For the first game this week with Edmonton and Montreal, there are a number of models, one posted above, that suggest Montreal will win this game. These models have done extremely well early in the season and essentially went 50-50 last week. Again, I am torn between a review and whether to proceed with this week.
Also up until this week, a progressively sharper line that I have been making has been on the same side as the models mentioned above. This week, I have Edmonton scoring 24 or 25 points to a mere 3 or 7 for Montreal.
I believe some houses that will get hit with limit bets early on have been keeping this line at a pick ‘em, not divulging a favorite or underdog while other houses have gone ahead with Edmonton -1.
Despite the number of would be decent bettors that will pound Montreal, I would expect pressure to continue on Edmonton as far as the line is concerned, but not too far, as these Edmonton bettors just got burned last week on a line that was suspiciously small.
All models indicate a lower score than the early posted total of 45.5 and it is no surprise that we see 45 and even 44.5 in some places. While there is upwards pressure to a certain extent I wouldn’t be surprised to see continual downward pressure on this line. It seems almost everyone will be looking for a defensive game.
I am carefully weighing certain market metrics and don’t see either of these lines getting away from a potential play. As for now, while I have Edmonton winning convincingly, I may be looking for a pass on this game.
Here’s something interesting. In every game after week 2 that Montreal has been in, the models have failed against the money line. For some populations of bettors that streak will end and for others, it will continue. Remember, this is the first week that the models are split, indicating separate winners.
Also up until this week, a progressively sharper line that I have been making has been on the same side as the models mentioned above. This week, I have Edmonton scoring 24 or 25 points to a mere 3 or 7 for Montreal.
I believe some houses that will get hit with limit bets early on have been keeping this line at a pick ‘em, not divulging a favorite or underdog while other houses have gone ahead with Edmonton -1.
Despite the number of would be decent bettors that will pound Montreal, I would expect pressure to continue on Edmonton as far as the line is concerned, but not too far, as these Edmonton bettors just got burned last week on a line that was suspiciously small.
All models indicate a lower score than the early posted total of 45.5 and it is no surprise that we see 45 and even 44.5 in some places. While there is upwards pressure to a certain extent I wouldn’t be surprised to see continual downward pressure on this line. It seems almost everyone will be looking for a defensive game.
I am carefully weighing certain market metrics and don’t see either of these lines getting away from a potential play. As for now, while I have Edmonton winning convincingly, I may be looking for a pass on this game.
Here’s something interesting. In every game after week 2 that Montreal has been in, the models have failed against the money line. For some populations of bettors that streak will end and for others, it will continue. Remember, this is the first week that the models are split, indicating separate winners.
