The Two-Pick Parlay

[KVB]

Recently there was a flurry of posts from a certain poster; and some of them got me thinking about just how little many gamblers know, how that hurts them, and how a place like a casino takes advantage. Let’s start real basic, old school style.

You walk into my shop and I greet you at a table somewhere on the floor. I’m holding in my hand a bag and in that bag are 10 marbles. Exactly 7 of those marbles are red and 3 of those marbles are white. I will bet you even money that you cannot take two consecutive red marbles out of the bag. You do not return the first marble drawn before taking a second marble.

Do you take the bet? If not, as a three digit money line, what would I need to offer to change your mind?

For you veterans, those laughing at the simplicity of the task, I will always welcome, need, and want your knowledge in my threads. So for you guys, let’s take it a small step further.

At $100 per bet, and stated as a percentage, what is average long term return for this even money bet? If I offered $120 to your $100, stated as a percentage, what would that average return change to?

Let’s change the analysis. If I offered $270 dollars to your $100 that you can’t pull two consecutive red marbles out of the bag, how many of the 7 red marbles would you allow me to convert to white before you wouldn’t play the game?

And for guys breezing through, a question, maybe a bit more challenging, for you could be this…where would you place the table to greet the customer and why? And for fun, say you owned a grocery store, where in the grocery store would you place the game? Why?

So, would you take the bet?

If you are having difficulty or can’t answer the above questions, including table placement, you need to be able to, because I assure you, we winners can.

[kidcudi92]

i hated marbles in school

[KVB]

[niming]

so if the first marble is red, that leaves 6 red and 3 white so there is a 66.66% chance that the next one is red

if the first marble is white and the next one is red, that leaves 6 red and 2 white, so the chance for another red marble is 75%

you are offering some nice odds there

my question is. what was the post you read that made you post this?

[KVB]

If the first marble is white, you lose.

[niming]

If the first marble is white, you lose.

i missed that piece of info. it was a long post and read it superficially

so 0.7 x 0.6666 = 0.4666 chance to hit the parlay evens is value

[KVB]

i missed that piece of info. it was a long post and read it superficially

so 0.7 x 0.6666 = 0.4666 chance to hit the parlay evens is value

So would you take the bet?

[niming]

So would you take the bet?

no. I ment "evens is not value"

1/0.4666 = 2.14 I would take anything above that so 100 to win 120 would be ok

[niming]

so do I pass the test? can I keep gambling?

[kidcudi92]

so do I pass the test? can I keep gambling?

do not pass go, do not collect $200

[KVB]

The correlation of marbles and sports betting does not go hand in hand.

Also there are no statistical advantage as you have locked the odds in with marbles at 70/30.

Bad example.

These questions are extremely basic and encompass basic numbers. If you want to be a winning gambler, you should understand the very basic of concepts. Not being able to answer the questions indicates one level of gambling knowledge.

Of course, not understanding the application of the above to any marketplace risk, whether sports or not, indicates another level of gambling knowledge.

[KVB]

so do I pass the test? can I keep gambling?

I’m not handing out the licenses, I’m not the ultimate master and don’t do it for me, but ask yourself…how are you doing on the rest of the questions?

[KVB]

Uh-oh, one poster passes, wants better odds, but another poster’s going for it, says odds are already in his favor.

And this is just the 1^st question.

[niming]

70% the first shot.

Then odds go to 66%

Its in your favorite both times.

The right answer is yes.

you need both of them to hit so the probability is 0.7 x 0.6666 = 0.4666

[niming]

Let’s change the analysis. If I offered $270 dollars to your $100 that you can’t pull two consecutive red marbles out of the bag, how many of the 7 red marbles would you allow me to convert to white before you wouldn’t play the game?

just 1. if you take 2 out there is no more value

i don't understand the grocery store questions. if you want to take the guy's money you will probably put it at the entrance to catch him before he starts spending

[niming]

or near the tomatoes. red color to his subconscious increases his optimism. lol

[KVB]

just 1. if you take 2 out there is no more value

i don't understand the grocery store questions. if you want to take the guy's money you will probably put it at the entrance to catch him before he starts spending

Ha. But if you’re slayer, and you think the player has the advantage, I suppose you would wait until they were leaving, like he said. He's consistent.

But seriously, the placement question has to do with being aware of the psychology of your adversary, not the bookmaker, but the other bettors in the marketplace.

[niming]

But seriously, the placement question has to do with being aware of the psychology of your adversary, not the bookmaker, but the other bettors in the marketplace.

so the tomatoes answer is closer to being right?

[ItsMeMrMattE]

i have no problem admitting i am terrible at math. i don't really use it when making picks. i mainly use line movement, trends, info i can find on the internet, and that good ole gut feeling. so im happy to have someone on here that is able and willing to teach. when do we get the answers to the above questions and when is the next lesson? if i had to answer now tho, keep in mind its been forever since ive taken a math class, the first one, do i take the bet? well if its known ahead of time that i can negotiate the odds then i'm gonna get better odds. no idea what the average long term return would be. i would probably be fine with 5 red and 5 white at +270. you will prove me wrong on that tho im sure. in the grocery store, i would place the game next to the alcohol or cigarettes. they go hand and hand with gambling for most.

[Russian Rocket]

I would place a gambling table next to the fukking ATM machine

if I could, I'd drill a hole in the middle of the gambling table and stick the ATM right in there...

[KVB]

Good post MattE. But do you take the even money bet?

[KVB]

I would place a gambling table next to the fukking ATM machine

if I could, I'd drill a hole in the middle of the gambling table and stick the ATM right in there...

Thanks for checking in Rocket. As far as maximizing gains...a creative answer. Creativity is essential to long term success.

[Russian Rocket]

Thanks for checking in Rocket. As far as maximizing gains...a creative answer. Creativity is essential to long term success.

I like this thread KVB...keep up the good work!

[ItsMeMrMattE]

if i walk into a grocery store and some random guy is standing in there with a bag of marbles wanting to make bets... then no i dont take the even money bet. he seems shady. that's that gut feeling coming into play there.

[KVB]

if i walk into a grocery store and some random guy is standing in there with a bag of marbles wanting to make bets... then no i dont take the even money bet. he seems shady. that's that gut feeling coming into play there.

It’s essential to know the numbers here.

But that gut feeling, that intuition, can be the unconscious product of years of experience, and absolutely should not be ignored. Of course, that can depend on your intelligence.

You’ve learned to trust yourself and have seen that pay off.

That’s a great lesson for everyone in this forum and could easily warrant another thread.

[Russian Rocket]

Another place where you can put this table at a grocery store, could be an area where people have to wait for something for some period of time...say a Deli counter or something like that. People do stupid things when they try to kill time plus their mind would be already preoccupied with a sandwich that they're about to get.

[KVB]

Good thinking Rocket. You just know the slot machine bank by the buffet line is on the tighter end of the spectrum when compared to the casino floor, possibly with the exception of one machine… the dangling carrot, if you will.

[Russian Rocket]

Good thinking Rocket. You just know the slot machine bank by the buffet line is on the tighter end of the spectrum when compared to the casino floor, possibly with the exception of one machine… the dangling carrot, if you will.

Interesting...I didn't know that. I don't gamble in a casino...so I'm not that familiar with a layout.
I remember reading about one study, where they had 50 volunteers in a single room play roulette, piping in different combinations of music and lighting colors. A combo of red lights and fast-tempo music made people bet at a faster pace than did white lights and no music or slow music, probably because it matched gamblers’ images of a sexy, high-stakes casino.

[niming]

even if i bet on instinct, i try to ask at what lower price i would not take the bet anymore

[niming]

Interesting...I didn't know that. I don't gamble in a casino...so I'm not that familiar with a layout.

i did not know that either. don't frequent casinos

[SEAHAWKHARRY]

I just parlayed dodgers and rockies guess I'm throwing money away..lol

[ItsMeMrMattE]

@niming for me its a constant. MLB is all i really seriously bet on at the moment. (-150) on ML is my limit. anything above that usually pushes me into the RL or no bet at all.

[niming]

@niming for me its a constant. MLB is all i really seriously bet on at the moment. (-150) on ML is my limit. anything above that usually pushes me into the RL or no bet at all.

different from game to game for me. today (posted in other threads) i had yankees and detroit.

yankees +130 would have taken anything above +120

detroit +105 wanted to take anything above +100 maybe even -106

rarely do i have a -140 bet, usually it's above -125

stakes different depending on recent form and confidence. if i am already in profits, i might increase stakes and build a streak until i lose confidence and feel i need to slow down, if i am out of form, decrease stakes. i am old school gambler, no analysis and math, i am happy if end month with profit.

[jjgold]

parlays are for suckers
gamblers always make bad decisions
its why we never win

Many do not know the math

[ItsMeMrMattE]

@niming im with ya there. when its all said and done, it comes down to profit. with differences in people come different ways to make that profit. however adding different tools to the belt never hurts.

KVB. you seem to have a gift for taking something that might seem complex to most and putting it into examples that anyone can relate to. looking forward to the conclusion of this lesson and the start of your next one. points to you every time you put one up.