CFL

[KVB]

Books seem to be struggling with CFL totals?

I don't think so. These total lines haven't really budged all week. There has been balance, some money coming in on the Under for game two now.

This game had a high line for a reason. I think the books are trying to hold steady after yesterday's payout.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Wow. Over players just got the shaft.

[KVB]

Wow. Over players just got the shaft.

Out numbers predicted mid 60's. That line held at 54.5. I'm glad I passed on that one.

[BamaCBass]

Wow, that hook was big. LOL

Wouldn't be surprised to see Heel's under cash. Big games often lend themselves to tough D.

[BamaCBass]

KVB, you staying with your original position or buying back?

[KVB]

I’m going to hold my position with Edmonton. I have some mixed metrics here that would clear up with this game’s result. I am not going to react to the market with Total, nor with the side. If this play loses, particularly the side, I’m confident this situation will return to pay off.

If there were a sudden drop to -3.5, which is unlikely, I would consider Calgary.
It’s a little funny, my posts talk of Hamilton getting it and they do. Yesterday I passed on Saskatchewan and they crush; now I’ve talked of buying Calgary since I bought Edmonton.

I’m holding here. I’d like to see this metric resolve today, but I’m prepared to get it done later if it doesn’t pay now. Let’s see how it gets handled on the field.

[KVB]

I'm going ahead with the first half bet. I picked up Edmonton Eskimos 1st half +2.5 (-110) over Calgary Stampeders.

[HeeluvaGuy]

OK. I chickened out (kinda). Just took o39.5 live for a middle window between 40-49. Would have liked to get it down to 37 or 38, but I'll live with this one.

GL fellas!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Well, 34 is available now... oh well. Live and learn. 40 seems like a pipe dream at this point.

[BamaCBass]

Well, we saw domination in the first half of both games today by home teams. Anybody think we see this second half as the tale of two halves? I doubt anyone gives them a chance after that ugly performance in the first. Also a pick in the 2nd half like earlier game today...

[KVB]

I went ahead and picked up Edmonton Eskimos 2nd half pk (+107) versus Calgary Stampeders.

Good Luck

[KVB]

I think the books were drawing some of us bettors in here. I took the 2nd half +107 with expectation of seeing that again if I lose. We saw similar situations in the first half of the season.

It could get ugly for Edmonton.

[BamaCBass]

Maybe, but my guess is that bettors pounded Stamps in the 2nd half. I got in live at the beginning of the third @ +14.5 so GL to us both. We'll get it this game or soon enough.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Here's an update on the raw numbers:

		Sides		Totals
		W	L	W	L
Week 5		3	1	1	3
Week 6		4	0	1	3
Week 7		2	2	2	2
Week 8		1	3	3	1
Week 9		1	3	2	2
Week 10		1	3	3	1
Week 11		2	2	3	1
Totals		14	14	15	13

Totals have done pretty well the past several weeks.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Here's what I have for this week:

		Side		Total
Toronto		22.2		65
Winnipeg		-2.1		53.9
Edmonton		-8.2		45
BC		-8.7		51.6

[Hngkng]

Hamilton -3.5 should be a good bet.
I don't think Toronto's defense will get enough pressure on Hamilton's QB to stop their offense.

[icecapper]

Ticats D dominates Trevor Harris again. Ricky Ray still on the shelf.

[Jayvegas420]

Good picks so, far. I am leaning TI Cats too.
Even if Toronto shows up I think Hamilton can handle them .

[HeeluvaGuy]

I'm gonna see if I can cool off my totals so o53 tonight. Lol

GL to everyone!

[KVB]

Been having computer problems.

May not get a detailed write up until later.

I have a predicted score of Hamilton with again over 40 points to Toronto's 16.

Over could be a good bet, Hamilton could get there themselves.

Hamilton should be favored by more, in my opinion.

May have to pass due to time constraints. Can't fully handicap.

[CanuckG]

I think Eskimos end their losing streak vs Calgary at home. Also Lions over Ottawa.

[KVB]

I just got back. Here's the start of a write up for tonight's game. When I went to post earlier...more computer problems.

I know it's late, but I'm passing so there is no play...

For tonight’s game I have Hamilton scoring once again over 40 points, maybe even 50 to Toronto’s 16 points. This in opened with Hamilton -3.5, ticked up to 4 briefly, then back to 3.5 where it sits now. The Total opened at 53.5, also ticked up a half point to 54, then down to 53.

The first three games this week are all rematches of last week; talk about steering money and give and take. Last week my predicted scores were 3-1 against spreads, 3-1 against moneylines, and 2-2 against the total. Despite a few misses, last week I showed profit in the bold plays.

For this first game I’m going to pass. Last week it seems I let some winners go by and I may have to let Hamilton go tonight. This is the highest predicted score I’ve had for any team all season and that could spell disaster for the Hamilton cover.

This game starts the flow of money so it will be interesting to see who covers. This game could be closer than my prediction suggests. There are some models predicting a closer game and Toronto has some motivation here.

[Jayvegas420]

40-16...
How do u pass?

[Booya711]

I got the fuggen tiger cats -3.5 tonight

[KVB]

40-16...
How do u pass?

There can be many reasons to pass, or even buy the other way. I had a computer problem and time issue today. I couldn't get everything I wanted down on paper. So I was a bit hesitant today.

In week 10 I had Hamilton beating Montreal 36 or 37 to 16 or 17 and I bet Montreal +450. Of course, it doesn't always work out that way.

Remember, as successful as my predictions have been, I'm not just following them. I think I did mention one would do fine just following them but I'm analyzing the markets. In looking at this game, I find this line is pretty low at -3.5 and I'm not surprised it moved up before game time. I didn't get a chance to write more about that before kickoff. Also, I have other metrics that indicate this could be a mere 3 point game, where Toronto doesn't get the upset, but Hamilton doesn't get the cover, or even an upset.

While my prediction says 40 to 16 I actually have Hamilton scoring in a "40 or more" zone here. I have them getting to 50 points. That means I figure 66 to 67 total points tonight, similar to HeeluvaGuy, yet I passed on the total.

It seems I've been a little reluctant to pull the trigger here the last two weeks. I do think it has cost me but I would like to see some more information this week before deciding which way the money may be trying to flow.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I'll add that I often stay away when a game looks "too good" under my numbers. That often means that my model is missing something. Sometimes I can figure out what it is, sometimes not. This week I've just decided to roll with the hot hand and see if I can cool it off or just ride the mini-wave.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Got the over. Hang in there Hamilton backers!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Wheee!!!! Everyone's a winner. It's like a table win in Blackjack!

[Booya711]

Hamilton !!!!

[Hngkng]

That was closer than I expected, did not expect the Hamilton defense to have a few busts. But great Hamilton win!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Any thoughts today? I'm mulling the over.

[Jayvegas420]

I like the under in both games.
Bet them yesterday.
However the 1st game total has dropped 2 full points.

[Hngkng]

In the first game I like Saskatchewan to win. I can't see Winnipeg beating Saskatchewan, even with a change at QB.

[KVB]

There are two games today and, once again, I expect deception. Right off the bat, from looking at some basic metrics, I see this day as a late Saskatchewan cover and an Edmonton win. Like yesterday, I have a bit of a blowout. I have Saskatchewan scoring 39 points to Winnipeg’s 19 or 20. Many models actually have Winnipeg winning this game at home by a few points. With further pressure on Winnipeg to not only cover a spread but to get an apparent revenge on Saskatchewan I can see why this line opened with Saskatchewan -2 early and has seen some Winnipeg pressure down to 1.

I’ve mentioned some reasons to pick up Winnipeg above and countering my successful prediction from yesterday becomes another. Further, while Saskatchewan just beat Winnipeg, the two played another game in week 1. Winnipeg upset Saskatchewan in Winnipeg. Saskatchewan just got revenge and this is the third game. There may be a perception of revenge in this game that may be more than reality.

In my books, this also goes back to week 5. In that week we also saw Saskatchewan -1 and they lost to Hamilton. If you’ll recall, I mentioned what happens when many bettors line up on the same side. I believe this number and that line to be important in how the books steer money.

I believe Winnipeg will start out strong but Saskatchewan will eventually pull it out, possibly in OT and have picked up Saskatchewan Roughriders -1 (-105) versus Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

While I am betting my prediction will end up the same as yesterday against the spread and moneyline, I am going against my 58 or 59 point prediction and have picked up Under 50.5 (-105) for Saskatchewan Roughriders vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

Interestingly, this total for these two closed at 50.5 last week. That game went Over, implying, in the give and take world of the markets, that I should pick the Under. Further, these two teams played twice, and it was the Over in each game. Those looking to break certain streaks seek not only Winnipeg this week, but also the Under. I think that Winnipeg will fail and that they may get the Under.

One risk I am taking here is in my assessment of the game. I believe Winnipeg will come out strong and Saskatchewan will win late…this could lead to an Over play.

This first game is sure to be an interesting game to watch. There is a lot pressure on Winnipeg to not only cover a spread, but to win a game and a team like Saskatchewan seems like a solid candidate.

Good Luck

[KVB]

I like the under in both games.
Bet them yesterday.
However the 1st game total has dropped 2 full points.

Taking the Under here in the first game. I see pressure coming since I bought, but haven't seen a two point drop in the line, yet.