CFL

[KVB]

Ra77er?

[KVB]

Now that the sister kissing is over, what do we say about tomorrow? Edmonton minus the points and the team total over 28.5 both look strong by my numbers. But we all know that's only part of the picture...

Let me gather the metrics and write some reasons but I have Edmonton scoring 27 points. I know many have at least 30 and some more, and by your side and Total forecasts your looking at about 34 for Edmonton. Enough to go Over the team total?

I'm not sure, BC did beat these guys in early August and I while Edmonton could cover, this game could go Under as a whole.

I'll check back in with more in a bit.

[KVB]

For the first game Saturday I have a prediction of Edmonton scoring 27 points to British Colombia’s 10 points. Like I said before, many models have Edmonton scoring up to and over 30 points and most have Edmonton winning big. The line opened with Edmonton -10.5 and has moved upward to the models to -11 and -11.5 with some houses hitting 12.

Just like the first game this week, both the side and total have moved towards my prediction as the total opened at 47.5 and has dropped steadily to 46. This isn’t surprising and I believe, based on certain metrics that the money pushing this line to 46 has a good chance to get paid.

The last time these two teams played in BC I had a very similar forecast of 31-33 to 10 in favor of Edmonton. BC won the game 26 to 23 taking it Over the posted spread. That spread also opened 47.5 and also dropped to 46.5.

In that game my predictions failed against the markets: spread, moneyline, and total. With the give and take of the markets I would expect that condition to be different today.

While I expect Edmonton to win the game, I think it could come down to whether or not they cover the spread. With the information I have, I feel this is too close to call at this time. My initial lean is to look for Edmonton to cover the spread but won’t bet it now as I think we can gain more information by waiting, even if it means until halftime.

I realize this is the first game of the day and it can be both misleading and riskier; as it starts the flow of money for the day. I also realize I’m not getting the best number but like the price when I pick up UNDER 46 (-103) for British Colombia Lions vs. Edmonton Eskimos.

One more thing concerning bettor psychology, bettors seeking the Under in the first game this week learned a tough lesson when they bought Under 47.5. This can have an immediate effect on some bettors. They may be reluctant to enter the market for an Under when “the value has gone away.”

From this perspective, passing on the side and picking up the total in this game is behavior similar to the equity markets, where bettors can find success when buying while investors are fearful and passing, or selling, when investors are greedy.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

For the late game on Saturday I have Ottawa winning with over 40 points to Toronto’s 17. It seems most forecasts also have Ottawa winning but by far less with more like a one score game. The line opened with Ottawa -2.5, has seen little movement, and stayed there worldwide. Likewise, the Total opened at 52.5, and has seen little movement.

Many models have the Total for this game around the opening line, above and below by a couple of points. My prediction calls for a much higher scoring game and while I can see some pressure on the Under, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that high 52.5 line move to 53.

Of course, we may see money move on this one way or the other as the result of the first game. Both the Total and the side have been so quiet it is as if they are waiting for this first game to go off.

For the third game in a row my predicted score indicates a blowout for the favorite, and this is the largest of the three. I have only had two other 40+ Team Total predictions this season, both of them involving Hamilton beating and covering the spread over Toronto, which was the result on the field.

Knowing the give and take nature of the markets, and anyone following this thread might see this as a case for Toronto to succeed, a sort of streak breaking play.

An obvious look at the teams shows us there once again is an elephant in the in terms of some other streaks to be broken (or not) with this game. Ottawa has won three games in a row and covered four spreads. On the other side, Toronto has lost three games and failed to cover four spreads. The streak breaking bettor would point towards Toronto either to finally win or at least cover the spread.

In fact, some of these types of unsophisticated bettors have been successful in these situations this season. In fact, some of those situations involved Ottawa. It seems every season many of these bettors give back these winnings and then some.

Well this is the second half of the season and things that worked before tend to fail and vice versa; and, as I mentioned before, we seem to be in a natural oddball couple of weeks with markets.

It seems the books could be taking a position in this game while also trying to limit what they can from some action. The lack of line movement in this environment would be evidence of such a play by the books. It is my belief that the more unsophisticated public will be on Toronto while some of the sharper, larger bets would go to Ottawa.

Though we haven’t seen the first game Saturday, which could provide evidence of moneyflow, I am going to start what appears to be a contrarian position (it may depend on your viewpoint) by picking up Ottawa Redblacks -2.5 (-106) over Toronto Argonauts.

Some bettors may struggle here with the “due factors” involved in this play and they would be right. I suppose one could find comfort in the fact that this play agrees with posted forecasts that have been 30-13 against the spread from weeks 3 through 13 of this season.

Good Luck.

[icecapper]

I'm on Ottawa as well, fishy line but we'll roll with it.

[Booya711]

GL peeps...I'm on Edmonton 1st H and the Argonauts today

[Hngkng]

For Ottawa game, I am with Ottawa.
I think I might take over in that game too.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Edmonton -11 for me. Go Oilers!

[KVB]

Looks like we're seeing some of that pressure on Toronto as the line has fallen in some places. The Ottawa moneyline is looking better and better but we still have plenty of time and plenty of information before needing to pull that trigger.

Good Luck guys.

[KVB]

Edmonton -11 for me. Go Oilers!

This is very close to being a play for me but something just seems off today. Can we get Edmonton AND Ottawa?

This will be interesting to watch.

[KVB]

I just pick up UNDER 46.5 (-107) for British Colombia Lions vs. Edmonton Eskimos.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

As we've gotten closer to game one today we have seen more movement on game two, towards Toronto. I jumped in with a very late total shift upward to 46.5 on the first game.

I feel I either have this day right, or flat our wrong.

[KVB]

I just pick up UNDER 46.5 (-107) for British Colombia Lions vs. Edmonton Eskimos.

Good Luck.

There is a typo here. The price was (-101) not (-107). The book was Heritage.

[HeeluvaGuy]

If I didn't know better I'd say Edmonton is throwing this one. Yikes they look like crap.

[KVB]

The game is showing BC and Under but is likely to be misleading. I figure at least one of those will fall. Could be Edmonton, could go over, or both.

[KVB]

...Many models have the Total for this game around the opening line, above and below by a couple of points. My prediction calls for a much higher scoring game and while I can see some pressure on the Under, I wouldn’t be surprised to see that high 52.5 line move to 53...

I mentioned earlier in the thread, seems like long ago, that my predictions would maintain a level of “sharpness” and that many static models would have trouble keeping up.

This is could be evidence as the total for the Toronto vs. Ottawa has traded through under pressure and now sits at 53 and even 53.5 around the world.

While my predictions have gone 30-13 against the spread with any discrepancy, they have gone, with any discrepancy, 19-22 against the offered totals.

Incidentally, against the moneyline, those same predictions have gone 25-19.

[KVB]

A 22 point game at half and the halftime total is 24. We get the same bet again.



It looks like the most movement was on Edmonton, the line moved from 8 to as much as 9.5.

No halftime play here.

[KVB]

I’ve just added Ottawa Redblacks -120 over Toronto Argonauts.

Good Luck.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Wow. What a shitty game.

[KVB]

I have added Ottawa Redblacks -2 (-105) over Toronto Argonauts.

Good Luck.

[Booya711]

I have Toronto ML...fukk it +110

[KVB]

...I feel I either have this day right, or flat our wrong...

I added another Ottawa position, let's hope I'm not completely wrong.

[KVB]

I have Toronto ML...fukk it +110

Fast start for Toronto. But I think we have a game.

[Booya711]

Fast start for Toronto. But I think we have a game.

Everyone betting Ottawa but the line never changed off -2...I had to take Toronto

[KVB]

My metrics indicate the line of Ottawa -5 for the second half is a buy and I picked up Ottawa Redblacks -4 (-120) 2^nd half over Toronto Argonauts.

This could be a tough day today, I may have had both games wrong.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

I have Toronto ML...fukk it +110

[KVB]

...as I mentioned before, we seem to be in a natural oddball couple of weeks with markets...

...Some bettors may struggle here with the “due factors” involved in this play and they would be right. I suppose one could find comfort in the fact that this play agrees with posted forecasts that have been 30-13 against the spread from weeks 3 through 13 of this season...

So far in week 14 my predictions are 0-3 against the spread.

So far this year, this is the first time my posted forecasts have lost 3 games in any week.

[KVB]

For the final game this week I have Montreal scoring 24 points to Saskatchewan’s 13. Most models have Montreal winning this game; many of those have a closer game. The line opened as a pick ‘em and moved towards the forecasts to Montreal -1.5. I can see quite a bit of pressure on Montreal here and would expect this line to press towards -2 as we approach game time.

While I have a Total of 37 points others score this game higher, from the mid 40’s to Over 50. The early open was 51 points and has been picked up around the world from 50.5 to 49.5 on its way to 49. Again, not surprisingly, the Total has moved toward my prediction. While there could be more pressure on the Under, I feel this line is very close to a settling point at 49.

Once again I have a virtual repeat predicted score of Montreal’s game last week against Winnipeg. In that game the prediction was successful against the moneyline and spread but failed against the Total as Montreal covered in an Over. While the market does tend towards a give and take in these situations (for example Toronto on Saturday and games with 40+ predictions), this is the swing game and I have other metrics indicating Montreal will be involved in a similar result to last week.

Both the side and the Total this week have pressure coming from both directions and the books are probably pleased with the action they are getting. Often I pass when the books seem like they are getting great volume as those games, in this position, can both wind up the flow for this week and start the flow of money for next week.

Other metrics indicate a play here and because of this characteristic regarding the flow of money a loss in a play in this game could likely represent an opportunity at a later date. As such, I have gone ahead and picked up Montreal Alouettes -120 vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders.

We are in a similar situation with the Totals regarding the flow of money and, keeping with my metrics indicating a similar result to Montreal’s game last week, I have picked up OVER 49 (-104) for Montreal Alouettes vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders.

Good Luck.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Well KVB, for better or worse, we're basically together on this one today. I'm playing:

MTL -1.5
o49

I've only had one sub .500 week since posting my numbers here (Week 9). Right now my sides are 2-1 and my totals are 1-1-1. Let's see what today brings...

GL to all!

(As an aside, I'm out of pocket all afternoon and evening. I'll try to keep tabs on this, but may not be able to fully take it in until Monday.)

[KVB]

Montreal hitting -2.5 around the world while the Total is hitting 50.

Once again, ahead of the lines but that hasn't always meant success.

[Booya711]

GL everyone...I am rolling with Montreal 1st H -1

[Jayvegas420]

Booyer, you gonna hit that fly me contest anytime soon or are you trying to lull us all into a false sense of security?

[Booya711]

Booyer, you gonna hit that fly me contest anytime soon or are you trying to lull us all into a false sense of security?

I keep forgetting about it Jay plus it's been a crazy last 4-5 weeks

[HeeluvaGuy]

Updated numbers:

		Sides		Totals
		W	L	W	L
Week 5		3	1	1	3
Week 6		4	0	1	3
Week 7		2	2	2	2
Week 8		1	3	3	1
Week 9		1	3	2	2
Week 10		1	3	3	1
Week 11		2	2	3	1
Week 12		3	1	2	2
Week 13		3	1	2	2
Week 14*		2	2	2	1
Totals		22	18	21	18
*One total play pushed

[HeeluvaGuy]

Here are my lines for this week:

		Side		Total
Ottawa		-10		50.7
Hamilton		-22.9		53.6
Winnipeg		7.9		42
BC		-11.1		53.2

GL everyone!