CFL

[Viravolta]

I was a bit pissed for the BC game, but never the less, thanks to including the complete injury list into the model, managed to compensate from the MON @ OTW game.

Edmonton Eskimos vs. B.C. Lions Spread - EDM -1
Edmonton Eskimos vs. B.C. Lions - over 47,5
Edmonton Eskimos vs. B.C. Lions - over 47
Montreal Alouettes vs. Ottawa Redblacks Spread - OTW +0,0
Montreal Alouettes vs. Ottawa Redblacks Spread - OTW +1,5
Montreal Alouettes vs. Ottawa Redblacks Spread - OTW +2
Montreal Alouettes vs. Ottawa Redblacks - over 46.5
Montreal Alouettes vs. Ottawa Redblacks Spread - OTW +2

I was confused before, where to find a complete injury list, so I found this web site... which I didn't know before.

http://www.footballbetting.ca/cfl/injuries

For the SSK @ TOR game, it appears that not only they have an issue with the QBs, but also 3 key receivers are out + few minor defence. Nevertheless, including this info into the new stats, my model got crazy and spit me into the face with such a negative offence rating for SSK, that I have never seen before. I am taking multiple positions on the TOR -9 plus one previous position on the under 48, adding a small position on under 49 today.

GL to all!

[noddse]

3 key receivers?

taj smith played poor so far this season. jamel richardson was released. haidara, i don't know this dude.

though anthony allen injured is a tough task for them cuz they have to rely on the running game as their 3rd string qb didn't impresse me in his 1.1/4 games.

their injuries on defense are way heavier. should be another blow out against the riders.

coach chamblin said in one interview this week that they want to give younger players chances now. for example, richardson was one of the better players in my view for them. but he was released to give a young canadian a chance to play.

they should be an auto fade the rest of the way.

[Viravolta]

Is this list at this web site up to date? Could you tell me if you know other reliable injury web site?

[noddse]

yes the web site is up to date, but they have some players not listed according to my information. i follow beat writers and local papers for this news, tho.

Toronto will be minus centre Jeff Keeping (shoulder), linebacker Cory Greenwood (concussion) and slotback/running back Anthony Coombs (concussion) while slotback Chad Owens (lower body) isn't expected to play.

Saskatchewan: Veteran receiver Jamel Richardson, running back Anthony Allen, linebacker Telvion Clark and defensive back Tyree Hollins won't suit up for the Riders.

keeping is a very good starting center.
greenwood is 3rd leading tackler on the argos with 20.
coombs is a threat but his stats are a bit down this year.
owens is one of the best slotbacks in the league and 2nd on team in receiving yards.

allen is one of the best running backs in the league. he and messam are a great 1-2 punch in the riders backfield. their running game is the teams strength and it takes a blow w/o allen.

[KVB]

Nice info noddse, another good post. I'll write more in a bit on about why I'm passing tonight. Basically the line movement plays into a certain hand and info on the ground another. I could lean Under, but see more value in a pass. More on that later.

Noddse...are you in Canada? Are you covering beat writers on the internet, or actual local papers. Or even local papers on the internet.

It's a another thread altogether and you know how I like to write, but sometimes combining work and information can be very beneficial.

You seem in touch on the ground, or even the internet, or twitter, etc.

Can you trust those writers? If you're willing, give me some insight into your level of research or how in touch you are.

I hope you can get what I'm asking. I don't use twitter at all for research and I don't think I'd ever post there. I only post at SBR.

I do all my own handicapping work and research.

[Viravolta]

yes the web site is up to date, but they have some players not listed according to my information. i follow beat writers and local papers for this news, tho.

Toronto will be minus centre Jeff Keeping (shoulder), linebacker Cory Greenwood (concussion) and slotback/running back Anthony Coombs (concussion) while slotback Chad Owens (lower body) isn't expected to play.

Saskatchewan: Veteran receiver Jamel Richardson, running back Anthony Allen, linebacker Telvion Clark and defensive back Tyree Hollins won't suit up for the Riders.

keeping is a very good starting center.
greenwood is 3rd leading tackler on the argos with 20.
coombs is a threat but his stats are a bit down this year.
owens is one of the best slotbacks in the league and 2nd on team in receiving yards.

allen is one of the best running backs in the league. he and messam are a great 1-2 punch in the riders backfield. their running game is the teams strength and it takes a blow w/o allen.

Amazing info, indeed! Thank you very very much for providing it. Well... for us in Europe, beat writers and papers don't work. :/

I will stay on the TOR -9. With the lack of quality QB and tough defence will be difficult. In the receiving, the situation is not better. If aa recent game stats are analysed, anthony allen contributes to the totals in every directions, which makes him a key out-er. Haidara, also contributes to the over team performance, that's why i indicated "key players".

I hope we get it right this one! GL to all!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Sticking with my original lean:

TOR tt o29

GL folks!

[KVB]

Nice stuff, tail over 46.5 +102

...That’s right my friend, win or lose, you are now playing with the big boys; the boys who can’t get enough down...

...Do you know where your sharp money is? (he said in an ominous voice)...

Nice hit!

[KVB]

I’ve said this about other games and one thing about this type of analysis is that it can be very rinse and repeat: I think there is more value in passing on tonight’s game than there is in betting it.

While we might gain more information, unfortunately, we may end up facing line movement that is not in our favor for the final game.

My analysis at this point tells me that money for this week as splashed and we may not find another wager.

That’s a bit of a poker reference. There’s a pot in the middle of the table and someone throws there chips right in the middle, splashing the pile.

This week we reached out and grabbed some of those splashed chips. We took on both the books and the bettors and did it at the right time.

I couldn’t post it at the time but I took as much as the halftime Over that they would give me. I think I made it pretty clear I liked the Over…lol

As Billy says, “this time we didn’t just get some feathers, this time we got the whole chicken.”

[noddse]

I follow all teams on their respective online local newspapers and blogs as well as on twitter. I live in Germany, but I am a full time football sportscapper. All I do is reading, watching games and follow the live markets. I follow Canadian Football, Arena Football, NFC East and european football, but only do live betting at the College Level. I do most of the betting in game with all the information I have. I've watched tons of games over the years, so it's a bit easier for me to get good bets during games.

[noddse]

weston dressler a late scratch for the riders. wow. another huge blow. they won't get anywhere near the 20s i guess.

[KVB]

One of the things I like to do is a quick sanity check with other predictors. I'm fond of Massey just because his are pretty real time and he has all of the leagues. Take a look here:

http://www.masseyratings.com/pred.php?s=cfl

...

Massey failed on the first two bets, but let's track him. If he goes on a streak of Totals or Sides failing we can gain evidence to confirm thoughts about the flow of money.

This could help us find or confirm a bet for Sunday.

[KVB]

...Notice that Thursday and Friday’s games both opened as a pick em. See if you can identify what money is being split, or at least appears to be being split...

Money has come in on Edmonton and Montreal, as expected and both lines, which opened as a pick em, have moved the same amount…indicating that, indeed, the books are splitting money (as predicted) inevitably sending one population in motion...

Both games closed at -2.5.

Did anyone happen to see the final scores in those two games? And How they ended?

Once again, market antics play themselves out on the field.



Analysis you can’t find anywhere else.

[KVB]

...Speaking of Hamilton, they’ve come through for certain types of bettors as the swing game two weeks in a row…that could be significant when we talk about the ebb and flow of money...

Hamilton has capped off the last two weeks with a wins and covers. What I consider a pretty sharp, competitive line at this point is Hamilton’s 30-31 points to Winnipeg’s 17-20.

Accordingly, we have seen slight pressure on Hamilton and we have seen the Total line drop. There has also been other info possibly pointing to a lower score:

Guys notice that Under at Tim Hortons Field is 7-0 in regular season games with a maximum of 5 offensive tds scored in those. Hamilton also just placed starting RB CJ Gable and leading receiver Andy Fantuz on the 6-Game Injury List.

From a market analysis standpoint, I feel the Total is a pass. When looking at the sides I see a potential situation. While Hamilton -7 may be a good play, we might find more value in the Winnipeg moneyline.

This condition will probably evaporate if Saskatchewan were to win tonight so I am watching closely.

[KVB]

For those who like to gamble, I think Saskatchewan +225 to win the second half is a pretty good deal. I am not going to bold it here, for this thread, but it's not a bad play.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Sticking with my original lean:

TOR tt o29

GL folks!

Alright then

[KVB]

...I have the same total as you, 57 in the Saskatchewan vs. Toronto game but I have the score a little closer. I have basically one less score for Toronto and one more score for Saskatchewan than Massey...

The sharp models that failed on the moneyline, pointspread, and Total bets for the first two games this predicted a score of 30-27 in favor of Toronto for the third game.

That final score was 30-26.

Toronto came through for some bettors tonight, just ask HeeluvaGuy. Nice call bro.

Perhaps it was redemption for last week…

...But as for Toronto, and their fans, even though they couldn't convert on 3rd downs, but being a conversion away from bringing that total to 54, all I can think of is this...

...Seemed like everyone knew Hamilton was going to beat Toronto last week, one reason the spread seemed so sharp. Total picture aside, the market analysts got paid when Toronto folded and Hamilton stepped up...

Or perhaps not quite: It’s good to note that Toronto won and hit 30 points, but didn’t cover the spread. It is my belief that having a score so close to the model in this market context likely means we will see repercussions.

Like I said before, sometimes you have to consider the audience when trying to uncover the meaning of results and use them for future predictions.

[KVB]

…While Hamilton -7 may be a good play, we might find more value in the Winnipeg moneyline.

This condition will probably evaporate if Saskatchewan were to win tonight so I am watching closely…

Saskatchewan didn’t win but they covered the spread and some houses offering +300 for the Winnipeg upset now offering +290. Many of them moved the line together. They are either copying lines or got hit at the same time. Either way, for the most part +300 or better is off the board.

Many houses don’t offer a money line yet.

[KVB]

…What I consider a pretty sharp, competitive line at this point is Hamilton’s 30-31 points to Winnipeg’s 17-20.

Accordingly, we have seen slight pressure on Hamilton and we have seen the Total line drop. There has also been other info possibly pointing to a lower score:

Guys notice that Under at Tim Hortons Field is 7-0 in regular season games with a maximum of 5 offensive tds scored in those. Hamilton also just placed starting RB CJ Gable and leading receiver Andy Fantuz on the 6-Game Injury List.

From a market analysis standpoint, I feel the Total is a pass…

Well now wait a minute. Remember this?

...Given the defensive situations with these teams we could be looking at another Over play, but the story in Saskatchewan could be bleak, not just increasing that Toronto favorite, but really affecting the total score. I mentioned a bit about this game above and that it opened so low for a reason.

...I see upward pressure Saskatchewan vs. Toronto despite the facts that these teams are different than when they met in Week 2 and defenses have had time to adjust.

Expect these totals to once again do something interesting this week, a la last week’s puzzle...

The last time these two teams played they scored a combined 82 points, the highest scoring game so far this year.

Now, since they’ve played once, defenses can usually make some adjustments. Also, Saskatchewan isn’t playing with the same QB…obvious signs pointing to fewer points.

But the total is only 48 points. If Toronto is able to gain one more score because of a lack of offensive conversions by Saskatchewan and get to a 34 or 36 point game, then Saskatchewan only needs two to three scores to bring it over 48.

Sounds reasonable, right? Toronto failed us last week, a real let down, this week they could bounce back at home, right?

As usual, I think we should follow the money...

Well Toronto made the team Total and the game went Over the spread. So we followed the model, understood the line shifts, made a solid case for the Over, and it paid. There may be some discussion about players being out last minute and that leading to less scoring, but truthfully, this wasn’t about the offense; it was about bad defenses, like I said above.

Now let’s look at the Total for Winnipeg vs. Hamilton. The models say Under, we can make the case for the Under and players are out. We can understand the line shift.

So if that process works again we have an Under play.

Let’s look at bettors that have been beefed up a bit. Streak breaking bettors, especially dealing with the ATS and totals, which were forced to buy underdogs near term but have been given the Overs this week, have done very well.

If we look for these guys to lose, we would take the Under. Further, some of these guys will already take the Under as they will be trying to break their own short term streak of winning and Overs.

On the other hand there are those streak riders who have failed all week. They went with those models on the first two games and they failed. They tried to go against the models in game three with another Under and failed. Do you think some of these bettors are going to jump ship and ride the streak of Overs since they are streak riders?

Not likely, instead, they may be increasing their bets to get that Under they just know is coming.

The guys that have pegged the CFL as underdogs and Unders have seen their dogs, but might be looking for their Under. The guys that want the Overs to catch up may already be satisfied this week.

The guys who are looking for that favorite just may get it Sunday.

With the big win on Friday being an Over bet I can acknowledge the risk here. The books did their duty this week and Sunday’s game may simply place money for future implications.

This game could most certainly go Under but with what I see as certain populations of money being steered towards the Under and others getting split, and after reviewing some unnamed metrics, I have countered that Under pressure and picked up Over 52.5 (-105) for Winnipeg Blue Bomber vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

Admittedly, this line could drop. This play is barely above a pass and is close one. I have included this play as bold because I am confident a loss here will lead to a clear future decision.

Good Luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

Barring some unforeseen changes, I'm passing on today's game. This week I went 2-1 in posted plays and 3-1 in leans (I didn't play the MTL u24 that I posted as a lean). I'll update the results from my raw numbers, but it looks like they'll be pretty mixed overall (which is why they're just one tool I use).

GL with whatever you guys come up with, and enjoy the rest of your weekend!

[Jayvegas420]

I had Saskatchewan ML so I might not have been completely unbiased but, it appeared to me that a lot of questionable calls in the final 8:40, by both the Rider coaching staff & the officials, influenced the total & side results.

[jjgold]

How are you guys doing so far with the CFL

[KVB]

This thread has produced some moneymaking results.

[CanuckG]

I had Saskatchewan ML so I might not have been completely unbiased but, it appeared to me that a lot of questionable calls in the final 8:40, by both the Rider coaching staff & the officials, influenced the total & side results.

Figured Riders would keep it close too. Was a sketchy game.

[CanuckG]

I like the Bombers to cover as well.

[KVB]

All that pressure on the Under showing itself. Some houses dealing a 51.5 line.

Remember, the big splash on Friday involved a drop from 46.5 only to see an Over. In that sense, I am going to the same well today.

This is inherently risky.

Good Luck

[KVB]

I hope it's not a 52 point game. It's about time I get burned for buying so many plays knowing the line was going to move against me.

As the markets get more efficient I will have to curb some of that behavior. For this thread, I have been a bit loose with those positions, it's bound to burn me sooner or later.

Despite this, I'm not buying on the moves. The play isn't that strong.

Good Luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

How are you guys doing so far with the CFL

My posted plays are 7-3. I'll update the record from my raw numbers when I have the time over the next few days.

[Snine]

Hey KVB I have a off topic question for you. Been following this thread and you seem to be pretty knowledgeable in what you do.

Are you flat betting a set amount when you place your bets? Or betting in proportion to your perceived edge?

[HeeluvaGuy]

So I took a quick look and here's what my raw numbers would have produced without any further research:

		W	L	W	L
Week 5		3	1	1	3
Week 6		4		1	3
Week 7		2	2	2	2
Totals		9	3	4	8

ETA: Sorry, missed two columns. The first columns are sides. The second are totals.

[cankid]

Good numbers bro

[noddse]

well i'm 45-11 this season (european season, canada, arena, nfl preseason), with a 23-10 record in the cfl (pre and live).

chuckgiant.blogabet.com

[true degenerate]

My picks this last week regressed a little as I went (2-2). I'll get it back on track this coming week.

My updated CFL Picks (7-3)

Edmonton-1 (Loss)

Montreal-1.5 (Loss)

SSK+10 (Win)

Hamilton-7 (Win)

[HeeluvaGuy]

Early raw #s for Week 8:

Montreal -5.6 35.4
Winnipeg +1.5 54.6
Hamilton -26 54.5
Calgary +1 50.1

NOTE: I always present my lines based off of the home team. Sorry if that's confusing for anyone.

I haven't even looked at the lines yet, so I'll go peek and see how far off I am now...

[getlucky2win]

anyone play teasers? i dnt have a push chart for cfl. but have been teasing some favs last couple yrs