CFL

[Viravolta]

GL to all! My rating model says that recent offence performance of Montreal is worse then Calgary, compensated with tougher defence. All in all, the ratings of these two teams are so close, that I don't know what to think. However, taking into account scoring and club situations, I got a position on the +5.5 for Montreal. Let's see. Enjoy the game! I will follow Jayvegas420's example and open a beer... it's the Swiss national day today.

[KVB]

Here’s something to consider. I know I am writing about CFL markets here, but the CFL is only one of many functioning markets. The idea of splitting money and money flow can be approached from a broader perspective; you can bet a good bookmaker does.

After all, most books are taking action on most markets concurrently and they are running a business, including taking positions and diversification…

Consider Thursday and Saturday, this week…

[KVB]

Good Luck Volta,

I agree, they've done a good job with the line here, forcing folks to gamble a bit.

Happy Swiss day, I take it you are in Switzerland?

[KVB]

17-0 in the first quarter. Too much too soon.

A Calgary comeback will make for a good over, if it doesn't come before the half, we may have a half time bet.

Look for that halftime bet to equal a final result of Calgary to win the game.

[KVB]

Two quick Calgary TD's, lol, losing that halftime potential bet as I write. I think the cat is out of the bag. Halftime bet will be much tougher now.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Yup. The early lead killed any chance of my team under hitting. GL with your plays guys.

[KVB]

17-0 in the first quarter. Too much too soon.

A Calgary comeback will make for a good over, if it doesn't come before the half, we may have a half time bet.

Look for that halftime bet to equal a final result of Calgary to win the game.

Calgary, trailing by 3 is favored by 4 for the second half...

Fools going to bet Calgary and books going to position for it.

[KVB]

Calgary, trailing by 3 is favored by 4 for the second half...

Fools going to bet Calgary and books going to position for it.

Some houses offering -4.5 now.

[KVB]

I may have been led right down a path here, things being so perfect, but let's get this. I just took Calgary Stampeders -210 for the 2nd half over the Montreal Alouettes.

Remember, I bet the same unit, so I did not risk twice a normal bet here, I risked the same amount, taking a smaller payout.

Let's see how dirty they want to play.

[KVB]

Five point game in the fourth.

[Jayvegas420]

Not watching, how much time left?

[KVB]

25-20 Calgary winning with ball in own territory (punt from Montreal) 6:45 to go in 4th.

[badgerguy]

How has this not gone over 48 yet?

[Jayvegas420]

I chickened out in the end & parlayed ML with Raffa.

[badgerguy]

Fukking disgusting this didn't go over.

[noddse]

Anyone who was on the -+4.5 spread? Calgary up 25-20, 7 seconds remaining, Mitchell throws a 35 yard backwardspass into the endzone, they concede a safety to end the game. 25-22.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Hahaha. My u26.5 hit? Ummmm... Ok. Thanks world.

[KVB]

GL to all! My rating model says that recent offence performance of Montreal is worse then Calgary, compensated with tougher defence. All in all, the ratings of these two teams are so close, that I don't know what to think. However, taking into account scoring and club situations, I got a position on the +5.5 for Montreal. Let's see. Enjoy the game! I will follow Jayvegas420's example and open a beer... it's the Swiss national day today.

Hahaha. My u26.5 hit? Ummmm... Ok. Thanks world.

[KVB]

…Even when you can grasp one piece of what’s happening around you, it can still be difficult to come out ahead and make it worth profit…

…But a 5 point game keeps the marketplace on their heels.

I feel the CFL is getting tighter and you may see tonight just how so.

Counting that missed field goal, and the shady final play, pretty tight. We battled the bookie this round, not the other players.

We got used on the over; there was a clear message being sent.

Now listen, if it stings a bit that the Over didn’t come, or stings that your -5 actually lost, fear not, that’s just what the system and the books want. Do not let emotions get the best of you.

Know that it should have gone over, and the reasoning was sound, but it was a trap for one side no matter how you swing it. They were selling the Over by game time for sure. Know that we examined the possibility of an extremely close game and that the final Montreal bet could pay.

...It’s a matter of sophistication on all levels. We have to understand our competition and they are getting sophisticated. Thankfully, the books have revealed some secrets, now it’s a cat and mouse game of deception.

So with that in mind, we’ll do what we can to follow that money around, pick off what the books do, accept the traps if we fall into them, ride some sharp waves, sniff out manipulation and, most importantly, learn from any mistakes.

One quarter of a season at a time.

Patience is a key but some traps are going to be there. It is nearly impossible to navigate these heavy vines to get to the sweet roses without getting pricked. Notice I only entered that position on the Over once in bold, and settled with the money line play, I saw the risk.

Just like in stocks, it’s not what you make, it’s what you keep. We knew that this Total situation was a hairy puzzle from the beginning. Indeed, that’s how it played out on the field.

It’s tough to actually get to have some cake and then eat it too, but we will at one point, we will. In the words Walters, “sometimes you get some feathers, sometimes you get the whole chicken.”

We’ll stick to our guns and get some roses…

[KVB]

Putting extra thought behind your plays will help you understand the context. Some losses we know will come back around. We have their number now, we will get our vengeance and we will hammer it hard. We just need patience...

[KVB]

Here’s something to consider. I know I am writing about CFL markets here, but the CFL is only one of many functioning markets. The idea of splitting money and money flow can be approached from a broader perspective; you can bet a good bookmaker does.

After all, most books are taking action on most markets concurrently and they are running a business, including taking positions and diversification…

Consider Thursday and Saturday, this week…

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Take note of the results last week, and the results this week...see if you notice anything.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Alright gents, except for the over tonight, looks like a pretty good (if not lucky) day. I'm passing on the Hamilton game. Will be back with my numbers for next week as soon as I can get them out. Likely Tuesday or so.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend...

[Viravolta]

I feel so lucky being in Europe... NOT being able to watch the games live. Would have a heart attack so far! Better that way. My model told me the game will be tide. Just got lucky with the spread. Lol and that under again... this time was close though!

Anyway, jumping into the HAM game, let's see what the numbers are saying.

[Viravolta]

Ok, so I take position on -3.5 HAM. According to the model HAM currently are in much better form then TOR. Offence rating is way way better then the TOR rating. Just a bit down on the defence. It will probably be another tide match, but I think HAM will cover the -3.5. Still a day till then, but I take position now, and will see what else will put tomorrow. GL

[HeeluvaGuy]

What do we make of the move down to 53.5 for tonight's game? (Yeah, I know, I said I was passing...)

[KVB]

I'm opening my 2nd beer & I can't help thinking about how much money I'm leaving on the table if I don't pound Stamps to cover….

...This is why I choose Calgary to win and won’t kick myself if they cover. After all, those buying Calgary to cover today are getting the worst of it, pulling some money away from that bet.

A Montreal upset would be tipping point, in my opinion, of this underdog market and we would see predictable consequences. A Calgary cover tonight could also mean the market has tipped, also offering consequences but not as forward looking or as ahead of the curve (unless you were on the same things I was yesterday, that would be one day ahead).

But a 5 point game keeps the marketplace on their heels.

I feel the CFL is getting tighter and you may see tonight just how so...

It might seem like I’m talking some bettors out of what seems like a good bet. Assessing all the risks can be difficult and I’m not always going to be right.

One thing I didn’t mention above in terms of market direction was the Calgary win, but Montreal cover…the 3 point game we had the other night.

It wasn’t an upset and it wasn’t a blowout so rest assured that the Montreal cover has a result on the markets that is much closer to the 5 point game than the other choices.

And once again, the same as the total puzzle, it played out on the field with the same ambiguity. That was a 5 point game then a pass that distance, backwards?

The market still has uncertainty…you can believe that.

[KVB]

The Toronto versus Hamilton game on Monday seems to have a pretty sharp line. I’ve got what I could consider a pretty realistic line with Hamilton winning 27-24. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Total, now at 55 comes back towards 54.

The side is what I’m after right now. I have identified and will talk later about some pressures that may come about before Monday that could move this line to -4. As such, I am taking an early position in Hamilton Tiger-cats -3.5 (-106) over Toronto Argonauts.

Something is always brewing.

The markets show slight pressure on the favorite price wise, and they indicate downward pressure on the total tonight, as both were predicted. Pinny is having trouble coming off of 54.5 charging -118 for the Under, I mentioned toward 54 above.

But many houses are offering a total of 53.5 and, since I believe I can see why the pressures are what they are, I’m going to do the bookie a favor and lend support to his falling line by picking up the Over 53.5 (-105) for Toronto vs. Hamiliton.

I am not picking up multiple positions here between houses and prices because I recognize the risk here. These really are the scraps of a pile that has already fallen. I wrote this earlier…

...I have bolded this play with the thought, once again, of the long haul in mind. A loss here is once again likely to be recuperated. As the season progresses we will get a better feel for acceptable risk in these situations...

As the season progresses I am sure I will be passing on total bets in this similar situation; but because of what I’ve seen this week, and the stage of the season we are in, I am taking a shot.

If you enter the market here, don’t bother with a 54 point line. In my opinion it’s just not worth it here.

[Big Bear]

Week 3 starts Thursday.

8 for 8 underdogs covered every game so far

how many won str8 up?

[KVB]

Basically Bear of the 23 games so far, 18 dogs have covered. Of those 18, 12 have outright won.

Of the five favorites that covered, one game closed as a pick.

In the other 4 games, the Edmonton Eskimos have been the team to cover the spread.

[Viravolta]

Huh... got back to the opener 54.5... what a bull****. I took a small position two days ago on under 55. My calculations are suggesting a -3.5 cover for HAM, so I took a position there as well. KVB you're absolutely right about the pressure. If the market goes down again to 53.5 I will think of one cover bet for over that total. GL guys!

[Jayvegas420]

Craziest opening TD of the season!

[KVB]

Just got to the computer, I see a punt for at touchdown...wtf?

[KVB]

TSN says Hamilton "...connected on an onside-punt..."

[cankid]

Craziest opening TD of the season!

Great play and Hamilton has tried that many times before in the past, Toronto looked like a deer in headlights

[KVB]

http://www.tsn.ca/cfl-must-see/video/cfl-must-see-ticats-recover-pooch-kick-for-opening-td~670736

Cankid's right, Argos frozen.