CFL

[HeeluvaGuy]

Here's my Thursday night fade:

EDM -2 (-105)

I might be getting trapped here, but I'll take my chances where I see value. As for my remaining leans, right now I like: OTT +pts; MTL tt u24; TOR tt 029.5. Not sure if I'll play any of these, but that's what I'm thinking as of right now.

GL to everyone!

[KVB]

…Many will think this line opened off with a pick em spread. We should expect to see Edmonton money come into the market but also expect to see support for BC.

Notice that Thursday and Friday’s games both opened as a pick em. See if you can identify what money is being split, or at least appears to be being split…

For the Montreal vs. Ottawa game on Friday, I can make a line that is identical to Montreal’s game last week. It’s a line that has done very well all year but should start to falter. I see Heeluva guy has Ottawa favored but most lines I create give Montreal the nod...

Money has come in on Edmonton and Montreal, as expected and both lines, which opened as a pick em, have moved the same amount…indicating that, indeed, the books are splitting money (as predicted) inevitably sending one population in motion.

Aren't you looking for huge discrepancies between your model & the opener?

In a valid model it is generally true that the further the prediction is from the line, the better it should perform. This is not always a uniform progression, especially in football, nor is it always the case.

I am indeed making a pretty sharp line in some instances but I can tell you that much of the real sharp competition has even entered the market yet. Bettors have been succeeding with the same models all season long, these models haven’t been that sophisticated…but have performed outstandingly.

Now I know there is sharper money to come in because there is more to making a valid line than just taking a database and running regressions to make predictions. Even when you are ahead of the market in these cases, being able to incorporate current information is essential to staying sharp. We are still and will always be gathering current information.

Know that even the best models will fall short and there will be losers. My posts are designed to utilize a bit of market analysis to help us pull off of some losers and onto some winners. My posts have really been more about teaching, using examples offered. We’ve seen some great ones already.

So while the models give Edmonton an edge, some more than others, I know that they are not all tested and are not as sharp as one would think. I know that there are pressures on BC and there is a reason the line opened so low.

Maybe you could give the QB trend from above, but folks know about BC and Lulay at home. I think there is much more to it than home field and that it has to do with the marketplace.

So while this appears to be a great spot for Edmonton and their backers, and it very well could be, I can see the market implications and repercussions from this game.

I can see that the easy Edmonton winner, a small spread that many will pound, will likely be given back by most of those winners.

I initially was going to pick up BC as a contrarian play on the line move and decided to hold off. I would consider this a good sign for you Edmonton backers. Sure, I may be letting a winner go by; but, for me, I don’t need this game in this position. I’ll likely pick up a winner down the road as the path of money becomes clearer.

Another concern, for many bettors there is no limit to how high they’ll buy Edmonton; for others, who have more of a 5 to 7 point spread, they likely won’t go much more than 3 points.

For this first game, it seems the oddsmakers either tried to garner some Edmonton bets (not hard to do, I would think), were afraid of those of us identifying the BC pressures, including home field, or simply placed the line in a position that includes a broader program.

I can assure you, all three of these things happened and things are just too easy. The last time everything lined up so predictably, I was a predicting a 5 point game which was busted by a long pass backward for a safety at the buzzer.

I likely will not be taking the favorite in this game and for now see many reasons to pass. For the purposes of this thread, however, I will buy BC if certain conditions come to be.

[KVB]

Aren't you looking for huge discrepancies between your model & the opener?

Following my bold plays will not, in the end, do you wrong. I think you will also do just fine if you follow the predictions I give about the games. For this thread, I may dance around the bet for some games, but if you follow my line so far, even with any size discrepancies, for all the games, you have done very well this year.

Like I tried to explain above, the line making process is very dynamic and I will stay pretty sharp because I understand why it is dynamic.

The game scores predicted should continue to do well, especially very well against money lines, but price does matter long term there. Many times we get charged too much vig and you have to know when to enter.

I have metrics (some with regression) that involve the market place and combine that with my experience and I will make that sharp line a bit sharper. Again go back; you’ll see I have been pretty good at predicting the line movement, even if I don’t always bet with it.

Shit, one poster in another thread scoffed when I mentioned that the opening line moved towards my line close to 80 percent of the time. Go back and read this thread, it’s not that unrealistic. I’ve posted many times, it’s not what bettors don’t know that hurts them; it’s that what they do know is so wrong.

One might think I was an oddsmaker, or bookmaker, at one point. All I will say is that I am a bettor.

If you want to make it easy, take the predicted score I offer, whether I bet it or not, and line in up with how you would play the game out in your head.

If you think we have something, chime in for sure. I may have already considered it, or maybe not. Remember, I’m sticking close to the numbers and market analysis, using examples offered, so I am not including everything.

I’m giving pretty good responses when people chime in and am trying to use the opportunity to show a little about how it works, trying to explain in a simple fashion.

So definitely chime in if you want to hear from me about anything, especially why I might not be favoring the obvious play.

[KVB]

...they also dropped the total on Saskatchewan vs. Toronto to 48. In my opinion, this is possible manipulation, just like the first game. While there is a QB situation, possibly declining, in Saskatchewan, there is a reason that line opened at 48.5...

...I see upward pressure Saskatchewan vs. Toronto despite the facts that these teams are different than when they met in Week 2 and defenses have had time to adjust...

This line has ticked the half point back up to the opener, 48.5, just like the first game this week…ticking back up to 47.5.

So far I’ve been pretty spot on with the line movements…always something that deserves attention.

[KVB]

Here's my Thursday night fade:

EDM -2 (-105)

I might be getting trapped here, but I'll take my chances where I see value. As for my remaining leans, right now I like: OTT +pts; MTL tt u24; TOR tt 029.5. Not sure if I'll play any of these, but that's what I'm thinking as of right now.

GL to everyone!

Good Luck, I think this first game might be a pretty good game.

For the others, I have Toronto scoring 30 points and Montreal scoring 20-22 points.

If that line for Montreal vs. Ottawa stays at 46.5, never budging, then I think the game is going Over the total and I would avoid any Under bets in that game.

[noddse]

https://twitter.com/noddsefootball

esks without 7 starters offensively. hard to trust a team on road games that relies so much on their defense.

[true degenerate]

CFL Picks (5-1)

here's what my models show & what I'm doing:

Edmonton-1

Montreal-1.5

SSK+10

Hamilton-7

[Viravolta]

I've taken the following positions on earlier stage of the market:

EDM @ B.C. : EDM -1
EDM @ B.C. : over 47,5

For my rateform system I use only the recent matches and data. Even with the gaps in the offence, EDM still have higher offensive rating then BC. I will take my chances. No more positions on that game... My personal statistics show that I never had much of luck on the week opener. Anyway...

Goodluck to all!

[KVB]

CFL Picks (5-1)

here's what my models show & what I'm doing:

Edmonton-1

Montreal-1.5

SSK+10

Hamilton-7

This is a good post on which to comment. Now True degen, I’m not trying to take you down and I’m not saying you should change any plays. Shit, I don’t have to be right, and you could hit them all.

But let’s look closer…

Models of just about all levels are consistent with those plays you listed. Like I mentioned above, if you just follow my score predictions, you would have done very well so far. I have noted that many unsophisticated models have done very well so far this year.

Even this week, if you follow my scores for this week’s games you will come to the same plays as above.
I know from years of money flow parlays that money rarely flows certain ways.

So here’s what I like to do…

Take the four plays above, make them into a parley, and then ask yourself…what’s the parlay killer here?

Is it Edmonton? Information is coming out to question them. I’ve written on this game already and let me just say that I have made two moneyflow parlays, one for each result of tonight’s game.

How about Montreal? Look at last week, they fukked a lot of bettors on one side of the moneyflow, Calgary was a part of that too, but they are off this week. There are reasons to say fuk Montreal, just as there are to say fuk Toronto…can you see what I mean by that, and how money was split? Look back at some principles from earlier in the thread. And that brings us to the next game.

There is a lot of pressure on Saskatchewan to cover even the same line as last week. Seemed like everyone knew Hamilton was going to beat Toronto last week, one reason the spread seemed so sharp. Total picture aside, the market analysts got paid when Toronto folded and Hamilton stepped up.

Speaking of Hamilton, they’ve come through for certain types of bettors as the swing game two weeks in a row…that could be significant when we talk about the ebb and flow of money.

True degens' picks look solid, and at 5-1, you have room to win a couple and maybe give one back.

I just wanted to a bit of context and history on a week where the lines seem to be doing many models a favor.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Speaking of money flow, remember this parley from last week? It can be very telling in many ways.

Here's an example of a money flow parlay. I used to make these back in the day with different types of flows. When one would go all winners or all losers until the final pick...we knew when to load up.

I've known some real sharp players at parlay construction.

Ahhh, the wild days where we didn't have to be so conservative.


[ATTACH]83511[/ATTACH]

The fail in that parlay was the Over 47.5, a game that had 37 points in the first half.

I smell some revenge soon, and with tonight’s line dropping like it is, with Pinny offering the price at 47 that they do, I may be wrong on tonight’s game. I may have fallen for some bait, I may even sell back.

Remember this…

...I have so far chosen two Over bets this week based on various metrics. We may be seeing a season shift in the Totals market over the next two weeks.

I looked for a line move by the book, they gave it, and I jumped in with the Over in the first game. The first game can be a bit risky for these very reasons, just see last week’s first game. There was a take, before the give the next day.

Watch the lines closely. If my first total bet loses watch those lines for game 2. There is a very good chance the second bet will hit…making it an undisciplined pound play!

These are just some of the many reasons professional gamblers define patience and discipline as key factors in their success...

I think Pinny knew what they were doing and may have pulled a fast one early in the week.

I may be facing a pound play under a discipline money management system, what ever shall I do? At the very least, I’ll play as much as I can, and maybe more.

Notice that the line in the Montreal vs Ottawa game has not moved, locked at 46.5 with no price tendencies.






How often have we seen that type of behavior, no behavior, from a line this season?

Let’s see if that changes after tonight’s answer is revealed.

[Jayvegas420]

Terrible start

[HeeluvaGuy]

Terrible start

For what play? Seems like there wasn't a great consensus for this one.

[KVB]

We have 23 points by the with 7:35 to go in the 2nd. Do we have another Over dud?

Here's my entire 5 Dimes pending. These plays were all made before I assessed early potential line movements and were made before I wrote about any games this week.

I do make plays not posted here and, for those tracking in the thread, I only have one BOLD play for this game, the Over 47 (-106).

But here's my stab at the moneyflow early on and some positioning at that book.. It is my belief that this two pick parley will go 1-1, which is why I passed when BC moved to an underdog.

[KVB]

For what play? Seems like there wasn't a great consensus for this one.

I think many bought Edmonton here and I don't think anyone went with BC.

The thread has an Over play also, and if Edmonton can win this, then I think the Over is good.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I should have posted this before the start of tonight's game, but KVB - do you think an EDM win tonight will affect the line for the Friday game? Any chance the streak chasers move off of the dog and there's pressure on Montreal as the favorite with an Edmonton win tonight? (Or am I way off base?)

[KVB]

I can't find a decent half time bet here. If it's the favorite and the over tonight, a condition we haven't seen since the beginning of Week 3 on Thurs July 9th, then the halftime bets could go either way for that condition to be satisfied.

If I had a gun to my head, I would still take BC -.5 (+105) or the BC pick before betting Edmonton and I wouldn't touch the over.

Again, this is good news for you Edmonton backers as I am passing.

[KVB]

I should have posted this before the start of tonight's game, but KVB - do you think an EDM win tonight will affect the line for the Friday game? Any chance the streak chasers move off of the dog and there's pressure on Montreal as the favorite with an Edmonton win tonight? (Or am I way off base?)

Actually, I think they made the line moves early for a reason. If Edmonton covers tonight, I may be looking at an Ottawa bet. I do think there will be pressure on Montreal but there will also be pressure on Ottawa. With Edmonton succeeding, many will look for the split. A favorite in one game, underdog in the other, a streaking Edmonton hits while a streaking Montreal will fail. It's practically a natural for the book. And that's how they steer money.

We may not see much in the way of line movement, the books want us to gamble.

I think this could be the decoy that allows the Over in Friday's game to come clean. I think we have been battling the Books too much of late and less the rest of the bettors and with that think the side should probably be be a pass.

I'll be watching the lines to see.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Lol

[HeeluvaGuy]

Nothing like covering for 58 minutes and completely imploding. Edmonton couldn't adjust to not having Bowman. Offense was a nightmare.

[noddse]

bad coaching, too. why not kick the 48 yarder to tie the game? offense was stagnant all night, especially w/o bowman in the 2nd half. and k shaw has made 19 straight. 2nd of 3 bc wins b/c of poor coaching late by the opponents hcs.

[HeeluvaGuy]

bad coaching, too. why not kick the 48 yarder to tie the game? offense was stagnant all night, especially w/o bowman in the 2nd half. and k shaw has made 19 straight. 2nd of 3 bc wins b/c of poor coaching late by the opponents hcs.

Nice call with BC. I knew they were going to score on that final drive. Too many chances late not to get it right. I think that makes Lulay 19-2 now. Nice sweep by KVB as well.

On to tomorrow...

[KVB]

...picked up OVER 46.5 (-106) for Montreal Alouettes vs. Ottawa Redblacks. Bettors who failed, like I did, last week on this Over, those bettors who were stung, may get it back this week, and this could be the game. Those that hit the Under bet may go to the well again, only to give back...

...I looked for a line move by the book, they gave it, and I jumped in with the Over in the first game. The first game can be a bit risky for these very reasons, just see last week’s first game. There was a take, before the give the next day.

Watch the lines closely. If my first total bet loses watch those lines for game 2. There is a very good chance the second bet will hit…making it an undisciplined pound play!

These are just some of the many reasons professional gamblers define patience and discipline as key factors in their success.

...The fail in that parlay was the Over 47.5, a game that had 37 points in the first half.

I smell some revenge soon, and with tonight’s line dropping like it is, with Pinny offering the price at 47 that they do, I may be wrong on tonight’s game. I may have fallen for some bait, I may even sell back.

Remember this…


I think Pinny knew what they were doing and may have pulled a fast one early in the week.

I may be facing a pound play under a discipline money management system, what ever shall I do? At the very least, I’ll play as much as I can, and maybe more.

Notice that the line in the Montreal vs Ottawa game has not moved, locked at 46.5 with no price tendencies.


How often have we seen that type of behavior, no behavior, from a line this season?

Let’s see if that changes after tonight’s answer is revealed.

Tonight’s game had 33 points at halftime. Read the above posts; go to the originals, read them again.

Try to imagine the audience that this market is playing to. Can you think of any reason why the market might try to “hide” the answer in the first game or make it appear to go be one thing, when it actually isn’t?

When we see a 33 point first half I’m reluctant to buy tomorrow’s Over, after all, I was looking for the Under tonight. Shit, when people went to bed the Over in this game seemed in the bag.

Then there’s a minute left and memories of last week come to play, especially to us, analyzing the market, we start to think this game is an Under. Ask again, can you think of a reason why the market would want to hide an Under result tonight?

Then the unthinkable happens; an interception midfield and the Over. The hidden aspect of this game didn’t occur with a misleading first half, after all it equaled the result, but actually made it appear to be an Under to a certain audience.

When some of those guys wake up in the morning they will still see the Over and be less likely to buy tomorrow’s game. Those of us who stayed awake, we have to not only deal with an Over in the first game, but also have to wonder why we may have been deceived that it was Under.

These bettors may even add to the Under momentum that is likely to kick in by game time.

They will not shake this bettor from what he knows and therefore I have added Over 46.5 (-102) and Over 46.5 (-103) Over 46.5 (-110) and Over 46.5 (+100) for Montreal Alouettes vs. Ottawa Redblacks.

Expect that line to fall but will forego the half point for now. If it drops to 46 and ends in a push I will know what I did.

I bet with rules, that said, load up fellas. I think we’ve been patient enough and here comes some redemption.

[KVB]

BC QB Lulay is 16-2 or so at BC Place.

...esks without 7 starters offensively. hard to trust a team on road games that relies so much on their defense.

Good info for this game. Certain facts can help us align to the markets.

Good Posts

[KVB]

One of the things I like to do is a quick sanity check with other predictors. I'm fond of Massey just because his are pretty real time and he has all of the leagues. Take a look here:

http://www.masseyratings.com/pred.php?s=cfl

Pretty strong correlations on Edmonton and my total for that one. My #s on the Toronto game match his almost exactly.

Massey failed on the first two bets, but let's track him. If he goes on a streak of Totals or Sides failing we can gain evidence to confirm thoughts about the flow of money.

This could help us find or confirm a bet for Sunday.

[KVB]

Guys notice that Under at Tim Hortons Field is 7-0 in regular season games with a maximum of 5 offensive tds scored in those. Hamilton also just placed starting RB CJ Gable and leading receiver Andy Fantuz on the 6-Game Injury List.

Most models have around 47 to 51 points and the Total has been dropping from 54 to 52.5 in some places.

This aligns with your information noddse, but do we have a bet yet? I'm waiting for more market information to come through.

Another good post nod.

[KVB]

Some houses adjusting their lines upward for tonight’s game with Montreal and Ottawa. They are no doubt getting hit with some big bucks and are trying to protect themselves as I see some 47’s out there.





Note that those same houses are adjusting the Saturday game to 49, remember the case for the Over I was discussing a few posts back?

...Given the defensive situations with these teams we could be looking at another Over play, but the story in Saskatchewan could be bleak, not just increasing that Toronto favorite, but really affecting the total score. I mentioned a bit about this game above and that it opened so low for a reason.

...I see upward pressure Saskatchewan vs. Toronto despite the facts that these teams are different than when they met in Week 2 and defenses have had time to adjust.

Expect these totals to once again do something interesting this week, a la last week’s puzzle...

The last time these two teams played they scored a combined 82 points, the highest scoring game so far this year.

Now, since they’ve played once, defenses can usually make some adjustments. Also, Saskatchewan isn’t playing with the same QB…obvious signs pointing to fewer points.

But the total is only 48 points. If Toronto is able to gain one more score because of a lack of offensive conversions by Saskatchewan and get to a 34 or 36 point game, then Saskatchewan only needs two to three scores to bring it over 48.

Sounds reasonable, right? Toronto failed us last week, a real let down, this week they could bounce back at home, right?

As usual, I think we should follow the money...

I’d like to see what happens tonight before a decision for tomorrow's bet, but you can see that some houses are shading the lines to protect themselves.

They say that for sharp bettors the trouble isn’t creating the line, it’s getting enough down at the price you want.

Again, note that so many houses are stuck on 46.5. Some bettors react, one way or another on just line movement. It certainly looks like that behavior is being discouraged.

Consider this, if you were a book getting hit with limit bets and just wanted it to stop, would you move the line?

I have picked up Over 46.5 (-101) and Over 46.5 (-105) for Montreal Alouettes vs. Ottawa Redblacks.

[BamaCBass]

You're saying they would stop the bleeding by ticking up a half pt or not touch it as to avoid providing additional information? The latter I believe you're saying due to the manner in which many bettors react to line movement...

[KVB]

You're saying they would stop the bleeding by ticking up a half pt or not touch it as to avoid providing additional information? The latter I believe you're saying due to the manner in which many bettors react to line movement...

Whether that line moves up or down, different bettors react differently. Some might go with the push, some might go against. It also depends on other factors at play influencing those bettors, they don’t always do the same thing every time.

But those are small beans. Sure, the books simply don’t want action here from those beans, but there is a much bigger influence.

If the book changes the line, we can bet again. If they move again, we can bet again. It doesn’t matter the direction, the books are all filled up on 46.5.

That’s right my friend, win or lose, you are now playing with the big boys; the boys who can’t get enough down.

Maybe it’s so sharp that money is evenly balanced, but I don’t think so and I don’t think Bookmaker has it so. And look, Pinny is charging -101 for the over, making sure not put it in plus territory, for fear it may tip off Over bettors.

I could be wrong here, but I don’t think the line matters. The final result will likely be in the 10-12 point tease killing range, Over or Under.

After hitting the Total and Side yesterday, anything can happen in this give and take world, but I’m sticking by the Over and I will know why if we see a 10-0 game.

Good Luck

[KVB]

...These bettors may even add to the Under momentum that is likely to kick in by game time...

...Expect that line to fall but will forego the half point for now. If it drops to 46 and ends in a push I will know what I did...

We’re starting to see some of that Under money come in but not a whole lot of line shifts or much in price changes.

I mentioned I would be taking on the bettors more, instead of the book.

Here could be a case of small groups with a lot of money going against other groups and basically the larger number of bettors in the betting public.

Let’s see what happens as we get to about an hour until game time.

[jjgold]

Montreal -2 tonight

hunch play..action play

[KVB]

I’m taking Over 46 (-105) for Montreal Alouettes vs. Ottawa Redblacks because I expected the houses to drop. This is a good entry point, in my opinion, if you have been holding out.

Somebody has been led down a path here. Again, coming off of calling the side and total in the last game, I’m going to consider it just another reason not to go with the Over. Win or lose, I will not be talked out of it by the books.

Do you know where your sharp money is? (he said in an ominous voice)

I will look into halftime but may not be able to post.

Good Luck

[Mike Huntertz]

Nice stuff, tail over 46.5 +102

[HeeluvaGuy]

Friday night fade:

Ottawa ml +125

Looks like I'm on an island here but I'm not (too) afraid...

GL everyone, whatever you play! 🍻

[noddse]

public short road favorites in football? y'all should know how this games end most of the time.

[cutter341975]

Laid a bet on MTL +1.5 at even money hope I don't get played like last time when I lost all my drawers and had to give head to another dude...you guys talked me into it

wow!! it was THAT bad?