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Moreno vs. Pantoja Odds, Picks, Predictions: Moreno Looks to Slay the Dragon at UFC 290

Kyle Smith

Last Updated: July 8, 2023 3:34 PM EDT • 2 min 47 sec read.

Brandon Moreno of Mexico poses on the scale during the UFC 277 ceremonial weigh-in at American Airlines Center as we look at our Moreno-Pantoja pick.
Brandon Moreno of Mexico poses on the scale during the UFC 277 ceremonial weigh-in at American Airlines Center. Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images/AFP.

Brandon Moreno is hoping the third time is the charm while defending his flyweight title against Alexandre Pantoja in the co-main event of UFC 290 on Saturday night. Read on for our Moreno-Pantoja UFC picks based on the odds from our best sports betting apps.

Alexandre Pentoja has logged two victories over Brandon Moreno. Granted, one triumph was considered an exhibition bout under the umbrella of the 24th season of The Ultimate Fighter. But that’s still a giant, eagle-sized feather in his cap.

However, the Brazilian’s last win over Moreno came a half decade ago, and the “Baby Assassin” has been steadily transforming into the best 125-pounder on the planet in the years since (keep in mind I consider Demetrious Johnson a 135-pounder at this point).

After trading the title back and forth in what felt like a never-ending series with archrival Deiveson Figueiredo, Moreno finally vanquished his most storied foe at UFC 283 in January. He's fought five times since December 2020, and five have come against Figueiredo, while the other was a TKO victory over Kai Kara-France.

Pentoja has racked up a 6-2 record since his 2018 win over Moreno, carving through Yuta Sasaki, Wilson Reis, Matt Schnell, Manel Kape, Brandon Royval, and Alex Perez en route to a title shot.

Can Pentoja go 3-0 against Moreno, capturing the flyweight strap in the process? Or will the champ cement himself as the finest 125-pounder in the UFC?

Here is our best Moreno-Pentoja pick for UFC 290 (odds via FanDuel; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Check out our UFC 290 best bets.

Moreno vs. Pentoja pick 

Moreno (-190 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Moreno is a completely different fighter than the one who lost to Pantoja in 2018. Both men have been improving since then, but Moreno has been surging ahead.

“The Baby Assassin” has developed into a more polished product than he was during the first two meetings between these two fighters. His performances are filled with mad scrambles, solid wrestling, improved boxing, and the kind of venomous finishing ability that’s been forged in the fires of the division’s upper echelon.

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Pantoja is no slouch either. He’s a terrifying grappler who can quickly snatch a neck if given the opportunity. I just don’t think that opportunity will present itself. I expect the two to engage in a tooth-and-nail war, with Moreno emerging victorious after 25 hard-fought minutes.

If you find you can’t pick an outcome, backing the Over (3.5 rounds, -165 DraftKings ) feels like a high-value bet. The two men have combined for 11 losses in their careers, with every one coming via decision.

Check out our Volkanovski-Rodriguez pick.

Moreno vs. Pentoja best odds

FanDuel (-190)

DraftKingsFanDueltheScoreBetCaesarsPointsBet
-205-190-210-210-200

Moreno opened as a -160 favorite, and that gap has only widened as the fight grows closer. There isn’t too much of a difference in the odds between sportsbooks, so your best bet would be to snatch up the champ at -190 through FanDuel.

There are a few more avenues you can go down if you don't like that line. I see value in backing Moreno to win by decision (+190 at FanDuel and bet365). Or if you think Pantoja is destined to capture the title, take the challenger at +175 over through DraftKings.

Moreno vs. Pentoja fight info

Date: Saturday, July 8, 10 p.m. ET
TV: PPV, ESPN
Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV

Moreno-Pentoja pick made 6/8/2023 at 7:27 a.m. ET

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Written By:
Kyle Smith
A sportswriter for more than a decade, Kyle Smith was once voted “World’s 78th Greatest Lover” by ‘Relatively Attractive People Magazine’.* After covering nearly every sport under the sun for theScore, Smith settled in as head MMA writer where he helped shape the company’s coverage and establish its combat sports identity. Since then, he’s dipped his toes (cannonballed) into the world of betting, where he specializes in the UFC and NHL. Constantly chasing that gigantic Parlay Dragon, Smith was devastated when a Leon Edwards head kick completely obliterated a recent five-leg parlay. You can read his rantings and ravings on Twitter @Heldrificus. *Not a real publication.