Vikings vs. Falcons Predictions, Picks & Odds Week 9: Vikings Undervalued After Cousins’ Injury?
The Minnesota Vikings will be without the injured Kirk Cousins for the first time in 2023 during Week 9 as they face the Atlanta Falcons, and our predictions for the Vikings-Falcons matchup are formulated using the best NFL odds available.
The Minnesota Vikings have enjoyed a noteworthy three-game winning streak, the longest among NFC teams, thanks in large part to their formidable defense, which has allowed just 13.3 points per game during this impressive run. However, their winning streak faced a serious challenge in Week 8 when quarterback Kirk Cousins suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in a game against the Green Bay Packers. As a result, rookie quarterback Jaren Hall is set to make his debut start on Sunday, stepping in for the injured Cousins and facing a significant test as the new starting quarterback.
The Atlanta Falcons also played some of the second half without the quarterback who started the game for them as Desmond Ridder was evaluated for a concussion in the third quarter and did not return. Despite Ridder being cleared to play, Coach Arthur Smith has announced that the team will opt for Taylor Heinicke as the starting quarterback in Week 9. Following their 28-23 loss to the Tennessee Titans last week, the Falcons are currently holding a 4-4 record for the third consecutive season.
Check out our NFL Week 9 predictions and NFL best bets, along with our Week 9 NFL props to accompany our Vikings vs. Falcons NFL prediction (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Vikings vs. Falcons prediction
Minnesota Vikings +5 (-110 via Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Editor's note: This line has been shifting a fair bit and is now down to +3.5 at some of our best sportsbooks, though Caesars and bet365 are still featuring the Vikings at +4.
Most are writing off the Vikings entering this week as they are without their two most important offensive players — Cousins and wide receiver Justin Jefferson. However, there is something to be said about not having game tape on Hall in his debut, even if he is not in the team’s plans after the acquisition of Joshua Dobbs from the Arizona Cardinals.
Hall may not have Jefferson at his disposal, but rookie wideout Jordan Addison is the sixth player in the Super Bowl era with seven-plus touchdown catches in his first eight NFL games.
Meanwhile, the Vikings make opposing offenses work for everything they get. Minnesota ranks in the top five in yards per completion (9.7) despite being willing to let teams dink and dunk down the field (they rank 31st in completion rate allowed, 72.1%). Thus, Atlanta should have few explosive passing plays, as it runs the ball at a top-eight rate as it is. Per Sharp Football Analysis, Minnesota ranks third in explosive rushing yards per game allowed (27.9), so we have faith in the Vikings' defense to keep this low-scoring enough to stay within the number.
This is a four-star play, as we prefer the contrarian side, with bettors overreacting in the first game after Cousins’ injury and the fact that the Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last four games as favorites.
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Vikings vs. Falcons best odds
Caesars, bet365 (-110)
We are headed to Caesars or bet365 for our point spread wager as Vikings backers, as those are the only two of our best sports betting apps offering a line of +5. We would play this number down to +4.5 only if we were getting plus-money odds. The underdog has won four of the previous five games between these teams dating back to 2014.
Vikings vs. Falcons odds
Vikings vs. Falcons odds analysis
Four of our best sports betting sites (FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, and bet365) have seen their point spread increase from an opening number of -3.5 on Sunday night, while BetMGM has seen its number rise from -4 to -4.5. Early betting splits are 54/46 in favor of Atlanta.
FanDuel and BetMGM are the lone sportsbooks offering a total of 37, as all of our other best sportsbooks are a half-point higher at 37.5. The line has moved towards the Under at most sportsbooks from an opening number of 37.5 or 38.5, except for FanDuel, whose total jumped from 36.5 to 37.5 before landing back at 37. The early wagers are split 62/38 in support of the Under, which supports the trend of the Under cashing in each of Minnesota’s last six games.
Vikings vs. Falcons game info
- When: Sunday, Nov. 5 at 1:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA
- How to watch: FOX
- Weather: Indoors
Vikings-Falcons prediction made 11/1/2023 at 6:19 a.m. ET
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