The New England Patriots' defense stepped up Thursday against the Pittsburgh Steelers' perpetually disappointing pass attack, preventing our pair of player props from cashing despite the Thursday Night Football game miraculously cashing the Over.
On Monday night, the Green Bay Packers and New York Giants kick off simultaneously with the Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins, marking the first time since Week 3 that there are two Monday Night Football games.
In addition to our NFL Week 14 predictions and NFL Week 14 player props and best bets, here are our best NFL player props for Week 14 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
NFL player props for Week 14
- Tyjae Spears Over 36.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Keaton Mitchell longest rush Over 14.5 yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
- Justin Herbert longest completion Over 35.5 yards (-113 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐ ❌
- Zack Moss to score a touchdown (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ ❌
- Mitchell Trubisky longest completion Over 29.5 yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐❌
- George Pickens longest reception Over 17.5 yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐❌
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NFL player props for Week 14: Monday Night Football
Tyjae Spears Over 36.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Spears burst on to the scene in Week 13 with a combined 88 yards (75 rushing, 13 receiving), with much of that coming after Derrick Henry (concussion) left in the fourth quarter. We're getting a massive discount on this total with Henry expected to play Monday, but I'm moving forward here regardless of Henry's status.
Spears accounted for 34 yards in the first half alone during Week 13, and he excelled in a lead role after Henry's late-game exit. That shouldn't come as a surprise, as his 5.0 yards per carry rank in the top 10 among NFL rushers (minimum 60 attempts), and his 46 targets rank third on the team despite an inconsistent snap share.
The rookie rusher has carved out a role for himself even as Henry continues to enjoy massive volume, and Monday's game script against the Miami Dolphins - who are two-touchdown favorites - should favor Spears in a significant way as a third-down back and late-game passing option.
If you're looking for a more significant return, bet365 is offering Spears at +215 to reach 50 yards and +825 to finish with 75-plus yards, as he did in Week 13. He's also +1100 to lead the game in rushing yards at FanDuel, which is an intriguing play considering the strength of Tennessee's run defense.
NFL player props for Week 14: Sunday
Keaton Mitchell longest rush Over 14.5 yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐ ✅
After seeing just two offensive snaps through the first eight weeks of the season, Mitchell exploded onto the scene for the Baltimore Ravens over the past month. And he deserves your attention in Week 14, too.
While the rookie rusher still hasn't seen double-digit carries in any week this season, he's made his touches count: Mitchell's 9.3 yards per carry rank second among all rushers with at least 10 attempts, and he's ripped off at least one 20-yard rush in each of his last four games.
Since Week 9, Mitchell leads the league in breakaway percentage (70.3%) and yards after contact (4.3) among those with 20-plus carries, and his five runs of 15-plus yards are tied for the fourth-most over that span. His workload has steadily increased every week, and he led all Ravens backs in carries (nine), rushing yards (64), yards per carry (7.1), and snap share (46%) ahead of a Week 13 bye.
All signs point to Mitchell carving out a larger role in this backfield, though he might not even need double-digit carries to find a crease against this Los Angeles Rams defense, which has struggled to contain explosive plays from opposing running backs.
Mitchell's volume is still too uncertain for me to bet the Over on his rushing yards prop, which can be found as low as 42.5 (-114 via FanDuel) among our best NFL prop betting sites, but he's been ripping off 15-yard runs all month long. He's a strong bet to break off another one on Sunday.
Zack Moss to score a touchdown (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐ ❌
I can't say I'm the biggest fan of Moss, who owns the second-worst broken tackle rate of any running back entering Week 14. But I do like his chances of scoring on Sunday.
The fourth-year back drew the start last week in place of Jonathan Taylor - who has already been ruled out for this game - and was rewarded with all 19 of the Indianapolis Colts' running back carries. His eight red-zone runs led all NFL backs in Week 13, and seven of them came near the goal line.
While he couldn't break through against a tough Tennessee Titans defensive line, he should have better luck against the Cincinnati Bengals, who have allowed eight touchdowns to running backs over their last seven games.
Even without a score last week, Moss has reached paydirt in four of his six starts and is dealing as short as -225 at BetMGM to do so again on Sunday. I wouldn't bet that number, but he has a better chance of scoring than this price implies.
Justin Herbert longest completion Over 35.5 yards (-113 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐ ❌
If you couldn't tell by now, I'm a sucker for longest-completion bets (and longest-play bets in general). And this matchup is simply too juicy to ignore.
While the Denver Broncos' defense is much improved since its embarrassing start to the season, Denver still ranks among the league leaders in explosive plays allowed. We saw that last week against the Houston Texans when rookie C.J. Stroud uncorked not one but two 50-yard bombs in the first quarter alone.
We can't expect such a barrage from Herbert, but the Los Angeles Chargers QB has a bazooka for a right arm and ranks in the top 10 in attempts (53) and completions (20) on throws at least 20 yards downfield. We like his chances of firing another missile on Sunday.
NFL player props for Week 14: Thursday Night Football
Mitchell Trubisky longest completion Over 29.5 yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐❌
While Thursday's matchup is easily one of the worst in recent memory, I am absolutely in love with this prop bet — and not just because I'm a lifelong Trubisky truther. (Sort of.)
Sure, the former No. 2 pick was pretty awful in his first four years as a starter, but he's become a fairly proficient deep-ball thrower since moving to a reserve role. Trubisky was the second-highest graded quarterback on throws 20-plus yards downfield last season, per PFF, and his average depth of target (10.0) ranked fifth among passers with at least 100 attempts.
This year, he ranks sixth in average depth of target (9.7) among QBs with at least 40 attempts. That appears to be by design: Trubisky said earlier this week that he's "trying to be aggressive" to help spark a sputtering offense, while interim coordinator Eddie Faulkner hinted that he'll call more shot plays Thursday than he would with Kenny Pickett under center.
It all adds up to a compelling bet on Trubisky to complete a 30-yard pass, which he did seven times in nine appearances last season. The Patriots have also surrendered a completion of 30-plus yards in seven of 12 games this season, and they allowed a pass of at least 27 yards in each of the other five games.
Our Andrew Brennan also has us covered with more Mitch Trubisky player props.
George Pickens longest reception Over 17.5 yards (-114 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐❌
Much of the logic fueling our Trubisky bet is at play here with Pickens, who seems like a prime candidate to benefit from his QB's aggressive approach.
Since he entered the league in 2022, the former second-round pick has caught at least one pass of 20-plus yards in 19 of 29 games (65.5%). He's done that eight times in his 12 starts this season and ranks second among all receivers in yards per catch (17.0).
Pickens was targeted on the Steelers' first three pass plays on Sunday, which included a 38-yard catch on the opening drive. He also hauled in a 25-yard strike from Trubisky in the third quarter, and he was on the receiving end of Trubisky's longest completion (22 yards) in Week 8 when the backup QB started the entire second half in relief of Pickett.
I wouldn't mind betting Pickens to finish Over 38.5 receiving yards (-109 via Caesars), a total he's cleared in four of his last six games, but I'd much rather bet on the second-year wideout to make at least one big play as he's done all season long.
If you're looking for a prop bet Thursday at longer odds, I would also put a small wager on Pickens to record a catch of at least 30 yards (+320 via bet365), which he's done six times through his first 12 games.
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