CFL

[johnny99]

Here to my fellow Canadians bettors....make some cash!!! KVB is da man LOL

[HeeluvaGuy]

Oh my goodness

[KVB]

So no deception, I was looking for the favorite and Over here and the underdog and Under in the next game. We had the clear favorite the whole way in the first game and a clear Over.

...I expect money to be driven tomorrow, one way or another...

It looks it like it was driven hard. I’m not the only one looking for Ottawa with a favorite here, and looking at this thread, I’m not the only one looking for Ottawa.

I would expect pressure on Ottawa shortly.

If the first game ends like this, that would make the sharper models 3-0 ATS and 3-0 against the moneylines. Conveniently for the markets, the models have Calgary to win but Ottawa to cover the spread. It’s pretty tough to get all ATS and Moneyline bets in a week.

So if one or more sharp model predictions are going to fail we should see Ottawa winning or Calgary covering.
That split, indicated by earlier money line movement, will hopefully lend itself to Ottawa covering the spread and possibly losing the game down the stretch. The moneyline could be close.

I am holding with my parlay and passing on both the moneyline and total bets for the second game.

Good Luck

[KVB]

We are seeing pressure on both the underdog and the Under total bet across the board.

[HeeluvaGuy]

so i didn't see what happened, but i can only assume it was something ridiculous that lost me the BC under play...

[KVB]

Late, back up scraps for BC. I posted my results a few posts back and noticed BC has fukked me too.

[HeeluvaGuy]

So down 39 with 9:30 to go in the 4th BC kicked a FG?!? Oh, ok. That's terrific.

[KVB]

...The game scores predicted should continue to do well, especially very well against money lines, but price does matter long term there. Many times we get charged too much vig and you have to know when to enter...

This was from before last week began. Since then the score predictions have been 6-2 against the moneyline…with 6 in a row in rotation order. They were 5-3 against the spread.

It will do good to keep tracking the models' more recent behavior against the markets as lines are getting sharper.

[KVB]

…I'm thinking a late Over in the first game and an under in the second. If taking the points and the over is so obvious, then perhaps that late Over comes with Hamilton covering the minus. Then we see an under in the next game...and possibly Ottawa covers.

I expect money to be driven tomorrow, one way or another.

I want to quickly address some of these specific, on field characters that I sometimes apply to the games. If you’ve followed along in this thread you know that I sometimes connect market behavior to on-field antics. Read what you will into it, but this is a part of the alternate lens I mentioned early on in the thread.

The main point I want to make is that while this analysis seems oddly specific, it is worth remembering. As usual, I encourage readers to go back, re-read, and re-experience the CFL season so far.

It would have been nice to sweep the day, but notice I had very little risk today. I had some very specific analysis to give, but I risked very little. The situation will come again, hopefully we will identify it, and when we do, we’ll fire away.

[KVB]

Seems like some money trickling on Ottawa that could make me a little nervous here. It could be slight manipulation, an attempt to pull some bettors towards Calgary, or we could all have this game wrong.

One thing for sure, streak breakers may be doubling up on Calgary. It looks like all rematches between teams have resulted in the same side ATS and some have varied on the total. If the first game was a favorite, so was the rematch…same for underdogs.

When Ottawa faced Calgary in week 5, it was an upset and an Over.

That first game will be a key and the line sharp. If I am right on the two pick, we could very well see an overtime game where Hamilton wins by 8.

If I’m wrong, I think we see a Calgary blowout…

This was a fairly sharp post. One reason I had limited risk and didn’t continue to play Ottawa was that there were signs that Ottawa was being sold. The favorite dropped in this game as soon as the first game was telling.

Even posters in this thread started the day liking Ottawa, and I showed how money was steered that way. Even the population of streak breakers looking for Calgary was getting split. This is why, despite Hamilton covering, I didn’t buy more Ottawa.

Indeed, Calgary gets a well-deserved game at home. We shouldn’t be surprised Ottawa loses in the fashion they did…fumbling on punts, not converting, and the like.

This might seem like after the fact reporting but it’s important to understand what happened today and why. There will be future ramifications.

The CFL is very good at deceptively steering money and it won’t be long before the market environment offers similar opportunities that will come back to us. I believe we know what to look for and this fact alone should bring us success.

Overall I believe it was a good week 8 in the CFL for this thread.

Good job guys so far this season. I know it's not my thread but thanks to those of you who are chiming in and contributing.

Shit's going to get tough. I suppose it will be harder and harder to get a bet in for each game.

The ability to pass has always been our biggest edge as bettors and it will have to be used wisely going forward. There is little room for greedy play going forward.

[true degenerate]

As of posting in this forum:

CFL (11-3)

Edmonton PK (Win)

Toronto-6 (WIN)

Hamilton-8 (Win)

Calgary-7 (Win)

[KVB]

Nice true degen. Many of us doing well in this thread.

[Mike Huntertz]

Nice stuff.
I will be dropping in next week.
Keep up the god work.

[HeeluvaGuy]

3-5 for the week, 10-8 for the thread. Here's how the raw numbers have fared:

		Sides		Totals
		W	L	W	L
Week 5		3	1	1	3
Week 6		4	0	1	3
Week 7		2	2	2	2
Week 8		1	3	3	1
Totals		10	6	7	9

[cutter341975]

I am so tired of losing EVERY dam pick I make, I feel like a fool, Ive been lying to all of you, and I honestly need help guys, really, please please if anyone has the heart to just send me a few bucks, please message me, I will stop, I will start going to "meetings", I will post my progress here, just please guys, all my friends here, Please help me, I'm about to lose everything, everything, and I'm desperate, ok.
I AM DESPERATE!!

Oh my, dude just stop........just stop man.

[KVB]

Oh my, dude just stop........just stop man.

[Jayvegas420]

Cutter, I like your style.
I see what you are doing
Clever.

[true degenerate]

My CFL picks posted in this thread;

(11-3)

Montreal +3

Edmonton +3

Calgary -6.5

Toronto -8.5

[HeeluvaGuy]

Nice work true d.

Here are my raw numbers for this week:

BC -5.9 51.2
EDM -2.4 42.5
SSK -3.7 54.8
TOR -10.9 55.3

Keep in mind, these aren't necessarily plays, just numbers from my model. GL!

[cankid]

appreciated you doing that to compare

[KVB]

For the first game this week between Montreal and British Columbia it looks a bit like last week’s first game involving Montreal. Many models are split but this time I have Montreal winning with 20 points to BC’s 17 points.

This line basically opened early with BC -3.5. One house dealt a -4 line but it didn’t last very long. This line traded towards my above prediction to 3 points where it essentially opened worldwide. Some houses read it differently. Two of them opened at -2.5, but quickly found the 3 point line. This could be something to remember, this 2.5 number, where have we seen that early line before?

If there is any pressure on this line, I feel it would be toward Montreal but think it will very tough to pull this game off of 3. Even though we’ve only seen early, lower limit bets, it is my opinion that this line is sufficiently sharp, in this context, and I think it’s a pass. After all, I already won this bet last week.

I am tempted to pick up the BC moneyline and will wait to see price adjustments as we get closer. If you notice the posted record, the BC moneyline has caused some problems for me. With this type of analysis, that tends to even out, but that’s not reason enough to pull the trigger.

The total in this game opened at 48 points. This makes sense as many models using averages can get this score up to 53 points while some sharper models score it below 40. Again I think we have a fairly sharp line here and, for the purposes of this thread, I am going to pass.

I’ve posted about going with these models before, even if I pass for this thread; but it’s worth noting that this is the first game of the week and these lines have really split the money.

As I look at the rest of the week, it makes sense that BC holds the moneyline and wins the first game on the closing line, which may be 3 points. I think BC -2.5 is a little more attractive, but would likely pick up the moneyline if we see that movement.

[KVB]

For Friday’s game between Hamilton and Edmonton I have a similar line to the first game this week, another incentive to pass on the first game. I have Edmonton with 20 points to Hamilton’s 17 or 19. This line basically opened at -2.5 around the world and has also traded a half down to 2 points. This seems pretty consistent with the model.

While it makes sense that there would be pressure on Edmonton at home I have taken an early position in Hamilton Tiger Cats -2 (-110) over Edmonton Eskimos. I’m not going to address my assessment of the line movement yet because I think the market is awaiting not only higher limits, but more information regarding the flow of money.

I will say this…I may not be getting the best possible line for this game. I can see quite a bit of pressure on Edmonton that should but may not materialize into a line movement. Certain, unnamed metrics and a bit of experience tells me the books may need to hold this line where it is and that they may take a position.

I may make a money flow parlay, like before, for the benefit of the thread and maybe that will help us see a clearer picture of this week’s games.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Looks like I'm passing on tonight's game. GL to the rest of you though!

[coolwater]

KVB thank you for all the write ups.....you know your S**T

[CanuckG]

Lions roll

[icecapper]

Under looks good here. Can't see Montreal showing up.

[KVB]

...If there is any pressure on this line, I feel it would be toward Montreal but think it will very tough to pull this game off of 3. Even though we’ve only seen early, lower limit bets, it is my opinion that this line is sufficiently sharp, in this context, and I think it’s a pass...

Houses like Pinny, 5Dimes and Heritage all showing a small bias towards Montreal. Let's see if can get a price change and perhaps pick up the BC moneyline.

[KVB]

I have seen sufficient money movement to go ahead and pick up British Colombia Lions -135 and -3 (+108) over Montreal Allouettes.

This is not sprint; it’s more of a marathon. These numbers fit into my overall acceptable risk as the price on +3 is well in range at +108. The house has, by moving as I predicted, essentially sold them to me. This is a little rebound from last week’s first game and should I win here, there’s no doubt the market will be expecting this bet back, especially after last week's first game. Should Montreal get me here, I guess I'm the one giving back.

I will say that it is the +108 that puts me on the -3. I fully recognize that BC could win this game by 3 or less and have noted that in a post above. For the odds and edges in this thread, however, the +108 price is making the cut here.

While my predicted score is well below the offered line, the total tonight has far greater risk and too little reward. I will pass.

These first games of the week are always tough ones.

Good Luck

[true degenerate]

Good luck KVB

[KVB]

Shit, I thought this game started at 7 Eastern Time. There will likely continue to be pressure on Montreal here, I hope that doesn't come back to bite me with a large line shift.

I see Heritage has traded down to a 2 point line.

I mentioned it would be a good idea to keep checking the performance of the models, including recent performance. Let’s look at the Totals...

...For the 12 games, the early season models being used were 10-2 ATS and 5-7 against the moneylines (which means little without the prices). The models were 5-5 against the Totals, with 2 games right on the spread.

This was from the end of the first quarter, week 5. Since then the models have gone 2-2 against the Totals each week for an overall record of 11-11.

After applying market analysis and passing on plays I have an actual posted record against the totals of 7-4. I’ve bet half of them. Note this does not include the multiple positions on some totals, simply the first market entry point per issue.

This week, the models predict scores that come in at the Under on every game; although Saturday’s game is within one point of the posted line.

This is something to keep in mind as we would expect to see some variance, one way or another in this record against totals. Simply put, it is to be expected from the markets and it will be interesting to watch for the steering of total money in the near future.

As we’ve seen, it can be wise to think ahead.

Speaking of thinking ahead, I've constructed a money flow parlay for all for games this week and it almost included Saskatchewan to beat Calgary outright. I went conservative and took the points.

[Ghenghis Kahn]

taking dogs blinded has ended. but i see another trend that's been covering for the last 6 games.

if the trend continues, it's the lions tonight...

[Ghenghis Kahn]

blindly that is.

[KVB]

Good luck KVB

Maybe a close game tonight, a BC win and Montreal cover makes us both right, save my greedy little +108 on the -3...lol.

[KVB]

taking dogs blinded has ended. but i see another trend that's been covering for the last 6 games.

if the trend continues, it's the lions tonight...

lol...it's a trendy time in the CFL and I hope you're right.

Good Luck Kahn.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I may tail one of the BC games for fun. I also think this one goes over. That's one of KVB's "mental" plays for me. GL to all whatever you choose.