Ya that is painful kick and punt return TD's? Both 100+ yards unreal...come on Calgary need one more here to get the cover.
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I'll take the push.....both special teams touchdowns were literally up the middle, unacceptable along with a two point conversion and a 5 yard saftey to magically push the spread. Good pickup on 11 though. Happy (fortunate) to lose only bet in CFL.Last edited by Ra77er; 09-19-15, 12:26 AM.Comment -
Awful game, it had all the makings for a good under. Both teams had troubles offensively, but as mentioned above, special teams breakdowns caused the score to go way over.Comment -
Yeah, that line moved to 12.5 and I stayed off. Turns out 11.5 and 11 were good. We are certainly due for some close ones in the CFL. My scores are very close to the lines in 3 of the 4 games, telling me the market is (markets are) sharpening, at least for this week. That's one of the reasons I was going to pass this week. I had a bad feeling about tonight. It is good to get away with 2-1 on plays, even if only 1-1 on the issues themselves. It's a good thing we were given the opportunity to get back in on the sides with those numbers.
Isn’t it funny how the trading side of this thread keeps finding a way to profit? And remember, the goal is profit.
Don’t sweat the returns for TDs. It just goes to show you that these are all professionals. If a job needs to get done, and there are no more QB’s left, you can bet a return or two is in order…lol.
Looking back, I threw together some decent analysis about this game for the thread. I get the feeling things are going to get tougher here and should have cause for concern with the Edmonton pick. We have seen some shifty line movements of late and the markets really are looking like choppy waters in terms of breaking them down.
After paying out the Calgary favorite and the Over and viewing other unnamed metrics I get a little nervous about some of that Edmonton position.
And about the markets seeming to sharpen bit, you can bet it’s no coincidence that things change a little as the NFL gets underway. Maybe I’ll post more about the nature of the sophistication of that “spillover” money. It may not be what many think.
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Life got in the way a bit this week, so I'm obviously way behind. Here's the catchup for how the raw numbers are doing:
Sides Totals W L W L Week 5 3 1 1 3 Week 6 4 0 1 3 Week 7 2 2 2 2 Week 8 1 3 3 1 Week 9 1 3 2 2 Week 10 1 3 3 1 Week 11 2 2 3 1 Week 12 3 1 2 2 Totals 17 15 17 15 Comment -
And here's what my numbers say for this week:
Side Total Calgary -19.4 42.2 Hamilton -8.3 45.8 Saskatchewan 8.9 57.9 Montreal -15.1 40.4 Comment -
What does everyone think about over 51.0 in Edmonton vs Hamilton?
Or possibly Hamtilon -6.0.Comment -
I agree with icecapper and I did want to address the Total for Friday’s game but it got late last night. Considering this was your post on the play I can only assume when you say a strong play was mentioned before you were talking about my posts.
Indeed, while I didn’t use the term strong, I did write…
There is a reason my metrics come out the way they do, they can produce winners. My metrics did anticipate and Over and it was a pretty “strong” play based on those metrics. If plays like this didn’t pay the Over, then bettors wouldn’t come to expect it; money would be harder to steer.
The nature of my posts this thread involves taking on the bettors and books, trading around models, and exploiting the books attempts to exploit bettors and betting behavior. Sometimes, in this strategy, we counter pressure. Sometime we win, sometime we lose. I can think of 4 losses, three in swing games, so far this season that have come from this strategy.
Fortunately, this thread affords those risks as it has seen far more wins than losses.
So while the Over was expected, and considered a strong play, I am ok countering that total and losing.
This doesn’t need to include icecapper by any means, but it is not only my belief, but a cold hard fact that most of those who recognized the ease of last night’s Over has likely already lost money this season, or will likely give back what they’ve won. It’s the nature of the bettor, the strategy, and the game.
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There are some other posts indicating these lines and line shifts are making me a bit nervous. I still lean toward the Over and may still post a play before game time.In all the Monday night Football action I forgot to post a play for the CFL. I hadn’t written anything on the play, but I bought Edmonton +7 (-120) for the Edmonton vs. Hamilton game. It’s not offered now, the line has moved, so I won’t put the play in bold for this thread. However, I did pick up Edmonton Eskimos +6 (-112) and Edmonton Eskimos +5.5 (-101) over Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
For this game I have predicted a score of Hamilton's 27 points to Edmonton’s 20 points. Even though there are many basic models that predict Hamilton scoring a little more I expected immediate pressure on Edmonton this week, even before the lines were released.
I also believed there would be an attempt to open this spread at a point that would cause some groups to pass. That said; I am not surprised that the line opened with Edmonton -6, ticked up toward the models to -7 and then was picked up by some houses there and as it dropped to 6.5 and 6 by other houses. It could be that 5.5 is a bottom here, at that time many models kick back in and the favorite gets hit, but it’s early to tell as this is game two this week and the first one on Saturday.
Indeed, due to certain unnamed metrics involving the markets, that initial push towards 7 could even have been manipulation by groups wanting a better number on the underdog side. In fact, a couple of things about this game could be said that you’ve heard before.
Now before you go saying “well, KVB always says this it doesn’t always happen, eventually it will” know that having answers in sports betting is one thing, but having the patience to let those answers come to you are another. In trading and analyzing the markets, failure when the trigger is pulled often just means there should have been patience.
Anyway, about the game…
First, getting the best of a point or even half point hasn’t mattered much this year. This is the type of game where, against the spread, it could.
Second, this is another game in which I see deception. Even though the second game starts 5 full hours later, this game could have a large lead evaporated in a comeback.
That leads to the third point. With the potential for the game I just described, there is high potential for the Over. That didn’t happen last time I said that, and you know the give and take of these markets.
This Total opened early at 52.5 and quickly moved toward my prediction of 47 points to 51.5 where almost everyone opened and it sits. In fact, many models approach but stay just below 50 points. The last meeting between these two brought 69 points and this could explain the higher opening but I don’t think the public perception was the oddsmaker’s fear.
Instead, I think the oddsmakers were offering the books some early protection from the Over because of the nature of the game. On this alone we should pick up the Over but I am going to wait. I think there will be further pressure on the Under in this game and will be interested to see if the books take it below 51. The question becomes whether or not the books need any Over money or are just fine where they sit. They could hold out until close to game time and then let it fall, we’ll see.
To understand my thinking, I’m not holding off in hopes of just getting a better line here. I’m also confirming my understanding of the line movement. As it stands, at 51.5 or even 51, it’s basically confirmed, but I feel I have little to lose by waiting.
While getting down early can always be touted, in terms of market analysis, I can’t stress enough the importance of processing information and time. The more time you have, the more information you can process.
Understanding where the line may be headed can help you decide on which issues you can take more time to process. Of course, first you have to have an idea of which issues need more time to make decision, which usually means the issues on which you need more information.
Good Luck
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I've been out of commission for the most part. Looking at today's games, I think I like Ottawa o24 for a small play.Comment -
Not sure about a play yet but let me get my numbers out there. I have Ottawa winning by ten points scoring 30 to Saskatchewan’s 20 points. That’s 50 points. The total opened at 50.5 had some movement down but essentially sits at 50.5 or 51. Once again, a theme for this week, and it sits too close to my line. Although we have game to watch, I am likely to pass on this Total bet.
Now this is the game this week where my predictions on the side and moneyline do differ from what’s offered. I have Ottawa winning. Remember, this is the second half of the season and we should see some things that are opposite the first half. The obvious is Saskatchewan finally winning games. We have seen some of that and may see more. It seems most models side with Ottawa here and while the opening Saskatchewan -2.5 did see early pressure to -2, it seems there is more pressure to send it to -3.
I am watching the flow of money today in all the markets and have yet to decide on this game. I likely will not play Ottawa, but Saskatchewan is no guarantee either. As I have done pretty well at closing lines this year, let’s watch the first game and then make some decisions for game two.
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After seeing the pressures and looking at the odds, I just pulled the trigger with Edmonton Eskimos +230 vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
Good Luck.
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GL this weekendComment -
For the most part, the numbers would agree with you. I have 30-20 Ottawa, Guy has them winning by nearly 9 points. Some have them winning by less points. These numbers are the furthest from the spread than any other games this week. We can learn something for tomorrow from this game, but that doesn't mean this game isn't worth a shot, that's for sure.
We have some time, I don't see that Team Total going up anytime sooand that 2.5 is going to be a 3 anytime now. Almost everywhere we are seeing plus, or less, prices on the +2.5. This sure would indicate the books are taking a position as a whole. This game could be the take of the week.
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2nd half opened as a pick now's the time to get what amounts to +8 for Edmonton for the game. We will see pressure on Edmonton for sure.Comment -
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Collaros injury changes the whole landscape of the Eastern Conference. Let's see if Ottawa can take control tonight.Comment -
Good Luck Jay, I hope you got some of that Edmonton, a couple of spreads and the moneyline payed off.
I like that Saskatchewan play, like I said I wouldn't pick Ottawa. Let's see what unfolds in the next hour. Right now I'm sitting out of this game. Some metrics just have me reluctant....and even eyeing Ottawa. The way I see it, if it comes down to it in this game, Saskatchewan will have no problem settling for a win instead of a cover.
Let's see what the next hour brings.
We're having another good week Jay!
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Before game time let's ask ourselves this...If Ottawa wins, even though they are underdogs, is it really an upset?
When you examine home and road records you might see why Ottawa could be an underdog, but truthfully, in an essentially round robin league with so few teams and often all the parity of professional football, figuring home field into working predictions isn't that beneficial...except in some extreme cases.
Still watching the markets....and thinking out loud.
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Any thoughts on the over?Good Luck Jay, I hope you got some of that Edmonton, a couple of spreads and the moneyline payed off.
I like that Saskatchewan play, like I said I wouldn't pick Ottawa. Let's see what unfolds in the next hour. Right now I'm sitting out of this game. Some metrics just have me reluctant....and even eyeing Ottawa. The way I see it, if it comes down to it in this game, Saskatchewan will have no problem settling for a win instead of a cover.
Let's see what the next hour brings.
We're having another good week Jay!
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Thanks KVB
Helped keep me treading water with those two plays...had them ML and +6 along with a few really good baseball plays....my CFB has been horrendous.Comment -
The reason I like over is because Saskatchewan has 3 rookies, and 1 second year starter in the secondary today. So I think Ottawa can do some explosive plays. Plus Kevin Glenn is back at QB for the Riders. So should be a quicker pace.Comment -
In my opinion, in terms of the flow of money, we can learn from watching the second game today in order to help make a decision tomorrow.
Of course, this is almost always true with games before any swing game. Now that said, sometimes we look at an early advantage and take stab, knowing it may come back.
There are a number of winning plays I’ve watched go by this year while passing. Bringing in some other metrics that have developed themselves today across the markets and noting that tonight’s Total does want to take out groups, including some seeking the Over tonight, I have gone ahead and picked up the OVER 50.5 (-108) for Ottawa Redblacks vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders.
May having the patience to wait for time and information prevail.
Good Luck.
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Thats what I did. Did $40 on over, and $10 on Ottawa win.
Im not a big better, but expecting a win here!Comment
