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Panthers vs. Dolphins Week 12 Picks: Miami Good Value as Underdogs

Panthers vs. Dolphins Week 12 Picks: Miami Good Value as Underdogs
Emmanuel Ogbah of the Miami Dolphins reacts after the New York Jets miss a field goal. Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images via AFP.

Carolina travels south to Miami as slight favorites looking to keep pace in the NFC. We’re breaking down the betting matchup with our Panthers and Dolphins picks.

Both the Carolina Panthers and Miami Dolphins were supposed to break out in 2021 after encouraging seasons in 2020. The Panthers started hot but sputtered as Sam Darnold crashed back to Earth, and now it’s the Cam Newton-era part two. For Miami, they’re trying to salvage whatever they can before another drama-filled offseason awaits.

Both teams have been difficult to peg as far as betting lines. Carolina has gone 5-6 against the spread and Miami has almost mirrored them with a 5-5-1 ATS record. While the Dolphins are a longshot to make the postseason, the Panthers are very much in the hunt for that final Wild Card spot in the NFC.

Here are my picks and predictions for the NFL Week 12 matchup between the Panthers and the Dolphins (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Panthers vs. Dolphins Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, Nov. 28, 1 p.m. ET
TV: FOX
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Weather: 79 degrees, sunny

Panthers vs. Dolphins Odds Analysis

This line has moved more in favor of the Panthers after opening as 1-point favorites. With variance between -1 and -2.5 across different books, you can find some nice value if you're willing to shop around. The Moneyline may be a safer route even if you're giving up some return, though, since these teams are so evenly matched.

The total has dropped quite a bit for an NFL game. Opening at 43.5, 41.5 is close to the standard at most books now. This is completely fair, as I'll touch on below.

Panthers vs. Dolphins Betting Picks

Dolphins ML (+110) ★★★
Under 41.5 (-110) ★★★

SEE ALSO: Buccaneers vs. Colts Week 12 Picks

Panthers vs. Dolphins Betting Predictions

Dolphins ML (+110)

There have been long stretches of miserable play for both Carolina and Miami as the quarterback positions have been in flux. The hope now is for Cam Newton to stabilize the Panthers' shaky passing game that is currently averaging just 203.2 yards per game. For Miami, they would love for Tua Tagovailoa to run away with the title of franchise star. Anything less will cause a collapse for each franchise.

The Panthers have a long way to go in this battle as far as playing well. Sure, Miami's defense has been ghastly compared to the solid play of the Panthers — the Dolphins ranked 29th in ypg — but they can grind out an offensive game plan and force turnovers enough to win. Plus we're getting a great return by taking them straight up.

Under 41.5 (-110)

The only way this game goes Over even this low total is if a special team or defensive touchdown happens. The Panthers have the top-ranked pass defense by ypg and second in total yards. Miami doesn't have the offensive line or weapons to break big plays, so they have to grind games out.

Even if Newton plays well, Carolina has become more of an efficient attack over big play hunters. The final should be in the 20-17 range, giving us some comfort.

Picks made on 11/25/2021 at 1:21 a.m. ET

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