Panthers vs. Saints Week 17 Picks: New Orleans Will Keep Playoff Hopes Alive

The Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints square off in a divisional clash on Sunday. Read on for our Panthers-Saints picks.

Sunday’s Panthers-Saints matchup from the Superdome in Week 17 originally was slated to kick off at 1 p.m. ET, but it's been shifted to 4:25 p.m.

Carolina will go for the season sweep after beating visiting New Orleans 26-7 in Week 2. That’s back when we thought the Panthers might be good and Sam Darnold outplayed Jameis Winston.

Here are my Panthers-Saints picks and predictions for their Week 17 matchup (odds via DraftKings, and pick confidence is based on a one-to-five star scale).

Panthers vs. Saints Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Jan. 2, 4:25 p.m. ETTV: FOXLocation: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LAWeather: Indoors

Panthers vs. Saints Odds Analysis

This line opened at -7 across the board, but it's currently New Orleans -6.5, which is great because I refuse to give seven points and am planning to back the Saints. Get this line early because it could rise above -7 if the Saints announce that quarterback Taysom Hill is returning.

The total has dropped a half-point at most books to 39. It closed at 45 for the first matchup between these teams.

Panthers vs. Saints Picks

Saints -6.5 (-110) ???Under 39 (-110) ???

SEE ALSO: Week 17 Odds, Lines, and Picks

Panthers vs. Saints Predictions

Saints -6.5 (-110)

This is the play if Hill starts, pushing rookie Ian Book back to the bench. Hill is miles better than Book and Trevor Siemian.

Hill and Siemian missed Monday’s 20-3 home loss to the Dolphins because they were among the Saints' 22 players on the COVID-19 list. Book was horrendous while going 12-of-20 passing for 135 yards with two picks and eight sacks taken. At least Hill can avoid sacks with his feet.

Beyond the Saints hopefully getting healthy at quarterback, the Panthers' lack of motivation is another reason to back New Orleans. Carolina is on a five-game skid, and head coach Matt Rhule could be fired on Black Monday.

Even with Monday’s loss, the Saints can still make the playoffs as a wild-card team while winning out and getting some help, and they'll therefore remain motivated.

New Orleans is 7-2 against the spread over its past nine following an ATS loss. Carolina is 0-5 ATS in its past five overall.

Under 39 (-110)

I generally don’t take the Under on a total in the 30s, but I don’t see a path to the Over here barring some special teams/defensive touchdowns.

While the Saints’ offense still leaves plenty to desired with Hill under center, their defense is terrific. New Orleans held Miami to 20 points and just 259 yards on Monday, even while missing linebackers Demario Davis, Kwon Alexander, and Kaden Elliss, and safety Malcolm Jenkins.

Defensive ends Cam Jordan and Marcus Davenport haven’t played much together this season, but they make up one of the NFL’s best pass-rushing duos. Jordan registered two sacks Monday, and Davenport notched a forced fumble. They also combined for four quarterback hits and 11 tackles. Carolina's depleted/weak offensive line won't be able to stop them. The Saints also boast the NFL's best defensive rush EPA (+47.6) since Week 9, and they've been allowing 3.87 yards per rush while forcing three fumbles and making 40 tackles for loss.

It doesn't matter whether it’s Cam Newton, PJ Walker, or Sam Darnold at quarterback for the Panthers (Editor's note: Darnold will start), as none of them pose a threat. The Panthers are averaging 14.4 points over their five-game skid, and the team's offense has been even more inept during Carolina's past three contests after losing Christian McCaffrey for the season.

Carolina's defense could be without two of its best players in defensive end Brian Burns and linebacker Shaq Thompson after they both landed on the COVID-19 list early this week. But a weak Saints offense won't be able to take advantage.

This feels like a 23-13 Saints victory. The Under is 4-1 during the Panthers’ past five games against an NFC South opponent. And it’s 5-0 in the Saints’ past five overall.

SEE ALSO: All picks and odds. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Panthers-Saints picks made 12/28/2021 at 5:46 p.m. ET.