CFL

[KVB]

Thats what I did. Did $40 on over, and $10 on Ottawa win.
Im not a big better, but expecting a win here!

Let's get this. Thanks for chiming in with the "on the ground" analysis. I've said before taking my market analysis adding your own analysis can either put you on or take you off of plays.

Sometimes, as information comes in, I get taken on and off of plays; like's tonight's Total.

[Ra77er]

Sas and Over is what I took at the buzzer. This is fun.

[KVB]

...OVER 50.5 (-108) for Ottawa Redblacks vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders...

It happened again, minutes after buying this play the line started moving up to 51 and even 51.5 in many places. Like I said, I may be ahead of the market here, but doesn't always mean profit. I'm thinking of getting Under 52...lol

Could KVB be moving markets?



Seriously as I write this I could go the other way with the Under.

The line movements have been a little wacky from the get go this week.

[Ra77er]

KVB do you really think 52 would be worth a look at the Under? 51 must be a key number in CFL.

[KVB]

KVB do you really think 52 would be worth a look at the Under? 51 must be a key number in CFL.

Holding here with the Over Ra77er, but I still think these lines and movements this week are wacky. I'm certainly not afraid to go for the middle, and key numbers may not even matter. It's all about the situations.

Is it you Ra77er? You reading my plays then stuffing the books worldwide?

Why I oughtta...

[Ra77er]

I just realized Sass is a super trap. No way they should be favored unless oddsmakers know something impossible to know. It has to be psychological line right?

Oh and KVB I will do my best to not max wager everything in bold.

[KVB]

I just realized Sass is a super trap. No way they should be favored unless oddsmakers know something impossible to know. It has to be psychological line right?

Oh and KVB I will do my best to not max wager everything in bold.

Seriously though, if it is Saskatchewan, it's probably not coming easy. Let's see some points!!

[KVB]

...Saskatchewan will have no problem settling for a win instead of a cover...

lol...Saskatchewan winning by 2 points right now. I know, or expect, there to be more scoring but lol nonetheless.

[Ra77er]

[Ra77er]

Great day of CFL KVB. Wacky lines indeed...frustrated at myself over the Sas pick.

[KVB]

For the swing game this week I have Montreal scoring 24 or 25 points to Winnipeg’s 13. The line opened with Montreal -10 and sits at 9.5 or 9 in most places. Once again the line offered is pretty close to my prediction and while I think the Montreal money line is going to pay, the spread can be tougher to determine.

Most models do show a lower scoring game with roughly 40 points and my 37 or 38 is no exception. It’s no surprise that this line opened the lowest of the four games at 42 and has made its way to 43.5. I have certain metrics indicating the Over in this game and, also at such a low line, I can see why there has been pressure upward.

My ratings show Winnipeg and Montreal about equal offensively while Montreal’s defense has been pretty solid of late and Winnipeg’s defense has sputtered. If Montreal’s offense improves at all this week, we could see more points, even with a Winnipeg defensive improvement.

I am considering the Over in this game but a 1.5 point move has been a little too much so far. By game time we may see this 43.5 drop back to 43, where I would expect it to rest. I would not expect to see the sudden game time moves that we saw on Saturday’s second game’s Total. Further, I did not seek the Over in this game earlier in the week when it was a better line because there wasn’t enough information for me to make that decision.

I will be watching this line closely and may strongly consider the Over if I see any movement off of 43.5 towards 43. This game starts with the batch of NFL early games, a market that should be buzzing in the morning and this could play a role in my market analysis and decision making process.

[icecapper]

Good to see Ottawa show up last night. Burris could be leading candidate for League MOP now with Collaros out for the season. Winnipeg +10 today.

[John Deere]

Winnipeg is a lock at +10. I'm from Montreal, and this game will be close. I am also putting a small bet on ML. Worth a shot at +415

[KVB]

...Most models do show a lower scoring game with roughly 40 points and my 37 or 38 is no exception. It’s no surprise that this line opened the lowest of the four games at 42 and has made its way to 43.5. I have certain metrics indicating the Over in this game and, also at such a low line, I can see why there has been pressure upward...

I am considering the Over in this game but a 1.5 point move has been a little too much so far. By game time we may see this 43.5 drop back to 43, where I would expect it to rest. I would not expect to see the sudden game time moves that we saw on Saturday’s second game’s Total. Further, I did not seek the Over in this game earlier in the week when it was a better line because there wasn’t enough information for me to make that decision.

I will be watching this line closely and may strongly consider the Over if I see any movement off of 43.5 towards 43. This game starts with the batch of NFL early games, a market that should be buzzing in the morning and this could play a role in my market analysis and decision making process...

This line did hit 43 through the night at several places. I decided to pass then, and again very early this morning...I passed again. The line has since shot upward and now is showing 44.5 in many places.

I'm passing on both the side and the Total for today's games. I know some of you like Winnipeg today but the market just doesn't offer enough evidence for me.

Good Luck today.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Alright, I'm probably wrong here, but the total just went to 45. I'm taking the under. Go defense!

[KVB]

Alright, I'm probably wrong here, but the total just went to 45. I'm taking the under. Go defense!

From a market perspective, this has all the makings of a 43 or 44 point game. I like your play.

[HeeluvaGuy]

From a market perspective, this has all the makings of a 43 or 44 point game. I like your play.

Looks like the punt return TD before the half put a dagger in the under. Not a bad week for my raw numbers, just a bad job of picking plays by me... Here's where the numbers stand after this week:

		Sides		Totals
		W	L	W	L
Week 5		3	1	1	3
Week 6		4	0	1	3
Week 7		2	2	2	2
Week 8		1	3	3	1
Week 9		1	3	2	2
Week 10		1	3	3	1
Week 11		2	2	3	1
Week 12		3	1	2	2
Week 13		3	1	2	2
Totals		20	16	19	17

[HeeluvaGuy]

Here's what I have for this week:

		Side		Total
Winnipeg		5.9		43.2
Edmonton		-20.1		48.3
Ottawa		-1.3		49.7
Saskatchewan		9.9		52.1

[KVB]

For the first game this week I have Calgary scoring 34 or 36 points to Winnipeg’s 8 points. Interestingly and something to note, this matches the 36-8 score between these two teams the last time they played on August 29^th, also in Winnipeg. Many models do have this game a bit closer than my prediction with Calgary winning by 6 to 8 points and totals closer to 47.

The line opened early a little higher than those models at Calgary -8.5 and has since moved towards my prediction settling at 9 to 9.5 around the world. The Total opened at 48, ticked up slightly but came right back down to 48.

I would expect to see some downward pressure on this 48 line. I can recognize some groups looking for the Over here, but almost everyone is either in a range to pass or looking at the Under. I would have expected this line to drop below 48 and we haven’t really seen that. I do know some houses are looking at 47.5 and I can see why, but the world seems to be a little “stuck” on 48.

I mentioned many forecasts approaching 47 and as the line gets closer to 47 those Under bettors may begin to back out of the market, perhaps this is why the books have held at 48. Last week we saw some drastic late Total moves, we may see some to start out this week.

It is my belief that some of those bettors seeking the Over in this game have been trapped lately by the books and may get paid on this first game. While the market hasn’t really showed it, I believe there is pressure on the Under and many of those bettors have seen recent success. We’ve seen what can happen in this give and take world of sports markets and with my prediction being identical to the score of the last game, and an “extreme” single digit score being involved, I can see more points playing out on the field.

Last week my predictions called for the Under in all four games; three of those games went Over. Along with the identified pressures above, I have metrics indicating that trend continues into this game and have picked up the OVER 48 (-105) for Calgary Stampeders vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

As far as the pointspread is concerned, I believe the line to be fairly sharp sitting around 9 and 9.5 and would expect to see it close at 9.5 or even 10. At this level, with the information I have, I am going to pass for now.

Good Luck.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I have some conflict in my numbers for tonight's game too so I'm passing. GL guys!

[KVB]

I have some conflict in my numbers for tonight's game too so I'm passing. GL guys!

Curious to hear your thoughts Guy if you have time.

Even though we are different on the spread, I predicted a 42 or 44 point game and your raw total is 43.2.

I think that there are some recent strength of schedule issues that may be built in to confuse just about everyone a bit. I think this could a particularly tough week to navigate. I don't know, may need the books to tip their hand a little bit.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I don't think I'll be able to get to my stuff before game time, so I won't be able to explain using details until later. But basically, my method involves generating lines that include whole season, home/away, and recency components. I do this using two different sets of numbers, so I end up with 6 lines that I then weigh to reach my final numbers. In a perfect world I have agreement on all component parts in direction, if not degree. But for this game I had a few lines that differed on direction. In other words, I had a few components suggesting the over and several heavily weighing the under. Without time to sort through stuff, that's not a game I want in on.

I'll try to post specifics later. GL!

[Hngkng]

For me I am laying the points. Calgary -9.5

[KVB]

I don't think I'll be able to get to my stuff before game time, so I won't be able to explain using details until later. But basically, my method involves generating lines that include whole season, home/away, and recency components. I do this using two different sets of numbers, so I end up with 6 lines that I then weigh to reach my final numbers. In a perfect world I have agreement on all component parts in direction, if not degree. But for this game I had a few lines that differed on direction. In other words, I had a few components suggesting the over and several heavily weighing the under. Without time to sort through stuff, that's not a game I want in on.

I'll try to post specifics later. GL!

Makes sense, no need for more specifics. I figure these next couple of weeks to be a little screwy and part of it is exactly what you are describing. I'm thinking it's recent performance combined with the recent schedule strengths. We have some repeats and some matchups getting into their third time around.

While I mentioned before that SOS may not matter too much in this "round robin" league, we may go through a small phase where it affects some bettors and thus the markets.

I'm not sure if that makes sense, but it seems to happen in almost all the markets as the season progresses. We are sure to see it in the NFL too as that season progresses.

It will be interesting to see how the predictions here do against lines, regardless of the bets.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Ah KVB we meet up on the college board...

My far too early to be useful total for this one is 44.8. For the late game I'm at 35.5. Still need a couple of weeks before I'll use these, but I may play the late one for grins.

Oops. Wrong thread. Lol

[KVB]

lol Guy, I saw that in the other thread. Still trying to get those college football bearings. The markets are huge.

For the CFL we are seeing the pressure on the Under I was expecting. I see 47.5 in many places.



Ra77er, check in pal.

[Hngkng]

Interesting how Winnipeg has 9 LBs on their roster, and only 1 backup WR for tonight.

[Booya711]

I'm taking the Jets +5.5 for the first half

[KVB]

I'm taking the Jets +5.5 for the first half

lol... you playing hockey here Booya?

Winnipeg points are good for both of us.

[Booya711]

lol... you playing hockey here Booya?

Winnipeg points are good for both of us.

Unreal...I meant blue bombers

[Booya711]

Whatever the team name I will take the win!

[KVB]

Whatever the team name I will take the win!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Now that the sister kissing is over, what do we say about tomorrow? Edmonton minus the points and the team total over 28.5 both look strong by my numbers. But we all know that's only part of the picture...

[Booya711]

We both winners KVB!

[KVB]

Of the 59 individual issues I’ve posted in bold, not every bold play, but the first entry point for each play, 2 of them have been ties.

The second play of the thread was BC -3, it pushed. The line was 3.5 so getting the better line helped for the favorite bettors.

Tonight I bought Over 48 and it too pushed. This line dropped, as expected, to 47.5, which paid. For the first time in 10 weeks not getting the best number has made a difference. If you tailed, I hope you picked up 47.5. It’s interesting to see the effects of a team getting one point for missing a field goal.

The game in week three before the BC game mentioned above was also a 3.5 line that closed at 2 and it ended a 2 point game. I had no play for that game.

These are the only three instances in all 53 games of CFL this season that a final score has pushed either the opening or closing lines; counting both sides and totals, not counting 2^nd half lines. Things are getting a bit tighter; we just might see a few more instances before this year is complete.




EDIT: In the BC vs. Calgary game on Friday Sept. 18th Calgary won by 12 points, pushing the opening line and covering the 11.5 closer. That's 4 cases this year.