Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett Prediction, Picks & Odds: Back the God of War Today
Here's our Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett prediction and UFC 329 betting preview: Saint-Denis is a -142 betting favorite to beat Pimblett in today's co-main event at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. The lightweight bout sits right under the Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway headliner on Paramount+, with the main card starting at 9 p.m. ET.
I'm on Saint-Denis. He brings a power and grappling game that erases Pimblett's best path to a win, and I'm fine laying -142 with three-quarters of the public money sitting on the other side. My favorite play is Saint-Denis to win, but the value I like most is the Over 2.5 rounds at +124. Pimblett is too tough to get blown out early, and a full unit on this fight going long at plus money is my best bet on the board.
🩸 Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett predictions: UFC 329
See all of our UFC picks for this weekend's fights.
| Market | Pick | Odds | Bet size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pick to win | Saint-Denis to win | -142 via DraftKings | 1.5 units to win 1.06 |
| Method of victory | Saint-Denis by decision | +400 via FanDuel | 0.5 units to win 2 |
| Best bet | Over 2.5 rounds | +124 via DraftKings | 1 unit to win 1.24 |
Total wagered: 3 units | Max profit: 4.3 units
💰 Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (+124)
The over 2.5 at +124 is my best bet, and it comes down to one simple clash — Saint-Denis finishes everybody, and Pimblett doesn't get finished. The Frenchman owns a 100% career finish rate across all 17 of his wins, so on paper, he's the last guy you'd expect to see hear the final horn. But Pimblett has never been knocked out, and he just went a full five rounds with Justin Gaethje without folding. That's the immovable object.
When a relentless finisher meets a fighter who simply refuses to break, you usually get a grind, not a highlight. Saint-Denis is more likely to control Pimblett on the mat and bank rounds than blast him out inside the first two, which is exactly why I also sprinkled on him by decision. Getting plus money on this going long is value.
🆚 Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett fight preview
Check our best UFC betting sites for the latest odds for this fight.
Saint-Denis is one of the nastiest pressure fighters in the division, and he's rolling. "The God of War" has won four in a row, all by finish, including an upset of red-hot knockout artist Mauricio Ruffy and an elbow-heavy beating of Dan Hooker at UFC 325. He's a southpaw who walks forward behind a brutal left kick and heavy hands, then drags the fight into the clinch and to the canvas, where his top pressure gets ugly in a hurry.
That grappling is what erases Pimblett's best path. The Baddy's cleanest route to victory is his jiu-jitsu and top control, and he's a legitimate threat there, with 10 submission wins and a second-degree black belt. However, Saint-Denis may simply be the more relentless grappler in this one. Pimblett's takedown defense also sits at just 44%.
Still, Pimblett isn't dead in the water, and that's why I'm not laying a bigger number. Saint-Denis is hittable, defending only about 42% of the strikes thrown at him.
Paddy's toughness keeps him live all night, and if he cracks Saint-Denis clean on a counter, this fight changes. I just think the more likely story is the Frenchman clubbing forward, winning the grappling exchanges, and grinding out the decision.
Prediction: Saint-Denis to win (-142 via DraftKings)
💡 How I'm handicapping Saint-Denis vs. Pimblett
The public is heavy on Pimblett here, with around 75% of bets on the Baddy, and I think that's the name and the personality talking more than the matchup. Saint-Denis is the more physical fighter. He hits harder, and he owns the tougher, more aggressive grappling game. I’ll pay the -142 price to fade Pimblett coming off his first UFC loss.
Saint-Denis has never won a decision in his career because he always finds the finish, but Pimblett should break that streak. He's never been knocked out, his cardio is elite, and he showed against Gaethje that he'll wade through damage and keep coming. That's why my method lean is Saint-Denis by decision at +400 — a small-stakes swing at a real outcome.
📊 Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett odds
Odds via DraftKings; subject to change.
| Benoit Saint-Denis | Paddy Pimblett | |
|---|---|---|
| -142 | Win outright | +120 |
| +320 | Win by KO/TKO | +450 |
| +320 | Win by submission | +600 |
| +400 | Win by points | +400 |
| Over: +124 | Over/Under 2.5 rounds | Under: -160 |
🤑 UFC 329 main card betting splits
Betting insights via BetMGM, last updated on Saturday, July 11.
| Fight / fighter | Odds | Bet % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Holloway vs. McGregor | |||
| 🇺🇸 Holloway | -275 | 15% | 24% |
| 🇮🇪 McGregor | +220 | 85% | 76% |
| Saint Denis vs. Pimblett | |||
| 🇫🇷 Saint Denis | -140 | 13% | 41% |
| 🏴 Pimblett | +115 | 87% | 59% |
| Sandhagen vs. Bautista | |||
| 🇺🇸 Sandhagen | -160 | 37% | 32% |
| 🇺🇸 Bautista | +130 | 63% | 68% |
| Royval vs. Kavanagh | |||
| 🇺🇸 Royval | +185 | 52% | 14% |
| 🏴 Kavanagh | -225 | 48% | 86% |
| McKinney vs. Green | |||
| 🇺🇸 McKinney | -115 | 25% | 46% |
| 🇺🇸 Green | -105 | 75% | 54% |
⚖️ Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett tale of the tape
| Benoit Saint-Denis | Paddy Pimblett | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 31 |
| 5-11 | Height | 5-10 |
| 155 lbs | Weight | 155 lbs |
| 73" | Reach | 73" |
| 17-3 | Record | 23-4 |
| 6 | Wins by KO | 7 |
| 11 | Wins by submission | 10 |
| First meeting | Head-to-head | First meeting |
📺 How to watch Benoit Saint-Denis vs. Paddy Pimblett: UFC 329
- Date: Saturday, July 11
- Time: 9 p.m. ET (main card)
- Location: T-Mobile Arena (Las Vegas)
- TV: Paramount+
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