CFL

[johnny99]

Damn it I missed it. Great call KVB

[KVB]

...There seems to be a lot of pressure from a lot of streak breaking bettors to get Saskatchewan. Some of the same type of pressure on that Over also. The question...will the market pay both?

This is the type of weekend where it just might.

Good work fellas. Off to a good start here in the second half.

Curiously, is this also a holiday weekend in Canada?

[HeeluvaGuy]

Nice job today. Sorry I wasn't paying attention. Gonna try to get to tomorrow's games but looks like there are some land mines.

[Jayvegas420]

What a fukkin miracle!

[BamaCBass]

Any new opinions or insight?

[KVB]

I'm still liking this first game to be a close one, possibly even OT. With +7.5 it might be a good buy. I wouldn't be surprised if it drops to 7.

Both these games should be good ones today.

I haven't put it in bold, I'll write more about the predicted scores in a few minutes but let me say my prediction shows a Hamilton blowout. I'm not sure this is a good day to bet it, last time Montreal beat them, and I predicted a blowout. I'm not so sure Hamilton is going to get the rebound many expect.

I have to step away, but I'll be back soon.

[BamaCBass]

After reading a little more, I have to say my lean is w noddse in favor of Toronto, for what it's worth.

Sounds like Labor Day games are sorta a big deal in the CFL. Does anyone have stats on that?

[KVB]

For the first game today between Toronto and Hamilton I have Hamilton scoring 40 or more points to Toronto’s 23 or 24 points. This line opened early with Hamilton -7.5, ticked to 7, where it opened in many places and has since gone back to 7.5. There hasn’t been much movement here.

There was an early Total line of 52.5 but it opened most places at 54.5 and still sits there. Again, we are not seeing much movement here.

The cat is getting out of the bag about the second half of the season seeing some opposites of the first half. A few weeks ago Hamilton beat Toronto and some bettors may look for this to switch. But Hamilton is also coming off of an upset loss and looks to also rebound, a la Edmonton last week and BC this week. So what do we do here?

For the most part, this game is a pass. We’ve already seen two rematches offer revenge results this week and this game is the first of two today. Because it is the first game, I have metrics indicating a close game. I have metrics indicating misleading game. The problem is that this game could go to OT and Hamilton could still win by 8. In other words, my metrics could hold true and we could still lost this bet.

I’m going to pass on this first game but look to halftime and live lines for indications for the next game. I would agree, with a lean towards Toronto, mostly to keep this game close.

[KVB]

I thought this game started at 1:00 Pacific Time. Looks like it starts in 5 minutes. Sorry for the late analysis.

[KVB]

A quick note on a play I just picked up. I’ll write more later but my while my prediction varies a bit from many and we have a ton of information to take in between now and Monday, I have picked up Edmonton Eskimos +5 (-106) over Calgary Stampeders. I have also picked up Edmonton Eskimos +180 over Calgary Stampeders.

I believe this line, which opened at 6 very early and opened in most places at 5.5 will continue to press downward. I want to get this line of 5 before more information comes in to make a more aggressive decision, if any. Because this is the swing game on Monday this is a situation where I may find myself selling back, or buying Calgary, if conditions warrant the play. For now I’ll take these numbers and see how the weekend plays out...

The line has dropped a bit but I'm still holding. I would like a little more information before making a decision on this game. I will admit, it seems Edmonton may be a popular bet, and those swing games paid the bettors at the end of week 8 and with a Total at the end of week 10. If this second half is opposite, it may not be Edmonton tonight.

[BamaCBass]

Probably a good pass. Passing always seems like a far too infrequently used tool for many. Let's see what we can learn as the day moves forward.

[KVB]

Some late, subtle price movement indicates Hamilton to cover...I'm glad I'm passing. This game, more than many others, is designed to be difficult. One sign is the lack of line movement this week.

[Jayvegas420]

Still in live with the under.
Small proline bet.

[KVB]

Still in live with the under.
Small proline bet.

Good luck Jay.

I have Hamilton scoring 40+ points. This next highest team prediction I've had this season was Hamilton last week with 36 or 37 points, a game they lost to Montreal.

They only scored 23 points that game so Hamilton may get some points today, but Toronto could have trouble with that Hamilton defense. This is a tough total to get.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I have a pretty strong lean on the under for the 2nd game. Any thoughts there?

[KVB]

Reading my above posts I seem to talk of Hamilton getting this game but also that it could be misleading. The halftime bet is a pick and I have reason to get Toronto. I’m passing again.

From my perspective, a blowout here steers money towards Edmonton. I have other metrics indicating Edmonton. While I mentioned looking for reasons to buy Calgary, I’m starting to see reasons to pick up Edmonton.

I’ll write about that next. For this halftime, I’m going to pass. Not only has that line opened a pick, there seems to be no bias or movement either way. From a market analyst perspective, it’s a gamble.

[KVB]

Some indications of money coming in on Toronto for the halftime bet, but not much.

[JC2008]

Live in Calgary. Roll with the Stamps today!

[BamaCBass]

Reading my above posts I seem to talk of Hamilton getting this game but also that it could be misleading. The halftime bet is a pick and I have reason to get Toronto. I’m passing again.

From my perspective, a blowout here steers money towards Edmonton. I have other metrics indicating Edmonton. While I mentioned looking for reasons to buy Calgary, I’m starting to see reasons to pick up Edmonton.

I’ll write about that next. For this halftime, I’m going to pass. Not only has that line opened a pick, there seems to be no bias or movement either way. From a market analyst perspective, it’s a gamble.

Not really contributing much here but I'll post my leans to see where I stand and have some reference point to look back upon:
Lean Argos 2nd half and Eskimos thus far

[KVB]

A quick note on a play I just picked up. I’ll write more later but my while my prediction varies a bit from many and we have a ton of information to take in between now and Monday, I have picked up Edmonton Eskimos +5 (-106) over Calgary Stampeders. I have also picked up Edmonton Eskimos +180 over Calgary Stampeders.

I believe this line, which opened at 6 very early and opened in most places at 5.5 will continue to press downward. I want to get this line of 5 before more information comes in to make a more aggressive decision, if any. Because this is the swing game on Monday this is a situation where I may find myself selling back, or buying Calgary, if conditions warrant the play. For now I’ll take these numbers and see how the weekend plays out…

For the swing game I have Calgary winning with 30 or 31 points to Edmonton’s mere 10 points. Calgary has a pretty solid defense and while Edmonton scored 38 points last week, the offense is still below average.

The line opened with Calgary -6 points early and was picked up at 5.5 or 5 in most places. Despite my prediction, I saw pressure on Edmonton. I picked up Edmonton +5 expecting a further drop. The line sits at 4.5.

The Total had an early report of 55 but immediately opened at 49.5. We saw a dip to 49 then a rise to 50 then right back to 49.5. While I predict a 40 or 41 point game, I am going to pass on the Total.

For now, I am sitting with my position in Edmonton as we see this first game play out. This is a holiday weekend and I believe, as some metrics show, if the favorite covers in the first game, we have a good shot at the underdog in game two.

[KVB]

I have a pretty strong lean on the under for the 2nd game. Any thoughts there?

You've done well with your numbers this week. I also have a 40 or 41 point game.

Numbers for Week 11:

Montreal -15.9 42.9
Saskatchewan -7.3 53.7
Hamilton -28.4 66.9
Calgary -2.7 41.7

Your totals were right on the first two games. Remember it's so often a give and take. I have metrics that see this next game as a potential back and forth so I feel the under is too risky, despite our numbers.

[KVB]

Live in Calgary. Roll with the Stamps today!

At halftime the guys were talking about how Edmonton could pull it off in Calgary. This seemed odd to me because I thought the general perception was for Edmonton here.

It can be disturbing when the TV lines up with the people.

Also, despite only losing 2 games, Calgary has only covered 2 spreads. This second half of the season is sure to see some kind of reversal in that trend.

I'm locked into Edmonton, with the intent of possibly buying Calgary, but that line isn't budging.

Good Luck

[KVB]

Not really contributing much here but I'll post my leans to see where I stand and have some reference point to look back upon:
Lean Argos 2nd half and Eskimos thus far

Nothing wrong with posting thoughts. I find myself going back and reading what I've written all the time. I even re-post and quote myself.

I've found that writing these thoughts on the market out has helped incredibly. This thread is doing well and a number of my wins can be credited to this process of writing things out.

I always talk about keeping track and making notes. This way we are creating information that is unique to us, not even the top syndicates have it.

And Toronto just scored a TD.

[HeeluvaGuy]

You've done well with your numbers this week. I also have a 40 or 41 point game.



Your totals were right on the first two games. Remember it's so often a give and take. I have metrics that see this next game as a potential back and forth so I feel the under is too risky, despite our numbers.

I hear you on the give and take, and the possibility of a back and forth game, but I think there's enough value on the under for me to roll with it. So I'm going with:

EDM/CGY u49.5 (-108)

GL to everyone on your plays!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Nothing wrong with posting thoughts. I find myself going back and reading what I've written all the time. I even re-post and quote myself.

I've found that writing these thoughts on the market out has helped incredibly. This thread is doing well and a number of my wins can be credited to this process of writing things out.

I always talk about keeping track and making notes. This way we are creating information that is unique to us, not even the top syndicates have it.

And Toronto just scored a TD.

Just wanted to emphasize the bold. I see a lot of guys on these and other boards who just post plays without any rationale. I find those types of posts to be of limited use. I firmly believe that articulating WHY you like a play can lead you to a good play (or more likely from a bad one). I know I don't always do it, but I find I'm better when I fully write a game up, including analyzing why the other side of the play might win. The problem we all face is that it takes time and effort to do those things.

[BamaCBass]

Edmonton has dropped 11 in a row to Calgary, including last year's West finals where they were somewhat embarrassed 43-18, and Stamps moved on to Cup. Apparently this is first game of year for these two. I'd say they have a little extra reason to play with extreme conviction. Also seems Stamps take home field very seriously. I might take a look at Edmonton first half.

[KVB]

Good Luck Guy

[KVB]

Here comes some money on Edmonton. Prices are shifting, let's see if lines do.

[KVB]

Edmonton has dropped 11 in a row to Calgary, including last year's West finals where they were somewhat embarrassed 43-18, and Stamps moved on to Cup. Apparently this is first game of year for these two. I'd say they have a little extra reason to play with extreme conviction. Also seems Stamps take home field very seriously. I might take a look at Edmonton first half.

Good post. I've been thinking Edmonton first half also. I mentioned I might see more first half bets this second half of the season. We've seen some of those first half bets get burned, it may be time to get one back.

Last week Hamilton gave up a home streak.

This week Saskatchewan just protected a streak, perhaps Calgary's 11 in a row fall. That could be asking a lot.

Again, a good post.

[KVB]

Hamilton taunting another late Over.

[Jayvegas420]

Books seem to be struggling with CFL totals?

[KVB]

Here comes some money on Edmonton. Prices are shifting, let's see if lines do.

Lines dropping to 4.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Where did the total finish for this HAM game?

[KVB]

Money driving to the Under but this first game didn't really go Over. No extra point.

[KVB]

Where did the total finish for this HAM game?

Looks like an Under or Push, depends on what you had.