Thursday Night Football features two of the most prolific NFL teams of this century, and we look at all of the angles for this prime-time affair with our Patriots vs. Steelers predictions based on the best NFL odds.
The New England Patriots have endured one of the franchise's most miserable campaigns in decades, and it hit a low point in Week 13. New England fell 6-0 to the Los Angeles Chargers for their fifth straight loss and 10th of the season.
That contest marked the second time New England has been blanked this year. It's the first time in franchise history that the Patriots have been shut out at least twice in the same season. And the team's five-game losing streak is also the first it's faced since Bill Belichick became head coach in 2000.
Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Steelers may sit at 7-5 but they're also coming off an embarrassing defeat and have faced plenty of struggles this season. They lost in Week 13 to the lowly Arizona Cardinals, during which starting quarterback Kenny Pickett suffered an ankle injury.
Pickett will be sidelined for the foreseeable future, which means backup Mitch Trubisky will step in for the start on Thursday. We looked further into his numbers with our Mitch Trubisky player props.
To go along with our Patriots vs. Steelers player props, here is our best Patriots vs. Steelers prediction and our NFL picks (odds via our best NFL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Patriots vs. Steelers prediction: Thursday Night Football
Under 32 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
Not only do the Patriots have the worst record in the AFC, but their 2-10 ATS record is the worst in the league, and they are now tied for the most ATS losses in the Belichick era (the 2010 Patriots went 6-10 ATS).
However, instead of backing the Steelers to cover on Thursday night, our focus is on the Under, considering that New England has made history of the wrong kind with its offensive ineptitude.
The Patriots are the first team in the Super Bowl era to lose three consecutive games while allowing 10 or fewer points in each, and another such loss this week would tie the 1938 Chicago Cardinals for the most all-time. New England’s 6-0 loss last week was especially historic since it was Los Angeles’s first franchise win when scoring six or fewer points. Our Philip Wood does not see things improving much for New England in his Bailey Zappe player props.
Meanwhile, Arizona’s defense entered last week ranked 31st in scoring (26.8 points per game allowed) and had allowed an average of 174 rushing yards per game over the previous three weeks. However, the Cardinals’ 10 points allowed to Pittsburgh was their fewest since 2021, and the Steelers ran for just 130 yards and have been outgained in 10 of 12 games this season.
Despite the low total, this is still a three-star play, as New England only allowed six points to the Chargers while Los Angeles crossed midfield on six possessions, and Pittsburgh is just 2-for-8 in its last eight red zone trips.
In addition, Pickett — who had started the team's first 12 games under center — left last week with an ankle injury. Pittsburgh’s offensive ceiling is lowered, considering it has not topped 16 points in three consecutive weeks.
The low total does not deter us, as games with O/Us of 37 or fewer are 23-5-1 to the Under since 2020.
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Patriots vs. Steelers best odds
As Under backers on a projected total this low, we need every point we can get, so DraftKings is our go-to shop for this wager, as the only sportsbook offering an O/U as high as 32.
Those looking to wager on this game in a different capacity may be intrigued by the Under in the first 30 minutes, as first-half Unders are 25-20-1 on Thursday Night Football since 2021. If you go that route, shop at our best sports betting apps to get the best price.
Patriots vs. Steelers odds for Thursday Night Football
Patriots vs. Steelers odds analysis
Even though this projected total opened at one of the lowest of the entire season, any movement to this point has gone towards the Under, as FanDuel has gone from 32.5 to 31.5 overnight, Caesars from 32 to 31, and DraftKings from 33 to 32 overnight. The early betting splits at our best sports betting sites are aligned with this movement, as 60% of the wagers are on the Under.
Caesars differs widely from the rest of the top sportsbooks regarding its point spread offering, as it is the only shop at Steelers -5.5 while the rest are in unison at -6.5. DraftKings and FanDuel opened at -6.5 and lowered to -5.5 before rebounding to their original numbers overnight, while Caesars got to -5.5 from a high of -6.5. Sixty-one percent of the early wagers have backed the Steelers.
Thursday Night Football game info
- When: Thursday, Dec. 7 at 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where: Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA
- How to watch: PRIME VIDEO
- Weather: 44 degrees, 17% chance of precipitation, wind 11-mph SSW
Patriots-Steelers prediction made 12/4/2023 at 6:39 a.m. ET
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