Week 3 starts Thursday.
8 for 8 underdogs covered every game so far
8 for 8 underdogs covered every game so far
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This is correct.
This also means I will play all favs this weekend.Comment -
take a few favs men
law of averagesComment -
First few weeks always a crapshoot.Comment -
Like the Tigers couldn't go over again last-night? Sometimes we over-think the situation at hand.Comment -
On July 2nd Hamilton beat Winnipeg 52-26. Around the world, Hamilton opened as a favorite, by as many as 3 points in some cases. The line dropped to a pick ‘em and even hit Winnipeg -1 in the afternoon before the game. Vegas closed in most places as a pick ‘em while late Winnipeg pressure had many internet books closing with Winnipeg favored by as much as 1.5 in some places.
Most of the time, in Vegas, this line sat at Hamilton favored or a pick’em. Winnipeg was favored in the end online as Internet books did not adjust back to a pick ’em before game time; money was coming in on Winnipeg.
So was it an upset? Guess it depends on what line you had. This is the only game in this situation.
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This ends tonight. Ottawa +6. Edmonton without starter Reilly and backup Nichols is a big dropoff.Comment -
Sorry, continues tonight. HahaComment -
Yea I agree with icecapper. Dog tonight ML as well
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I will follow along. Ottawa!Comment -
I've posted before about the markets, basically the bettors, catching up to reality in terms of scores and team comparisons. Early in the season it can be a heyday or minefield for all types of bettors. For this early in the season, oddsmakers in the CFL have done a great job so far in predicting where the bettors are going put their money. It has been to the benefit of the bookmakers for sure. Although most of the time these are the same guys.
After all, when the moneyline is concerned, the betting is balanced, and in view of a “base betting” math, books make no profit when favorites when. Books only profit against the money line when underdogs win.
I’ve also posted about why books don’t always strive for equal action, and they take a position. I believe this happened in the game I posted about above, as the books continued to take Winnipeg action, securing a position in Hamilton…the season’s biggest blowout.
As with any sport, it usually takes a few weeks for the sharper money to kick into the markets and help tighten the lines. In my opinion, that as only partially begun and there seems to be some softness in the lines. This is difficult to judge, as it is early in the season and there are so many ways to handicap.
My early season methods tell me that the opening line of 47 for tonight’s Ottawa vs. Edmonton game actually opened too low. I believe the bettors are still following the lead of the oddsmakers, making it easier for the bookmakers, and are even reinforcing their own decisions. Perception of a lower scoring game is given with a 47, which has been bought down to 45.5.
Edmonton is coming off of a bye and has had a little more time to prepare the offense. Ottawa is rolling and just may pay you underdog backer for a third straight time.
There simply isn’t enough information for me to predict a score, even a rough one, which will be more valid than what the oddsmakers are already doing. I do however, believe that the books have taken a position in the over and lowered the line to a point of balance, even ticking it from 45 to 45.5.
I don’t think real sharp money pushed that line down through 46 and I believe smarter handicappers pulled it off of 45.
I’m taking the OVER 45.5 (-108) for the Ottawa vs. Edmonton game. I doubt there is enough money to get that to 46, but we’ll see.
Good Luck
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Good callI've posted before about the markets, basically the bettors, catching up to reality in terms of scores and team comparisons. Early in the season it can be a heyday or minefield for all types of bettors. For this early in the season, oddsmakers in the CFL have done a great job so far in predicting where the bettors are going put their money. It has been to the benefit of the bookmakers for sure. Although most of the time these are the same guys.
After all, when the moneyline is concerned, the betting is balanced, and in view of a “base betting” math, books make no profit when favorites when. Books only profit against the money line when underdogs win.
I’ve also posted about why books don’t always strive for equal action, and they take a position. I believe this happened in the game I posted about above, as the books continued to take Winnipeg action, securing a position in Hamilton…the season’s biggest blowout.
As with any sport, it usually takes a few weeks for the sharper money to kick into the markets and help tighten the lines. In my opinion, that as only partially begun and there seems to be some softness in the lines. This is difficult to judge, as it is early in the season and there are so many ways to handicap.
My early season methods tell me that the opening line of 47 for tonight’s Ottawa vs. Edmonton game actually opened too low. I believe the bettors are still following the lead of the oddsmakers, making it easier for the bookmakers, and are even reinforcing their own decisions. Perception of a lower scoring game is given with a 47, which has been bought down to 45.5.
Edmonton is coming off of a bye and has had a little more time to prepare the offense. Ottawa is rolling and just may pay you underdog backer for a third straight time.
There simply isn’t enough information for me to predict a score, even a rough one, which will be more valid than what the oddsmakers are already doing. I do however, believe that the books have taken a position in the over and lowered the line to a point of balance, even ticking it from 45 to 45.5.
I don’t think real sharp money pushed that line down through 46 and I believe smarter handicappers pulled it off of 45.
I’m taking the OVER 45.5 (-108) for the Ottawa vs. Edmonton game. I doubt there is enough money to get that to 46, but we’ll see.
Good Luck
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ESPN2 televising the Montreal @ Winnipeg game tonight...
leaning Winnipeg to open up the offense and take advantage
of the new rules protecting the receiver. Winnipeg seems to
have a more explosive offense, although I know it's early in season
so nothing big, standard play on the home team ATS -3
talk me out of this ?Comment -
So....what do I bet on?
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You guys fukked me last night, not cool!Comment -
Winnipeg QB Drew Willy coming off a bad concussion. Montreal D will eat him up.Comment -
changed my mind.. minor bet on Montreal +3 ..... Cato going to try and light it up
then like you said Drew Willy is under a lot of scrutiny for the concussion.
i want to root for Cato. Thought he would have been drafted for sure.
need something tonight. nothing else looks any better.Comment -
Yes Cato has all the tools to thrive in the Canadian game. Teams going in different directions I like Montreal ML.Comment -
Laid a bet on MTL +1.5 at even money...you guys talked me into it
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Montreal +3 and ML upgraded to "standard" playComment -
Yesterday OVER play cashed by halftime...lol. It may not have been a large position, but I still think the books took a position in the OVER yesterday. They often have a clue.
I've got Montreal unloading on Winnipeg but I'm still going to pass. Winnipeg may be looking to bounce back from the home opener. For the total I have penciled in a prediction of 53.5 points...exactly where the market is. Another pass for the first CFL game tonight for me.
Snowball good call watching from the sidelines in golf today, I did the same.
Behind today, looking into the later CFL game.
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Cato came out like a deer in the headlights. Welcome to pro football.Comment -
MTL playing like shit LOLComment -
Punt block and Pick 6 tds dont help.Comment -
Interesting look at that total tonight in Winnipeg. Looks like the sharks are not quite dialed in yet, good post yesterday KVB, Sorry Badger.Comment -
No long write up here, I'm taking BC -3 (-105) vs Saskatchewan. The market just smells of it. Saskatchewan is going to fall to 0-3 after tonight.
It just makes sense for CFL right now.
Good cover with Montreal fellas.
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