Falcons vs. Steelers Prediction: Week 1 Odds, Picks & Best Bet
My best Falcons vs. Steelers prediction locks in on the consequences of Atlanta’s third-string quarterback, Cooper Rush, having to take point under center on Sunday. Below, we’ll discuss how Rush’s insertion will affect the flow of the action – especially the scoring.
Sunday’s game is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET (FOX) from Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh.
🏈 Falcons vs. Steelers picks & prediction
See all of our experts' NFL picks for Week 1 based on the latest NFL odds.
| 🏈 Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
| Under 41.5 (-115 via DraftKings) | 2.3 → 2 | The total hasn’t moved down enough following the announcement that Cooper Rush will start Sunday. |
| Chris Boswell Over 7.5 Kicking Points (+100 via bet365) | 1 → 1 | With Rodgers not playing a snap in the preseason, expect some rust near the goal line that results in points for Boz. |
Total wagered: 3.3 units | Max profit: 3 units
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💰 Falcons vs. Steelers prediction & best bet
Under 41.5 (-115)
Atlanta’s quarterback tandem of Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. allowed the coaching staff to develop a playbook and construct an offensive line for left-handed quarterbacks. Unfortunately, they’re down to their third-string option, a righty, and it’s only Week 1.
That third-string option, Cooper Rush, was exceptionally bad in the preseason. Rush completed 62.5% of his throws for 254 yards (5.3 yards per attempt), one touchdown, and two interceptions. Rush was similarly bad for Baltimore last year, completing 65.4% of his throws for 303 yards (5.8), no scores, and four picks.
SBR Edge
Rush made two starts for Baltimore last year, across which the Ravens scored just 13 points. He played respectably for the Dallas Cowboys in 2024 but now takes on his former head coach. Mike McCarthy will have the lowdown on all the weaknesses he hasn’t yet shown on film.
The Spread Moved, But The Total Didn’t
With Tagovailoa out and Rush in, the spread moved from Pittsburgh -2.5 to Pittsburgh -5.5. No such adjustment happened to the total, which remains at 41.5. The market now implies that the Steelers will score 23.5 while the Falcons score 18. I’m skeptical of both sides’ abilities to reach those numbers.
Pittsburgh’s offense ranked a shaky 21st in yards per play last year (5.2) and 19th in offensive points per game (21.2). Personnel changes may help Pittsburgh squeeze a bit more out of Aaron Rodgers, but I don’t see Atlanta getting to 18, and I don’t see Pittsburgh making up the difference.
Score Prediction: Steelers 23, Falcons 10
📊 Falcons vs. Steelers odds
Falcons vs. Steelers opening odds
- Moneyline: Falcons +115 | Steelers -135
- Spread: Falcons +2.5 (-105) | Steelers -2.5 (-115)
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 (-115) | Under 41.5 (-105)
📺 How to watch Falcons vs. Steelers: Week 1
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 13
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
- TV: FOX
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