CFL

[KVB]

For the first game today I have a predicted score of Toronto winning with 33 or 34 points to Montreal’s 17 points. This prediction tends to be on the higher end as far as winning margins as most have a 5 or 6 point game. Some models have it closer and even give the nod to Montreal. This is a concern for the opening game this week.

I have many metrics indicating the market seeks a sizeable upset in the near future. In similar situations Montreal has come through with that upset. Further, forecasts showing Montreal a winner come from different groups. Some fairly sharp math models produce the result as well as some of the most unsophisticated and simple. This line opened at -8 and has seen some pressure towards Montreal, pushing it to -7 is many places.

I would like to pick up the upset here but also know that, in a sense, this game may be a bit of “bait.” Looking down the road, we can see more alignment in the Edmonton vs. Saskatchewan game on Saturday. With a 9 point line, this could be the upset we’re looking for.

I have picked up Montreal Alouettes +260 and +7 (-105) over Toronto Argonauts. I recognize that even the pointspread carries a degree of risk here which is outweighed only slightly by the +260 price on the moneyline. It is my belief that the line, if it does close a point lower than the open at 7, has made this move in order to be consistent with a moneyline adjustment.

Toronto could make it ugly tonight, with a huge blowout. I say bring it on. Sending that market message, attempting to de moralize some groups of keen bettors, is just the kind of confirmation we need moving forward.

This Total may have opened a bit high at 52 as just about everyone predicts a lower scoring game. I have 50 or 51 points but some of those models seeking Montreal predict as low as 41 or 42 points. It’s no surprise there is Under pressure here and that line has moved. We have to ask ourselves why it opened where it did, but should probably just watch while keeping that thought in mind. With so many lined up, however, and money split on the side, this game could present an Over.

Further analysis of game two tonight could help shed some light on the overall risk factors involved here and an Over bet is not off the table tonight.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

lol...10 minutes after posting this the line moves to +248 at 5 Dimes.

Ra77er?

[KVB]

For the second game tonight I have Hamilton scoring 23 or 24 points to BC’s 17. Many have Hamilton winning by as many, or even more but it seems most have more overall points. I have metrics indicating my forecast is the sharper one here. To add to it, the line opened with Hamilton -1.5 with a Total 50.5 and has seen some pressure on both lines in the direction of my line.

This is the second game tonight so I wanted to get my forecast out and declare that the Under 50 appears to be good play here. I think the Total in the first game could be misleading on the field in order to drive money toward the second game. In fact, these two may be a good parlay opportunity to reduce risk.

But that parlay could go 0-2.

For this reason, I am going to pass on taking the OVER 49.5 in the first game and UNDER 50 in the second game until more information is available.

In terms of the moneyline and spread, Hamilton could have their hands full tonight. The market seeks an upset and I think it’s best to again gather more information. One thing I can point out about Hamilton is that they have covered as a favorite two times in a row: week 16 in the only game Friday night and last Sunday’s swing game (a bet I lost in this thread with Montreal, a team we are on tonight.). In light of the give and take style of the markets and the low line, a Hamilton failure on the moneyline must be taken into consideration.

For now it may be best to watch closely with these tendencies in mind.

[KVB]

Montreal marches down and scores right away showing us the Underdog and the Over. I figure one of those will fail.

[KVB]

Toronto getting controlled early, losing the first down race 14-1 so far. Toronto has a baseball game that is about to begin. It's possible, as Montreal increases their lead in the CFL while the MLB game starts, that we see major adjustments in the CFL game and a Toronto comeback.

It's now 22-0 Montreal....

[KVB]

Toronto -6.5 for the second half seems very tempting. I'm currently holding a +260 upset at halftime with a 23 point lead.

This doesn't happen very often. Sometimes the markets and field can make a bettor look smarter, or even dumber, than he actually is.

Be aware and take such cues with a grain of salt. A wise man once said.."you are no better than your last bet."

My last bet on Montreal was a loss.

[KVB]

…I am going to pass on taking the OVER 49.5 in the first game and UNDER 50 in the second game until more information is available.

In terms of the moneyline and spread, Hamilton could have their hands full tonight. The market seeks an upset and I think it’s best to again gather more information…

…Montreal marches down and scores right away showing us the Underdog and the Over. I figure one of those will fail…

Indeed, the Over bet did fail here. Often, but not always, when something as generous as a +260 is paying out of the machine, those guys seeking to collect will get the Total wrong.

I still think Hamilton will have their hands full against BC and wouldn’t be surprised to see another upset. This game will be a pass for me.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I hate that I missed your play yesterday. By the time I read it and decided it made a lot of sense, the game had already started and MTL had scored. Nice work on that one!

[KVB]

For the first game today I have Ottawa winning with 30 points to Winnipeg’s 28. It seems most agree that Ottawa will win this game with well over 50 points but some forecasts can produce Ottawa winning by much more yet with points totals in the 40’s.

The line has opened with Ottawa -1 and is basically there or at a pick ‘em. Some houses did move to Winnipeg and the market seems fairly unsure on who to favor. In my opinion, given the success of yesterday’s analysis, this confusion warrants a pass without any convincing metrics to tell us otherwise.

The Total opened at 50.5 and has finally started to show some pressure downward. Sure, there is some pressure on the Under, but there is also pressure on the Over, which only shows in what looks to be a sharp line for the book. Should this line continue to drop or show 49.5, which I see in some spots, I would expect a bit of a bounce with Over support.

This Over play could likely be the winning bet. These total markets are once again in a bit of a slide from a market analyst perspective but the right time to enter may really require patience. In my opinion, houses like Pinny don’t want to move the line down for fear of players seeking this Over.

So this little game with Pinny could be one last chance to take some bettors before the next game. I see this, and I know this is the first game of the day, but it seems the books tried this business last week. If we don’t see on Over in the first game, chasing would be extremely dangerous; it would be better to pass on game two.

These two teams played on Friday last week and I believe this game is one where the books want to draw all kinds of action. My analysis regarding the moneylines on Friday was dead on while the Total parlay I mentioned would have gone 0-2.

Despite the risks, it makes sense to pass on the moneyline here and go with my forecst and pick up OVER 49.5 (-105) for Ottawa Redblacks versus Winnipeg Blue Bombers.

Good Luck.

[Ra77er]

lol...10 minutes after posting this the line moves to +248 at 5 Dimes.

Ra77er?

[KVB]

I hate that I missed your play yesterday. By the time I read it and decided it made a lot of sense, the game had already started and MTL had scored. Nice work on that one!

Yeah, these upsets never looked back.

BC was good play too, I should have put it in bold. It's nice to figure out a story for the Totals and either be 2-0 or 0-2. Hopefully passing on the Totals yesterday, which already saved a buck, will help us earn today.

[KVB]

...Should this line continue to drop or show 49.5, which I see in some spots, I would expect a bit of a bounce with Over support...

Houses in the Bookmaker family saw 49.5 and almost immediately bounced back to 50.5. There is Under pressure in general and it fell back to 49.5.

The Under pressure may be outpacing those Over bettors, or those Over bettors got what they wanted and are done.

The books really wanted action on this game, it should be interesting on the field.



edit: that line just went back to 49.5...there's a battle between bettors, one I predicted...

[KVB]

One point in the first quarter. My forecasts are 1-7 over the last 8 games when compared to the market with any discrepancy. Other, unnamed metrics see a similar slide.

The market is sending a message regarding Totals.

For the second game today I forecast a Total of 50 points.

...So this little game with Pinny could be one last chance to take some bettors before the next game. I see this, and I know this is the first game of the day, but it seems the books tried this business last week. If we don’t see on Over in the first game, chasing would be extremely dangerous; it would be better to pass on game two..

[KVB]

As I mentioned, I predict a Total of 50 points for the second game. I have Edmonton winning with 30 points to Saskatchewan’s 20 points. This is consistent with much of the world although there are some who have Saskatchewan playing a little closer. The line seems pretty sharp for the swing game here as it has opened with Edmonton -9 and we have seen a tick down to 8.5. My forecast is on the higher end at 50 points with numbers grading down as low as 40. The line opened at 47, causing a pass for many, yet generating a tug between those looking for less points and sharper bettors.

Those sharper bettors are in a slide with the Totals. There could be considerable pressure on the Over as the market seeks what we could call a bottom.

In this situation, the first game today could be misleading with that definitive 1-0 first quarter score. Clearly we need more information. Let’s see if the CFL makes it available in time.

For the side and moneyline I could see another close game here. Edmonton has won 6 in a row and, the last time these teams played, long ago, Edmonton handled the business covering a similar, slightly higher spread.

I have metrics indicating the Edmonton moneyline could fail but also that the Edmonton spread could cover. Perhaps we are looking at a potential middle here, with Saskatchewan plus the points.

For now it’s best to watch game 1 and pay attention to the Total. It’s possible the market “sold” the Over for game two with that 1-0 first quarter. If they don’t score a bunch in the second, look for an Over for the 2^nd half in game one.

[KVB]

Well there you go. It looks like a 25 point second quarter for game one. I don't even know the line, but the 2nd half Total in this game should be a pass.

We have seen far too many times where my analysis has been dead on and the answer come up short on the field. Given the current market environment regarding sharp groups of bettors this second quarter comeback could have come to early and should be a red flag.

Once again the field is appealing to an audience. Correctly reading this can answer that question..."do you know where your sharp money is?"

[KVB]

In a reaction to this week's action and contrary to initial analysis I have picked up OVER 47.5 (-103) and OVER 47.5 (-106) for Edmonton Eskimos versus Saskatchewan Roughriders.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

...If we don’t see on Over in the first game, chasing would be extremely dangerous; it would be better to pass on game two...

I have countered this earlier analysis based on new information regarding the markets. Sometimes it’s best to start the day with a plan that way, when the bullets start flying, you can make a little sense of direction.

As the fog of war begins to clear and results play themselves out on the field the market gets another dose of bets from those attempting to read the flow of money. It is my belief that some groups have crossed a line necessary patience and should see money coming their way.

My metrics also indicate another upset in the final game, but we’ve been paid this week with an upset already. So we may have a halftime bet, depending on the score, but for now I believe it’s time for the Total market to ease up a bit and offer some back.

Game two tonight should be very exciting.

[KVB]

...The market is sending a message regarding Totals...

...Once again the field is appealing to an audience. Correctly reading this can answer that question..."do you know where your sharp money is?"...

In contrast to the 1-0 1^st quarter of game one, with the potential Over coming in the last seconds, game two shows a 45 point first half.

Indeed, unless we see a 2 or less point 2^nd half, the market has turned, at least for now. Ordinarily I would be willing to pay the 2^nd half vigorish and get the Under, but with the loud messages we’ve already seen today, a pass is warranted.

I hope you have followed this weekend and that my analysis around the markets has made some sort of sense. I apologize for sometimes reversing course but there is extreme volatility right now and it can be difficult to navigate.

This thread has done a good job of navigation and, indeed, makes what happens on the field a little more interesting.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I'm still here. College football has dominated my time, but I said I would finish out the season here. This is my updated record. Nice week last week. Also the week I made a modification to my model. Time will tell if it's a long-term improvement.

		Sides		Totals
		W	L	W	L
Week 5		3	1	1	3
Week 6		4	0	1	3
Week 7		2	2	2	2
Week 8		1	3	3	1
Week 9		1	3	2	2
Week 10		1	3	3	1
Week 11		2	2	3	1
Week 12		3	1	2	2
Week 13		3	1	2	2
Week 14*		2	2	2	1
Week 15		2	2	2	2
Week 16		2	3	3	2
Week 17		2	2	1	3
Week 18		3	1	3	1
Totals		31	26	30	26
*One total play pushed

[HeeluvaGuy]

And here are my lines for this week:

		Side		Total
Toronto		10.5		54.2
Calgary		-21.7		50.7
Hamilton		-10.3		55.3
Edmonton		-6		41.8

GL!

[cankid]

Thanks for info GL today

[Booya711]

Leaning Toronto today

[KVB]

For tonight’s game I have British Colombia winning the game with 36 or 37 points to Toronto’s 17. While some forecasts have Toronto winning with points in the mid to upper 50’s, most seem to have BC winning by some degree, even as much as 10, with a bit of a disagreement in the Totals. Many are near the mid to low 50’s but some predicting a small BC win can go as low as the mid 40’s.

The line opened with Toronto -3 early and really hasn’t moved. Many forecasts predict an upset here, including mine. The BC upset, in my opinion, could be a dangerous play. From a recent public perspective we have to weigh the fact that Toronto only scored 2 points last week while BC scored 40. These were the highest and lowest scores last week. This combined with unsophisticated public metrics giving Toronto the nod is probably why we have a Toronto line of -3 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see downward pressure late towards BC.

If so, this could be a dangerous movement to play into as I have other metrics, along with my forecast, indicating BC should cover the spread. This could be more pressure than BC can handle and these metrics could likely be traps by the books in anticipation of the playoffs. I can see the spread going either way and will likely pass here.

The Total picture is a little different. I mentioned that most forecasts are in the 50’s and some are 10 points lower. It is my forecast that I want to focus on here. Going into this game, before the line was released, my metrics showed that British Colombia will cooperate with my Total line. In other words, regardless of who they play, my Total prediction for this game should be successful. This is a very strong metric and it comes as no surprise that the Total opened at 53.5 while my prediction was 53 or 54 points. This indicates a strong line on my behalf and that the books want some of us to pass here. Regarding my forecast, how can BC cooperate if there is no discrepancy to bet?

In my opinion, the books weaseled out of one here and simply want some of the sharper bettors to gamble or pass. Some bettors are buying this Total and I am not surprised if it goes down, towards that mid 40 line. After all, nearly all of the other forecasts are 54 to 57 points, close to the offered line.

The fact is it is week 19 and most bets early in the week, especially game 1 this week, are a true gamble. I do lean towards Toronto winning this game and Under 53.5 points. Unfortunately, while we are likely to see a few little streaks to be broken in the next two weeks, there will be those that hold, a sort of thorn in a market analyst’s side.

However, because of what I see as an extra effort to get some of us to pass and because, at one point, there should be a consequence to a losing play, I have picked up UNDER 53 (-104) for British Colombia Lions versus Toronto Argonauts.

This line can still be found at 53.5 for a -110 or more but I choose 53 with the smaller price. Fortunately, my margins this season are enough to absorb an unlikely push here and this play has already been bought.

In my opinion, a second market entry point is not warranted at this time.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Oh how quickly things can change. With the current movement I have pulled the trigger again with UNDER 53.5 (-104) for British Colombia Lions versus Toronto Argonauts.

Good Luck.

[aston]

well done KVB very very very hard to predict canada football games

[KVB]

well done KVB very very very hard to predict canada football games

Thanks for checking in aston.

[KVB]

One thing is for sure, the Totals are seeing much more action in this game than the side but that line is still about 53.5.

A bit of back and forth going on here.

[Booya711]

GL KVB...let's see Toronto and the under!

[KVB]

Last week I had Toronto winning 33 or 34 to 17 and they scored 2 points the whole game.

This week I have Toronto losing 17 to 36 or 37.

Something tells me BC doesn't get 40 this week and Toronto gets a more than 2 points.

[KVB]

GL KVB...let's see Toronto and the under!

Boooyaaa!! in the house.

Good evening and good weekend to you.

[KVB]

And here are my lines for this week:

		Side		Total
Toronto		10.5		54.2
Calgary		-21.7		50.7
Hamilton		-10.3		55.3
Edmonton		-6		41.8

GL!

Agreed with the other post, there are other sports starting to dominate the day.

Just a few weeks left here and we can close the books on 2015 CFL.

[KVB]

Toronto up 1 with a total of 25 points.

The halftime line is Toronto -2 and 27.5 points.

Basically the same fuggin bet as game time.

[KVB]

For today’s game I have Calgary winning with 30 points to Saskatchewan’s 13 or 14 points. It seems virtually all approaches, from the unsophisticated to the well updated and real time seem to have a 17 to 20 point margin of victory for Calgary. Likewise, most forecasts are in line offering a total in the low to mid 50’s giving each team a few more points than my prediction.

So there seems to be quite a bit of alignment among bettors regarding both the spread and Total and the line has opened the highest line of the year, in week 19 no less, with Calgary -14. This line has held steady but I am not surprised, with all the predictions that this line ticks upward, and we’ve seen 14.5 in many places.

It is my belief that this first 14 point line of the year has been offered a couple of weeks before the playoffs because it will play a role in the market’s give and take during the playoffs. I am passing on this side as we can learn from the results, but open parlay players, who don’t mind getting shorted on odds, would probably due fine with the Calgary moneyline in their open parlay. I do think that Calgary could cover the spread, but with so much alignment in the forecasts there is an inherent risk, especially of a back door cover. Perhaps a losing bet on the potential upset is just the first part of the take for those who recognize and act on this risk and it will be interesting to pour over the results.

My forecast differs from the said alignment in that I predict a lower score of 43 or 44 points. This Total opened early at 50 and with everyone predicting in the low to mid 50’s there is once again no surprise in the line movement upward.

I have metrics indicating my forecast will be closer to reality than the offered lines. Further, there is real value, not perceived, judged or estimated, but real value in the Under play here. I know value hasn’t always been a focus of writings but each week it is measured in the forecasts and other metrics and often implied.

I like the value presented in this issue and have picked up UNDER 50.5 (+102) for Saskatchewan Roughriders versus Calgary Stampeders.

It is my belief, based on evidence, that the closing line is not as important as the opening of 50. If the play is wrong the play is wrong, even if it is a 51 point game. For this reason I take and list the 50.5 (+102) first in this thread but have added to this position with UNDER 51 (-104) for Saskatchewan Roughriders versus Calgary Stampeders.

This position may or may not be closed for the trading side of this thread.

Good Luck.

[Booya711]

Nice under yesterday as I tailed to get back the argonaut shitshow

[HeeluvaGuy]

Wow. I totally spaced the game time. Was going to play Calgary minus the points. My model is 5-1 over the last 2 weeks on sides.