CFL kicking my butt, tapping out to focus on Draftkings and the Oilers. Good luck the rest of the way gents. 
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Sorry Ra77er to drag you into some of these market movements plays. We should know better by now when I initially call a game pass...lol.
We haven't had a good downturn all season and the market was bound to get tough. I may be pulling the trigger just a few too many times over the last two weeks, getting a little ambitious and a little less patient.
Further, as the NFL has broadened the overall market base, there needs to be better adjustment to those incoming bettors. I'm not sure I've done a good job of that as I have had some early season success in the NFL and allowed the CFL to get some back.
Doesn't that sound a bit like how the books operate in a world of give and take? The adjustment in this market is to pass when indicated and leave those market shifts alone...something I haven't been doing.
As far as tonight's game goes, a touchdown in the end would have been a back door cover. I want to mention again how the markets do play out to an audience and had there been a touchdown in the end, the game would have fallen very close to my predicted score.
I felt this was a sharper line as the markets closed on it and we can see in the way it played out on the field that it was not a simple issue to settle.
From a market analysis perspective and a perspective of this thread this game should have been a pass and the line movements of the last few days that have turned me on to plays should not be forgotten. Not only can we learn from mistakes like this, but these movements will come again, in bigger moments, in the coming weeks.
I am confident some of these losses can be recuperated, especially during the playoffs, and we will be very glad there was such early season success.
For now, it may be best not to have too many plays and let the better plays come to us. It's something to keep in mind.
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For the first game Saturday I have a predicted score of Edmonton’s 23 points beating Calgary’s 17 or 19 points. Once again I differ from nearly most forecasts that have Calgary winning this game by basically 5 points. Not surprisingly, this line has opened with Calgary -4.5 points and has traded toward my line to -3.5. After reviewing the marketplace, I am further not surprised and should have picked this line up after Tuesday’s result.
Recently, when my predicted score has the offered underdog winning, it hasn’t done well. In fact, that predicted underdog hasn’t had an upset win since the end of July. There haven’t been too many occurrences until more recent weeks and they have all failed. This recent activity combined with other metrics point towards this underdog both covering the spread and possibly winning the game.
In line with my predicted score I have picked up Edmonton Eskimos +160 and +3.5 (-104) over Calgary Stampeders. Let’s hope we can avoid the 4 point Calgary victory. These markets are tight in any direction and we could be looking at a turn in the markets…which is often murky with things like middles. It will be interesting to see if this line can fall further than -3.5 given the support with Calgary at a 5 or 6 point win.
Eventually, sooner or later, not getting the best line is going to bite us. Let’s see if this is it.
Good Luck
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My predicted score of Edmonton’s 23 points to Calgary’s 17 or 19 points is in line with many forecasts. There is a range among models, however, as some have a much higher scoring game. The Total opened at 47.5 and has traded lower to 46.5. I am inclined to pass on this play. Those who seek an Over play on this game have indeed lost some similar Total bets recently. The market could be in a skid, but I would be careful here. These bettors won’t go too long without a payout.
This is another line that will be interesting to watch and I could see dropping further. I do lean towards the Under play here but advise passing as the Total in the second game seems to be the product of bookmaking techniques that may lead to some drama.
I have written about that game and have already picked up the Under 50.5 in anticipation of downward pressure. The line for game two now trades at 50 and even 49.5 in some places.
Here we go again with getting ahead of the markets and anticipating line moves, let’s see if we can turn it into profit Saturday.
I will pass on the Total for this first game and stick with my underdog play posted above.
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The last time these two teams played Winnipeg beat BC 23-12 in Winnipeg. In that game I had BC winning by 2 or 3 points. For my prediction, the moneyline failed but Winnipeg covered the spread while winning the game.
Like the first game Saturday, this second game also presents my prediction of an underdog winning. In the game on Monday, to close out the week, I also have the posted Underdog, Toronto, beating Montreal by 6 or 7 points.
So my predictions on the three remaining games this week are all upset winners. I’ve talked about the murkiness of a market turn and going forward this week, obviously, it is unlikely that all of these games are upsets. Of course, it is possible none of them are.
I have already played the first game with Edmonton +160. In a situation like this, buying that first game doesn’t exhibit a lot of patience and we could see a late Calgary win or cover before we move on to game two. This seems like a spot to lose before getting the upset the market may be looking for.
Winnipeg beating BC for a second time would not surprise me but for now I’ll pass on the side and moneyline for game two Saturday and stick with my Under 50.5 play.
I’ve written these games now as I will be out of town early Saturday but should be back in time to possibly react to game two. Unfortunately, I won’t be around for halftime of game one, a critical point to be paying attention.
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Jumping in here at the half with UNDER 25 (-110) 2nd half for Winnipeg Blue Bombers versus British Colombia Lions.
For the purposes of this thread my metrics indicate a buy here.
Good Luck.
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It looks like a turn in the markets as my prediction has done well against the moneyline three games in a row.
For the game on Monday Toronto was an early line underdog but jumped to 2.5 point favorite over Montreal.
It looks like we may have squeezed all we will out of the moneylines this week but the Totals are a different story.
The Total markets are still in a bit of a shakeout but hitting the 2nd half bet tonight was a promising sign.
With tonight’s 2nd half result I have already picked up UNDER 52.5 (-105) for Toronto Argonauts versus Montreal Alouettes.
I like the price here and the number. It is my belief the Total markets will follow suit in a market turn as certain groups of bettors look to recover from recent slides.
Concerning the Totals, I am becoming one of those bettors.
Good Luck.
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I mentioned above that I had Toronto winning Monday’s game by 6 or 7 points. My predicted score has Toronto’s 33 or 34 points beating Montreal’s 27 or 28 points. It seems that many have Montreal to win this game by about 4 points which could explain the early line of Montreal -3.5, which, by the time the world picked it up, was Toronto -2.5.
The early Total was 45 but adjusted to 52 with the -2.5. The books appear to have split the money here amongst forecasts. While I’m looking at more than 60 points in my prediction, most are around the spread of 52, give or take a couple of points.
Methods that reach conclusions of a lower scoring game (low 40’s), and they are in the minority in this game, have seen recent market troubles. Considering the nature of these give and take markets, my metrics indicate the books are happy to take whatever Over money they can here and books like Pinny may even be protecting themselves slightly.
While the Total markets could slide a bit further and these two teams will meet for the second time in just a couple of weeks, I think it is time to anticipate the turn and enter this market at a second price point of UNDER 52.5 (-106) for Toronto Argonauts versus Montreal Alouettes as I build a position now for Monday.
Good Luck.
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My updated numbers for today's game are:
MTL 14.0 and 57.9
My sides are 1-3 this week and my totals are 3-1. I think my side is wrong again. I'm taking MTL +120.
GL everyone!Comment -
Happy Thanksgiving Canadians. I bought several more plays for today's under and meant to post more with prices, including an even money bet, but I didn't realize it went off. I had 1:00 Pacific time down.
That line held steady at 52.5 was a solid Under. At least there were two buys here.
I forgot this game started so early, it's already over. With the Toronto win my forecasts went 4-1 against the moneyline and 3-1 against the spread. The loss came on Tuesday's game to open the week.
These are indications that the markets have turned and, with the exceptions of a few "traps" that we should be able to identify, the markets should undergo a bit of back and forth style give and take over a couple of weeks before we see indications and behavior that the playoffs are around the corner.
In other words, a team or two will make a run while the rest give and take.
Not sure if that makes sense to anyone who hasn't been around all season, but I'm pressed for time.
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I posed this earlier in a bit of a rush but wanted to elaborate. My numbers predicted only three upsets this week. Jacksonville over Tampa, which lost, Cleveland over Baltimore and Chicago over KC both won.
It’s the winning plays I want to focus on. It’s late so I have to be brief. Each of them is from a division being represented in the Monday night game. When analyzing the markets it can be helpful to break games down among home, away, by conference, and by division.
In this give and take world of sports betting, and particularly in the NFL markets, getting that extra upset in these divisions can be difficult to do. I don’t think buying Pittsburgh to win this game is a very good idea.
Of course, the books know sharp bettors follow the flow of money. It can sometimes benefit the book to carry one population of bettors for a while and then do the same with the next population. It doesn’t always have to turn right away. This is why patience and proper discipline with money are so important in the NFL.
For tonight, however, my metrics indicate this upset will be difficult to pull off. A moneyline play on San Diego is probably the winning bet but by closing time will simply cost too much.
This isn’t an NFL thread, it’s the CFL thread, but if it were an NFL thread for the long haul, like early in this thread, I would recommend buying to a certain price. In this case San Diego -190 or -200 would be just out of range of a buy. The market will likely settle there.
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Sides Totals W L W L Week 5 3 1 1 3 Week 6 4 0 1 3 Week 7 2 2 2 2 Week 8 1 3 3 1 Week 9 1 3 2 2 Week 10 1 3 3 1 Week 11 2 2 3 1 Week 12 3 1 2 2 Week 13 3 1 2 2 Week 14* 2 2 2 1 Week 15 2 2 2 2 Week 16 2 3 3 2 Totals 26 23 26 22 *One total play pushed Comment -
Here's what I have for this week. I'm not going to be posting plays anymore because I can't seem to win the ones I post. But I'll keep posting my numbers through the rest of the season:
Side Total Ottawa -10.5 58.6 Toronto 0.1 53.3 Edmonton -11.6 50.9 Montreal 8.5 47.6 52.6 Comment -
For tonight's Winnipeg vs Ottawa game I am liking Ottawa -4.0, and OverComment -
For tonight’s game I have a predicted score of Ottawa winning with 31 or 33 points over Winnipeg’s 27 or 28 points. Nearly every forecast has Ottawa winning this game by 6 to 10 points but the Totals vary drastically. I can create lines from 43 to as high as my predicted score, with many in the 50’s. The spread opened with Ottawa -4 and has ticked upward with 5’s showing in some places. The Total opened at 51.5 and has also ticked upward.
My predictions seem pretty sharp here. I figure a 3 to 6 point game and we see the line at 4.5 most of the time, as late money may drive it to 5. The Total opened fairly high and has also moved upward. Some metrics indicate Ottawa to win this game and I suspect they may cover the spread but there isn’t enough here to bet. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Total ended Under tonight but again no bet.
This is the first game this week and these two teams, who haven’t met all season, meet again next week. Many indications of a pass here as we can learn a lot more about the flow of money both for this week and next by watching and waiting.
The line movements in this game do not surprise me and the only tempting bet would be an Under play as that line moves upward towards 53. We’ve seen what kind of trouble those types of reactions have recently caused in this thread.
Winnipeg, who scored 29 points in the upset last week while I had a 27 point prediction for them, may falter this week against the 23.5 point team total as I predict a slightly higher 27 or 28 point score for them.
Should we see a Winnipeg Team Total of 24, it might be worth the play. At the moment I think it’s best to make a mental bet and continue to pay attention to the predicted scores of individual teams. We may seem some give and take here.
If it remains a pass and Winnipeg goes over that team total, we may have some market direction to follow. If Winnipeg should go Under that total tonight, we may have missed a winning bet, again. If so, there will still be give and take, but the “patience factor” will likely have to reset.
I’m not sure if that makes total sense if you weren’t around earlier in the thread when we capitalized on these opportunities but it is a reminder that it’s good to monitor the give and take even at the Team Total level.
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It seems like, in most sports, things get real hairy in about the third quarter of the season, and this season no different. We all posted some losers, and our numbers have us second guessing.
Instead of win some, lose some, we get streaks. In weeks 14 and 15 my forecasts were 1-7 against the spread, started week 16 a loss, then hit 3 in row, two of them decent upsets.
It's a wild time.
And of course it seems like posting plays is an automatic killer sometimes...I think we've all been there too.
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lol...I see Ottawa's team total ticking upward with the game spread, from 28.5 to 29, but the keep Winnipeg at 23.5.
The number 24 can be a very important one when it comes to team scores; it is the same with the NFL.Comment -
Well it's 10-0 Ottawa. Halftime line of 26 seems like a sucker bet one way or the other lol. I'd like to take the Under here in the rain, and probably should, but that's when we find ourselves with a 17-17 tie.
I was looking at Ottawa +103 and it just shifted to -125. The line went from Ottawa +1/2 to -1/2.
I wouldn't be surprised if the 2nd half ends a tie with Ottawa winning the game by 10. I would not take Ottawa -1/2.
Edit...oops, I guess it was 16-0. So if it were a tie at half it would still be a 16 point game, not 10. I still probably wouldn't take Ottawa -1/2...seems risky.Last edited by KVB; 10-16-15, 08:13 PM.Comment -
You're right about the last 1/4 of the season breaking down. The reason I'm not posting specific plays (even thought the jinx may be real lol) is that I don't think I am helping anyone with those. You're doing a fine job with that. My numbers, on the other hand, are still profitable and may be of use to someone somewhere...
GL today! ~Comment -
Talk about playing to an audience; I may once again be on the right track with this week’s analysis. Winnipeg scored a touchdown with 9 seconds left for a back door cover of the spread and to reach a Team Total of 24; the game remained Under.
Of course the game went Under when I passed.
Winnipeg going Over 23.5 may have opened up opportunity for us here; it’s time to find it.
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For the first game today I have Calgary with 27 or 28 points to Toronto’s 27 points. My forecast gives the slight edge and moneyline win to Calgary. Most forecasts are close here, especially with the Total. While some have Toronto winning by a couple or even Calgary by more than 10, nearly everyone has a 53 to 55 point Total prediction.
We’ve seen this line open with Toronto -1 and it has shifted to a pick ‘em and back again. The Total opened with 51 and has ticked slightly upwards to 51.5, toward the forecasts.
Given the streakiness we’ve seen in the results when you compare my predictions to the offered moneyline, this game warrants a pass on the side or moneyline here. I can see, from certain metrics, some pressure on Calgary and they did win the earlier matchup this season; but that was a long time ago. The pressure I see seems to explain the moves towards Calgary.
Too many of us are in basic agreement with the Total and, while once again I can see an Under here, I am once again going to pass.
In terms of individual Team Totals the focus is a bit more on Calgary. The offered Total is 26 and it will be interesting to see if they can bounce back from the 11 point game last week against Edmonton.
From Toronto’s perspective they just won two games last week in a unique holiday situation, and one of those games was a pick ‘em against Ottawa. Toronto has paid their bettors well of late and the market will likely react the other way.
That’s more pressure on Calgary from some groups; it will be interesting to see if they become a favorite by game time. We are starting to see some money flow and I think it’s best to be patient here and let the play come to us.
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As I look closer at metrics regarding the Totals there is evidence that we could see a slide in my predictions performing against the line. While the moneyline and spread forecasts have undergone streaks requiring patience, the Total predictions have remained about 50-50.
Further, while other metrics of the total markets have also undergone severe streaks, again my predictions have remained about 50-50.
My predictions against the Totals are essentially due for a streak of their own. They have failed against the posted Totals 3 times in a row and could be due for more consecutive failure. That means the first game today could go Under.
Is the size of streak enough reason to bet? It shouldn’t be. While a “due factor” can be large, there should always be more confirming edges as the markets can get very streaky.
There is no doubt that streak riders and streak breakers tend to chase their bets and trying to time the markets in this fashion can sometimes have no more validity than a simple chase.
This isn’t going to put me onto a bet but it will be interesting to see how my predictions perform against the posted Totals in the near term. If they begin to slide further, it will be predicted and tells us we understand what part of the markets are doing and will likely lead us to good bets in the future.
I write this in part to shed some light on even more factors that can and should be considered when tracking your plays. I have said over and over that tracking your plays and why you made them can be the most important piece of information you process. Your record and why you placed those bets is unique information. No one else has this information…not even the most advanced syndicates and wise guys.
Of course, when you understand the many ways bettors operate, and how the markets play into that, you can begin to track how others do, clump them into groups, and then watch the performance. This what many of us mean when we say “follow the money.”
I know many throw around words like “value” and “follow the money” without really knowing what they mean. For example, most on SBR perceive value but have no real number or line to measure that value. When the line moves, they think they lost value, but don’t really know; they may have even gained value.
Likewise, following the money can be a complex issue requiring a great deal of real life experience with the markets. The purpose of this thread has been in part to teach some of those principles of market analysis and help us earn while we learn.
I hope I’ve accomplished some of that here.
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Ok guys, so I didn't put it in bold but I went ahead and put a little slush money on the Under for the first game. I got 51.5 (-105).
If this wins I may further divide the bankroll on a special Total Slide set of bets.
Technically, this is the first bet of that side fund but of course it won't count for the thread. It's another strategy I was hoping to show during this season, but I probably already let the best opportunities pass us by as I tried to stay focused and not steer the thread wrong.
Maybe it will work here at the end of the season. Essentially, for some plays there will be a different style of write up. It will pertain to a different focus and may or may not agree with other market analysis.
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For the second game today I have a predicted score of Edmonton’s 27 or 28 points to British Colombia’s 19 or 20 points. It seems most forecasts have Edmonton winning by anywhere from 6 points to over 10 points. My prediction is right in the middle and the line opened with Edmonton favored by 8 points. The line has grown to 9 in many places.
While I have 46, 47 or 48 points being scored here, the line opened at 47.5 and hasn’t moved. Most predictions look for more like a 44 point game and those looking for Edmonton to win by 10 or more are generally looking for a 50 point or so game (similar to HeeluvaGuy’s numbers above).
My forecast seems pretty sharp here but if the first game today does remain under the spread I would likely counter my Total again with an Over bet. That could be a part of a side fund but it may be a bit late in this season to worry about a divided bankroll.
As far as the side goes, it seems the books want folks to pass on the side in this game. If Calgary does indeed beat Toronto it may be a good idea to pick up the upset in this game. The odds here would be pretty nice at near +350 and a loss could lead to a play down the road.
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I wanted to add that some forecasts indicate an Edmonton blowout but also a low scoring game, again in the neighborhood of 44 points.
I believe there is pressure on the Under play that the markets aren’t exactly showing. It will be interesting to see if the line finally budges from 47.5 as this first game unfolds.
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For Sunday’s game I have Hamilton winning with 27 or 28 points over Montreal’s 17 points. Other forecasts have Hamilton winning by anywhere from 6 to 18 points. Despite the fact that Montreal has beaten Hamilton in the previous two meetings, it seems the opening line of Hamilton -3 appears a bit low.
Some forecasts show a high scoring game but most seem to be just under the opening Total line of 47 points. I would not be surprised to see some pressure on the Under here. My Total prediction seems to be in line with the market and would appear to be a pass.
This is the swing game and, of course, there is quite a bit of information to be processed before a decision needs to be made here.
I’m posting about this game so early because the markets may be getting ready for an upset and the upset buy with BC for game two on Saturday could be a loser in preparation for a Montreal upset Sunday.
The nature of the BC vs. Edmonton game could shed some light on this issue. Should we see an Edmonton blow out, I would be looking at Montreal to win; provided other metrics align with the play.
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I suppose you knew it was coming. I have picked up British Colombia Lions +348 over Edmonton Eskimos.
Like I said, a loss here would likely lead to an opportunity in the near term. I do not see safety in taking the points as a loss here could easily be a blow out. From a market perspective, this is about the upset or not the upset and this number is sufficiently high to buy.
Further, I have picked up OVER 47.5 (+100) for British Colombia Lions versus Edmonton Eskimos.
Good Luck.
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Calgary scored 27 points and was able to withstand the pressure from bettors while Toronto failed with only 15. It could be that our Team Total angle of give and take may have already paid out here with Calgary.
Sometimes having patience means we are in danger of letting winners go by. In general, the first game of the day can have more risk, but sometimes its a risk work taking.
This is all a part of the give and take and in the end may work itself out, as long as there is discipline in money management.
Discipline and patience, the winning bettor's old friends.
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I suppose you knew it was coming. I have picked up British Colombia Lions +348 over Edmonton Eskimos.
Like I said, a loss here would likely lead to an opportunity in the near term. I do not see safety in taking the points as a loss here could easily be a blow out. From a market perspective, this is about the upset or not the upset and this number is sufficiently high to buy.
Further, I have picked up OVER 47.5 (+100) for British Colombia Lions versus Edmonton Eskimos.
Good Luck.
It took 9 overtime points for Edmonton to win 26-23. This was a bit of bad beat for the Under bettors and a close one for the upset bettors. I broke even.
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Indeed, today was about the Total markets…
Here’s a table comparing my predicted scores, posted for each game, in this thread to the offered market from week 3 thru Sat night:
Model Performance vs. ATS ML Totals W L W L W L 1st quarter 10 2 5 7 5 5 2nd Quarter 12 7 13 7 8 11 Half Season: 22 9 18 14 13 16 3rd Quarter 9 11 11 9 8 10 Week 16 3 1 4 1 2 2 17 2 0 3 0 0 3 Total Records: 36 21 36 24 23 31 % ATS: 0.631579 ML: 0.6 Totals: 0.425926
The 0-3 in the Totals column for week 17 indicates the slide I had predicted. Similar to stocks, all markets, or market segments go through certain phases. For sports, often, aspects of these phases rotate between the lines, moneylines, and Totals, hitting each one at different times.
Imagine a giant pool or ocean flowing from one edge, to the next. Because of dynamics and different aspects the marketplace, the edges are jagged, with bays and peninsulas, but the money still flows, towards and away from the sides.
Such is the sports marketplace when you begin to breakdown different aspects and compare them across the markets, you can see the ebb and flow of different types of money.
It’s a whole different ballgame to develop the necessary metrics and apply the essential experience to be able to successfully identify and navigate those ebbs and flows to turn them into profit.
I hope you followed along today as my goal was to aid in part with those metrics, but mostly to help cut that learning curve when it comes to essential experience.
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I believe it would be wise to pass on the Total bet here. I am predicting an Under, have seen my Total predictions fail 5 times in a row, and already made money on the Totals during this stretch. At first glance it would seem going with the forecast is a good idea but unfortunately it’s not that easy. These two teams have played twice this season. Both games resulted in an Under but the second game, in Hamilton, was 49 points.
I think the oddsmakers have a good handle on what they are trying to do in this final game and part of it is the total coming in as low as 47, which will probably be 46.5 or 46 by close considering the Under pressure. This could be a situation where the market has adjusted and bettors may not realize it. For now, this line is too low to pick up the Under and the Over is simply too risky; it’s a pass.
The other part of the oddsmakers and book’s handle on this week is the low line of Hamilton -3 mentioned above. Edmonton didn’t blow out BC, but BC didn’t get the upset either. While I am reluctant to put money on a turn in the Total markets, when considering unnamed metrics dating back a couple of weeks, I am willing to pony up for a market turn in my predictions against the moneyline and pick up Montreal Alouettes +140 over Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
This truly is a swing game and again we are looking at situation where this game, depending on the result, helps us determine money as it enters next week. If the moneyline bet were to fail here, I believe we will have opportunity down the road to get this bet back.
There should be pressure on Hamilton by game time and as other houses offer moneylines, and if it grows, I may add to this position.
Good Luck.
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I went ahead and added to the Montreal position with Montreal Alouettes +145 over Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
Good Luck.
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Here's what I have for this week's games:
Side Total Toronto -4.5 50.1 BC 7.7 56.3 Winnipeg 1.3 56.7 Saskatchewan 4.7 48.2 Comment
