In this article, we examine the opening lines for Week 4 of the NFL schedule and discuss where the point spreads and game totals may head as the week progresses.
We are seeing early movement in the Week 4 lines due to some key injuries suffered in Week 3. The Los Angeles Chargers lost several important members of their team to injury, including tackle Rashawn Slater and pass-rusher Joey Bosa. The New England Patriots will be without quarterback Mac Jones for several weeks, which has resulted in a quick adjustment in the spread against the Green Bay Packers.
When it comes to sports betting, it is all about properly timing when you place your bet in order to ensure that you get the best possible odds. Buying the best of the number will give you greater control and flexibility.
The following are the NFL spread and Over/Under lines for Week 4 and where we think the odds and lines will move throughout the week. Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, PointsBet, and Caesars Sportsbook.
NFL Week 4 Odds and Lines
Spread: Bengals -3
This is going to be an exciting point spread to follow since the Miami Dolphins just defeated the Buffalo Bills at home. There has also been a lot of public support for the Cincinnati Bengals this season despite their slow start, but I expect Dolphins backers should move this opening line away from the key number of three points.
The total opened at 47.5, and this is still the number we are seeing across the board, with the exception of DraftKings, who has moved the number to 47 with increased juice on the Over.
Vikings vs. Saints
Spread: Vikings -2.5
New Orleans is starting to adjust to life without Sean Payton and a team that was popular among bettors prior to the season is beginning to fade in the betting markets. At Caesars, the Vikings are now 3-point favorites after opening as 2-point favorites. If you are considering betting on the Vikings, I would recommend buying this early before the key number of three points is reached across the board.
While the total opened at 43.5, most sportsbooks have moved to 44, with the exception of FanDuel, which has already reached 44.5. Circa remains at 43.5, so this suggests that the total may fall back to the opening number.
Titans vs. Colts
Spread: Colts -3
The Indianapolis Colts defeated the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday, and it appears that everyone is eager to get back on the Colts bandwagon. If you are hoping to get a Colts -2.5, you may have to settle for the 3-point spread as it is trending in the other direction. Within the next few days, we can expect this line to move to Colts -3.5.
There has already been a downward trend in the total since it opened at 43.5. Circa has moved their line to 42.5, so FanDuel and DraftKings should follow suit very soon. Even though the Colts won on Sunday, the offense led by Matt Ryan remains suspect at best.
Bears vs. Giants
Spread: Giants -3
The New York Giants are trading as 3-point favorites with only DraftKings posting the Giants at -2.5. For the last two weeks, we have seen the Giants opening line bet in the opposite direction. If I were to back the Giants in Week 4, I would hold out for a 2 or 2.5.
This total opened at 39.5 and FanDuel has moved it to 40, but if the Giants offense struggles on Monday Night Football, I predict this total will decline from the opening number of 39.5. The Bears are 2-1, but Justin Fields and the offense have been unable to get any offense going through the air. The health of Bears running back David Montgomery will also have an impact on the total.
Bills vs. Ravens
Spread: Bills -3
This spread will be heavily influenced by the Bills' injury reports throughout the week. A total of five defensive starters were absent from the Bills' game against Miami. I would recommend waiting before betting on the Bills as I believe this number will move off of the key number of three and you will see the Bills trading at -2.5 as the week progresses.
The last two Baltimore Ravens games have soared Over the total, so it is not surprising to see such a high number of 53.5 on the opener with the Bills in town. It appears that the initial movement was toward the Under, as the line moved from 53.5 to 53, but I believe that as time progresses, this number will increase.
Chargers vs. Texans
Spread: Chargers -6
With quarterback Justin Herbert, receiver Keenan Allen, corner J.C. Jackson, Slater, and Bosa's health in doubt, we have already seen the Chargers' line move off of the key number of seven points. Considering the initial injury reports for the Chargers, I do not see this line returning there. As the week progresses, I expect this line to continue moving in favor of the Houston Texans.
The total opened at 45.5, but with the injuries to Allen, Slater, and Herbert, I believe it is only a matter of time before we see the 45.5 begin to decline. It's not like QB Davis Mills and the Texans offense have been lighting up the scoreboard either.
Seahawks vs. Lions
Spread: Lions -6
This is an aggressive line for the Detroit Lions, who will likely be without star running back D'Andre Swift, and we also saw wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown injure his ankle in Week 3, although he returned to the game. I would be interested in grabbing the +6.5 (-107) that is available on the Seahawks at PointsBet immediately if I were a Seattle backer.
Most of the Week 4 totals have remained the same from the opening numbers, but this is not one of them. The Over has received immediate support, driving the total from 48.5 on the opening line to as high as 50.5 at PointsBet.
Jets vs. Steelers
Spread: Steelers -3.5
After opening as 4-point favorites against the New York Jets, the Pittsburgh Steelers have already moved off of the key number of four, and now stand at 3.5-point favorites. The possibility that QB Zach Wilson will make his season debut for the Jets will have an impact on the betting numbers throughout the week.
A game between QBs Joe Flacco and Mitch Trubisky may put people to sleep faster than the game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Denver Broncos on Sunday Night Football. The total opened at 41.5 and is sitting there across the board, with neither side showing an increase in juice.
Jaguars vs. Eagles
Spread: Eagles -6.5
Doug Pederson returns to Philadelphia following an impressive victory over the Chargers, and this line has already shifted in the Jacksonville Jaguars' favor. The Eagles opened as 7-point favorites, but the line quickly moved off of the key number to make the Eagles 6.5-point favorites. The Jaguars are still available at FanDuel at +7, but we should see that disappear very quickly.
With Eagles QB Jalen Hurts slinging it and Trevor Lawrence's 38-point performance for the Jaguars against the Chargers, we have already seen this total bet up to 48.5 from 46.5.
Commanders vs. Cowboys
Spread: Cowboys -3
The Dallas Cowboys opened as 3-point favorites, and the spread remains at this number. There are still several factors that could cause this spread to move off of the key number of three points. The Cowboys have yet to play on Monday Night Football against the Giants and there are also rumblings that Dak Prescott may be back in time for Week 4.
Like the spread, any announcement regarding the health of Prescott could begin to swing the total. While the Commanders' defense is terrible, the real question is whether Washington will be able to score against the Cowboys' defense.
Browns vs. Falcons
Spread: Browns -2.5
The Cleveland Browns opened as 3-point favorites, but we have already seen this line move away from the key number and towards the Atlanta Falcons. It is certain that the Falcons will receive some public money in Week 4 as they are now 3-0 against the spread. As the week progresses, I believe that this line will continue to move towards the Falcons, even though people are pumping the tires of a Browns offense led by Jacoby Brissett.
We have already seen the total bet up to 48 after opening at 46.5. Based on how easily the Seahawks moved the ball against the Falcons defense, I expect this total to rise in the coming days. Also, we should see a lot more coverage of Brissett in the media this week, as the Browns offense is ranked third in the NFL in terms of EPA with veteran QB at the helm.
Cardinals vs. Panthers
Spread: Panthers -1
The Carolina Panthers opened as 1-point favorites against the Arizona Cardinals, but I believe that this spread is too low and we will begin to see it bet higher in the next few days. By the time we reach kickoff, I would not be surprised if the line closes closer to Panthers -2.
The Panthers' offense has struggled to find its stride with Baker Mayfield under center, but Mayfield will have the advantage of facing the Cardinals' 31st-ranked defense in terms of DVOA. As the line moved from 44.5 to 44, the initial move was to the Under. However, I anticipate this total to rise in the coming days.
Broncos vs. Raiders
Spread: Raiders -2
The Las Vegas Raiders opened as 2-point favorites, but some shops, such as FanDuel, are already offering Raiders -1. With the Denver Broncos visiting this week, you may not see the Josh McDaniels' narrative completely affect the market this week. It is likely that bettors will be interested in fading the Raiders, but they will be wary of the Broncos.
As Russell Wilson has been cooking some of the worst meals we have ever seen early on, and Derek Carr will spend the week being dragged through mud, it is not surprising that this total is trending towards the Under. We are currently seeing a total of 44.5 across the board, down from 45.5 when the line opened.
Patriots vs. Packers
Spread: Packers -10.5
The Green Bay Packers opened as 9-point favorites, but with the Patriots' starting quarterback expected to miss several weeks with a severe high ankle sprain, the spread has already climbed over the key number of 10 points. My expectation is that we will not begin to see buyback on the Patriots until this line reaches Packers -13.
In a similar manner to the spread, we are seeing movement in the total due to news of Jones' injury. The total opened at 42.5 and has already fallen three points to 39.5.
Chiefs vs. Buccaneers
Spread: Chiefs -2.5
The Chiefs opened as 2-point favorites, but the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense has been hampered by a number of injuries, so this spread has moved in favor of the Chiefs to make them 2.5-point favorites. Ultimately, I believe this spread will reach Chiefs -3, and it will only be after we hear good news regarding the Buccaneers' injuries that the number will shift back in favor of the Buccaneers.
Against the Packers, the Buccaneers offense struggled due to the absence of so many key weapons, which is why the initial money has lowered the total from 46.5 to 44. The Buccaneers will have wideout Mike Evans back and it appears that Julio Jones will also be available. Although there has already been a drop in the total, I believe that this number will increase as the week progresses.
Rams vs. 49ers
Spread: Niners -2.5
It appears that Jimmy Garoppolo running out of the back of the end zone against the Broncos like Dan Orlovsky has not scared away any 49ers money in Week 4. The Niners opened as 2-point favorites against the Rams but are now trading as 2.5-point favorites. Since the Niners are already showing increased juice at -2.5, you should consider buying the Niners before they reach the crucial number of three points.
Garoppolo's performance against the Broncos has not deterred bettors from backing the Niners to cover the spread, but it has caused some concern with the total. Bettors quickly dropped the total three points to 42.5 from 45.5.
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