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Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots talks to Bailey Zappe during the fourth quarter against the Cleveland Browns, and we offer our top Patriots vs. Broncos prediction based on the best NFL odds.
Head coach Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots talks to Bailey Zappe during the fourth quarter against the Cleveland Browns. Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images via AFP.

The New England Patriots visit the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday Night Football to open the NFL Week 14 slate, as we make our best Bailey Zappe NFL player prop predictions based on the best NFL odds.

The Los Angeles Chargers shut out the New England Patriots last week, but QB Bailey Zappe is expected to lead the offense again this week. Against L.A., he completed 13 of 25 passes for 141 yards against one of the worst secondaries in football.  

This game features the season's lowest total, and, consequently, expectations for Zappe are low. Will he exceed them, or could Bill Belichick bench him in favor of Mac Jones during the game?

To accompany our Patriots vs. Steelers prediction and Mitch Trubisky player props, here are our best Bailey Zappe NFL player prop predictions for the Patriots vs. Steelers Week 14 matchup (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Our C Jackson Cowart also charted every NFL game this season to determine how to bet backup QBs, and the Under isn't always a lock with reserves in play.

Bailey Zappe NFL player prop predictions for Week 13

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Bailey Zappe player props

Bailey Zappe Under 157.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐

This number is getting dangerously close to unplayable. Earlier in the week, this number was as high as 161.5 at four of our best sports betting apps. Now, the number is sitting at 157.5. For -110, we’d play this Under, but any price more expensive than that probably isn’t worth it with a number so low.

With that being said, there is no reason to expect Zappe to get near this number. In five games this season, he’s thrown for just 299 yards. Last week, he played the entire game against the Los Angeles Chargers. The weather was bad, but that doesn’t excuse the fact that he only threw for 141 yards.

This week, the Patriots will likely lean on their run game, as their defense keeps this game close against Mitch Trubisky. I discuss this more in my Patriots vs. Steelers NFL player props. That will take opportunities away from Zappe in the passing game. And if the Steelers start to pull away, there’s a good chance Zappe will be benched for Mac Jones. After all, the Patriots have made numerous in-game quarterback changes this season.

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Bailey Zappe longest completion Under 30.5 yards (-115 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Zappe’s longest completion this season is 27 yards. As a team, the Patriots only have six passes of more than 30 yards this season. Their longest was 58 yards against the New York Jets in Week 3, but that was one of just two passes of Over 40 yards this season.

The Steelers rank 30th in the league in pass yards allowed per completion. Opponents are averaging 11.1 passing yards per completion this season. However, the Patriots are fifth-worst in the league in yards per completion. And in a matchup of two units that aren’t good, we give the advantage to the more experienced defense.

Bailey Zappe Under 0.5 interceptions (+150 via bet365) ⭐⭐

Zappe has thrown the ball 64 times this season, and he’s thrown just two interceptions. Last week, he threw the ball 25 times but wasn’t intercepted once. 

The Steelers are averaging one interception per game this season. That’s tied for fifth-best in the league. If Jones was starting this game, we’d be taking his Over. However, Zappe is much better at protecting the ball, and the Patriots should be able to keep this close enough that he doesn’t have to force throws. The expensive price for Zappe’s Over seems unreasonable.

Shop around for this Under. bet365 is currently offering the best price, but the rest of our best sports betting sites are not far behind.

Bailey Zappe player prop picks made 12/6/2023 at 12:21 p.m. ET.

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