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UFC Odds & Best Bets Today: UFC 290 Schedule, Picks

Kyle Smith

Last Updated: July 8, 2023 3:33 PM EDT • 3 min 40 sec read.

UFC predictions
UFC predictions

A pair of title fights headline the UFC’s return to T-Mobile Arena on Saturday when featherweight Alexander Volkanovski battles Yair Rodriguez and flyweight champion Brandon Moreno clashes with personal boogeyman Alexandre Pantoja. Read on for our UFC best bets for UFC 290 based on the odds from our best sportsbooks.

Pound-for-pound stalwart Alexander Volkanovski is looking to continue his reign of terror at featherweight after failing to wrest the lightweight title from Islam Makhachev at UFC 284 in February. Prior to his loss to Makhachev, “Alexander The Great” established himself among the very best in UFC history with a string of stirring victories over the likes of Max Holloway, Brian Ortega, Chad Mendes, Chan Sung Jung, and 145-pound GOAT Jose Aldo.

Owner of the interim featherweight strap, Rodriguez earned that distinction with a slick submission victory over Josh Emmett on the same card Volkanovski lost to Makhachev. Rodriguez stamped his ticket to that interim title bout with a win over perennial contender Ortega (he suffered a fight-ending injury, but Rodriguez looked good until the fight was waved off).

In the co-main event, Moreno will try to both hold onto his title and solve the puzzle that is Pantoja. The two have faced off twice in their careers, with the challenger besting the champion both times.

Aside from the main and co-main, there are plenty of intriguing matchups with betting potential.

Here are our UFC best bets for UFC 290 (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Volkanovski-Rodriguez pick and Moreno-Pantoja pick.

UFC 290 schedule and odds

(Odds via DraftKings)

Main card (10 p.m. ET)

  • Alexander Volkanovski (-375) vs. Yair Rodriguez (+285)
  • Brandon Moreno (-200) vs. Alexandre Pantoja (+170)
  • Robert Whittaker (-410) vs. Dricus Du Plessis (+310)
  • Jalin Turner (-285) vs. Dan Hooker (+240)
  • Bo Nickal (-2800) vs. Val Woodburn (+1300)

Prelims (6 p.m. ET)

  • Robbie Lawler vs. Niko Price (-240)
  • Jack Della Maddalena (-950) vs. Josiah Harrell (+600)
  • Yazmin Jauregui (-410) vs. Denise Gomes (+310)
  • Jimmy Crute (-130) vs. Alonzo Menifield (+110)
  • Tatsuro Taira (-1050) vs. Edgar Chairez (+700)
  • Vitor Petrino (-225) vs. Marcin Prachnio (+190)
  • Cameron Saaiman (-600) vs. Terrence Mitchell (+430)
  • Shannon Ross (+125) vs. Jesus Santos Aguilar (-145)

UFC 290 best bets

  • Winning method: Volkanovski by decision (+140 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Over/Under: Moreno v. Pantoja Over 3.5 Rounds (-155 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Winning Method: Whittaker by decision (+215 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Winning method: Della Maddalena by KO/TKO in Round 1 (-130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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UFC top picks for UFC 290

Winning method: Volkanovski by decision (+140 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Volkanovski is the pick here, with the most likely result being a decision. The Australian has proven to be the class of the division, but I don’t necessarily think he’ll close out Rodriguez within the distance. Five of Volkanovski’s last six wins have gone to the judge’s scorecards, and I expect more of the same Saturday night.

Of course, there’s always a chance the impossibly creative Rodriguez catches Volkanovski with something scintillating, but that’s not the most likely outcome.

Ultimately, the champion is the more well-rounded fighter, with better wrestling, and more steady, bread-and-butter striking (Volkanovski is more accurate and lands at a higher volume). He’ll either grind “El Pantera” down for five rounds en route to a lopsided decision or rack up a late stoppage. I’m leaning toward a decision.

O/U: Moreno v. Pantoja Over 3.5 Rounds (-155 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Moreno and Pantoja have combined for 11 losses in their respective careers, all of which have come via decision. Yes, Pantoja holds a submission victory over Moreno, but that fight was considered an “exhibition” since it happened within the confines of The Ultimate Fighter. Pantoja won the rematch, scoring a clear unanimous decision way back in 2018. Since then, Moreno has completely transformed into quite possibly the best 125-pounder on the planet, and Pantoja has kept pace, racking up a 7-2 record over that span.

Although I think Moreno has improved enough to finally slay the dragon, I don’t expect him to polish off the dangerous Pentoja with any sort of expediency. Instead, I expect an all-out war that’ll last at least three and a half rounds.

Winning method: Whittaker by decision (+215 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

This is a bit of a risky pick. Whittaker and Du Plessis have combined for 22 finishes, and both can end a fight violently. However, Whittaker has gone to the judges' scorecards in five straight bouts, and his last six victories have come via decision.

I see Whittaker as the more well-rounded fighter, and he’ll likely outwork DDP over 15 minutes en route to a hard-fought victory. If this was a five-rounder, I might back a stoppage, but for three rounds, I’m comfortable backing the decision.

Winning method: Della Maddalena by KO/TKO in Round 1 (-130 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Harrell is an undefeated prospect, making his UFC debut on a week’s notice. Della Maddalena is a proven entity with four straight finishes inside the Octagon. As such, I’m expecting Della Maddalena to feast. The 26-year-old Australian is the bigger, stronger fighter, with a penchant for ending things early. 11 of Della Maddalena’s victories have come via KO/TKO, with seven of those demolitions coming in the opening stanza. There isn’t much value in backing Della Maddalena to win, but there’s plenty of value in backing him to win quickly and violently.

I’m not saying Harrell doesn’t have a decent UFC career ahead of him, but I expect Della Maddalena to run roughshod on Saturday night.

UFC best bets made 07/06/2023 at 10:30 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Kyle Smith
A sportswriter for more than a decade, Kyle Smith was once voted “World’s 78th Greatest Lover” by ‘Relatively Attractive People Magazine’.* After covering nearly every sport under the sun for theScore, Smith settled in as head MMA writer where he helped shape the company’s coverage and establish its combat sports identity. Since then, he’s dipped his toes (cannonballed) into the world of betting, where he specializes in the UFC and NHL. Constantly chasing that gigantic Parlay Dragon, Smith was devastated when a Leon Edwards head kick completely obliterated a recent five-leg parlay. You can read his rantings and ravings on Twitter @Heldrificus. *Not a real publication.