CFL

[Hngkng]

Hey all, just noticed this thread here, and looks like some good insight here! So I would like to add onto the discussion.

I have a few comments about the Edmonton @ Toronto game.

Edmonton is starting a new QB, James Franklin; he has looked good when coming into games this year, not sure how he will look in his first start.

Toronto destroyed Edmonton in the season opener, so I am sure Edmonton will be ready for revenge this time around.

Toronto is coming off a very short week after playing on Sunday.

After last week's loss to Hamilton, I am sure that the Edmonton D will have something big to prove.

I am leaning towards Edmonton to win, but not sure about the 5.0 point spread this moment.

[KVB]

I pretty much agree HongKong, the lines got away from us. Thanks for chiming in. Joined in January and this is the first post?




Welcome.

[KVB]

I’ve written plenty on tonight’s game and the spread has now grown to -6 even -6.5 in some places. Pinny will probably claim a close at 6, even though they are holding a -5.5 with prices, they can be misleading that way.

I will say again, I do believe it is Edmonton tonight but now the lines are just too far for me. So far this season getting the best lines has not made much of a difference. That’s going to change; and with a 3 point move from 3 to 6 on a game in which I was inclined to take Edmonton, even before the line was out, I have to pass here.

Even the moneyline, which I think is a winner, simply costs too much for this type of betting. Unfortunately, in the second half of the season, it will be more and more difficult to assess the flow of money by waiting for results, as lines may jump on us…we have to remain sharp.

There may be some opportunity at half time for a bet, but I somehow doubt, in this game, that the market and books will make it that easy.

[jjgold]

Look at Hamilton losing last night no excuse this is a tough league to bet

[KVB]

Look at Hamilton losing last night no excuse this is a tough league to bet

Indeed JJ, a tough league.

No excuse? Did you see my two plays for yesterday? If you read along I think you'll get the picture.

One quarter of a season at a time JJ, one quarter of a season at a time.

[Jayvegas420]

Kinda busy here guys, without scrolling back, can someone tell me what we're on in Edmonton?

[KVB]

The total for the Toronto vs. Edmonton line opened at 48.5, moved to 48 where some houses opened, then it ticked back to 48.5 where it sits in most cases.

I must say I expected a little more downward movement here and can only think that the books are holding. Clearly, the initial downward pressure was met by something a bit sharp, and books may not want to tip the hand or move the line.

That is a little speculative; as it is possible the line itself is sharp and steady at 48.5, as I can see pressures both ways. But truthfully, I think I see a position being taken here. For those with higher models, like 47 or 48, they are being forced to guess or pass.

Here’s a concern. I’ve mentioned my models record against Totals a few times. It’s basically been 50-50 and I was expecting to see some variance, one way or another. Just after that’s posted, we find my predictions 1-6 over the last seven games against the Totals. (While I had 52-54 points predicted last night, the line closed at 51.5 and the game had 49 points scored, making my prediction a fail on the Over.)

So that’s 4 straight times my total prediction, which has been 50-50, week by week, through week 8, has lost. It stands to reason that it would be due to succeed, which would make the bet an Under.

But with other reasons to take the Under, some using the same streak breaking mentality, it seems the market should have moved. My read, or take, on this is that the early dip to 48 may have been manipulation to get the better number and quickly books got hit. I think, in terms of my predicted scores against the Totals, we are dealing with a bit of a market shakeout.

I think Friday’s game is still a part of that shakeout and have picked up the OVER 48.5 (-105) for Toronto Argonauts versus Edmonton Eskimos.

We’re taking on the books here and it will be interesting to see how the books handle the pressures tomorrow…

Just about everyone is sitting at 49 now, some perhaps afraid to come off 48.5. The Under feels to easy and those expecting the shakeout I mentioned above to end would likely counter line movement. In my opinion, in a unique way, they are selling the Under.

As such, I have added to the Over position and picked up OVER 49 (-103) for Toronto Argonauts versus Edmonton Eskimos.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Kinda busy here guys, without scrolling back, can someone tell me what we're on in Edmonton?

Line got away from us, passing on Edmonton to cover and not spending for the moneyline. I do believe Edmonton wins this game, check at halftime, we'll see.

For now, taking the Over, 49 still good in my opinion.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Yup. Over 49 for me too. Considered 1h under and Edm team total over, but settled on game over for a few reasons.

GL to all!

[KVB]

Pressure coming, seeing 49.5 now. This is the last week of the first half of the season. One of the best Total bets of the year came with a late movement that was away from the result. I can see a few reasons to counter this movement. I see very few to chase it.

Jay... 49 is better than 49.5 so hopefully you get it. But, to me, the Over play looks better and better.

It's that movement on Edmonton that worries me. They might play a close game.

[Hngkng]

I pretty much agree HongKong, the lines got away from us. Thanks for chiming in. Joined in January and this is the first post?




Welcome.

Haha yup, basically haven't checked the forums at all. If I knew you guys talked about CFL I would have been here since the start of the season!

Are you guys CFL fans in USA or Canada?

[KVB]

Yup. Over 49 for me too. Considered 1h under and Edm team total over, but settled on game over for a few reasons.

GL to all!

Nice. I was considering the scenarios where the total starts out a little slow, making that 1st half under a possible bet.

With this latest movement though, if it is the Over, it might be an onslaught of scoring to seal it early.

[KVB]

Haha yup, basically haven't checked the forums at all. If I knew you guys talked about CFL I would have been here since the start of the season!

Are you guys CFL fans in USA or Canada?

We started around the third week. I'm from the US.

It's been a good thread. I've focused on a type of market analysis and others have chimed in with their numbers and on the ground, beat type information.

It's been very helpful and a pretty good ride so far. Things are going to get tough soon enough.

[BamaCBass]

GL tonight fellas! Looking forward to it!

[Jayvegas420]

It's 48.5 here in the book.

[Hngkng]

I did Edmonton Under 27.5 as my bet.

[Hngkng]

We started around the third week. I'm from the US.

It's been a good thread. I've focused on a type of market analysis and others have chimed in with their numbers and on the ground, beat type information.

It's been very helpful and a pretty good ride so far. Things are going to get tough soon enough.

Oh that is cool. I plan to be active here to join in on the discussions.

[KVB]

It's 48.5 here in the book.

Excellent, I say fire away, but don't go crazy. It's up to 49.5 around the world, Bookmaker dealing 50. It's going to move in Vegas soon, or maybe not. I did mention the books are up to something. We'll probably see 49 in Vegas, at least.

[Jayvegas420]

[IMG][/IMG]

[Jayvegas420]

Thats a 4 unit bet.
If its 49.5 & pushing 50 in some books ....I really feel like I should go bigger. No?

[Jayvegas420]

[IMG][/IMG]


Alright, just a tiny bit more

Whaya great value.

[KVB]

For Week 10 my raw numbers say:

HAM -21.9 50.1
EDM -10.2 51.8...

In all four of these issues, the opening has moved towards your numbers.

Let's not forget this. On this game, I think your numbers are more precise than most.

Given Hamilton's loss, you deserve these bets.

[KVB]

Thats a 4 unit bet.
If its 49.5 & pushing 50 in some books ....I really feel like I should go bigger. No?

That's your call. Know that I like the play, bought it twice in the thread.

[KVB]

[IMG][/IMG]


Alright, just a tiny bit more

Whaya great value.

[jjgold]

need 21 at half or bet in trouble meaning to go over

[Jayvegas420]

Surprise surprise, they aren't showing the CFL game in the book
Can I get an update, please?

[HeeluvaGuy]

EDM 10, TOR 0 with 7 to go in the 1st half. TOR about to attempt a FG.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Kick shanked. 10-1

[Jayvegas420]

This over is gonna be a nail biter

[KVB]

They sure are playing like an Under game. When it was 7-0, Edmonton had a TD called back on a real questionable penalty.

Gonna be tough to get. A game like this would indicate the end of the shakeout for sure. This could get real ugly on the under side.

When each team crosses the middle, then punts, misses FG's and trade one point scores. not generally good. This half being played for field position.

11-1 Edmonton under 2 minutes to half.

[KVB]

Edm 11 Tor 8

42 seconds to go in the half. Tor to kick off.

[KVB]

11-8 Edm winning at half

Not surprised Toronto staying close here it's a good thing they got off the one. We'll need a few big plays in the second half.

[KVB]

...There may be some opportunity at half time for a bet, but I somehow doubt, in this game, that the market and books will make it that easy...

Edm -3 for second half. We have the same bet as before kickoff.

I would assume the -3 will see some pressure.

Total is 25, a good sign, and it's moving to 26.

Oh boy...

[HeeluvaGuy]

TOR o11 2h is a no brainer for me.

GL!

[KVB]

Good Luck Guy, good bet. I was watching that move to 11.5.

I will say this, someone wants that Over. Some books are positioned to cash on the Under, but must be having that line pressed. Books may even be afraid to move the line.

Maybe there's thoughts of OT here.