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Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez Odds, Picks, Predictions: Return of The King

Kyle Smith

Last Updated: July 8, 2023 3:36 PM EDT • 2 min 41 sec read.

The featherweight title is at stake when interim champion Yair Rodriguez clashes with division overlord Alexander Volkanovski in the main event of UFC 290. Read on for our Volkanovski-Rodriguez UFC picks based on the odds from our best sports betting apps.

Alexander Volkanovski returns to the featherweight division with designs of continuing his reign of terror after failing in his bid to become a "champ champ" against lightweight kingpin Islam Makhachev at UFC 284. “Alexander The Great” is undefeated in the Octagon at 145 pounds, counting Chad Mendes, Brian Ortega, Chan Sung Jung, Max Holloway, and featherweight GOAT Jose Aldo amongst his growing list of victims.

For his part, Rodriguez is looking to tear the interim tag off of his title. “El Pantera” booked his ticket to the interim title fight with a TKO victory over Brian Ortega back in July 2020. Rodriguez was winning the bout when “T-City” suffered a fight-ending shoulder injury.

Following his victory over Ortega, Rodgriguez captured interim gold with an emphatic decimation of Josh Emmett.  The 30-year-old Mexican battered Emmet with stinging strikes before sinking in a fight-ending triangle choke with under a minute remaining in the second stanza.

Can Volkanovski hold on to his featherweight crown Saturday? Or will Rodriguez viciously dismantle the king?

Here is our best Volkanovski-Rodriguez pick for UFC 290 (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our Moreno-Pantoja pick.

Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez pick 

Volkanovski (-375 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Rodriguez may be among the very best at featherweight, but Volkanovski is the very best in the division. Aside from a perfectly placed, wild kill shot, I don’t see too many avenues to victory for “El Pantera.” 

Rodriguez is the more creative striker, but Volkanovski is the more accurate striker (56% to Rodriguez’s 46%). He also throws at a higher volume (landing 6.35 significant strikes per minute to Rodriguez’s 4.78), and takes less punishment (3.40 significant strikes absorbed per minute to the challenger’s 4.03).

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The champion has also fared better against the absolute best in the division. A tough Rodriguez suffered through a signature five-round beating at the hands of former champ Holloway, while Volkanovski owns three wins over the “Blessed” Hawaiian. Of course, MMAth isn’t an exact science, and styles make fights. But Rodriguez’s performance against Holloway is an ugly preview of what he could be subjected to on Saturday night.

Expect Volkanovski to outwork Rodriguez over five rounds en route to a unanimous decision victory. If -375 isn’t a sexy enough number for you to back the champ, there’s definite value in supporting him to win by points (+140 via DraftKings), which is an outcome we highlighted in our UFC 290 best bets.

Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez best odds

DraftKings (-375)

DraftKingsFanDueltheScoreBetCaesarsPointsBet
-375-375-385-400-400

Volkanovski opened as a heavy -425 favorite, and that line has moved slightly to anywhere between -400 and -375 at our best sports betting sites. The ideal approach is to snatch him up at -375 at either DraftKings or FanDuel.

Those looking for a little more meat on the bone can always back a specific finish, and there’s value in betting Volkanovski to escape with a decision victory.

Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez fight info

Date: Saturday, July 8
TV: PPV, ESPN+
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

 Volkanovski-Rodriguez pick made 7/7/2023 at 6:12 p.m. ET

Here are our best sports betting apps:

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Written By:
Kyle Smith
A sportswriter for more than a decade, Kyle Smith was once voted “World’s 78th Greatest Lover” by ‘Relatively Attractive People Magazine’.* After covering nearly every sport under the sun for theScore, Smith settled in as head MMA writer where he helped shape the company’s coverage and establish its combat sports identity. Since then, he’s dipped his toes (cannonballed) into the world of betting, where he specializes in the UFC and NHL. Constantly chasing that gigantic Parlay Dragon, Smith was devastated when a Leon Edwards head kick completely obliterated a recent five-leg parlay. You can read his rantings and ravings on Twitter @Heldrificus. *Not a real publication.