Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
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I had the +102 on my screen then took it off...lol. I think this is a good play at underdog money. And will jump on it if it grows; a little because of value, but mostly because of the "confirming" movement I'm seeking.
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Wow, that's embarrassing. Maybe I should just read, learn and keep this to myself.Originally posted by jane2geo
I was looking at the wrong column on the last three.
Ottawa -5
Hamilton -9.5
Calgary -4
BC -7Comment -
We are seeing some of that movement towards Toronto. Pinny jumped to Ottawa +107, and very quickly came back a bit. It was a reaction to coming off of the pick and making a one point line.
Remember last week, pretty solid analysis only to be wrong with the final play. So far looking correct on the line movement tonight, makes me hesitate a bit but +105 should hang there for a while now.
Could we see a 1.5 line by game time?
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On the anticipated move I went ahead with Ottawa Redblacks +1.5 (-107) over Toronto Argonauts.
The Ottawa QB just set a record for completions in a game and did it with over 80% completion rate. Let’s see if he can keep it going for a playoff run.
Good Luck.
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Burris, the Ottawa QB, was 45 for 53 for 504 yards last week. Let's hope it was tune up for this week and not the prelude to a let down.
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I like the moves and numbers. Trap or not, like I said in another thread, in the grand scheme of things this is a good number. I picked up Ottawa Redblacks +108 over Toronto Argonauts.
Well it looks like it’s Ottawa and Under for KVB tonight.
Good Luck.
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I think one of the reasons this line is a pk is because the game is in Ottawa; although its Ottawa @ Toronto.
Ottawa has a huge home field advantage, and are red hot.
Toronto is coming off a bye week.
Ottawa is playing their 3rd game in 10 days, its ridiculous.
Ottawa has revenge on their mind on Toronto from the loss a few weeks ago.
All that being said, I do like Ottawa as well; their home field, and hot play of late is too much to ignore.Comment -
Looks like the market hit a limit and has bounced back a bit. If momentum happens to swing this back to make Toronto a dog, I'd consider taking it for a guaranteed profit. But that's one really big IF.
Lines moving right after I posted...Ra77er are you slamming the books with limit plays again?
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Originally posted by jane2geo
Glad you're checking in Geo.Comment -
This may sound strange before the game starts, but there may be a 2nd half over opportunity here.Comment -
We are seeing 54.5 around the world.Originally posted by KVB
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I just added one more play to the total position with UNDER 54.5 (-105) for Toronto Argonauts versus Ottawa Redblacks.
Good Luck.
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I think you might have a nice middle opportunity with some or all of that if you're so inclined. We'll see...Originally posted by KVBI just added one more play to the total position with UNDER 54.5 (-105) for Toronto Argonauts versus Ottawa Redblacks.
Good Luck.
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GL todayComment -
Pinny hit Ottawa -109 on the moneyline at one point. They had +105 when I picked up +108.
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beautiful start 14 points in like 3 minutesComment -
27 point 1st quarter put a stake in that one.Originally posted by HeeluvaGuyComment -
Here's what I have for the rest of the games. The 2nd Toronto game will have to be revised after tonight.
Side Total Ottawa -6.5 61.3 Hamilton -24.9 62.6 Calgary -5.5 43.7 BC -11.1 55 Montreal 8.6 52 Comment -
Chad freaking owens!!!!!!Comment -
I mentioned we would try to beat the CFL one quarter of a season at a time and here is a basic review of the betting during the third quarter of this season.
Here is a link to the detailed record of the 2nd quarter wherein there is a link to the details of the first part of the season:
Again, the review is like last time. It is broken down into all the bold plays I’ve listed as well as just the first buy point for each game, which wasn’t always the best line or price. On the left is my record per game. If you just entered the market once, on my first play posted, then that would be an issue.
Like always, you can see the results per $100 bet for each bold play and each issue as well as the crude review of the closing line and whether it was beat.
There is also a column where you can see whether I, or the models being worked with, predicted the line movement.
There were no unpredictable movements on these plays but there is an improvement over the first half of the season as far as getting the best line, or better than the closing line.
$100 Bet Closing Beat the Predict Play Result Per Bold Per Issue Price Closer? Movement? 1-0 3-Sep BC +5 (-107) W 93.46 93.46 5 = Y 2-0 6-Sep SSK/Win OVER 50.5 (-102) W 98.04 98.04 50.5 = Y 3-0 SSK/Win 2nd OVER24.5 (-106) W 94.34 94.34 24.5 = 3-1 7-Sep Edm 1st +2.5 (-110) L -100 -100 2.5 = 3-2 Edm +5 (-106) L -100 -100 +4 + Y 3-3 Edm +180 L -100 -100 +160 + Y 4-3 Edm 2nd pk (+107) W 107 107 pk = 4-4 12-Sep SSK -1 (-105) L -100 -100 -1 = Y 5-4 SSK/Win UNDER 50.5 (-106) W 94.34 94.34 50.5 = Y 6-4 Edm -106 W 94.34 94.34 -115 + Y 7-4 Edm -1 (+102) W 102 102 -1 + Y 8-4 13-Sep Ott/BC UNDER 50.5 (-106) W 94.34 94.34 49.5 + Y 8-5 18-Sep BC/Cal UNDER 47 (-105) L -100 -100 46.5 + Y 9-5 Cal -11.5 (-115) W 86.96 86.96 -11.5 = Y Cal -11 (-105) W 95.24 10-5 19-Sep Edm +6 (-112) W 89.29 89.29 +6 = Y Edm +5.5 (-101) W 99.01 11-5 Edm +230 W 230 230 +210 + Y 12-5 Ott/Ssk OVER 50.5 (-108) W 92.59 92.59 52 + 12-5-1 25-Sep Cal/Win OVER 48 (-105) P 0 0 47.5 + Y 12-6-1 26-Sep BC/Edm UNDER 46 (-103) L -100 -100 46.5 - Y BC/Edm UNDER 46.5 (-107) L -100 12-7-1 Ott -2.5 (-106) L -100 -100 -2.5 = Y Ott -2 (-105) L -100 12-8-1 Ott -120 L -100 -100 -140 + Y 13-8-1 Ott 2nd -4 (-120) W 83.33 83.33 -5 = 13-9-1 27-Sep Mon -120 L -100 -100 -130 + Y 14-9-1 Mon/Ssk OVER 49 (-104) W 96.15 96.15 49 = Y 15-9-1 1-Oct Ott -130 W 76.92 76.92 -130 = Y 16-9-1 2-Oct Cal/Ham UNDER 49.5 (-107) W 93.46 93.46 48 + Y 17-9-1 3-Oct Win +6 (-102) W 98.04 98.04 6 = Y 18-9-1 Win 2nd +2.5 (+105) W 105 105 2.5 = 18-10-1 Ssk/BC UNDER 51 (-105) L -100 -100 51 = Y 18-11-1 Ssk/BC 2nd UNDER 26 (-110) L -100 -100 26 = 18-11-1 723.85 729.6 7-2-1 1st Quarter Results 424.05 437.52 19-12 2nd Quarter Results 1527.7 872.25 44-25-2 Total 2675.6 2039.37
For the third quarter, weeks 6 through 10, I was 18-11-1 on individual issues and, including the 1st and 2nd quarters, am 44-25 overall. Of those 44 wins and 25 losses, 16 wins and 9 losses are Total bets.
Also, of that 44-25 record, 9 wins and 7 losses were from moneyline bets.
That leaves a record against the sides of 19 wins and 9 losses.
If you had just bet the first buy point listed in bold for each game you would be positive nearly 7.3 units this quarter and 20.39 units overall. The 9-7 moneyline record shows profit and represents about 5.10 of those 20.39 units.
A bettor betting each bold play posted would be positive 7.24 units this quarter and 26.76 units overall.
A bettor betting 2% of starting bankroll, not adjusting the bet size, would be up over 40% or over 53% of that bankroll since July 9th, depending on the strategy employed.
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You gotta admit ... that was a hell of a way to lose a play.Comment -
Yeah tonight had certainly had its ups and downs in the end.Originally posted by HeeluvaGuy
But last Monday night's NFL was a hell of a way to lose a play...lol.
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Here are the performances of the predicted scores I’ve given for each game when compared against the spread, moneyline and Totals with any discrepancy.
Model Performance vs. ATS ML Totals W L W L W L 1st quarter 10 2 5 7 5 5 2nd Quarter 12 7 13 7 8 11 Half Season: 22 9 18 14 13 16 Week 11 3 1 3 1 2 2 12 2 2 1 3 3 1 13 3 1 3 1 1 3 14 0 4 2 2 1 3 15 1 3 1 3 1 1 9 11 10 10 8 10 Total Records: 31 20 28 24 21 26 ATS: 0.607843 ML: 0.538462 Totals: 0.446809
Of particular concern could be weeks 14 and 15. These represent the first weeks this season that my predictions have lost 3 or more of the 4 games in single week against the spread.
And it happened two weeks in a row.
For the first game of week 16 my prediction of Ottawa winning 40 or more to 17 failed against the spread and money line but correctly predicted the Over.
That means my raw predictions against the spread have gone 1-8 over the last 9 games.
Talk about a market shakeout. At this point most bettors could or would be very discouraged. I’ve written about this psychology in the past and have reason to believe the current results reflect normal market behavior. For the most part, all sports experience similar shakeouts at different times throughout the season. It is to be expected.
Given the performance of my forecasts during the first part of the season, I had posted that the performance against the spread would slow and I expected the moneyline to continue to improve. I still see this as a condition.
Interestingly, while my scores have done poorly against the spread recently, other metrics had indicated a bit of a market shakeout, as mentioned before, and on the other side of that shakeout were groups of bettors who came out winners. These groups combined with sharper lines can be very dangerous and it makes sense for the books to split them.
When compared to certain metrics, this split like behavior indicates my line isn’t so bad after all. Further, I mentioned opening Total lines last week and how they had indicated a level of sharpness in my forecasts.
It may seem like a little hindsight, but since market behavior like these shakeouts, while normal, are still the rarer type of environment, they can be difficult to sniff out. Sometimes, it takes a little review to see what happened. To be fair, I was posting that the markets were in choppy territory and did profit through most of it.
I’ve posted before that the third quarter can be the toughest of the season. Market behavior, like that of late, occurring this late in the year can also indicate preparations for the playoffs. Perhaps the books will hope some will abandon or adjust their methods, or at least be a part of a take, before the time comes where they may have to give. The give and take of the markets are still alive, they are just less instant, stretched out a bit.
Let me say one more thing about the give and take. While there is a market shakeout and my forecasts have suffered, some other forecasts, that have been suffering, are finally doing well. I’ve posted about how there are many ways to handicap and, because of this, the give and take continues.
Indeed, the markets have been getting tougher and patience with money management can be the only thing bettors survive on in times like these. Without it, they may never make it to the end of the tunnel.
And when it comes to market analysis, no bettor is immune. A couple of times in the last couple of weeks, I allowed line movement to influence me to pull the trigger on games I had posted initially as a pass. Tuesday’s game was no exception.
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Earlier in the season, and in this thread, I talked about the books targeting certain groups or types of bettors and targeting certain market results. I mentioned that in doing so, and taking advantage of a bettor’s likely lack of patience, the books sometimes use different angles to target the same groups of bettors multiple times.
Likewise, when the bettors are seeking a certain market result the books can target multiple groups of bettors over time, bringing in each group until everyone has been taken, before finally paying out. I think we had a good example early in the thread.
The markets, which are led by the numbers, put up by the oddsmakers and books (but are rooted in the numbers that play out on the field) have a tendency to align themselves in favor of the books’ practice of targeting.
Among many factors, it’s a lack of patience, and particularly the tendency of bettors to “chase” certain bets or betting angles that allow the books to run the marketplace in circles, over and over again, in this fashion.
When posting earlier on this topic I believe I mentioned I had identified several targets over a few games and that the books were ready to bring the market around to pay those groups. We had successful play. In a similar fashion I have seen certain market results come up as targets and several different types of bettors be targeted over several games.
I, a successful CFL bettor so far this year, have been very accurate of late on my analysis and anticipation of market movement as well much of what has played out on the field. But in the end, the recent conclusions being reached on much of that analysis have been flat out wrong.
Most recently, on Tuesday night, I had anticipated an Under result and had anticipated a “confirming” line movement that not only came to fruition, but also triggered another buy point on the Under…a play that was doomed on the field from the opening drive. The insight from that market anticipation is rather esoteric and when the books point that direction after a stretch against bettors, the market usually turns soon after.
During this recent shakeout regarding the Totals we have also seen the books being very active in targeting even the sharpest of market analysts as well as some modelers. Admittedly, I “fell” for some of those traps and bought plays accordingly. Perhaps the first half season success lulled me to sleep, but as the NFL began, I have been a bit less patient, betting many CFL games during a tough time in the late season.
Anyway, there really are only so many tactics (but many ways to implement them) that the books recycle on the bettors and during the recent Total markets we have seen many of them. I believe we may be seeing the market shift back soon.
For the second game on Saturday, I have Winnipeg's 27 points to British Colombia’s 20 or 22 points. I differ on the winner from most forecasts which have BC winning by anywhere from 6 or 7 points to 9 or even more than 10. This line opened with British Colombia -7 points and has ticked towards my line to 6.5 and even 6 in some places. There are two games until this one and I’ll address the spread another time.
I have predicted 47 to 49 points and most forecasts seeking higher BC margin of victory also seek a game of 51 or more points. The Total opened at 50.5 and sits there. The models looking at a 6 or 7 point game, those the books may be putting in a position to pass on the side, look for a lower score, even in the low 30’s.
For many reasons, I believe these bettors will succeed here. Based on unnamed metrics that root themselves in the first half of the season, I believe the books are splitting money between certain groups and Tuesday’s convincing Over, with its “confirming” market movement, may represent a turn in the market. More recent metrics also indicate basically the same.
Because I anticipate pressure on the Under and can see this line ticking downward I have already picked up UNDER 50.5 (-103) for Winnipeg Blue Bombers versus British Colombia Lions.
The obvious risks to this play are that we still have two CFL games to play before this game and one of those is earlier the same day. While we can speculate to the flow of money with Tuesday’s results, that gamed seemed more about reconciling past market behavior than giving too much indication of future behavior. Perhaps that’s why it was on Tuesday, seemingly not a part of the regular weekend. I still kick myself for getting drawn in on the line movement and prices and picking up Ottawa.
We will be getting a lot of new information between now and Saturday night, but my metrics and the nature of this thread call for this early buy at reduced juice.
Good Luck.
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Who/what do we like tonight? I'm tempted by HAM and the over.Comment -
Ill be going with Hamilton tonightOriginally posted by HeeluvaGuy
Hamilton -8.0Comment -
For tonight’s game I have a Hamilton winning with a predicted score of 27 or 28 points to Saskatchewan’s 20 or 22 points. There are many models that suggest a much larger Hamilton win of over 20 points with scores of 55 to 60 points. The line opened with Hamilton -6.5 early and has steadily grown to 8 in many places.
While many have Hamilton covering this spread my prediction is right at the spread and seems to be in line with the team totals. This will likely be a pass for me. These two teams played earlier in the year, a game in which money was drawn to Saskatchewan, a one point favorite; but Hamilton was the winner. This thread made a profit from that swing game.
I’m going to pass on the side because my metrics indicate this game, especially with the line movement, is a toss-up. I do believe the Hamilton money line is a winning bet, but not at these prices. I would need to see the point spread a little closer to the 5 or 6 point margin of my prediction (Saskatchewan with 22 points to Hamilton’s 27 or 28) as opposed to the 7 or 8 point side of the prediction.
I believe my prediction is a bit sharper than other formulae for tonight’s case and that Hamilton, who has lost to Saskatchewan before, may play a close game here, in the neighborhood of a TD.
The Total opened with 49.5, ticked up to 50, and has since made its way to 48. With my prediction of 27 or 28 to 20 or 22, that line has pretty much hit everything but the 47. I do feel there is a good chance of another Under between these two teams and can see why the line has moved against the higher scoring models. While I say another Under, know that last time they played, there were 51 points scored to go Under a 53.5 opener that closed at 56.5.
I would expect this total to tick even further down towards that 47 point prediction. This would confirm certain aspects of my numbers and confirm this should be a pass.
These lines and this game are simply too close to call relative to my numbers and metrics indicate a pass all around. It’s not that we have a great deal to learn from this game in terms of flow of money, but we can learn some. If Saskatchewan wins this game outright or Hamilton wins in a blowout, there will more to say on this topic.
Read that last sentence again. I don’t get a sense that the CFL markets want to appear too “sexy” right now. This would imply tonight’s game is in the middle, with the favorite winning, but not covering.
At 8 points, the underdog doesn’t look too bad. A move to 8.5 could draw me in, in part because value, and in part because of “confirming” movement…a strategy that has recently put me onto some losers.
For now, there is no play tonight.
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We haven’t really seen a shift in the broader markets, but some houses may be a little heavy on Hamilton. It looks like Heritage ticked to 8.5, and if they are heavy on Hamilton I may be one of those bettors that help them. I’ve picked up Saskatchewan Roughriders +8.5 (-102) over Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
Good Luck.
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Okay very good luck indeed, I didn't get that hook though eesh
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There was a mistake in this table. In week 15 my forecasts were 2-2 against the money line, not 1-3. Unfortunately, I can’t blame my last loss on this mistake, only greed…lol.Originally posted by KVB
Fortunately, this mistake cost no money. Here is a revised table…
Model Performance vs. ATS ML Totals W L W L W L 1st quarter 10 2 5 7 5 5 2nd Quarter 12 7 13 7 8 11 Half Season: 22 9 18 14 13 16 Week 11 3 1 3 1 2 2 12 2 2 1 3 3 1 13 3 1 3 1 1 3 14 0 4 2 2 1 3 15 1 3 2 2 1 1 9 11 11 9 8 10 Total Records: 31 20 29 23 21 26 ATS: 0.607843 ML: 0.557692 Totals: 0.446809
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Originally posted by Ra77erOkay very good luck indeed, I didn't get that hook though eesh
I seem to be entering this pattern of declaring a pass and then talking myself, or rather letting the market talk me into the bets.
I lean towards the Under in this game too, my numbers just seem to hint that way.
Let's see if Saskatchewan can keep it close.
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Late money reporting on Hamilton and a broader shift across the board. I added Saskatchewan Roughriders +9 (-103) over Hamilton Tiger-Cats.
Good Luck.
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I know this thread has it's bold plays but sometimes I show the 5 Dimes as I build positions for potential money flow. Here's my current pending from there...
I'm in tonight's WNBA game. Next year maybe we'll do a WNBA thread as well. I was thinking it started at 5:30, but it looks like it tipped. That line closed -3, should be interesting.
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Originally posted by KVB
Reacting to the market could cost this thread again tonight.
The second half could go Over the 23.5 line and still stay Under the game, but it doesn't have to.
Hamilton is -2.5 for the second half. I think it's just a little too risky to take Hamilton but Saskatchewan doesn't have to come back, contributing to the Under play.
I see no second half play here.
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Damn. That would have been a nice meaningless TD for me. 1-1 tonight.Comment
