Sharp line last night.
Next game is a cinch.
Next game is a cinch.
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Agreed about the sharp line, I was going to mention that earlier. Lines like that tend to generate a pass from me...but notice the model nailed it.
Tomorrow harder than it looks. Even though we've had two deceptive games, both a come from behind to win, expect the first game tomorrow to offer more of the same. The spread and total answers may not be revealed until very late in the game, giving us little time to react.
Those are my initial thoughts here.
We may have a two pick parlay situation tomorrow. I'll write more later.
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So its not an obvious "take the points & over"?Comment -
Maybe it is, I'm running scenarios to see what looks good. I'm thinking a late Over in the first game and an under in the second. If taking the points and the over is so obvious, then perhaps that late Over comes with Hamilton covering the minus. Then we see an under in the next game...and possibly Ottawa covers.
I expect money to be driven tomorrow, one way or another.Comment -
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For the first game I have Hamilton scoring 30-31 points to British Colombia’s 17-19. There are market pressures that made sense to open the line at 52 and, of course, it has fallen since, as low as 50 in many places. Hamilton opened -7.5 and, consistent with the model, has grown to -9. Clearly the model that I believe to be more sophisticated is navigating this week well and we shouldn’t be surprised at the moves.
For the second game, I have Calgary with 24 points to Ottawa’s 19 or 20 points. The line opened with Calgary -7.5 and the total 48. There is a tremendous amount of pressure on Calgary to cover a spread and I am not surprised the line has ticked up to -8.5. The total has had some downward pressure, towards my score.
So what do we do here?
One mistake bettors often make is to focus too much on the closing line, and not enough on the openers. If you’ve read this thread, you’ll know that a lot can be learned from the opening line. I expect these games to split tomorrow in regards to the openers. I expect there to be one favorite and one underdog.
The trick is figuring out which one is which and how to bet it. I have used certain metrics to determine the flow of money and figured the best combination is for Hamilton to cover their spread and Calgary, with all the pressure on them, to fail.
I can see the model covering both the moneyline and the spread in the first game only to succeed on the spread and possibly even lose the moneyline in the second game.
Sure, Calgary can finally cover a spread this week, but I don’t think it’s going to happen on a swing game.
So how do we bet it? To begin, I have picked up a two pick parlay with Hamilton Tiger-Cats -7.5 (-145) over British Colombia and Ottawa Redblacks +8.5 (-110) over Calgary Stampeders. The parlay pays +222.57 and is worth the odds given the situation.
Note I have decreased my risk on two games to only one unit, but stand to gain an increased reward. This benefits me if I go 2-0 or 0-2 and harms me if I go 1-1.
Expect BC to challenge in the first game, driving money to Calgary only to find Ottawa coming close to, if not outright winning the second game.
If I am correct here, we should see a higher scoring game. This falls in line with market indicators that have led me to pick up Over 50 (-105) for British Columbia Lions vs. Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
All we do now is watch the market and then the first game closely.
Good Luck
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KVB - I'm a little spooked at how similar our thoughts are today.
Here are my super fades for today:
BC tt u20.5 (-110)
HAM -8.5 (-108)
OTT +8.5 (-105)
OTT ml +400 (.5u)
GL folks, with whatever you play on this Saturday!
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Love Ottawa +8.5Comment -
Seems like some money trickling on Ottawa that could make me a little nervous here. It could be slight manipulation, an attempt to pull some bettors towards Calgary, or we could all have this game wrong.
One thing for sure, streak breakers may be doubling up on Calgary. It looks like all rematches between teams have resulted in the same side ATS and some have varied on the total. If the first game was a favorite, so was the rematch…same for underdogs.
When Ottawa faced Calgary in week 5, it was an upset and an Over.
That first game will be a key and the line sharp. If I am right on the two pick, we could very well see an overtime game where Hamilton wins by 8.
If I’m wrong, I think we see a Calgary blowout.
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It appears that both favourites are taking all the public action.
Redbkacks have moved to 9.Comment -
BC team total has moved up to 21.5 (what brilliant poster said it would go DOWN?
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As much as I'd love to have the 21, I'm not adding to the play. If it ends on 21 I'll just punch myself in the dick.Comment -
I can only think this is a good sign. If both lines close at 9 we're gonna have one dirty day of football.
Best probably not to buy into that move. There is a danger of an Over in this game...some real back and forth scoring, momentum changes, BC could play them close.
By not covering the closing line, Hamilton could effectively drive smart asses like me towards Calgary. Like I said, we could have one dirty day of football.
Also note, the score I predicted for this first game today is virtually the same as the Winnipeg vs Hamilton matchup last Sunday night. That line closed at -7.5 and resulted in the favorite covering and an Under. I don't believe both the side and total will repeat.
Look for BC to come out early and strong.
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Great info, as usual.Comment -
Ottawa goes to +9 but the moneyline drops to +365.
Great money line price Guy. That big fat +400 made me question so I held off, it's probably worth it. Could come down to one of the last plays.
Good LuckComment -
It can be tough to manage and let's hope I didn't out think myself...remember that Princess Bride clip? It only gets worse from here. Real patience will be needed.
In their last four games, BC has been involved in some sort of upset.
We've seen Hamilton come through on three consecutive swing games, real easy to try to get them to fail here. Also, the models have been spot on so far this week (with the exception of the split in the first game) and last week they were a perfect 50-50. Trying to get the model to fail is another reason to counter Hamilton.
And Calgary is obvious. They have left a trail of sorrow for their bettors. My models indicates a closer game and could represent a split form sharper money and the public. Tonight is a swing game, perhaps it could be their night.
As the season progresses it can get very difficult to put it all together. Recent performance is key, living in the here and now, not the past. The big houses have deep pockets and can really stretch it out, again patience is a virtue.
Seems like we've already seen some extremes stretched out this first half of the season, but it can be relentless. The bookies tend to thrive on the gambler's chase.
Notice how I limited my risk significantly so far and haven't "loaded up" on anything, yet.
Sometimes it's like a CSI episode where we put the evidence together, study it, then BAM, crime solved.
Sometimes I'm just wrong.
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TMI!I will follow along.....I have always been a follower..always will be...me being a leader and actually knowing much on my own is out of the question...so watever yall say ..I'll do...and by the way...if there are ANY cute Asian guys out there..hit me up...I go both ways....
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Sometimes the basics in gambling get forgotten or never really learned as we move forward into games. I've shared some other threads in previous posts and here are two threads I feel shed some light on the business of gambling and some basic concepts that are often misunderstood, often costing bettors money...
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I hope you're wrong about this bit.
The six lines I have for this game that I used to come up with the BC tt u20.5 play have BC scoring: 17.9, 5.6, 16.3, 19.1, 6.5, and 18. From those (after throwing in some eye of newt), I arrived at a total for BC of just under 15. (The straight average is 13.9, but I don't just average those lines.) So you can see why 21 is an important number to me. Regardless, I have looked at a number of other items and am having a hard time seeing why this total is in the 50s.
For example (and this is an example only, not the Gospel), Hamilton's YPPT against at home is a whopping 27.1 (tops in the league). Granted, they have only played 2 home games, but BC's YPPT for on the road (after 3 games), is 18.2 (bottom half of the league).
I thought the total for this game would come down today, but was wrong. I still like the play at 20.5, but I am always prepared to be wrong...Comment -
How about 21-21 or 22-22 in OT when Hamilton goes on to win by 8?
You're right about that total line Guy, holding steady. I'd say the lines are getting sharper, can you feel it?
Someone's got to surprise us today, could be BC.
Then again, I'll take a Hamilton blowout too, leaving BC in the dust.
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Too much too soon can lead to a deceptive game. Notice the announcers just reminded us that Hamilton scored 21 early three different ways and Winnipeg never recovered.
Patience. See you at halftime.
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Nice infoComment -
Good stuff man I read all the material here I think I'm up small when everyone's advice so farComment -
LOL. I don't know if it's too much too soon, but it sure is a helluva lot early...Comment -
Meh. Looks like the team total play is going over.Comment -
One things for sure, I'm not picking up Hamilton for the second half. I am very tempted to get a little BC -.5 for +110, but I think we just watch.
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