentage of the money. They write a lot of tickets, but the amounts are small when compared to the small percentage of bettors and syndicates plays that make up most of the actual money wagered.

So when, say, 75% of the tickets written are on the home team, but that line moves towards the road team, we have what they call Reverse Line Movement. Usually, but not always, this indicates larger money plays, which moved the line, are being made by bettors from that small percentage group.

The books understand this and often use line movements to not only protect themselves from risk, but also to confuse bettors trying to navigate the marketplace. Books work with oddsmakers to even use movement to draw money, or make it flow, a specific direction.

So what does this have to do with tonight’s game? This thread has been about analyzing the marketplace. You have seen me explain things about the market, as well as use unnamed metrics to guide the posts and plays. While I have Seattle winning by 10 points, I have metrics that indicate this moneyline will fail. Further, based on analysis that goes much further than this game alone, I believe the books have employed some of the techniques above over the weeks to basically sell plays to bettors, in what seems to be preparation for a big upset. One example would the attempt to sell certain groups the San Francisco 49ers, when they played Green Bay. Indeed, GB had a rougher time in Santa Clara than their other games and SF tightened up a bit from their earlier debacles. But in the end the favorite prevailed.

There are other examples, and other techniques used, but my point is that a larger picture indicates the markets are hiding an upset. When working with the NFL, sniffing out these upsets can require far more patience than the other markets. In general, the required patience for the NFL is much more than other leagues and, to make matters worse, the markets offer temptation after temptation to try a bettor’s patience.

My metrics indicate patience is running thin for certain results and a 10 point line is designed to force certain bettors to pass on the side and lay almost prohibitively on the obvious choice, Seattle to win. As far as public and sharp money are concerned, it stands to reason most all of them like the Seattle to win this game.

Sure, it’s fine do go with the sharps over the long haul, but we’ve seen, a few times now, my market analysis make the sharp line just a little sharper…something I addressed very earlier in this thread.

I have seen this process develop over nearly 4 full weeks and have gone ahead with my market metrics and look to settle the brewing situation with a result of Detroit Lions +10 and +450 over the Seattle Seahawks.

It’s not bold because it’s not the CFL, but some turnovers leading to points for Detroit and a potentially struggling Seattle offense could make this a close enough game. Shit, the NFL has many ways to bring us the unlikely 10 point upset, let’s see if they use on tonight.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Looks like heavy pressure is pulling that line off of the 10.

It usually takes a bit of money to do that on Monday night.

Here's a helpful link.

http://www.thespread.com/nfl-footbal...t#.Umv_QD3n_IU

[HeeluvaGuy]

Just realized there is a game tonight and am only able to get the numbers for that game out right now. For tonight I have:

OTT -6.5 and 61.3

GL!

[jane2geo]

Been watching and reading for several weeks.
This is the best thread I’ve come across in quite some time.
My modest model also gives Ottawa the edge at -5

Hamilton -2
Calgary pk
BC -1

[mjn79]

Ottawa has had a short week again, 2nd game in 5 nights. I like Ottawa too but the short rest worries me a bit.

[KVB]

Unlike the 4 games a week of the past 15 weeks, week 16 brings us 5 games. Toronto, who was off twice in the last 3 weeks, will play tonight and again next Monday. For tonight’s game between Toronto and Ottawa, I have a predicted score that is virtually the same as when these two teams met a couple of weeks ago. In that game I had made a bit of a case for Toronto and went against it losing the Ottawa bet.

I have a predicted score of Ottawa winning by over 40 points to Toronto’s 17. Despite the result of the last game, I have the same predicted score. Most models seem to once again have Ottawa to win but by less than I do. This time, instead of a 2.5 point favorite, the line opened as a pick ‘em, ticked towards Ottawa -1, came back to the pick ‘em, and now we see the market leaning towards Toronto.

In this spot I am not in favor of this pick ‘em line. The books don’t give the unsophisticated public a “hint” by showing a favorite in either case. With money appearing to go back and forth and with this being the first game of the week I think it’s best to pass on the side and even the money line here. Sure, Ottawa may get the recent revenge at home, but it’s not worth the bet.

The Total, on the other hand, may be a different story. While many forecasts agree that Ottawa could win but differ by the amount, these forecasts also differ on the total. I have a predicted score of more than 57 points and forecasts vary from 47 points to over 60 points. This line opened at 53.5, ticked up to 54 and trades in that range.

These two teams have gone Over the total each time they’ve played this year. The Total lines have opened higher with each game and have ticked upwards each time. In each game I could identify pressures on the Under, despite the line movement. The line has opened higher this week and stayed. Despite the fact that I once again see quite a bit pressure on the Under, I predict that books will keep this line high, or even send it to 54.5 in what is essentially manipulation.

Certain groups of bettors, which contain both unsophisticated and more advanced players, have recently been burned by the markets and the play on the field. I believe, and have evidence, that the money will begin to flow in the direction of the decisions these players make and will join them by picking up UNDER 54 (-105) for Toronto Argonauts versus Ottawa Redblacks.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Not surprisingly, there are some 54.5 lines out there already. I have added to the position with UNDER 54.5 (-110) for Toronto Argonauts versus Ottawa Redblacks.

This is the first game of the last quarter of the season. Things can get really crazy this time of year, let’s see if we can get ahead to start the quarter.

Good Luck.

[drfunkmaster]

argos are a pk now

[KVB]

Just realized there is a game tonight and am only able to get the numbers for that game out right now. For tonight I have:

OTT -6.5 and 61.3

GL!

Truthfully, when it comes to scheduling, it seems like every now and then certain games, with certain types of market compression factors involved are scheduled at odd times. We see this in the WNBA quite a bit and other markets where the first game will, say, go off at 8 AM (Maybe 11 eastern) and bettors open the scoreboard to find the play they liked winning or just have won. They "just miss" the game.

There can be many reasons for a hiccup in the scheduling, but it seems like when there is, the early bird gets the worm.

Take the Under tonight.

[PorkChop]

Can someone tell me why is this line a pick'em.

[KVB]

Here are some of my thoughts on the pick ‘em; a line that has bothered me from the beginning.

It could be a play on public perception. Some of the simplest types of lines one can create put this game about even. Further, two weeks ago Toronto handled the business, beating Ottawa for the second time, and they had a bye week last week. Ottawa played last Thursday and plays again tonight.

Combining these two it feels like the books are playing to a general crowd. Teams have done well after a bye and this is common stuff.

On a less common side, sure Toronto won the first game in Toronto, but Ottawa covered and it was a swing game…that could matter. Also, as far my predictions are concerned, they are split 50 on the moneyline, side, and Total between the first two games.

I have other metrics splitting this game and, if the line were to move too far in favor of Toronto, I would strongly consider an Ottawa play.

It’s not so much about value, as that has rarely mattered this season (but is sure to when it really counts going forward, think playoffs) but more about reading the marketplace.

For now I’ll pass, but we’ll see.

[HeeluvaGuy]

FWIW, and this is truly anecdotal, I had TOR and under last time and split, winning the side and losing the total. I'm pleasantly surprised to see that my model flipped sides on this one. My hunch is that the BYE/short week combination is what's holding this at a pick.

Despite the sage advice of KVB I'm taking:

OTT +102

GL to all!