The New England Patriots visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football in a battle of backup quarterbacks to kick off NFL Week 14, and we offer our top Mitch Trubisky player props based on the best NFL odds.
Whether it was Kenny Pickett (who has been ruled out with an ankle injury) squaring off with Mac Jones or backups Mitch Trubisky vs. Bailey Zappe, this Thursday Night Football contest was always destined to be a dud.
However, in what should be a dumpster fire, there are still plenty of interesting bets. We went prop hunting to uncover value on the Steelers' starting quarterback this week.
In conjunction with our Patriots vs. Steelers prediction, here are our best Mitch Trubisky NFL player prop predictions for the Patriots vs. Steelers Week 14 Thursday Night Football matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Our C Jackson Cowart also charted every NFL game this season to determine how to bet backup QBs, and the Under isn't automatically a lock when reserves take the field.
Mitch Trubisky NFL player prop predictions for Week 14
- Mitch Trubisky Over 173.5 passing yards (-115 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Mitch Trubisky Under 0.5 passing touchdowns (+175 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
- Mitch Trubisky + Bailey Zappe Over 343.5 passing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
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Mitch Trubisky player props
Mitch Trubisky Over 173.5 passing yards (-115 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Trubisky stepped in for the injured Kenny Pickett in Week 13 and performed admirably in the loss to the Arizona Cardinals. Sure, much of the damage he did was in garbage time, but he still completed 11 of 17 passes for 117 yards in just over one half of play.
Now, the Patriots' defense is superior to the Cardinals', but this is an extremely low number that opposing quarterbacks have cleared in 10 of 12 games against New England this season.
Steelers running back Najee Harris is questionable for Thursday's game after missing Tuesday's walkthrough with a knee injury. If Harris is forced to sit out or at least be limited in the contest, Trubisky will have to throw the ball more.
Even with Harris expected to play, Trubisky's average passing yardage projection across eight projection models is 192.15. The low end of those projections is 170, only four yards fewer than he'd need to clear this total. Meanwhile, the high end is 225.9, providing a nice ceiling.
We're getting value on this prop thanks to the low total listed by BetRivers. All of our other best sports betting apps list Trubisky's passing yardage total at 182.5, with only FanDuel coming in at 180.5.
This is my most confident play when targeting Trubisky props on Thursday night.
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Patriots vs. Steelers bonus codes
Mitch Trubisky Under 0.5 passing touchdowns (+175 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
This is certainly a riskier bet, as the +175 odds at bet365 indicate, but we're getting a bit of value thanks to the number.
Pinnacle, one of the most respected trading teams in sports betting, also has the Under at +165, and the Under got hit there earlier Wednesday when it was at +176. That tells us that +165 is closer to a fair price for this prop, so we're getting some value playing the Under at these odds.
It's not a huge edge (only 4% positive expected value), but those are rare in prime-time games.
The Patriots just held Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers to only two field goals, and they've limited three quarterbacks to zero touchdown passes this season (additionally, six quarterbacks have managed only one touchdown pass in a game against New England).
We're getting a good price, and it helps that Trubisky stinks.
Our Philip Wood discusses how he expects Trubisky's opposite to struggle in our Patriots vs. Steelers player props.
Mitch Trubisky + Bailey Zappe Over 343.5 passing yards (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐
Both projected starting quarterbacks are bad, but they're not quite this terrible.
I like this prop mostly because of the number we're getting at BetMGM. The only other one of our best sportsbooks offering this combined passing yardage prop is bet365, and it has the number set at 360.5. The only risk with betting this prop at BetMGM vs. bet365 is that the latter lists it as "total passing yards" without naming any players, so there's no danger if either starting quarterback is benched.
However, Zappe managed to play the entire game for the Patriots in Week 13 despite completing just 13 of 25 passes for only 141 yards. It appears it would take a minor miracle - in the worst way possible - for Mac Jones to be given another shot this season, so let's use that to our advantage.
By combining Trubisky's and Zappe's average passing yardage projections, we get 386.78, well Over this total.
Does this feel good? Just like everything else involving this monstrosity of a game, no. But it doesn't matter how it feels if it makes us money.
Philip Wood goes more in depth on what he expects from the Patriots' signal-caller in our Bailey Zappe player props.
Mitch Trubisky player prop picks made 12/6/2023 at 11 a.m. ET.
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