Falcons vs. Panthers Picks, Predictions Week 10: Will Result be Different in NFC South Rematch?
Just two weeks after the Atlanta Falcons topped the Carolina Panthers in a thrilling overtime battle, the NFC South rivals meet again to kick off the NFL's Week 10. Atlanta remains tied for first place in the underwhelming division, while Carolina has fallen to 2-7 with major questions at quarterback. Check out our top Falcons-Panthers NFL picks below.
The 4-5 Falcons have a losing record through nine games for the fifth consecutive season, yet that record is good enough to be tied for first place in the NFC South. They face a Panthers team that is off to its worst start (2-7) since 2012. Carolina is 0-6 in games outside the division this year and is 0-4 on the road for the first time since 2011.
Atlanta survived the Week 8 meeting between the two rivals 37-34 in overtime after Carolina's kicking blunders. Carolina's Eddy Pineiro became the second kicker in the previous 20 seasons to miss a go-ahead extra point in the last 30 seconds of regulation and a potential game-winning field goal in overtime, per ESPN Stats & Info.
Here are our Falcons-Panthers NFL picks for Week 10 (odds via Caesars Sportsbook and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out our Thursday Night Football prop picks, along with our NFL Week 10 odds and lines analysis, against-the-spread picks power rankings, and all our top picks and predictions.
Falcons vs. Panthers Game Info
Date: Thursday, Nov. 10, 8:15 p.m. ET
TV: Prime Video
Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC
Weather: 69 degrees, 16% chance of precipitation, 11-mph NE wind
Falcons vs. Panthers Odds
Falcons vs. Panthers Odds Analysis
The Falcons opened as consensus 1.5-point favorites but that has grown to 3 points as of Wednesday morning. While 81% of the bets wagered against the spread have been on the Falcons, 55% of the handle (money) is on the Panthers.
The Over/Under has grown from the consensus opening line of 40 to 43.5 as of Wednesday morning. Similarly to the spread, bettors seem to be split, as 57% of the tickets back the Over but 58% of the cash is on the Under.
Falcons vs. Panthers Picks
Falcons vs. Panthers ATS Pick
Falcons -2.5 (-110) ★★★
Carolina is coming off a 42-21 drubbing at the hands of the Cincinnati Bengals in a game that didn't even feel as close as the final score indicates. While we usually do not overreact to a bad loss week-to-week, there's more than enough from that subpar performance to be concerned about with the Panthers on a short week.
The Panthers allowed Bengals running back Joe Mixon to become the sixth player in the Super Bowl era with 200-plus scrimmage yards and five touchdowns in a game. That was especially surprising given that Carolina had allowed just seven rushing touchdowns entering last week. It is fair to wonder what the Panthers' motivation level was against an AFC contender.
Atlanta head coach Arthur Smith is very trustworthy in games with low point spreads, as he is 7-2-1 ATS in games where the line is between +3 and -3.
While FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook offer a line of Atlanta -3, as Falcons backers, we are heading to Caesars to make this bet. There is significantly more value at the -2.5 than the -3 at other competing sportsbooks.
Falcons vs. Panthers O/U Pick
Under 43.5 (-110) ★★★
While these two teams combined for 71 points two weeks ago, we are backing the Under in this Thursday night contest. The Under is 30-22 on Thursday night over the previous four seasons.
Seeing the opposition two times in three weeks favors the defense. There is not enough time to instill an entirely new offensive game plan in that span, especially when coming into the game off a short week. In addition, Carolina has a bit of a quarterback conundrum on its hands this week. P.J. Walker threw for just nine yards in the first half against Cincinnati, which prompted interim coach Steve Wilks to use Baker Mayfield in the second half.
Now there is chatter about getting Sam Darnold involved when he is healthy. You know what they say, if you have three quarterbacks, you have zero quarterbacks, and we expect the uncertainty at the quarterback position to limit Carolina's offensive ceiling, even with Walker announced as the Week 10 starter.
Falcons vs. Panthers Prop Pick
Panthers team total Under 20.5 (-115) ★★★
The Falcons are coming off their third game this season with 200-plus rushing yards. Given that quarterback Marcus Mariota has fewer than 150 passing yards in five of the last six games, we would expect another run-heavy attack from Atlanta on Thursday.
That should lead to sustained drives and limited possessions. Considering Carolina is 5-23 ATS in its last 28 games, we would not expect its offense to light it up on a short week.
Where to Bet on Falcons vs. Panthers Picks
Falcons-Panthers picks made 11/8/2022 at 5:35 a.m. ET.
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