Ravens vs. Bears Week 11 Picks: Baltimore Covers if Lamar Jackson Plays

Sportsbook Review

Last Updated: November 17, 2021 12:06 PM EST • 2 min 59 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - NOVEMBER 11: Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens reacts after losing to the Miami Dolphins 22-10 in the game at Hard Rock Stadium on November 11, 2021 in Miami Gardens, Florida. Michael Reaves/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Michael Reaves / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The Baltimore Ravens look to improve to 3-0 against the NFC North this season when they visit the Chicago Bears on Sunday. We look at the top Ravens versus Bears picks for Week 11.

The Ravens (6-3) lead the AFC North, even after their Week 10 loss to the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football. The Bears (3-6) are ahead of only the winless Detroit Lions in the NFC North.

It will be only the seventh all-time meeting between the franchises. Chicago leads 4-2 and won the most recent game 27-24 in October 2017.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 11 matchup between the Ravens and Bears (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Ravens vs. Bears Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, November 21, 1 p.m. ETTV: CBSLocation: Soldier Field, Chicago, ILWeather: Cloudy, high of 42 degrees, 40 percent chance of rain

Ravens vs. Bears Odds Analysis

This line opened at Ravens -6; however, a couple of sportsbooks have dropped it as low as -4.5, despite nearly 60 percent of the spread handle being on Baltimore. The total of 45 hasn’t moved and the consensus (around 81 percent of the handle) is on the Under.

Ravens vs. Bears Picks

Ravens -4.5 (-115) ???Under 45 (-110) ???

Ravens vs. Bears Predictions

Ravens -4.5 (-115)

If you want to play with fire a bit and are planning to back the Ravens as I am, shop around for the 4.5 number. It dropped from the opener because Ravens quarterback and MVP candidate Lamar Jackson didn’t practice on Wednesday due to an illness.

Obviously, red flags are flying when we hear illness these days, but it’s reportedly not COVID-19 related (for now). This is the third time Jackson has missed practice due to an illness this season; however, the 2019 NFL MVP hasn’t missed a game. C Bradley Bozeman was also sent home on Wednesday due to a non-COVID illness, as we head into flu season.

Chicago should be about as healthy as possible this deep into a season coming off a Week 10 bye. The Bears have lost four straight games and head coach Matt Nagy is again a popular candidate to be the next coach fired – even if it happens right after Week 18.

The Bears are 2-2 at home but have been dominated in their last two games at Soldier Field. They lost by 10 points to the Green Bay Packers and by 11 to the San Francisco 49ers. Those were the only games in which Chicago was a home underdog.

Almost impossibly, the Bears are 0-7 straight up and against the spread following their last seven bye weeks. That predates Nagy to John Fox, and even Marc Trestman as head coach. Baltimore is 13-3 straight up in its last 16 games as a road favorite and has won those by an average margin of 13.0 points.

Under 45 (-110)

Again, I’m presuming Jackson will play but the Under would be almost a lock if he doesn’t. The Bears are expected to get star pass-rusher Khalil Mack back from a foot injury out of the bye after missing two games.

When the Ravens were upset in Miami on Thursday in Week 10, Jackson was blitzed on 52 percent of dropbacks, the highest among any QB in Week 10. It worked as Jackson averaged just 5.5 yards per pass attempt and got little going in the rush game with 39 yards. Baltimore's streak of 51 regular-season games with at least 14 points — the second-longest such streak in NFL history — came to an end. The Bears have allowed the fewest rushing yards per attempt to opposing quarterbacks at 2.03.

Chicago's 16.7 points per game ranks 29th in the league. Bears fans were very excited following the team’s 29-27 road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 9, though. For one, it was only the third time the team scored more than 20 points in a game this year. Second, rookie QB Justin Fields had his best game in throwing for 291 yards and a TD, and rushing for 45 yards on eight attempts.

However, the Bears had only six points through three quarters against Pittsburgh and one touchdown came from the special teams. The Chicago passing game ranks last by far at 144.1 yards per game and No. 1 receiver Allen Robinson has been nearly invisible with 30 catches for 339 yards and one TD through nine games.

The Under is 6-1 in Baltimore’s last seven road games and 6-2 in Chicago’s last eight games overall.