Browns vs. Dolphins Picks, Predictions Week 10: Tagovailoa Set to Strengthen MVP Case
The Miami Dolphins are 6-0 when quarterback Tua Tagovailoa plays the entire game, and they host the Cleveland Browns off their bye in the Week 10 showdown at Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday. Read on for our top Browns-Dolphins NFL picks.
This game has the potential to be a back-and-forth shootout. Both teams enter with top-five ranks in offensive DVOA per Football Outsiders, and offense grades per Pro Football Focus. Additionally, neither team has shown similar success on the other side of the ball.
Cleveland has surrendered the ninth-most points per game in the league while ranking 24th in defensive DVOA and 25th in defense grade per PFF. Miami respectively ranks 25th, 27th and 16th.
The Browns preceded their Week 9 bye with a statement 32-13 win over the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football in Week 8. So, with Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa trading as low as +800 to win the NFL MVP Award via DraftKings Sportsbook, this game has the potential to be among the most exciting of the week.
Here are our Browns Dolphins NFL picks for Week 10 (odds via DraftKings and PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Check out all of our NFL picks for Week 10, along with our best bets and touchdown scorer props.
Browns vs. Dolphins Game Info
Date: Sunday, Nov. 13, 1 p.m. ET
TV: CBS
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, FL
Weather: 81 degrees, 0% chance of precipitation, 5-mph N wind
Browns vs. Dolphins Odds
Browns vs. Dolphins Odds Analysis
The look-ahead lines at DraftKings had the Dolphins as 5.5-point favorites, and the total at 46.5 with significant movement in both markets since. The lines reopened at Miami -4 and 48.5, following Week 9.
Despite the majority of bettors backing the Dolphins, the spread has dipped to -3.5. The Over has also received the majority of wagers, which aligns with the climb to 49.5.
Browns vs. Dolphins Picks
Browns vs. Dolphins ATS Pick
Dolphins -3.5 (-107) ★★★
As noted, this spread has already moved 2 points in Cleveland’s direction from the look-ahead line of Dolphins -5.5. I chalk it up as a bit of an overreaction to Miami failing to contain Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields during his historic showing last week, as well as the Detroit Lions putting 27 points on the board against the Dolphins in Week 8.
Miami has been sound against opposing rushing attacks with the seventh-best rush defense DVOA and fourth-highest grade in run defense per PFF. The secondary is vulnerable, and while I don’t have a lot of faith in the Dolphins shutting down the Browns entirely, I don’t think the defense has been as strong as the sum of its parts. Miami has also faced the 12th toughest schedule by offensive DVOA and the fifth hardest overall.
As long as the Miami defense comes up with a few stops, I’m confident in the offense putting enough points on the board to cover this diminished spread.
Browns vs. Dolphins O/U Pick
Under 49.5 (-107) ★★★
With the added steam pushing this total up 3 points from the look-ahead number of 46.5, I like the Under. Another week of practice for new Dolphins edge rusher Bradley Chubb is a plus, and Browns cornerback Denzel Ward returned to practice this week after missing the past three games due to a concussion.
The extra rest and preparation for the Browns off their bye week should have them better suited to slow down the Dolphins, too. I also think the Cleveland offense has overachieved after facing the seventh-easiest strength of schedule per PFF.
Browns vs. Dolphins Prop Pick
Chubb Over 8.5 receiving yards (-110) ★★★★
While star Browns running back Nick Chubb has just 10 receptions for 70 yards through eight games this season, he's also cleared this 8.5-yard total four times. Additionally, I expect the Browns to find creative ways to utilize Chubb with Miami proving to be a sound run defense to this point of the season.
Additionally, the Dolphins have surrendered the seventh-most receiving yards and most yards per target in the league to opposing running backs this season. It’s a clear area of weakness.
I have Chubb projected for 11.5 receiving yards, and he might only need a single reception to clear this line of 8.5.
Where to Bet on Browns vs. Dolphins Picks
Browns-Dolphins picks made 11/10/2022 at 1 p.m. ET.
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