NFL Odds, Lines Week 10: Colts Backers Inspired by Jeff Saturday
Is new head coach Jeff Saturday capable of turning around the Indianapolis Colts' season? This is a peek at the NFL odds and lines for Week 10 and an analysis of where the point spreads and totals could move.
In their first NFL game together, Saturday, offensive play-caller Parks Frazier, and quarterback Sam Ehlinger sound like a trio you would want to bet against, but is that actually what is occurring in the market? It might surprise you to see what is happening with the point spread for the Colts in Week 10 as they take on the Las Vegas Raiders.
The following are the NFL spread and Over/Under lines for Week 10, and where we think the lines will move throughout the week (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook, PointsBet, and Caesars Sportsbook).
All noted look-ahead spread and totals are via DraftKings as of Monday, Nov. 7, at 5:30 p.m.
Check out our NFL Week 10 odds and lines, against-the-spread picks, and three-leg parlay!
NFL Week 10 Odds and Lines
Falcons vs. Panthers
Spread: Falcons -2.5
It took overtime for the Atlanta Falcons to beat the Carolina Panthers 37-34 in Week 8, and both of these teams lost in Week 9. The spread moved from Atlanta -1.5 to -2.5 early in the week, but we have not seen any movement since Panthers QB PJ Walker was named the starter. There is a strong possibility that this line will close at Falcons -3 due to increased juice on the Falcons side of the spread.
As noted, these teams combined for 71 points in Week 8, and this total climbed a point from the look-ahead number of 41.5 to 42.5 early in the week. Although the initial move was to the Over, with bad weather expected for Thursday's game, the total has been adjusted from 43.5 to 41.5.
Seahawks vs. Buccaneers
Spread: Buccaneers -3
With a record of 6-3, the Seattle Seahawks continue to surprise everyone. The Seahawks have been covering machines against the spread so far this season; however, there are concerns about jet lag for the Seahawks since they were on the road last week in Arizona and will now be playing the Buccaneers in Munich, Germany. The Buccaneers are receiving the bulk of the action in the markets as they were favored by 1.5 points early in the week and have since been bet up to 3-point favorites.
There’s already been a 2-point drop in this total from the look-ahead line, and the Under hit in four of Tampa Bay’s past five games. It’s also worth noting the Seahawks have the further travel of the two teams to the Munich game, and the Buccaneers remain among the top defenses in the league. The Tampa Bay offense has averaged just 14.75 points per game across the past four weeks, which aligns with this number dropping. If this total dips into the key range of 43-44, I would expect to see some buyback on the Over.
Vikings vs. Bills
Spread: Bills -3.5
After losing to the New York Jets in Week 9, the Buffalo Bills were trading as 8.5-point favorites over the Minnesota Vikings for Week 10. The big move in this line came as a result of the news that Bills QB Josh Allen will likely miss the game due to an elbow injury. With this news making its way around the industry, we saw the spread drop from Bills -8.5 to Bills -3.5.
Allen's injury is not the only factor contributing to a significant decline in this total. In the forecast for Sunday's game between the Bills and the Vikings, cold temperatures, wind, and snow are expected. Combined with the possibility of Case Keenum starting and bad weather, this total has been reduced from 48.5 to 43.5.
Lions vs. Bears
Spread: Bears -2.5
The Chicago Bears have surrendered 84 points across their past two games and are now laying 2.5 points against a divisional rival. Chicago quarterback Justin Fields is coming off a statement performance, and the Detroit Lions are also among the worst teams in the league. Still, I don’t anticipate people flocking to the window to back the Bears after the spread climbed from the look-ahead number of -1.5 to -2.5. If Chicago does jump to the key number of -3, I would suspect support for the Lions to follow.
These are two of the worst statistical defenses in the league, and with Fields' improved play over the past three weeks, this total climbed from a look-ahead line of 45.5 to 48.5. While Detroit has also flashed on offense throughout the year, the Lions have just five touchdowns across their past four games. The 48-point total isn’t near the key number of 51 or the range of 43-44, so it could fluctuate over the week. Still, I don’t anticipate it approaching the key numbers.
Jaguars vs. Chiefs
Spread: Chiefs -9.5
There wasn’t any movement to this spread from the look-ahead number, so I view it as an accurate opener. The Kansas City Chiefs needed overtime to beat the Tennessee Titans as double-digit favorites on Sunday Night Football in Week 9. Additionally, the Jacksonville Jaguars snapped a five-game losing skid by overcoming a 17-0 deficit to beat the Las Vegas Raiders 27-20 on Sunday. With that in mind, after the Chiefs were bet up against the then 5-2 Titans last week, I expect similar support for KC against the 3-6 Jags while trading below the key number of 10.
As the total opened at 49, the Over immediately gained support, resulting in a line increase to 50.5. With 51 as a key number, I would expect there to be a buyback on the Under if it climbs above that line.
Browns vs. Dolphins
Spread: Dolphins -3.5
The Miami Dolphins covered the spread in only one of their past five games, and the Cleveland Browns are coming off a bye following an impressive 32-13 win over the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football in Week 8. After Miami allowed the Chicago Bears to hang around Sunday, this spread dropping from a look-ahead line of -5.5 to -4 is indicative of the Dolphins' struggles on defense. The spread continues to move in favor of the Browns, with the Dolphins now trading as 3.5-point favorites.
It’s crystal clear the Miami defense is a vulnerable unit after allowing the Lions and Bears to post a combined 59 points over the past two weeks. Additionally, the Browns haven’t been much better with the ninth-most points against per game. Both teams have been efficient on offense, too, so this total climbing from a look-ahead line of 46.5 isn’t surprising. It’s also worth noting the Over received 76% of the betting handle via both BetMGM and DraftKings in the Dolphins-Bears matchup in Week 9. I expect more steam on the Over with Cleveland coming off a bye, and the Miami offense rolling.
Texans vs. Giants
Spread: Giants -5
Across the board, we are seeing a wide variety of spreads available, with the New York Giants ranging from 4- to 5.5-point favorites. The question then arises, where will this number settle? In my opinion, the answer will be Giants -5, as the markets continue to show a lot of support for the Houston Texans.
The total opened at 38.5 and has climbed 2 points toward the Over to 40.5. There is no indication that it will settle at 40.5, as we have seen several sportsbooks move it to 41.
Saints vs. Steelers
Spread: Saints -1.5
The New Orleans Saints opened as 2.5-point favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers, but have since been adjusted to 1.5-point favorites. As I make the Saints a 1-point favorite over the Steelers in Week 10, this move did not surprise me at all. I believe there is a strong possibility that we will see this spread close at Saints -1.
Before winning 24-0 over the Raiders in Week 8, there had been an average of 66.5 points across the Saints' previous four games. However, the Over hit in only one of the past four games for the Steelers, and that was because the Philadelphia Eagles put up 35 points against them in Week 8. This total has seen little to no movement throughout the week, and I expect that trend to continue into Sunday.
Broncos vs. Titans
Spread: Titans -2.5
The Denver Broncos are 0-3 on the road this season, and the Titans took the Chiefs to overtime on Sunday Night Football as double-digit underdogs. While one would expect the market to support the Titans, it is actually backing the Broncos, driving this line off of the key number of Titans -3, which we saw earlier in the week. I make the Titans 1.5-point favorites over the Broncos, so I wouldn't be surprised if this line continues to move toward Denver.
The Under cashed in each of the past five games for the Titans and each of the past four for the Broncos. The look-ahead total was 40, so the 3.5-point dip aligns with the recent trends for both teams. Add that both defenses have impressed this season, and Tennessee uses the most time per play on offense in the league, and Over money might be scarce without another drop to this number.
Colts vs. Raiders
Spread: Raiders -4.5
Who in their right mind would back the Colts? They just hired a head coach who went 3-7 coaching high school football and have a brand new offensive play-caller in Parks Frazier. The short answer is, apparently, a large number of people. After trading as 6.5-point favorites earlier this week, the Raiders are now 4.5-point favorites. As far as I am concerned, this is more of a knock on Raiders coach Josh McDaniels than it is support for Saturday, Ehlinger and the Colts.
Given how poorly the Colts have played on offense the past three weeks, I don’t see where the Over support will come from with Indy playing its second consecutive road game and third in four weeks. Unless bettors are envisioning a monster showing from the Las Vegas offense, I don’t expect there to be enough money on the Over for this total to stay above the key range of 40-41.
Cowboys vs. Packers
Spread: Cowboys -4.5
The Dallas Cowboys started the week as 5-point favorites, which was enough for bettors to take another chance with the Green Bay Packers. As the week progressed, the spread has moved from Cowboys -5 to Cowboys -4.5. It is unlikely that we will see this line touch Cowboys -5 again, since that number is a tad too high for the Cowboys to be trading at.
The Lions boast one of the worst statistical defenses in the NFL, and Green Bay lost to them 16-9 in Week 9. Obviously, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers throwing two interceptions in the red zone – and three total – was monumental in the lack of offense, but it still impacted this total. The look-ahead number was 44.5, and I would expect there to be some Over money moving this number up into the key range of 43-44.
Cardinals vs. Rams
Spread: Rams -1.5
The Los Angeles Rams lost consecutive games and scored just 27 total points against the San Francisco 49ers and Buccaneers out of their Week 7 bye. Obviously, oddsmakers are viewing the Arizona Cardinals as a significant drop in class in comparison to the 49ers and Bucs. Arizona has lost four of its past five games, and the Rams beat the Cards 20-12 in Arizona in Week 3. The evaluation definitely has merit, but I don’t anticipate Los Angeles having the betting support needed for this line to stay at Rams -3. Especially considering this will be the second meeting of the season between the divisional rivals.
This is the total I’m most interested in following this week. The Over hit in each of the past four games for Arizona, whereas the total has gone over the number in only two of Los Angeles’ eight games this season. As noted, the Rams topped the Cards 20-12 on the road in Week 3, and the total for that matchup was 48.5. It's still possible for the Rams to have some positive offensive regression, but the market doesn't seem to be betting on it this week, as the line has dropped from 43.5 to 40.5. There is a strong likelihood that the decline in the total and the spread is a direct result of Matthew Stafford being placed in concussion protocol.
Chargers vs. 49ers
Spread: 49ers -7
This spread has moved more than any other from the look-ahead number before Week 9. San Francisco was trading as a 4-point favorite. The Los Angeles Chargers secured a comeback 20-17 win over the Falcons on the road in Week 9, and they pulled it off without multiple key starters on both sides of the ball. With San Francisco coming off its bye week, I expect the few sportsbooks still hanging a 49ers -6.5 spread will move to the key number of -7. The 49ers arguably played their best game of the season in Week 8, and they could also have a few key starters returning to the lineup.
With this spread above the key range of 43-44 and below the key number of 51, there is a lot of wiggle room for where it will go next. The line has declined from the look-ahead total of 47.5, and has continued to decrease throughout the week. The injury reports for both teams will determine where this number heads as Sunday approaches.
Commanders vs. Eagles
Spread: Eagles -11
The Washington Commanders have won three of their past four games and hung around with the Vikings to earn a push in their 20-17 loss in Week 9. The undefeated Eagles are definitely a significant uptick in class, and this spread hasn’t moved from the look-ahead number. Philadelphia also topped Washington 24-8 on the road in Week 3. I expect there to be more betting support for the Eagles at home, and that this spread will climb leading into the Monday Night Football showdown. The Eagles are also coming off a mini-bye after winning 29-17 over the Texans on Thursday Night Football in Week 9.
This will be another interesting total to watch this week. Philadelphia has gone Over the number in four of its past five games, whereas the Under hit in six of Washington’s past seven contests. This will also be the highest total in a Washington game since the two teams met in Week 3. The total for that meeting was 47.5. As Monday Night Football approaches, I anticipate that this total will dip into the crucial range of 43-44 points and remain there.