CFL

[Can U Tank It]

KVB is undefeated would be my guess, maybe it's a blood bath but I enjoy reading his thoughts personally.

definately somewhere in between and yes he is certainly giving it his all.

[Jayvegas420]

This is one of the Top 20 threads on the internet

[KVB]

...Splitting the money with a 2.5 point spread with these first two games is one angle the books may have going here. In the last two weeks we have seen the spread used to split money each week: the first two games in week 7 (used pick ‘em lines that each shifted to -2.5) and the last two games in week 8 (each with a -7.5 opening line). In both instances the same side covered. They were both underdogs in week 7 and both favorites in week 8.

This week they have used the -2.5 line for the first two games and note that the last two games this week had early openers at -7.5. See what the markets did there?

This is a game by game decision but it is my opinion that we may be looking at Hamilton winning and Saskatchewan performing very well at home.

In regards to the models, the first two games have very similar predictions and the same can be said for the last two games. The models may be sharp, as they are emulating the markets very well...

So the first game resulted in the Underdog and the Under while game two was the Favorite and the Over. It seems the above post had some sharpness to it. The money and results were split. Common sense tells us, in this give and take world, that we’ve profited from the above knowledge already. Perhaps I should take to the sidelines for the rest of this week.

But let’s look a little further. First let’s look at my money flow parlay…

...Speaking of thinking ahead, I've constructed a money flow parlay for all for games this week and it almost included Saskatchewan to beat Calgary outright. I went conservative and took the points.

I believe this parlay could finish out with winning answers. More importantly, certain unnamed metrics show me that, while it has been a season with many early upsets, the markets may be hiding an upset. So in the least, I see an underdog in the next two games.

In the last two games last week these 7.5 lines both resulted in convincing, blowout favorites covering. It stands to reason one of these next two games is an underdog. If you ask me, in this league of only 9 teams, there is only upset that the market would “go out of its way” to hide, and that would be Saskatchewan’s first win.

We know this is a game of patience and give and take. My predicted score has Calgary scoring 30 points to Saskatchewan’s 20 points. There are models that bring the score closer, and even show more points.

Those models may be the result of less sophisticated methods and those users may likely be sold on Calgary’s performance last week. Further, those sharper guys who have outwitted the books recently may be trying to take advantage of an apparently softer -6 point line, as well as the reduced moneyline that comes with it.

That reduced moneyline is a factor as there will be less to pay out for the books on the upset. If anyone is buying anything, it’s the favorite to win. As such, I am picking up Saskatchewan Roughriders +240 versus Calgary Stampeders.

I recognize it has been a battle of wits with the bookie of late and last week's two favorites get some witty bettors jumping on the underdog. These bettors, and myself, need patience. This could be like the Oakland Raiders, every time there’s a good reason to bet them, the game starts and you know what you did.

I expect Saskatchewan to come out strong and if this play does fail, it will be a heartbreaker late. That said, some metrics do indicate a Calgary cover of the 6 points, perhaps landing on the 7. Because of this, at this time I am passing on the side.

Again, I believe the market is hiding an upset and even if we don’t get it this week, I believe we’ll sniff it out by midseason.

Good Luck

[KVB]

...I presume we’ll close at 48 and we haven’t seen a Total line push the open or close of the spread all season long…he said ominously...

The line for a Saturday’s game in Saskatchewan opened at 51.5 and has moved to 51 points. I have a 30-20 game predicted. There is plenty of reason to believe this line may be pretty sharp and perhaps we’ll see a 50 or 51 point game.

I do believe the market is due for a push on the closing total and that’s why I bring it up a second time. This could be a good game for that.

Clearly I am passing on this total and can’t see any line movement changing that decision.

[KVB]

interesting thread. any idea what KVB's record for the year in CFL is?...

This gives a chance for another up to date review.

15-9				997.37	439.01
7-2-1		1st Quarter Results		424.05	437.52
22-11-1				1421.42	876.53

For the second quarter (since week 6) I am 15-9 on individual issues. Overall I am 22-11-1 and 8 of those 22 wins and 4 of those 11 losses were on Total bets.

Also, of that 22-11 record, 5 wins and 2 losses are moneyline bets.

That leaves a 9-5 overall record against the sides.

If you bet the just the first buy point listed in bold for each game you would be positive 4.39 units since week 6 and positive 8.76 units overall. The 5-2 moneyline record shows profit and accounts for 1.58 of those 8.76 units.

A bettor betting each bold play posted would be up 9.97 units this quarter and 14.21 units overall.

A more detailed record has been posted on page 13 of this thread…

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3116443-cfl-p13.html#post24384059

Notice British Colombia has been a thorn in my side so far this season.

If you are new to the thread and haven't already, I recommend reading the entire thread, there are principles I tend to build on in the posts.

[BamaCBass]

Nice job yesterday and thanks for posting.

I expect Saskatchewan to come out strong and if this play does fail, it will be a heartbreaker late. That said, some metrics do indicate a Calgary cover of the 6 points, perhaps landing on the 7. Because of this, at this time I am passing on the side.

Having said this, do you ever play halves? Your logic suggests there might be value in this first half, no?

[Ra77er]

KVB I made perhaps a rash play this morning. I should have passed on this game but -5.5 feels like the bottom even with the pressure here. I will either couch dive and show myself the red card or count myself lucky here. Hope all is well.

[icecapper]

I like Saskatchewan to cover here. Stamps have been awful on the road and the Roughriders have had two weeks to prepare for this game.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Even though I *think* Saskatchewan gets the win tonight, I'm passing on this one and probably on Sunday's game. Model is scuffling right now, and I've got some conflicting info on today's game that's keeping me away.

GL to the rest of you though!

[Can U Tank It]

This gives a chance for another up to date review.

15-9				997.37	439.01
7-2-1		1st Quarter Results		424.05	437.52
22-11-1				1421.42	876.53

For the second quarter (since week 6) I am 15-9 on individual issues. Overall I am 22-11-1 and 8 of those 22 wins and 4 of those 11 losses were on Total bets.

Also, of that 22-11 record, 5 wins and 2 losses are moneyline bets.

That leaves a 9-5 overall record against the sides.

If you bet the just the first buy point listed in bold for each game you would be positive 4.39 units since week 6 and positive 8.76 units overall. The 5-2 moneyline record shows profit and accounts for 1.58 of those 8.76 units.

A bettor betting each bold play posted would be up 9.97 units this quarter and 14.21 units overall.

A more detailed record has been posted on page 13 of this thread…

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3116443-cfl-p13.html#post24384059

Notice British Colombia has been a thorn in my side so far this season.

If you are new to the thread and haven't already, I recommend reading the entire thread, there are principles I tend to build on in the posts.

awesome write up as usual. thanks so much for taking the time and posting for us. i have been working on a tennis angle for some time now, and hope to have something meaningful and profitable for the forum sometime in the future. hard sport to get a grip on, but i am very encouraged by a couple of the angles i am pursuing- tennis has the different "seasons", clay/grass/hardcourt which makes handicapping a very difficult thing indeed. but on the good side- there is tennis action virtually every day of the year. anyhow, thanks again.

[KVB]

Nice job yesterday and thanks for posting…

…Having said this, do you ever play halves? Your logic suggests there might be value in this first half, no?

You’re right about the logic and the halftime but there tend some hiccups. Sure I may predict one team to start out strong and anticipate a comeback but I hate when I call the gameplay correct but lose the bet. The first half bet offers this chance.

While each game is a game of halves, each half has a half. Saskatchewan could easily go up two TD’s in the first quarter only to give it all up before halftime. I would be right, but the bet won’t settle that way...I hate that. With quarter by quarter lines, this kind of gameplay happens…not just in the CFL, but NFL too with those last 2 minutes of the half almost always threatening a score.

Now, if the comeback doesn’t happen by halftime, we may have a second half bet. We’ve got a little more information, possibly to make a more informed decision. I did suggest a heartbreaker at the end, so perhaps waiting until halftime could be a good idea.

On a technical side, the halftime lines are a market by themselves. If I were tracking and trying to read how money was shifting between first and second half bettors, then we may able to determine value within the context of that marketplace. While I know the lines, I haven’t paid as much attention to first half bets and results; in fact I’ve paid more attention to second half bets and team totals so far this year. This could change as we advance this year. The vigorish makes those markets a bit softer, in my opinion.

Dipping into those other sort of submarkets just based on reasoning of how a game will flow can be dangerous, especially with the constant -110 and higher prices…too much vig for the risk.

And then there’s that word “value.” We could use reasoning like Team A plays great at home, they are rested, etc, so there must be value as underdogs. This can very subjective.

But this is a game of numbers. Numbers is the game.

So I maintain the only way to know if there is value is to create a line or price that is more realistic than the one offered. The difference between the market and that line is where there may be value found. The subjective analysis can be very misleading and the oddsmakers know just where to set that line and bookmakers know where to move it.

It’s set up for bettors to fail.

Let’s wait a half today and see where we stand at a halftime.

[KVB]

KVB I made perhaps a rash play this morning. I should have passed on this game but -5.5 feels like the bottom even with the pressure here. I will either couch dive and show myself the red card or count myself lucky here. Hope all is well.

I think we've ALL been there Ra77er!

Hey, there's a chance Saskatchewan places close only to get trounced in the end. I mentioned a possible Calgary cover so I'll say this, I wouldn't be buying Saskatchewan +5.5 right now, that's for sure.

[KVB]

Well my +240 is sitting below +200 almost everywhere in the world. For a Saskatchewan win, their first win, the books will be paying less that 2-1 by the close.

I can even sell back...lol. Another reason to get the Calgary moneyline.

Does that make sense to anyone? This condition is so ridiculous that it alone will help us identify that hidden upset, if this isn’t it.

Will Saskatchewan win a game before the first half of the season is over? Let's face it, whoever is at quarterback is a professional quarterback.

That player has a job to do and made to this level.

Of course, has anyone ever placed a bet on the Oakland Raiders?

[KVB]

...I expect Saskatchewan to come out strong and if this play does fail, it will be a heartbreaker late. That said, some metrics do indicate a Calgary cover of the 6 points, perhaps landing on the 7. Because of this, at this time I am passing on the side...

It was possible to get Saskatchewan +7 or better earlier this week, like when I made the money flow parlay, and now one could buy Calgary -5.5 or even -5 for the middle.

Remember, the second trade of the middle is the winning trade.

He said ominously…

Or maybe just another reason to buy Calgary.

Good Luck.

[BamaCBass]

Let’s wait a half today and see where we stand at a halftime.

Ok, but if Sas does come out strong as you originally suspected and have a lead going into the half, then you have no position, right?

[Ra77er]

This would be isolated right kvb?

Taking a shot at a middle feels kind of foolish, if you like Sassy at 7+ and now you get Calgary you really need to hit that 6 or 7 or you are losing juice maybe break even.

Is this a sound strategy or advisable for you larger rolled players?

[KVB]

Ok, but if Sas does come out strong as you originally suspected and have a lead going into the half, then you have no position, right?

This just might be perfect for the heart breaker loss. If Saskatchewan leads at half, I would consider a Calgary bet, or no bet, depending on the number and the score.

Sure, I would have let a winning first half bet go by, but well, see above...lol.

[KVB]

This would be isolated right kvb?

Taking a shot at a middle feels kind of foolish, if you like Sassy at 7+ and now you get Calgary you really need to hit that 6 or 7 or you are losing juice maybe break even.

Is this a sound strategy or advisable for you larger rolled players?

If I had the larger dog, I might very well take the favorite here. After all, the middle opportunity on a side I was going to pass on would be nice.

Passing through the 6 and 7 do have advantages, and like I said, I have metrics showing the 6 or 7 point win. I said that before it moved to 5.5.

The larger the bets the better of course.

The +240 moneyline is it's own bet with it's own price. Having the opportunity to sell back, either for a spread middle, or guaranteed profit like I could with the money line is a situation that should be noted and remembered.

Markets are so tight anymore that bettors are lucky enough if they can get some arbitrage around the world.

Who needs arbitrage when you can just be far enough ahead of the line movement to begin with...lol.

These markets are tight and situations like this movement hard to come by.

Ra77er, I saw that other thread, you're not like everyone else in the world, you served and have experiences many of us do not.

Humble as you may be, you deserve a thank you.

[KVB]

This is one of the Top 20 threads on the internet

It does seem like we’ve done something a little special here so far this year. A quick trip down memory lane…

...Remember light, it is particle vs. wave and I may view these markets through an unfamiliar lens...

...I’ve always said: if you can understand why the line opened where it did and why it moved where it moved, it will go a long way towards successful betting.

We’re going to get this CFL this year, one quarter of a season at a time...

For those not familiar with some aspects of sharp bookmaking, this was a learn while you earn night...

Thread is one of the better ones I've seen on SBR in a long time. Appreciate your guys' willingness to stick your necks out.

...Remember fellas, I’m bringing a perspective of market analysis involving both the numbers and the participants. I hope some of this insight is helpful as you add your own layers of more subjective, matchup type analysis...

...I suggest reading my posts again, from the beginning. There is almost enough information and examples so far in this thread to equal a college course. There are details and leans that should be reviewed. We are dealing, at some level, with a rinse and repeat sort of knowledge and the CFL has been a fine example this year.

...Another thing, this thread is becoming like a course in that early concepts will be expanded upon as the market gets more sophisticated. So, if you are following along, you need to learn the stuff from earlier.

Finally, if you are lucky enough to have followed along, word for word, in much of this thread, you may feel like you are getting something unusual and special. Well, you are. This is some of the most unique analysis you will ever see in the sports markets. Understanding and mastering some of the concepts laid down in this thread will cut years off your learning curve, I assure you...

...So with that in mind, we’ll do what we can to follow that money around, pick off what the books do, accept the traps if we fall into them, ride some sharp waves, sniff out manipulation and, most importantly, learn from any mistakes...

KVB you are sharp and should not be speaking like this on a public forum. I appreciate it though.

...We can never let our guard down, it’s tough enough with the guard up and remember, they hold no quarter…

...It’s tough to actually get to have some cake and then eat it too, but we will at one point, we will. In the words Walters, “sometimes you get some feathers, sometimes you get the whole chicken.”

We’ll stick to our guns and get some roses…

...That’s right my friend, win or lose, you are now playing with the big boys; the boys who can’t get enough down...

LOL. I don't know if it's too much too soon, but it sure is a helluva lot early...

[KVB]

awesome write up as usual. thanks so much for taking the time and posting for us. i have been working on a tennis angle for some time now, and hope to have something meaningful and profitable for the forum sometime in the future. hard sport to get a grip on, but i am very encouraged by a couple of the angles i am pursuing- tennis has the different "seasons", clay/grass/hardcourt which makes handicapping a very difficult thing indeed. but on the good side- there is tennis action virtually every day of the year. anyhow, thanks again.

Good luck tank.

Yesterday I took on the public, the sharps, and the books and Hamilton reached 49 points by themselves. I only needed to win by 2 points and 49 points total. They could have covered with a last second field goal, we still get paid the same.

My point is that when you've got the play, and it ends with a big win, don't let that go to your head. You get paid the same whether it's a blowout or or a close cover. By the same token, if you get crushed, shake it off.

That said, don't forget the effect matches and games like that have on the bettors and the market.

Minimize emotions and you'll make better, more rational decisions.

[KVB]

Well Saskatchewan actually had the lead and was covering the first half spread and then a major meltdown goes from a possible 1st half moneyline win to not even covering, all in some 30 seconds.

That's the kinda of action that makes those first half bets risky without further analysis. The National Football League is particularly sticky with these bets.

It's pick 'em spread at halftime having to lay for Calgary.

If you liked Saskatchewan +7, 6 or 5.5, you can now get them +9 with this halftime line.

If you're Ra77er, and own -5.5, you can now get the halftime underdog, for even money or +105 and have 6, 7, and 8 covered.

I have no bet this half but am glad to see Saskatchewan have that early lead and saw the movement we did, if this isn't the upset being hidden, we're going to find it.

How about the close line on the punt return? A player was ejected. Man it seems these guys are rather undisciplined.

[Ra77er]

Well this one hurts but you did keep bringing up the heartbreak kid angle.

[KVB]

Yeah Ra77er it was very close to a 6 point game…just a play or two away. I once, this season, predicted a 5 point game that was a 5 point game until the last play when one team threw the ball backwards 30 some odd yards for a safety.

I’ve mentioned that we should consider the audience they play for, and I think, based on what’s being posted, and what we see on the field, that I’ve got the pulse, or at least the sense of the market.

Heartbreakers are good in the business of market analysis. It can be helpful to see the game and markets try to push away certain bettors, it usually means there something “around the corner.”

The trick is to stay disciplined with the bets and money so that we are still in the game when we turn that corner.

[KVB]

For the final game this week between Ottawa and Toronto I have Toronto with 27 points to Ottawa’s 19 or 20. Many models, some simple, some decent give Toronto a few more points and have scores up to 50.5 or so.

My prediction has Toronto winning by 7 or 8 points. The line opened with 7.5. It has pushed through the 8 but not really that significantly, given the numbers. Bottom line, this line and my score are right in line. If it closes here, it will be difficult to assess the model against the spread as they are virtually equal. We had a case like this with the Totals a few weeks back.

The total opened at 49.5 and has moved to 50.5, towards some of the other models, away from mine. Notice that the Total on Saturday’s game closed at 50.5. It seems the books are not only splitting these games with 7.5 lines, but are going for another split with the totals.

Notice the first two games with 2.5 lines and 48.5 and 48 Totals. We saw those games go Underdog and Under then the Favorite and Over, respectively.
This post explains my earlier thoughts on this…

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-talk/3116443-cfl-p17.html#post24414309

Saturday we saw an Underdog with an Over, so will we see a Favorite with and Under on Sunday or is that cat out of the bag? Do we have a two pick parlay? It’s also the only combination that hasn’t come in this week of splits. From a market perspective of splitting the money, it almost seems like a “natural.”

It will be interesting to see if a late shift towards the Under comes in close to game time tomorrow and I wouldn’t be surprised if any more pressure, albeit small, on the side of -8.5 is on Toronto.

So it seems the market wants me to either gamble or pass on the side here as my model is right on. And remember this…

...Common sense tells us, in this give and take world, that we’ve profited from the above knowledge already. Perhaps I should take to the sidelines for the rest of this week...

In the last two games last week these 7.5 lines both resulted in convincing, blowout favorites covering. It stands to reason one of these next two games is an underdog...

We’ve already seen the underdog on Saturday, even if I didn’t bet it. Passing on the side or taking the favorite seems to be the play.

Remember this parlay I thought was going to win out after the first loss?…




If that is to win out, the play could be Toronto, except it’s now at -8.5, not -7.5 like the parlay. Those following the flow of money at this level may be leaning for the favorite.

One thing is for sure: any way we focus we tend to forget about the potential upset. In Friday’s game I suggested the books were taking a position and bettors buying the underdog and upset lost.

In Saturday’s game we saw a sharp bettor, myself, recognize line shifts that indicated we could see an upset. I suggested those shifts were rather ridiculous. The underdog may have gotten redemption, but the upset moneyline failed again.

It is my opinion that the books targeted astute upset moneyline bettors specifically on Saturday and, as you know, I posted about the activity and am comfortable with my loss there.

I’m comfortable because things happen in the give and take marketplace for a reason. There is a developing story in the upset world and it could go into another week.

But with these prices, I think it is worth it to try to wrap this story up on Sunday. As such I have picked up Ottawa Redblacks +380 over Toronto Argonauts. At this point, this is the best line in the world for this bet.

If they pull another maneuver with the money line and drop it a bit, I may strike again.

Good Luck

[Jayvegas420]

I like it.
Ottawa is not great but they started off the season hot & might show a little bit of that early season zest today!

GL

[Ra77er]

KVB I also saw another thread with pom poms, I missed the original and I was unable to keep a proper schedule to get the other in. I hope that turns out okay. Ottawa is going to bring the noise, I got an autographed hooters shirt there once, yes she was that hot. Normally I just browse and drink a few but oh la la this chick was incredible. GL tonight here.

[KVB]

...It will be interesting to see if a late shift towards the Under comes in close to game time tomorrow and I wouldn’t be surprised if any more pressure, albeit small, on the side of -8.5 is on Toronto...

We did see the under drop to 50 and that -8.5 has traded at -9. There is a little late pressure, or at least the appearance of, on Ottawa, but it looks like it will close at -8.5 and -9 in some places.

A shift from 9 to 8.5 isn't as significant as some may think, but it gives reason to drop the moneyline. The books playing games, trying to suck in those bettors that want to pass on the game, especially the side.

At this point, for this week's swing game, the CFL has split things up and the books are looking sharp.

[KVB]

KVB I also saw another thread with pom poms, I missed the original and I was unable to keep a proper schedule to get the other in. I hope that turns out okay. Ottawa is going to bring the noise, I got an autographed hooters shirt there once, yes she was that hot. Normally I just browse and drink a few but oh la la this chick was incredible. GL tonight here.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Hmmm... I was looking this game over and considering a play on the over, but I overlooked the most important stat ... the start time. GL with your plays fellas. I'm on the sidelines for this one (unless something comes up at the half).

[KVB]

That’s two games in a row the 1^st half underdog lost the spread in the last minute of the half.

Last night the underdog managed to stay close and cover the spread. It is my feel that bettors, especially after watching the first half, will likely pick up the favorite for the second half as well. Pinny’s line was showing a bias toward the +3.5 for the second half and I think it was a false indication.

I have picked up Ottawa Redblacks 2^nd Half +3.5 (-110) over Toronto Argonauts.

Good Luck

[BamaCBass]

That’s two games in a row the 1^st half underdog lost the spread in the last minute of the half.

Last night the underdog managed to stay close and cover the spread. It is my feel that bettors, especially after watching the first half, will likely pick up the favorite for the second half as well. Pinny’s line was showing a bias toward the +3.5 for the second half and I think it was a false indication.

I have picked up Ottawa Redblacks 2^nd Half +3.5 (-110) over Toronto Argonauts.

Good Luck

Sick that I missed that halftime play. Nice job.

[Ra77er]

Good call on the 2h and Ottawa had a chance to win. Might hit one of these on the ML at some point.

[KVB]

...I’ve mentioned that we should consider the audience they play for, and I think, based on what’s being posted, and what we see on the field, that I’ve got the pulse, or at least the sense of the market.

Heartbreakers are good in the business of market analysis. It can be helpful to see the game and markets try to push away certain bettors, it usually means there something “around the corner.”

The trick is to stay disciplined with the bets and money so that we are still in the game when we turn that corner...

Ottawa with a few chances down the stretch came very close. I still like what I see. When the time is right, we may get multiple shots at the upset.

Guess who the swing game is next week…Saskatchewan versus Ottawa.

Muhahahahaha

[KVB]

Sick that I missed that halftime play. Nice job.

It was a rather late call on my part, I needed to confirm Pinny's bias and re-check some metrics. When this was posted, the 2nd half had just begun.

Ottawa's offense couldn't score in the first half and I just didn't see a blow out like last week. Pinny's bias led me to the decision and that, of course, is a double edged sword.

Just when I warn of greed, I lose two moneyline upsets when the points would have been winners. That halftime bet gets one back and we live to fight another day.

[KVB]

I’ve mentioned that the markets and the books make an effort to split money not just within a market, but among them. Now we saw an event happen with the moneyline in Saskatchewan this weekend that I insisted was out of line, targeting, and at the very least something to remember.

One property of the markets I would like to briefly bring up is how it handles regional events. All I will say is that there are micro economies around well rooted sporting events and the markets can sometimes take this into account.

Back to Saskatchewan, it seems there is another event, the last one of the evening for the books and the last one of the weekend; a true swing event. The line movement in the CFL wasn’t the only thing unusual in Saskatchewan as they are hosting a UFC event.

Max Holloway fights Charles Oliveira in Saskatchewan tonight and many, including those at SBR like Max Holloway. There are striking similarities in both the context and the line to the CFL game and since they are both in Saskatchewan I propose the books are up to their usual business. It’s quite possible the books are reacting to late hedging as bettors in that market like to parlay favorites when they can.

It’s not bold for this thread, obviously, but a play on Charles Oliveira at +195 or better may be a decent play. Crazy, I know.

So you know, I have Holloway with the Pirates in a cross sport two pick parlay and the Pirates are looking pretty good early with a 3 run lead. I picked this up based on another metric before the line started shifting and may not have if the line had shifted before the MLB game began.

Let's see if we know an answer in time.

I may slam the other way for some risk free profit.




Edit: Looks like the line shifts corrected themselves and the Underdog not such a good bet. I held with the parlay.

There were 7 Underdogs and 5 favorites, including the Holloway fight in what looks like the UFC's first time in Saskatchewan.

I must credit poster BIGDAY with the Holloway play, I never blindly tail, but he pointed me towards the play for sure.