CFL

[KVB]

Fawk, one team has already gone ahead and adjustments made, and the offenses came early.

All this premature ejaculation is sure to take us out of any decent halftime offerings.

Should have just posted the Over.

[Ra77er]

[KVB]

Sure enough, a tie game at halftime with Calgary -4 points as the halftime line. That was my original game line for tonight. In this game each team had three full weeks of data to draw from and the books are right where they want to be.

No bets tonight but it was a good weekend.

With a full four weeks under our belts we should see the line get sharper...and the men begin to get separated from the boys.

May have to consider getting down sooner as the weeks progress.

[KVB]

I feel Calgary -225 is far too expensive and saw the line drop to -3.5 (-120). These bets are not well priced but I do believe Calgary wins the 2nd half by 4 points tonight.

It would make sense.

[KVB]

A goodnight to pass. The only decent bet was Calgary -225 for the 2nd half, and that was horribly priced.

Whoever helped bounce that line off of 50.5 got themselves a great line. This should be considered going forward. The lines will get tighter and price and number will really start to matter to maximize profit.

As always, shop for the best lines possible.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

uggghh what? only good bet was calgary -225? jesus fukking christ pal. they barely won with a fg. how about just taking the dogs until the favs start covering? seems like you never bet the dogs?

[KVB]

uggghh what? only good bet was calgary -225? jesus fukking christ pal. they barely won with a fg…

Yes, I still think the only decent bet tonight was the 2^nd half Calgary to win, regardless of what the result of that bet was.

And whether they win by one point or twenty, with a field goal or a sack, a touchdown pass or a pick six, a $100 bet is still only going to pay $44.44. And if they lose, in this circumstance, I would still bet the same way again.

In order, and although I passed on all of them, I think the best bets of the night were:

1. Calgary -225 to win the 2^nd half.
2. Over 51.5 (closer) for game.
3. Calgary -3.5 (-120) for the 2^nd half.

Mind you, I passed on each of these and considered Calgary 2^nd half to be decent, but the price was wrong…the vig is simply too high. Unfortunately, the take back on the underdog was too low…more vig, or juice, for the book.

For a disciplined gambler, using a money management program, there is nowhere to turn.

Contrary to the common misconception of gamblers, especially at SBR, there is juice built into that chalk as well as the underdog and it is paid by the winning bettor.

Winners are the only ones who pay the juice, or vigorish, losers just lose their bet. Regardless of what anyone says, this is the reality.

Of those three bets above, only one of them paid. To get that winner you had to pay too much, enough to hurt the long haul profit for the risk. It’s early in the season to really assess this with a lot of confidence, but I have solid metrics.

It makes sense that you have to pay more for the evident winner.

[KVB]

….how about just taking the dogs until the favs start covering? seems like you never bet the dogs?

True, I have posted no dogs in this thread but here you go…

I’m not really tracking the posts, and I should only go with what’s posted but since it is early in the season I remember what I’ve posted and can easily go back so let’s see. This would be a good review.

There have been 16 CFL games this season offering 48 bets (sides, totals, and moneylines). We won’t count halftime bets but would if we were into more mature markets. I have posted 7 individual CFL plays since the season began (I put them in BOLD).

On Juy 4^th and 5^th I posted two plays in one game and a favorite moneyline:

You trying to say you need a play?

Take the Ottawa Redblacks +3 or to win at +130 if you can get it, the line is dropping. At this point, Ottawa RedBlacks +2.5 and +125 is what you may get. Take it…

JJ I hope you got a piece of Ottawa yesterday, it was all good down the stretch.

There's another CFL game today. Now don't base bet JJ, just bet the same unit, regardless of price, and whether you think there is juice or not, and let the bookie's risk jump around, keep your risk the same and; if you hit the upset yesterday in CFL, then buy Saskatchewan Roughriders -155 for the win over the Toronto Argonauts.

Go ahead and take it to -160 if you must.

In this thread I have posted in BOLD two Total plays, one favorite point spread, and one favorite money line.
I also gave an under “for the gamblers” that was not in bold.

In bold, I’ve posted opinions on 14.5% of the total available bets so far. That’s not bad for early season, whether they won or lost, consider it a gift:

There were 2 favorite money line bets vs. 1 underdog money line. There was one -3 and one +3. There were 2 Total Bets (1 over, 1 under). I guess it depends how you classify the two plays on one underdog, I used the term “or” when posted.

In the end you’re right Kahn, in this thread, started by porkchop, you haven’t seen any underdog betting from me. And if you count that first bet as just one underdog play (there could be reason to view it that way) then 1 out 3 money line bets are underdogs so far this season.

With so few plays it’s hard to call it a bias.

I did this to show analysis like this can be helpful throughout the season. The best, most unique piece of information you have is created by tracking your own bets. Even the sharpest syndicate in the world doesn’t have that information.

Learning how to manipulate and then use that data is one key to succeeding with any confidence in sports betting.

[KVB]

i have no clue about cfl but just bet the dogs. the dogs might've covered every fukking game.

i would never take -3 on any of the cfl games due to their whacked ass ot rule.

dog covers again.

dog cashes again...

damn i chickened out going with weennipig.

…how about just taking the dogs until the favs start covering? seems like you never bet the dogs?

I am a handicapper. I handicap each issue and compare it to the market price. I search for a defined edge but sometimes just parse out a situational edge. I could never take a bankroll and just blindly bet underdogs, favorites, home, away, etc. without first creating my own line and considering the price and lines.

Make no mistake, my line and market view will often notice when the books are either failing to catch up to the markets or may be choosing not to catch up. In these cases you must identify this trend early enough to make it worthwhile and should only dedicate separate amount of bankroll to pursue the bets.

Further, some of my lines take into account the pressure caused by ATS results as the season moves forward. I can even make a pretty good line just based on past overall market results, but the current market price is what matters.

If eight underdogs have covered in a row and you say “look, it’s always underdogs,” and then bet the next underdog because of this then a couple of things happen:

When you lose, all you can say is that favorites were due. You have no idea why you lost.

When you win you may gain confidence in the decision-making process even though it has obvious faults. Also, when you win, you likely were shorted odds on your payout, the juice you pay when you win, because the market pressures are making the underdog less valuable.

You would never know how much you are shorted if you didn’t create your own valid line.

If you don’t understand how much juice you are getting charged then these sharp players, who hone the books, will eat you alive in the short and long haul.

With very, very few exceptions, always consider the line offered before blindly betting anything: underdogs or favorites.

[KVB]

…how about just taking the dogs until the favs start covering?...

What does this even mean?

What if the next game is a favorite? Have they started to cover yet? What if the game after that is a dog, is it still the underdogs? What if I lose to dogs in a row? Did the favorites start covering?

What if it alternates favorite, dog, favorite, dog for 20 bets? Did the favorites start covering? I know I lost a lot in commission, that’s for sure.

What if the dogs cover 11 out of the next 21, but the favorite covers the next game? Did the favorites start covering?

Hey, I’ve got an idea. I should just bet bigger during win streaks and less during losing streaks, right?

Not exactly, I’ve posted this before and will say it again; you can never tell when you are in a win streak or losing streak, you can only tell when you just had one. On a macro scale you might be able to determine when you are winning and losing overall, but that’s a thorny bush to pull plays from.

Hell, I’ll just do one better…instead of betting dogs until the favorites start covering, I’ll just bet the dogs. When the favorites are going to cover, well, I won’t bet those. I should have a pretty good record by the end.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

tl;dr

you like to bloviate. keep it simple pal. in the end all you have to do is pick winners.

take dogs until the favs start covering. you can thank me later.

[Ra77er]

GK that was rude and uncalled for. This is why vines are so popular on the internet these days. SMH

KVB continue with the market analysis and well thought out posts on CFL. GK is a trend bettor and that's okay, lets stay focused here.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

Funny, I actually had suggested gamblers take the Over tonight, but erased that line in the post thinking I may have a more solid, less speculative halftime bet. There are a lot of points early.

I feel Calgary -225 is far too expensive and saw the line drop to -3.5 (-120). These bets are not well priced but I do believe Calgary wins the 2nd half by 4 points tonight.

It would make sense.

raller, i don't like bullshit. this guy comes in here with bunch of words then after the game says something ludicrous.

i'm not denying that kvb knows his cfl but you need a lot more than just the knowledge of the game to beat the books.

listen pal, if knowledge of games is all you need, all the analysts would quit their jobs and make millions betting on sports but as we already know that's just not the case.

this is how i look at sports betting. when i was younger, my ego got in the way and blamed the players and luck instead of my capping skills.

nowadays, i dropped my ego and let the smarter people dictate the outcome. and i consider myself way above average in intelligence.

take it for what it's worth but if dogs are covering, keep on taking them and don't justify -225 to be the correct bet after the game is over.

anyway, i'm done with this thread...

[Ghenghis Kahn]

i forgot to add this quote to my post above.

A goodnight to pass. The only decent bet was Calgary -225 for the 2nd half, and that was horribly priced.

Whoever helped bounce that line off of 50.5 got themselves a great line. This should be considered going forward. The lines will get tighter and price and number will really start to matter to maximize profit.

As always, shop for the best lines possible.

[Ra77er]

GK solid points, thank you for posting that. Do not be done with this thread, we are early in the season.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

raller, i'm not gonna pretend to know about cfl cause i don't. i can't even name one player in the league to be honest.

i'm just gonna ride this wave and when the favs start covering, which could be next week or week after that, i'll be done with cfl for the year. gl with your wagers.

[KVB]

...don't justify -225 to be the correct bet after the game is over...

I said this at halftime regarding the halftime bet, before the second half started.

I feel Calgary -225 is far too expensive and saw the line drop to -3.5 (-120). These bets are not well priced but I do believe Calgary wins the 2nd half by 4 points tonight.

It would make sense.

This was not said after the game was over. I was saying Calgary to win the half is a good outcome, but the price not right. This was not said after the game, this was said before the 2nd half began.

I don’t think I’ve lost a pick in this thread and have given some pretty good insight to anyone actually handicapping games.

Picking winners may be all that followers that don’t do their own work want, and I’ve given some, but my hope was to help some who want to learn.

I don’t claim something was right or wrong after the fact, I never have. I posted those three plays, or leans, before they went off or right after, in the case of the total.

You may be bothered that I know the correct bet isn’t always the one that wins. And this is something that separates successful bettors from the rest.

I can see you just want to tail and not learn, and if you can’t understand why you are getting winners, maybe its best you leave it alone.

Like I said JJ, this thread may be too edgy and possibly advanced for you. If that’s the case now, you’ll be lost when I teach you to make an actual line.

I understand some things are wordy can be vague and even out of the box, but often the stage is set for a lesson in gambling. I also understand that you must read what I write closely; one reason posted plays are in bold as opposed to thoughts.

For posters like Kahn, who just want to tail yet must espouse their intelligence, just read what’s in bold or don’t read at all.

I cannot teach someone who’s already figured it all out, considers himself too smart or who is unwilling to learn because he already learned from younger years.

My advice is to never stop learning.

If this thread has harmed you or caused you much distress, I apologize and can only say I can’t force you to read it.

If you don’t like a thread with winning plays, as this one seems to be, again I apologize.

Good Luck

[KVB]

tl;dr

you like to bloviate. keep it simple pal. in the end all you have to do is pick winners.

take dogs until the favs start covering. you can thank me later.

How would you know if I bloviate? You admitted those posts were too long for you to even read. Those posts are educational and the words are valuable to anyone who wants to become a winning sports bettor.

I may have thought out loud a bit during the last game making some of Kahn's posts valid, but repeating the same losing advice and saying to thank you later is ridiculous.

I have no beef with GK, but for someone claiming above average intelligence; this post by him strongly suggests otherwise.

I've capped the games this week and even picked up part of a position on a couple of games. I was going to give a broad overview of the week then get more specific with games, indicating where the bits of sharp money are going and where the unsophisticated money, like Kahn's is hitting the markets.

But it's late, and being reminded that I'm posting to so many who, either due to inability or stubborn refusal, simply won't learn kills my motivation. I've taught many handicappers and have seen this dozens of times and it isn't surprising so maybe it's just late.

[Jayvegas420]

Edit:

GK is just having a bad week.

[KVB]

One way to look at the market participants, particularly the public bettors, is to view them as two types. There are streak riders and streak breakers. These bettors either heavily rely on or ignore the “due factor.” When it comes to ATS statistics, commonly used but rarely useful (a topic of another thread all together), if bettors are paying attention, they can see that the “due factor” gets built into the opening line.

If bettors are creating their own line, they can begin to see which type of bettor is hitting the market harder and see when those bettors are in line with sharper money. They can see when the market swings too far in one direction and take advantage of the value created.

For the most part, this is what old school professionals mean when they say “go against the public.”

One more thing, whether you have or agree with any explanation for it, you’ll find that when multiple types of bettors align themselves, there’s often trouble. To profit from this knowledge requires tremendous patience and discipline.

Let’s look at Calgary visiting Ottawa in the first game Friday. Just like the last game last week, which could be a cause for concern, I have Calgary a small favorite. This is the only game this week in which both teams have played 4 full games. There are two games where one team has played 4 games and the other 3 games and one game where both teams have played 3 games. When you consider the flow of money through the 4 games, this is worth noting.

Four weeks of data in either NFL or CFL is all that is really needed to create a basic, fairly solid line to which you can add relevant enhancements to sharpen that line. The sharpest basic line I can make this week is in this game. We have a basically average offense in Calgary going against a better than average defense in Ottawa. For defense, Calgary is basically average, a notch below, while Ottawa’s offense is as below average as their defense is above.

I’ll go more into team ratings as more teams get their 4^th game in but suffice to say I have this game as Calgary 17 to 19 points versus Ottawa’s 17. I have this game as almost a pick with a slight edge to Calgary, the away team. The weakness here is that it is still early in the season to ascertain Ottawa’s home field advantage or disadvantage.

While Calgary may be 3-1 in the win loss columns, they have failed to cover a spread this year. The market is ripe with unsophisticated bettors who, despite not making their own line, are sure this will even out. Likewise, there are bettors who will bet against Calgary “until they start to cover,” SBR has plenty of these bettors. These bettors will ride or break regardless of the offered line. The oddsmakers and books look to take advantage of this.

The bettors looking for the 3-1 Calgary Stampeders to cover a spread are winning the line war. Despite this game being closer to a pick, the bookies, under pressure from streak breakers, take advantage and open at about -5 points. Sure enough, early action brought it -5.5. While these bettors may ultimately win the bet, they are getting the worst of it and the books know it.

Expect sharper money to press that line down towards 5 by game time Friday. So some may say take the underdog, well I’m not so sure there’s value on the plus side just yet, but other sharps may disagree.

Notice my basic prediction has a total of only 34 to 36 points. This is far below the opening line of 48 and we have seen that line drop to 47 and 47.5 around the world. I believe there will be further downward pressure and already missed the mark at Under 48 points. I have picked up UNDER 47.5 points and UNDER 47 points, both at -110 for the Calgary Stampeders vs. the Ottawa Redblacks.

This line will likely drop below 47 but still may have value. Under 46.5 is still an acceptable bet and I would have to see the rest of the market at that time to determine if Under 46 is worth it.

This is the first game this week and whether the bets win or lose, the money will start to flow. I am confident a loss in this game will be recuperated and a win could lead to another win.

I believe the words in this post are all valuable to understanding what is going in this marketplace and if I appeared to bloviate, it was probably the pastrami sandwich and beans I ate last night.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Edit:

GK is just having a bad week.

Fair enough.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

KVB, have you been following Calgary TT movement? Sitting at 25.5. My odds service doesn't show TT's

[High3rEl3m3nt]

I like the total play...public % is to edged to the over (60%).

[High3rEl3m3nt]

KVB, offhand, do you know what some of the CFL limits are at the big shops on overnight or earlier spreads and totals?

[KVB]

KVB, have you been following Calgary TT movement? Sitting at 25.5. My odds service doesn't show TT's

I haven’t been tracking the actual movements of the team total but that line of 25.5 is interesting. Scores of 25, 24, 17 and a host in between are all very likely for this Calgary team. And given Ottawa’s defensive rating, the under on that total looks appealing.
Here’s the problem I’m having, I can’t verify an edge on this TT and don’t want to bold it for that reason. That said, like before, it may be a bet for the gamblers. (I gamble too, sometimes).

Now let’s look at the risk. It wouldn’t take much to push over that number of 25.5. Is Ottawa’s defense what the rating says? If we look deeper we see they gave up 46 points to Edmonton two weeks ago and in the rematch last week only gave up 23. The adjusted, but had the benefit of playing the same team back to back.

One small surprise by Calgary and that TT gets blown, yet the game Under could still be safe.

Either way, I would expect to see that 25.5 press down, along with the game total, but it will be hard to drop further…I consider 24 and 25 a couple of “key numbers” as you would see in NFL handicapping. Getting on and off of that 25 is an obstacle for books, it will require some money.

Sorry to write so much but I want to convey a bit of my thought process, if it doesn’t make sense now, it should later in the season.

I welcome any insight, especially on halves and team totals. You got me thinking in directions I wasn’t earlier…this makes us all better cappers.

Thanks.

[KVB]

KVB, offhand, do you know what some of the CFL limits are at the big shops on overnight or earlier spreads and totals?

These markets are bigger than many think. Shit, If I can make a line there are some muthafukas that can move the markets.

Expect decent numbers. You can see regular big game limits 5k and more on game day and about half during the week. I know 5 Dimes takes $2500 during the week and you can refresh and bet again...until you beat them...lol.

These are good size markets when in full swing, check with your individual houses, you'd be surprised. After this week, value will start disappearing quickly from these lines and they will move early.

It's ok, we'll still have plenty of opportunity this season as these teams round robin each other for 20 weeks.

Optimism is good!

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Thanks and I was hoping that was the case.

[KVB]

While the first game Friday features the only game this week between two teams who have four weeks of stats this season. Game two sets us up for the weakest, most unsophisticated line of the week. Toronto goes into British Colombia and each team has only played three games.

My rough line has Toronto scoring 30 to 31 points while BC gets 24 to 25 points. This is simply too close to the opening total of 54.5.

While the total seems dead on, once again the oddsmakers have the “wrong” team favored as BC has opened as a 3.5 point favorite. Those unsophisticated line makers have indeed been emboldened in recent weeks and bettors, like Kahn from above, are still hitting the dogs. This line has seen -3 and will likely drop further.

This is the final game this season between two teams who have both played less than 4 games each. Early season bettors have found themselves very successful when aligned with the underdog and the books, in my opinion are about to get some back.

The line has been set to trap trend bettors and those who use means instead of medians to handicap. While Toronto has covered all three spreads they’ve faced, those trying to get Toronto to fail ATS are outnumbered by the line ignorant dog bettors and the early season line creators.

As the line drops below 3 public steam will pile on and I believe the underdog will find itself a losing bet. In my opinion the books are taking a position in British Colombia.

This could be one of the signs a gambler like Khan could take into account as he determines when “the favorites start to cover.”

I’m picking up British Colombia -3 (+102) as well as British Colombia -2.5 (-115) over and may consider a larger position as things develop tomorrow.

Good Luck

[KVB]

I’m picking up British Colombia -3 (+102) as well as British Colombia -2.5 (-115) over and may consider a larger position as things develop tomorrow.

Good Luck

That's supposed to say "...British Colombia -2.5 (-115) over the Toronto Argonauts..."

Random mistakes are cool, but leaving a word like "over" hanging could lead to some confusion.

[KVB]

I have another note on Friday’s first game between Calgary and Ottawa. The line has dropped to 46.5 in most places. I’ve talked about the downward pressure on this line from 48 but know it’s not all one side, there are bettors seeking the OVER in this game. Calgary, while not covering for four straight games has also recorded the UNDER in all four games.

Streak riders and streak breakers do the same with totals as they do with sides. The difference is in public perception. When a team goes UNDER several times in a row, subjective bettors find it harder to say “this team is going to bust out with points” than they do when looking for a team with a winning record to finally cover a spread. Even so, in time there is pressure as eventually, the team will be involved in the OVER.

These same bettors know that every game last week was an UNDER, and, rightfully, look to see a market rebound of sorts this week.
Eventually the OVER bettors will help support the line and keep it from falling. These bettors don’t have to be wrong, but their style will not withstand the long haul. The sharp players honing the books will eat them alive.

[KVB]

Saturday’s game has Winnipeg, with four games under their belt, against Edmonton, with only three weeks of stats to work with. While Winnipeg has a more solid rating than Edmonton both teams appear to be about average in offense. Winnipeg’s defense is also pretty average but Edmonton, in three games seems to be a bit stronger on defense.

This difference is enough to give me a rough prediction of Edmonton 24 to 27 points versus Winnipeg’s 17 points. With Edmonton winning by 7 to 10 points in the prediction, it makes sense that the opening line of Edmonton -4.5 moved quickly to -5.5 and is approaching -6 points.

I’m not overly concerned with this line moving so close to my line, thus losing “value” because there may not have been value to start with. If you take the lower predicted spread of 7 points we can see that 4.5 and 5.5 are just not far off. If you give the home team more credit and go with a 10 point margin, well you may have a bet with these numbers, but the market isn’t making this bet too appealing.

With a predicted total of 41 to 44 points we may once again have a better option with the total. Given the line opened at 51.5 rose quickly to 52.5, then dropped right back to 51.5, I think we have some time to make a decision on this game. The early increase could be representing unsophisticated Edmonton backers (there are a lot of them) seeking that good OVER for this week as last week was all UNDERS. That line movement was quickly erased.

Sunday’s game between Hamilton (3 games played this year) and Saskatchewan (4 games played this year) also may present a total bet. I have between 57 and 61 total points. The line opened at 53.5 and quickly moved to 55.5. We’ll address the point spread later.

For these two games I believe the books are protecting themselves from early OVER action, awaiting more information regarding the flow of money for the week. Clearly both games have endured the streak breaking OVER bettors, countering last week’s UNDERS.

Saturday’s line adjusted back after the move, towards a sharper line while Sunday’s line stayed at 55.5, also tending towards a sharper line. With this basic early analysis in mind, we’ll approach these games once we get more information.

[k0karn]

[PorkChop]

Line on Cal/Ott dropped to 46.5

[Jayvegas420]

What's the 1st game tonight, BC or Calgary?
I assume its Ottawa/Calgary since you said BC is at home.

[PorkChop]

Calgary @ Ottawa
Toronto @ B.C