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Texans vs. Titans Week 11 Picks: Is Tennessee in for a Letdown?

Texans vs. Titans Week 11 Picks: Is Tennessee in for a Letdown?
Tyrod Taylor will be playing his second game back from injury for the Houston Texans on Sunday. Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images/AFP.

Can the Houston Texans continue the trend of the NFL’s many surprising upsets over the last month, or will the Tennessee Titans keep flexing their muscles as the clear top club in the AFC South? We break down the Week 11 Texans versus Titans matchup with NFL picks and predictions.

The Week 11 matchup between the 1-8 Texans and 8-2 Titans seems like the AFC’s biggest mismatch. However, just nine points separated the two teams in 2020 over two games, and the Titans and Texans have split their last 12 head-to-head meetings.

The Texans have lost eight consecutive games since their Week 1 win over the Jaguars. They’re 4-5 against the spread and have failed to cover in their last four road games.

The Titans own the league’s longest current winning streak at six games, during which they’re averaging 30.5 points per contest. Tennessee is 7-3 ATS and has covered the spread in five of their last six games.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL’s Week 11 matchup between the Texans and the Titans (odds via DraftKings, and pick confidence is based on a one-to-five star scale).

Texans vs. Titans Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, November 21 at 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Nissan Stadium, Nashville, TN
Weather: 63 degrees, cloudy

Texans vs. Titans Odds Analysis

Most sportsbooks are offering the Texans at +10.5, while DraftKings is one of the few at +10. Houston has been a double-digit underdog on six occasions and is 2-4 ATS in those games.

The Over/Under also carries a half-point variance among sportsbooks, ranging from 44.5 to 45. This is the second game Tennessee has played with a total of 44.5 points or lower, and the Over cashed in the previous matchup.

Texans vs. Titans Picks

Texans +10 (-110) ★★
Over 44.5 (-110) ★★

SEE ALSO: Week 11 Parlay Picks

Texans vs. Titans Predictions

Texans +10 (-110)

There have been wild upsets that spring up out of nowhere seemingly every week for the past month in the NFL. Houston won't win outright here, but this clash could be closer than most predict.

This game is the perfect letdown spot for a Titans team that enters on a long winning streak. Tennessee has proven it can beat the league's best teams, as the club became the second in NFL history to win five consecutive games against playoff squads from the previous season.

The Titans are 7-0 against 2020 postseason teams. But after getting through a gauntlet with victories over the Bills, Chiefs, Colts, Rams, and Saints, will they have anything left for the lowly Texans?

Laying big numbers in division rivalries is always tricky, as the teams are so familiar with each other. Additionally, there's nowhere to go but up for Houston’s offense now with the Davis Mills era over and Tyrod Taylor healthy. The team scored eight points over three road games with Mills under center.

While the Texans only managed nine points away from home last week with Taylor starting, their offensive ceiling is much higher with his skill set. Houston scored 58 points over the first two weeks when Taylor was leading the unit.

Over 44.5 (-110)

Take the Over and piggyback on the Texans covering the large spread.

Tennessee’s offense has been explosive during its streak. Therefore, if Houston is going to be competitive, it's more likely the Texans' offense will need to keep pace instead of turning this game into a grind.

The Titans haven't gotten away from their identity after losing Derrick Henry to injury, as they're still a physical team that uses the run to set up the pass. If Houston can take better care of the football after committing four turnovers last week, the Texans should experience better offensive success against a Titans defense that may be looking ahead to New England in Week 12.

SEE ALSO: 3 Trends to Monitor for Week 11

Picks made 11/17/2021 at 8:36 p.m. ET