NFL Against the Spread Picks Power Rankings: Our Top 10 ATS Bets and Predictions for Week 10
The San Francisco 49ers host the Los Angeles Chargers at Levi's Stadium in the Sunday Night Football matchup, and the spread is climbing in the 49ers' favor. San Francisco headlines our NFL power rankings looking at our favorite against-the-spread picks for Week 10.
After double-digit favorites went 0-3 against the spread in Week 9, I was hesitant about going to the well with too much chalk in these power rankings. However, trusting your numbers is key, and there are also multiple instances where outlier lines are presenting early value.
The following are the power rankings of my favorite against-the-spread picks for Week 10 of the NFL season (odds via our top-rated sportsbooks; lines as of Monday, Nov. 7 at 3 p.m. ET).
Check out our odds and lines analysis for the NFL's Week 10.
NFL Against the Spread Picks Power Rankings
10. Bills -6.5 (via PointsBet) vs. Vikings
This is a bounce-back spot for the Buffalo Bills at home against the potentially overachieving Minnesota Vikings. It will be the second consecutive road game for Minny, and I have the Bills as 9-point favorites. Additionally, considering the look-ahead line of Bills -9.5, I also believe there’s been an overreaction by oddsmakers to the Bills' Week 9 loss to the New York Jets.
*Following the news of the elbow injury Bills quarterback Josh Allen sustained during the loss to the Jets, I’m significantly less confident in Buffalo. Veteran signal-caller Case Keenum won’t sink the ship, and Allen might still start Sunday against the Vikings. As a result, I’m not removing the Bills entirely, but they drop from second in these rankings to 10th in response to Allen’s uncertainty for Sunday. The spread has dropped a point across the board, too.
9. Eagles -10.5 (via PointsBet) vs. Commanders
The Philadelphia Eagles benefit from the extra rest and preparation time of playing the Thursday game in Week 9, and they also handled the Washington Commanders 24-8 on the road in Week 3. This is a home game in prime time for the Eagles, and I don’t anticipate Washington putting enough points on the board to hang around. I’m also expecting this spread to climb over the course of the week.
8. Panthers +3 (via PointsBet) vs. Falcons
This is the second meeting in three weeks between the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons after the Falcons eked out a 37-34 overtime win over the Panthers in Week 8. Now, the Falcons – with arguably the worst defense in the league and on a short week – are laying points on the road. Sign me up for the Panthers at home for Thursday Night Football. I might be out on a limb here, but I do expect Carolina quarterback Baker Mayfield to start and play well enough for Carolina to cover the field-goal spread.
*The Panthers are going to start quarterback P.J. Walker for a fifth consecutive game this week. I’m not nearly as confident in Carolina with Walker under center, especially after Mayfield’s improved play in garbage time against the Bengals in Week 9. Still, this spread hasn’t moved and I like the better defense receiving points at home on the short week.
7. Steelers +3 (via FanDuel Sportsbook) vs. Saints
It’s definitely risky backing the Pittsburgh Steelers with the New Orleans Saints yet to play their Week 9 game against the Baltimore Ravens. Still, I like Pittsburgh off a bye and hosting New Orleans on a short week. The Steelers have faced the hardest schedule in the league by DVOA, and I expect head coach Mike Tomlin to have them prepared for the Saints.
6. Cardinals +3 (via BetMGM) at Rams
This is the second meeting of the division rivals this season, and the Los Angeles Rams have scored only 27 points through their past two games following a Week 7 bye. With the offense struggling, I’m not confident in Los Angeles laying a field goal to the Arizona Cardinals. I have the Rams pegged at -1.5, and that might even be generous. I expect the Cards to score enough to make this game interesting.
5. Chiefs -9.5 (via Caesars Sportsbook) vs. Jaguars
I have these two teams ranked with a much wider gap than this spread, so I’m happy to see the Kansas City Chiefs under the key number of 10. Additionally, the vig is already tilted toward KC at most sportsbooks, so I expect the Jacksonville Jaguars to be trading at +10 at some point this week. I love the Jags, but they faced the easiest schedule to date by DVOA. This is a step up in class, and I give the Chiefs another slight boost at Arrowhead Stadium.
4. Broncos +3 (via DraftKings Sportsbook) at Titans
Admittedly, this is a hold-your-nose selection. However, I like the spot for the Denver Broncos coming off their bye week. The Tennessee Titans lost in overtime to the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, so there’s potential for a bit of a letdown showing in Week 10. Additionally, for all the faults of the Denver offense, the Broncos have been an elite defense. Denver has also lost by more than a field goal only once all season.
3. Cowboys -5 (via PointsBet) at Packers
I’m expecting to land closing-line value here, as BetMGM has already moved the Dallas Cowboys to 5.5-point favorites. The Green Bay Packers are banged up on both sides of the football, and the Cowboys are coming off a bye and boast an elite defense. I also think oddsmakers and the betting community are still overvaluing Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers – I know I was for too long.
2. Raiders -6 (via Caesars) vs. Colts
The Las Vegas Raiders aren’t going to be trading as low as -6 for long this week. Multiple sportsbooks have already moved this spread to -6.5. I also don’t envision it staying below the key number of -7 leading into Sunday’s kickoff, either. The Raiders definitely have all kinds of flaws, but the Indianapolis Colts just made a coaching change and have scored just 29 points during their active three-game losing streak.
1. 49ers -6.5 (via PointsBet) vs. Chargers
PointsBet is the only one of our top-rated sportsbooks still hanging the -6.5 spread for the 49ers, and I consider it an incredibly solid bet this week. The Chargers couldn’t pull away from the Falcons during their 20-17 Week 9 victory, and now they have to travel back across the country to face the rested 49ers off their bye. It’ll be worth monitoring the injury news, but San Francisco could also have a number of impact starters back in action Sunday.
Where to Bet on the NFL
NFL against-the-spread picks made 11/7/2022 at 3 p.m. ET.
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